scholarly journals Kemajuan Penelitian Pemodelan Prediksi Demam Berdarah Dengue menggunakan Faktor Iklim di Indonesia : A Systematic Literature Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 231-246
Author(s):  
Mamenun Mamenun ◽  
Yonny Koesmaryono ◽  
Rini Hidayati ◽  
Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan ◽  
Bambang Dwi Dasanto
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Relationship Analysis ◽  
Climate Parameters

Since discovered firstly in 1968, number of cases and areas affected by DHF in Indonesia has been increased. In 2019, dengue cases have found in all provinces within 481 districts/cities (94%). Our research is conducted to analyze the current status and gaps of climate relationship and its modeling to DHF in Indonesia. A systematic searching of literature was carried out through the search engine PubMed and Google Scholar. The method includes determining questions, publication period, keywords, and criteria of literature. Thirty-two literatures have been selected according to the criteria. The study area has covered all provinces in Java, Bali and West Nusa Tenggara, several locations in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, while the eastern region has still limited study. Spatial and temporal variations were used predominantly at the city with monthly data scale. Relationship analysis between DHF cases and climate/non-climate has been used the Spearman’s and Pearson’s correlation. DHF prediction modeling involves dominant climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature, humidity and non climate parameters using linear/non-linear relationships and static/dynamic models. Climate model development needs to be improved with a narrower spatial resolution and shorter time scale, elevation, mobilization, regional climate, and climate change scenarios to get appropriate model on a specific location.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre de Arruda LYRA ◽  
Sin Chan CHOU ◽  
Gilvan de Oliveira SAMPAIO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Forest Type ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Amazon Region ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

scholarly journals Future Thermal Assessment for the Phenological Development of Potato [Solanum tuberosum (L.)] in Cuba

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Alexis Augusto Hernández-Mansilla ◽  
Francisco Estrada-Porrúa ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Graciela Lucía Binimelis de Raga
Keyword(s):  
Solanum Tuberosum ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Solanum Tuberosum L ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Thermal Index ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Biological Development

Current changes in climate conditions due to global warming affect the phenological behavior of economically important cultivable plant species, with consequences for the food security of many countries, particularly in small vulnerable islands. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the thermal viability of Solanum tuberosum (L.) through the behavior of the Thermal Index of Biological Development (ITDB) of two cultivation areas in Cuba under different climate change scenarios. For the analysis, we elaborated bioclimatic scenarios by calculating the ITDB through a grounded and parameterized stochastic function based on the thermal values established for the phenological development of the species. We used the mean temperature values from the period 1980 to 2010 (historical reference period) of the Meteorological Stations: 78320 “Güira de Melena” and 78346 “Venezuela”, located at the western and central of Cuba respectively. We also used modeled data from RCP 2.6 scenarios; 4.5 and 8.5 from the PRECIS-CARIBE Regional Climate Model, which used global outputs from the ECHAM5 MCG for the period 2010 to 2100. As result, the scenarios showed that the annual average ITDB ranges from 0.7 to 0.8, which indicates that until 2010 there were temporary spaces with favorable thermal conditions for the species, but not for the period from 2010 to 2100 in RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In these scenarios, there was a progressive decrease in the indicator that warned of a marked loss of Viability of S. tuberosum, reduction of the time-space to cultivate this species (particularly the month of April is the most inappropriate for the ripening of the tuber). These results showed that Cuba requires the establishment of an adaptation program with adjustments in the sowing and production calendar, the use of short-cycle varieties of less than 120 days, the management of genotypes adaptable to high temperatures, and the application of “Agriculture Climate Smart”, to reduce risks in food safety.

scholarly journals The biomass burning aerosol influence on precipitation over the Central Amazon: an observational study

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 18879-18904 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. Gonçalves ◽  
L. A. T. Machado ◽  
P.-E. Kirstetter
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Droplet Size Distribution ◽  
Particulate Material ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Aggregate Information ◽  
Wet Scavenging ◽  
Biomass Burning Aerosol ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract. Understanding the aerosol influence on clouds and precipitation is an important key to reduce uncertainties in simulations of climate change scenarios with regards to deforestation fires. Here, we associate rainfall characteristics obtained by an S-Band radar in the Amazon with in situ measurements of biomass burning aerosols for the entire year of 2009. The most important results were obtained during the dry semester (July–December). The results indicate that the aerosol influence on precipitating systems is modulated by the atmospheric instability degree. For stable atmospheres, the higher the aerosol concentration, the lower the precipitation over the region. On the other hand, for unstable cases, higher concentrations of particulate material are associated with more precipitation, elevated presence of ice and larger rain cells, which suggests an association with long lived systems. The results presented were statistically significant. However, due to the limitation imposed by the dataset used, some important features such as wet scavenging and droplet size distribution need further clarification. Regional climate model simulations in addition with new field campaigns could aggregate information to the aerosol/precipitation relationship.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and land-use dynamics on water resources: The case of the Lobo River watershed: Central-Western Côte d'Ivoire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berenger Koffi ◽  
Zilé Alex Kouadio ◽  
Affoué Berthe Yao ◽  
Kouakou Hervé Kouassi ◽  
Martin Sanchez Angulo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Meeting growing water needs in a context of increasing scarcity of resources due to climate change and changes in land use is a major challenge for developing countries in the coming years. The watershed of the Lobo river in Nibéhibé does not escape this dilemma. The water retention of the Lobo River and its watershed play an important role in the subsistence of the inhabitants of the region. However, the watershed is currently subject to strong human pressures mainly associated with the constant increase in human population and intensification of agricultural activities. The main objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Lobo River watershed at Nibéhibé in the central-western part of Côte d'Ivoire. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were established using the regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre atmospheric model 4) and the flows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU with respect to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCA4 regional model predicts an increase of 1.27° C; 2.58° C in the horizon 2021-2040 and 2051-2070 in mean annual temperature. Rainfall would also experience a significant average annual decrease of about 6.51% and 11.15% over the period 2021-2040 and 2041-2070. As for the evolution of flows, the Cequeau model predicts a decrease in the runoff and infiltration of water on the horizon 2021-2040 and an increase in evapotranspiration over time according to the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the model predicts an increase in runoff at the expense of a decrease in REE and infiltration at the horizon 2040-2070 according to scenario RCP8.5. It appears from this study that surface flows and infiltrations, which constitute the water resources available to meet the water needs of the basin's populations, will be the most affected. The results obtained in this study are important and could contribute to guide decision making for sustainable water resource management.</p>

Climate change effects on forest floor interception in woody Cerrado ecosystem

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Livia Rosalem ◽  
Miriam Gerrits-Coenders ◽  
Jamil A. A. Anache ◽  
Julian S. Sone ◽  
Dimaghi Schwamback ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Floor ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Fluxes ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Water Partitioning ◽  
Evaporative Flux

<p>The interception process is an important redistributor of water fluxes, which can considerably affect terrestrial evaporation. Not only the canopy intercepts water, but also from the forest floor significant amounts of water vapor return to the atmosphere. Remaining forests are important areas to evaluate the possible effects of climate change on the water partitioning process. Despite the hydrologic and ecosystem services offered by Cerrado forests, the interception process, as well as climate change threats on the evaporative flux of such forests, are still unknown. This study attempts to anticipate the possible impacts on the forest floor interception process in Cerrado stricto sensu considering future scenarios of climate change. To accomplish this, we used data of field monitoring from June 2017 to February 2020 in an undisturbed Cerrado s.s. forest in São Paulo State, Brazil. We calibrated and validated an improved version of the Rutter interception model (Rutter et al., 1971), which includes interception from the forest floor. Projected climate change scenarios were obtained from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, Brazil) from 2006 to 2099 with 5km spatial resolution generated by Eta-HadGEM2-ES regional climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. The results indicate increased rainfall and decreased potential evaporation in the decade 2041-2060. By the Rutter model, the total interception increased for this period (2041-2060) associated with decreased forest floor evaporation. During the first (2006-2020) and the last (2081-2099) decades, the predictions suggest an increase of 2.4% on the average annual percentage of forest floor evaporation, also an increase of minimum annual interception percentages (from 17.1% to 18.7%). Thus, our results demonstrate the relevance of forest floor to the interception process and suggest that it can be even more relevant in the future due to the climate changes.</p>

The effect of horizontal diffusion parameterization in convection-permitting REMO-NH simulations over Germany

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Frisius ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
Armelle Reca Remedio ◽  
Kevin Sieck ◽  
Claas Teichmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Time Integration ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Convective Activity ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Horizontal Diffusion ◽  
Convective Cells

<p><span>Moving towards convection permitting simulations up to few kilometers scale are emerging solutions to the challenge and complexities in simulating different convective phenomena especially over mountainous regions. In this study we execute sensitivity experiments with the non-hydrostatic regional climate model REMO-NH at convection permitting resolution (~3km). We use this model in three setups where different parameterization schemes for horizontal diffusion are tested. In the first setup “DIFF2” we utilize the standard 2</span><sup><span>nd</span></sup><span> order diffusion while the second setup “DIFF4” applies 4</span><sup><span>th</span></sup><span> order diffusion. The higher order has a smaller impact on larger scales so that the atmospheric fields exhibit more details, especially in regions with high convective activity. In the third setup “TURB3D”, REMO-NH runs with a new 3D Smagorinsky-type turbulence scheme instead of the artificial diffusion schemes. Though turbulent horizontal diffusion is of second order in this setup, it incorporates a spatially and temporally varying exchange coefficient so that flows with little deformation remain unaffected. The domain of the simulations driven with EURO-CORDEX boundary data covers Germany and the time integration spans the year 2006. </span></p><p><span>Selected cases reveal a better representation of convective elements in DIFF4 and TURB3D when compared with DIFF2. We cannot compare these individual cases directly to observations since REMO-NH is not a reanalysis but a climate model. However, the spatial precipitation fields deduced from DWD radar data have characteristics which are more similar to DIFF4 and TURB3D than to DIFF2. More details are resolved in DIFF4 and TURB3D since the diffusion mainly act at the smallest spatial scales resolved by the model. DIFF2 smoothes convective activity drastically so that it appears in the form of unrealistically wide convective cells. On the other hand, the statistics of precipitation (seasonal average, standard deviation and 95th percentile) show a better agreement with observations in the simulation DIFF2 and TURB3D. TURB3D appears to be the best compromise regarding the simulation of precipitations fields. However, TURB3D exhibits a warm bias in the 2m temperature field in autumn and winter. Further model development may help to overcome this issue.</span></p>

scholarly journals Influence of biomass aerosol on precipitation over the Central Amazon: an observational study

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 6789-6800 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. Gonçalves ◽  
L. A. T. Machado ◽  
P.-E. Kirstetter
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Biomass Burning Aerosol ◽  
Radar Measurements ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Ice Content

Abstract. Understanding the influence of biomass burning aerosol on clouds and precipitation in the Amazon is key to reducing uncertainties in simulations of climate change scenarios with regard to deforestation fires. Here, we associate rainfall characteristics obtained from an S-band radar in the Amazon with in situ measurements of biomass burning aerosol for the entire year of 2009. The most important results were obtained during the dry season (July–December). The results indicate that the influence of aerosol on precipitating systems is modulated by the atmospheric degree of instability. For less unstable atmospheres, the higher the aerosol concentration is, the lower the precipitation is over the region. In contrast, for more unstable cases, higher concentrations of black carbon are associated with greater precipitation, increased ice content, and larger rain cells; this finding suggests an association with long-lived systems. The results presented are statistically significant. However, due to limitations imposed by the available data set, important features, such as the contribution of each mechanism to the rainfall suppression, need further investigation. Regional climate model simulations with aircraft and radar measurements would help clarify these questions.

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