scholarly journals Stochastic and Artificial Intelligence Models for Climate Change Investigation and Groundwater Level Assessment of Gaza Coastal Aquifer (Palestine)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Al-Najjar ◽  
Gokmen Ceribasi ◽  
Emrah Dogan ◽  
Khalid Qahman ◽  
Mazen Abualtayef ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stochastic Models ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Coastal Aquifer ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
The Impact

The Gaza coastal aquifer is a critical resource for the supply of water to the Gaza Strip and continues to be depleted as a result of the effects of climate change and the anthropogenic activities. Therefore, this study tends to investigate the impact of climate change and groundwater withdrawal practices on the oscillation of the Gaza Coastal Aquifer water table level by recruiting the power of the stochastic time-series models in exemplifying the autoregression of data and by leveraging the efficiency of the artificial neural networks (ANNs) in expressing the nonlinear regression between the different meteorological and hydrological factors. The climate stochastic models reveal that the Gaza Strip region will face a decline in the precipitation by -5.2% and an increase in the temperature by +1˚C in the timeframe of 2020-2040. The potential evaporation and the sunshine period will increase by about 111 mm and 5 hours, respectively during the next 20 years. However, the atmosphere is predicted to be drier where the relative humidity will fall by a trend of -8% in 20 years. The stochastic models developed for the groundwater abstraction time series show that the groundwater pumping processes would increase by about 55 % by 2040, compared to the 124 million cubic meters of groundwater that was withdrawn in 2020. The stochastic model of structure (2,1,5) (4,1,2)12 was defined to extend the time series of the groundwater level up to 2040. In order to form an integrated stochastic-ANN model, the combination of the time series of climate factors, groundwater abstraction and groundwater level were emerged into a one hidden layer ANN of 20-neurons. The performance of the model was high in term of training and in forecasting the future where the correlation coefficient (r) = 0.95-0.99 and the root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.09-0.21.

scholarly journals Statistical modeling of spatial and temporal vulnerability of groundwater level in the Gaza Strip (Palestine)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Al-Najjar ◽  
Gokmen Ceribasi ◽  
Emrah Dogan ◽  
Khalid Qahman ◽  
Mazen Abualtayef ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
Groundwater Pumping ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Groundwater Balance ◽  
The Gaza Strip

Abstract The water supply in the Gaza Strip substantially depends on the groundwater resource of the Gaza coastal aquifer. The climate changes and the over-exploiting processes negatively impact the recovery of the groundwater balance. The climate variability is characterized by the decline in the precipitation by −5.2% and an increase in the temperature by +1 °C in the timeframe of 2020–2040. The potential evaporation and the sunshine period are expected to increase by about 111 mm and 5 hours, respectively, during the next 20 years. However, the atmosphere is predicted to be drier where the relative humidity will fall by a trend of −8% in 20 years. The groundwater abstraction is predicted to increase by 55% by 2040. The response of the groundwater level to climate change and groundwater pumping was evaluated using a model of a 20-neuron ANN with a performance of the correlation coefficient (r)=0.95–0.99 and the root mean square error (RMSE)=0.09–0.21. Nowadays, the model reveals that the groundwater level ranges between −0.38 and −18.5 m and by 2040 it is expected to reach −1.13 and −28 m below MSL at the northern and southern governorates of the Gaza Strip, respectively.

Climate change and its impact on domestic water consumption in Sub-urban regions in the Gaza Strip

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdy Jarboo ◽  
Husam Al-Najar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Suburban Areas ◽  
Domestic Water Consumption ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to identify the priorities on water sector planning. The priorities are identified by comparing the climate change impact on water consumption and the impact of using domestic water illegally to irrigate the urban agricultural holdings in suburban areas. Design/methodology/approach – Metered water consumption in summer and winter in both urban and suburban areas was studied in Rafah city. A backward chronological linear model of climate change (precipitation and temperature) influence on water consumption was developed using software STATISTICA 10. The developed statistical relation was used to predict the impact of various climate change scenarios for domestic water consumption. Hence, four climate change scenarios were hypothesized – an increase in temperature by 1 and 20°C and a reduction in the rainfall by 10 and 20 per cent, respectively. Findings – The most influential climate change scenario was the increase of temperature by 20°C, which caused an increase of 1.4 per cent on the average domestic water consumption compared to the current value. The hypothesized reduction of 20 per cent in precipitation caused a negligible increase in water consumption by 0.1 per cent from the current value. Urban agriculture and current practice of using municipal water to irrigate cultivated urban holdings have a significant negative influence on domestic water consumption. The aforementioned practice led to a high percentage of unaccounted for water (UFW) of 33, 38 and 45 per cent for the years 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. Practical implications – The concerned decision-makers should consider the right track in prioritizing dilemmas for planning water sector in suburban areas. Originality/value – This research could be considered the first of its kind because impacts of urban agriculture and climate change on domestic water consumption have never been previously considered in the Gaza Strip.

Response of karst springs to climate change and anthropogenic activities: the Niangziguan Springs, China

2009 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 634-649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yonghong Hao ◽  
Yajie Wang ◽  
Yuen Zhu ◽  
Yi Lin ◽  
Jet-Chau Wen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Spring Discharge ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Niangziguan Springs

Discharge from the largest karst spring in north China, the Niangziguan Springs, has been declining since the 1950s. This paper examines the response of these springs to climatic change and anthropogenic influence by attempting a model-based discrimination between phases in the stream discharge record. In Niangziguan Springs Basin, the exploitation of karst groundwater began in 1979. Accordingly, the spring discharge data were divided into two phases: pre-1979 and post-1979. In the first phase (1957—78) the spring discharge was believed to be affected solely by climate change, and in the second phase (1979—2007) the spring discharge was influenced by both climate change and human activities. Using grey system theory, a discharge model was estimated for the first phase. Extrapolating the model, we obtained a projection of the spring discharge during the second phase. Using a water balance calculation, we discerned the respective effects of climate change and human activities on depletion of spring discharge for the second phase. The results show that the contribution of climate change to depletion of Niangziguan Springs is 2.30m3/s and the contribution of anthropogenic activities ranges from 1.89 to 2.90 m3/s, although this assumes a constant for the climate change effect. Accordingly, the anthropogenic effects have been approaching and surpassing the effects of climate change during the second phase. With respect to the impact of human activities on spring discharge, groundwater abstraction accounts for only about 34—52% of the declines; 48—66% of the declines are related to other human activities, such as dewatering from coal mining, dam building and deforestation.

scholarly journals Assessment of Physicians’ Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding Smoking Cessation Management in the Gaza Strip

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Smoking Habit ◽  
Public Spaces ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Attitudes And Practices ◽  
Palestinian Territories ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
The Impact

Background: Despite its negative effects, approximately 23% of Palestinians (≥ 18 years) smoke cigarettes. Studies have shown physicians to be an important channel for smoking cessation intervention. This investigation examines physicians’ smoking-related knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors in the Gaza strip (Palestinian Territories). Methods and Findings: A convenience sample of 154 physicians in medical and surgical units took part in this investigation (87.7% response rate). The data show that 37.8% of physicians in Gaza smoke, and most of them about 72% smoke in the hospital’s public spaces, thereby implicitly giving public approval for smoking. While 82.4% reported that they advise patients who smoke to stop, the majority (59%) also believe that their own smoking habits negatively influence the impact of that advice. Unfortunately, our survey showed that physicians’ knowledge levels towards smoking addiction and management were lower than expected (e.g. only 34% knew that nicotine dependence is a psychiatric disorder that necessitates treatment). The physicians in this study believed that the primary barriers to failure of their patients’ smoking cessation were the perceived lack of will (81.3%), and the strength of patients’ addiction (67.9%). Moreover, (61%) of physicians did not spend enough time to convince their patients to quit smoking. Conclusion: Smoking is common among Gaza-strip physicians, and unfortunately, most of them smoke in the hospital’s public spaces. Many obstacles face the smoking cessation program that some physicians linked it to patients, and others linked it to the health-care system. Furthermore, smokers in Gaza receive poor care regarding assessment, referral, and management of their smoking habit.

scholarly journals Evaluation of a Global Vegetation Model using time series of satellite vegetation indices

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 1103-1114 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Maignan ◽  
F.-M. Bréon ◽  
F. Chevallier ◽  
N. Viovy ◽  
P. Ciais ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Vegetation Dynamic ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Atmospheric CO2 drives most of the greenhouse effect increase. One major uncertainty on the future rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is the impact of the anticipated climate change on the vegetation. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVM) are used to address this question. ORCHIDEE is such a DGVM that has proven useful for climate change studies. However, there is no objective and methodological way to accurately assess each new available version on the global scale. In this paper, we submit a methodological evaluation of ORCHIDEE by correlating satellite-derived Vegetation Index time series against those of the modeled Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). A perfect correlation between the two is not expected, however an improvement of the model should lead to an increase of the overall performance. We detail two case studies in which model improvements are demonstrated, using our methodology. In the first one, a new phenology version in ORCHIDEE is shown to bring a significant impact on the simulated annual cycles, in particular for C3 Grasses and C3 Crops. In the second case study, we compare the simulations when using two different weather fields to drive ORCHIDEE. The ERA-Interim forcing leads to a better description of the FPAR interannual anomalies than the simulation forced by a mixed CRU-NCEP dataset. This work shows that long time series of satellite observations, despite their uncertainties, can identify weaknesses in global vegetation models, a necessary first step to improving them.

scholarly journals A Novel Method for the Homogenization of Daily Temperature Series and Its Relevance for Climate Change Analysis

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (19) ◽  
pp. 5325-5331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Franz G. Kuglitsch ◽  
Elena Xoplaki ◽  
Jürg Luterbacher ◽  
Heinz Wanner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Temperature Time Series ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Higher Order Moments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Temperature Time

Abstract Instrumental daily series of temperature are often affected by inhomogeneities. Several methods are available for their correction at monthly and annual scales, whereas few exist for daily data. Here, an improved version of the higher-order moments (HOM) method, the higher-order moments for autocorrelated data (HOMAD), is proposed. HOMAD addresses the main weaknesses of HOM, namely, data autocorrelation and the subjective choice of regression parameters. Simulated series are used for the comparison of both methodologies. The results highlight and reveal that HOMAD outperforms HOM for small samples. Additionally, three daily temperature time series from stations in the eastern Mediterranean are used to show the impact of homogenization procedures on trend estimation and the assessment of extremes. HOMAD provides an improved correction of daily temperature time series and further supports the use of corrected daily temperature time series prior to climate change assessment.

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