Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios

Aim Rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of both flora and fauna. Land use change continues to alter the availability and quality of habitat and further intensifies the effects of climate change on wildlife species. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for an iconic wildlife species, greater one-horned rhinoceros due to the combined effects of climate and land use changes. Location Nepal. Methods We compiled an extensive database on current rhinoceros distribution and selected nine ecologically meaningful environmental variables for developing ensemble models of habitat suitability using seven different species distribution modelling techniques in the BIOMOD2 R package; and we did this under current climatic conditions and then projected them onto two possible climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSp5-8.5) and two different time frames (2050 and 2070). Results Out of seven algorithms, random forest performed the best, and four environmental variables — distance from grasslands, distance from wetlands, annual precipitation, and slope, contributed the most in the model. The ensemble model estimated the current suitable habitat of rhinoceros to be 1,875 km2, about 1.3% of the total area of Nepal. The future habitat suitability under the lowest and highest emission scenarios was estimated to be: (1) 1,637 km2 and 1,417 km2 in 2050; and (2) 1,562 km2 and 1,301 km2 in 2070, respectively. Main conclusions Our results suggest that nearly one-third of the current rhinoceros habitat would become unsuitable within a period of 50 years, with the predicted declines being influenced to a greater degree by climatic changes than land use changes. We have recommended several measures to moderate these impacts, including relocation of the proposed Nijgad International Airport given that a considerable portion of potential rhinoceros habitat will be lost if the airport is constructed on the currently proposed site.

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Soil carbon response to land-use change: Evaluation of a global vegetation model using meta-data

10.5194/bg-2016-161 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Sylvia S. Nyawira ◽

Julia E. M. S. Nabel ◽

Axel Don ◽

Victor Brovkin ◽

Julia Pongratz

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Carbon ◽

Vegetation Type ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Carbon Gain ◽

Meta Data ◽

Vegetation Models ◽

Global Vegetation

Abstract. Global model estimates of soil carbon changes from past land-use changes remain uncertain. We develop an approach for evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) against existing observational meta-data on soil carbon changes following land-use change. Using the DGVM JSBACH, we perform idealized simulations where the entire globe is covered by one vegetation type, which then undergoes a land-use change to another vegetation type. We select the grid cells that represent the climatic conditions of the meta-data and compare the mean simulated soil carbon changes to the meta-data. Our simulated results show model agreement with the meta-data on the direction of changes in soil carbon for some, but not all land-use changes, while the magnitude of simulated changes is smaller than in the meta-data. The conversion of crop to forest results in soil carbon gain of 10 % and that of forest to crop to a loss of −15 % compared to a gain of 42 % and loss of −40 %, respectively, in the meta-data. However, the conversion of crop to grass results in a small soil carbon loss (−4 %), while the meta-data indicate a gain in soil carbon of 38 %. These model deviations from the meta-data are substantially reduced by explicitly accounting for crop harvesting and switching off burning in grasslands in the model. We conclude that our idealized simulation approach provides an appropriate framework for evaluating DGVMs against meta-data and that this evaluation helps to identify the causes of deviation of simulated soil carbon changes from the meta-data.

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Soil carbon response to land-use change: evaluation of a global vegetation model using observational meta-analyses

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 5661-5675 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Sylvia S. Nyawira ◽

Julia E. M. S. Nabel ◽

Axel Don ◽

Victor Brovkin ◽

Julia Pongratz

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Carbon ◽

Observational Data ◽

Vegetation Type ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Carbon Gain ◽

Meta Analyses ◽

Global Vegetation

Abstract. Global model estimates of soil carbon changes from past land-use changes remain uncertain. We develop an approach for evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) against existing observational meta-analyses of soil carbon changes following land-use change. Using the DGVM JSBACH, we perform idealized simulations where the entire globe is covered by one vegetation type, which then undergoes a land-use change to another vegetation type. We select the grid cells that represent the climatic conditions of the meta-analyses and compare the mean simulated soil carbon changes to the meta-analyses. Our simulated results show model agreement with the observational data on the direction of changes in soil carbon for some land-use changes, although the model simulated a generally smaller magnitude of changes. The conversion of crop to forest resulted in soil carbon gain of 10 % compared to a gain of 42 % in the data, whereas the forest-to-crop change resulted in a simulated loss of −15 % compared to −40 %. The model and the observational data disagreed for the conversion of crop to grasslands. The model estimated a small soil carbon loss (−4 %), while observational data indicate a 38 % gain in soil carbon for the same land-use change. These model deviations from the observations are substantially reduced by explicitly accounting for crop harvesting and ignoring burning in grasslands in the model. We conclude that our idealized simulation approach provides an appropriate framework for evaluating DGVMs against meta-analyses and that this evaluation helps to identify the causes of deviation of simulated soil carbon changes from the meta-analyses.

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Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I

Jurnal Buana Informatika ◽

10.24002/jbi.v8i4.1446 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Matheus Supriyanto Rumetna ◽

Eko Sediyono ◽

Kristoko Dwi Hartomo

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Spatial Autocorrelation ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Geographical Information ◽

Moran’S I ◽

Complete Spatial Randomness ◽

Moran's I ◽

Global Moran’S I ◽

Spatial Randomness

Abstract. Bantul Regency is a part of Yogyakarta Special Province Province which experienced land use changes. This research aims to assess the changes of shape and level of land use, to analyze the pattern of land use changes, and to find the appropriateness of RTRW land use in Bantul District in 2011-2015. Analytical methods are employed including Geoprocessing techniques and analysis of patterns of distribution of land use changes with Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I). The results of this study of land use in 2011, there are thirty one classifications, while in 2015 there are thirty four classifications. The pattern of distribution of land use change shows that land use change in 2011-2015 has a Complete Spatial Randomness pattern. Land use suitability with the direction of area function at RTRW is 24030,406 Ha (46,995406%) and incompatibility of 27103,115 Ha or equal to 53,004593% of the total area of Bantul Regency.Keywords: Geographical Information System, Land Use, Geoprocessing, Global Moran's I, Bantul Regency. Abstrak. Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I. Kabupaten Bantul merupakan bagian dari Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang mengalami perubahan tata guna lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji perubahan bentuk dan luas penggunaan lahan, menganalisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan, serta kesesuaian tata guna lahan terhadap RTRW yang terjadi di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2011-2015. Metode analisis yang digunakan antara lain teknik Geoprocessing serta analisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan dengan Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah penggunaan tanah pada tahun 2011, terdapat tiga puluh satu klasifikasi, sedangkan pada tahun 2015 terdapat tiga puluh empat klasifikasi. Pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tata guna lahan tahun 2011-2015 memiliki pola Complete Spatial Randomness. Kesesuaian tata guna lahan dengan arahan fungsi kawasan pada RTRW adalah seluas 24030,406 Ha atau mencapai 46,995406 % dan ketidaksesuaian seluas 27103,115 Ha atau sebesar 53,004593 % dari total luas wilayah Kabupaten Bantul. Kata Kunci: Sistem Informasi Georafis, tata guna lahan, Geoprocessing, Global Moran’s I, Kabupaten Bantul.

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Ecological and Environmental Effects of Estuarine Wetland Loss Using Keyhole and Landsat Data in Liao River Delta, China

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13020311 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 311

Author(s):

Hongyan Yin ◽

Yuanman Hu ◽

Miao Liu ◽

Chunlin Li ◽

Jiujun Lv

Keyword(s):

Heavy Metal ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Ecological Risk ◽

Potential Ecological Risk ◽

Wetland Loss ◽

Ecological Effects ◽

Paddy Fields ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Estuarine Wetland

An estuarine wetland is an area of high ecological productivity and biodiversity, and it is also an anthropic activity hotspot area, which is of concern. The wetlands in estuarine areas have suffered declines, which have had remarkable ecological impacts. The land use changes, especially wetland loss, were studied based on Keyhole and Landsat images in the Liao River delta from 1962 to 2016. The dynamics of the ecosystem service values (ESVs), suitable habitat for birds, and soil heavy metal potential ecological risk were chosen to estimate the ecological effects with the benefit transfer method, synthetic overlaying method, and potential ecological risk index (RI) method, respectively. The driving factors of land use change and ecological effects were analyzed with redundancy analysis (RDA). The results showed that the built-up area increased from 95.98 km2 in 1962 to 591.49 km2 in 2016, and this large change was followed by changes in paddy fields (1351.30 to 1522.39 km2) and dry farmland (189.5 to 294.14 km2). The area of wetlands declined from 1823.16 km2 in 1962 to 1153.52 km2 in 2016, and this change was followed by a decrease in the water area (546.2 to 428.96 km2). The land use change was characterized by increasing built-up (516.25%), paddy fields (12.66%) and dry farmland (55.22%) areas and a decline in the wetland (36.73%) and water areas (21.47%) from 1962–2016. Wetlands decreased by 669.64 km2. The ESV values declined from 6.24 billion US$ to 4.46 billion US$ from 1962 to 2016, which means the ESVs were reduced by 19.26% due to wetlands being cultivated and the urbanization process. The area of suitable habitat for birds decreased by 1449.49 km2, or 61.42% of the total area available in 1962. Cd was the primary soil heavy metal pollutant based on its concentration, accumulation, and potential ecological risk contribution. The RDA showed that the driving factors of comprehensive ecological effects include wetland area, Cd and Cr concentration, river and oil well distributions. This study provides a comprehensive approach for estuarine wetland cultivation and scientific support for wetland conservation.

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Land-Use Change Impacts from Sustainable Hydropower Production in EU28 Region: An Empirical Analysis

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13094599 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 4599

Author(s):

Mohd Alsaleh ◽

Muhammad Mansur Abdulwakil ◽

Abdul Samad Abdul-Rahim

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Land Use ◽

European Union ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Energy Production ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

The European Union ◽

Hydropower Production

Under the current European Union (EU) constitution approved in May 2018, EU countries ought to guarantee that estimated greenhouse-gas releases from land use, land-use change, or forestry are entirely compensated by an equivalent accounted removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air during the period between 2021 and 2030. This study investigates the effect of sustainable hydropower production on land-use change in the European Union (EU28) region countries during 1990–2018, using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The results revealed that land-use change incline with an increase in hydropower energy production. In addition, economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and population density are found to be increasing land-use changes, while institutional quality is found to be decreasing land-use change significantly. The finding implies that land-use change in EU28 region countries can be significantly increased by mounting the amount of hydropower energy production to achieve Energy Union aims by 2030. This will finally be spread to combat climate change and environmental pollution. The findings are considered robust as they were checked with DOLS and pooled OLS. The research suggests that the EU28 countries pay attention to the share of hydropower in their renewable energy combination to minimize carbon releases. Politicians and investors in the EU28 region ought to invest further in the efficiency and sustainability of hydropower generation to increase its production and accessibility without further degradation of forest and agricultural conditions. The authorities of the EU28 region should emphasize on efficiency and sustainability of hydropower energy with land-use management to achieve the international commitments for climate, biodiversity, and sustainable development, reduce dependence on fossil fuel, and energy insecurity.

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Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13063473 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (6) ◽

pp. 3473

Author(s):

Yong Lai ◽

Guangqing Huang ◽

Shengzhong Chen ◽

Shaotao Lin ◽

Wenjun Lin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Landscape Connectivity ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Research Result ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

Ecological Processes ◽

Buffer Zones ◽

Conflict Zones ◽

Land Use Dynamics

Anthropogenic land-use change is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. China has been on a fast track of land-use change since the Reform and Opening-up policy in 1978. In view of the situation, this study aims to optimize land use and provide a way to effectively coordinate the development and ecological protection in China. We took East Guangdong (EGD), an underdeveloped but populous region, as a case study. We used land-use changes indexes to demonstrate the land-use dynamics in EGD from 2000 to 2020, then identified the hot spots for fast-growing areas of built-up land and simulated land use in 2030 using the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model. The results indicated that the cropland and the built-up land changed in a large proportion during the study period. Then we established the ecological security pattern (ESP) according to the minimal cumulative resistance model (MCRM) based on the natural and socioeconomic factors. Corridors, buffer zones, and the key nodes were extracted by the MCRM to maintain landscape connectivity and key ecological processes of the study area. Moreover, the study showed the way to identify the conflict zones between future built-up land expansion with the corridors and buffer zones, which will be critical areas of consideration for future land-use management. Finally, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the research result.

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The Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform: IEEM Platform Technical Guides: User Guide for the IEEM-enhanced Land Use Land Cover Change Model Dyna-CLUE

10.18235/0003625 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Peter H. Verburg ◽

Žiga Malek ◽

Sean P. Goodwin ◽

Cecilia Zagaria

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Environmental Modeling ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Regional Modelling ◽

Model Application ◽

Climatic Regions ◽

Single Region

The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework (CLUE) was developed to simulate land use change using empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors in combination with dynamic modeling of competition between land use types. Being one of the most widely used spatial land use models, CLUE has been applied all over the world on different scales. In this document, we demonstrate how the model can be used to develop a multi-regional application. This means, that instead of developing numerous individual models, the user only prepares one CLUE model application, which then allocates land use change across different regions. This facilitates integration with the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform for subnational assessments and increases the efficiency of the IEEM and Ecosystem Services Modeling (IEEMESM) workflow. Multi-regional modelling is particularly useful in larger and diverse countries, where we can expect different spatial distributions in land use changes in different regions: regions of different levels of achieved socio-economic development, regions with different topographies (flat vs. mountainous), or different climatic regions (dry vs humid) within a same country. Accounting for such regional differences also facilitates developing ecosystem services models that consider region specific biophysical characteristics. This manual, and the data that is provided with it, demonstrates multi-regional land use change modeling using the country of Colombia as an example. The user will learn how to prepare the data for the model application, and how the multi-regional run differs from a single-region simulation.

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Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-12-159-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 159-175 ◽

Cited By ~ 63

Author(s):

P. J. Ward ◽

H. Renssen ◽

J. C. J. H. Aerts ◽

R. T. van Balen ◽

J. Vandenberghe

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Winter Precipitation ◽

Flood Frequency ◽

High Flow ◽

Recurrence Time ◽

Strong Increase ◽

Historical Sources

Abstract. In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m3 s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m3 s−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m3 s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m3 s−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

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DOMINANT FACTORS CHANGE OF LAND FUNCTION IN RAPUAN ROAD CORRIDOR UBUD BALI DUE TO TOURISM ACTIVITIES

ASTONJADRO ◽

10.32832/astonjadro.v11i1.5814 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 118

Author(s):

Ni Nyoman Samitri Putri ◽

Ngakan Ketut Acwin Dwijendra

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Rice Fields ◽

Internal Factors ◽

Tourist Destinations ◽

Tourist Accommodation ◽

Collection Methods

<p>Bali is the most popular tourist destination with Ubud one of the tourist destinations with its beautiful landscapes and rice fields. Mas Village, Ubud is one of the tourist villages that has been inaugurated by the Gianyar Regency Government based on the Decree of the Gianyar Regent Number 429/E-02/HK/2017 regarding the establishment of a Tourism Village. Jalan Rapuan which is located in Tarukan Tourism Village, Mas is one of the strategic corridors in Mas Tourism Village because it is a stretch of rice fields that has a high tourism selling value. The purpose of this study is to identify changes in land use in 2013-2021 due to tourism activities seen from the aspects that have a dominant influence on land use changes. Quantitative method is the method used with primary and secondary data collection methods and stages of analysis in the form of descriptive analysis of tourism activities in Mas Village, statistical-descriptive analysis of land use change with overlay analysis on the Jalan Rapuan corridor. The results showed that there was a change in land use along the Rapuan corridor in 2013-2021 by 14% of the non-built land to be built in the form of tourist accommodation and housing. The indicators analyzed by factor analysis were able to explain important factors, namely external factors of 31.69%, internal factors of 23.821% and regulatory factors of 17.218% with a total of factors able to explain land use change of 72.73%.</p>

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The effect of land-use change on river watershed quality (case study: Cimahi Watershed, West Java, Indonesia)

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/933/1/012010 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 933 (1) ◽

pp. 012010

Author(s):

S A Nurhayati ◽

M Marselina ◽

A Sabar

Keyword(s):

Water Quality ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Pearson Correlation ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Quality Parameters ◽

Water Quality Parameters ◽

Watershed Area ◽

Watershed Land Use ◽

Main River

Abstract Increasing population growth is one of the impacts of the growth of a city or district in an area. This also happened in the Cimahi watershed area. As the population grows, so does the need for land which increases the land-use change in the Cimahi watershed. Land-use changes will affect the surrounding environment and one of them is the river, especially river water quality. As a watershed area, there is one main river that is the source of life as well as the Cimahi watershed, whose main river is the Cimahi River. The purpose of this study was calculated the relationship between land-use change in the Cimahi watershed and the water quality parameters of the Cimahi River. The correlation between the two was calculated using Pearson correlation. Water quality parameters can be seen based on BOD and DO values. BOD and DO values are the opposite because good water quality has high DO values and low BOD values. The correlation between land-use change and BOD was 0.328 is in the area of settlements area. In contrast, to DO values, an increase in settlements/industrial zones will further reduce DO values so that both have a negative correlation, which is indicated by a value of -0,535. The correlation between settlements with pH and temperature values is 0.664 and 0.812. While the correlation between settlements with TSS and TDS values are 0.333 and 0.529, respectively. In this study, it can be seen that there is a relationship between the decline in water quality and changes in land use.

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