scholarly journals Integrating mixed-cell CA model and Bayesian belief networks to optimize ecosystem services for ecological restoration and conservation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuang Zhou ◽  
Li Peng
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Ecological Restoration ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
The State ◽  
Belief Networks ◽  
Mixed Cell ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Ca Model

The complexity and uncertainty of land use and environmental factors pose challenges to the management decisions of ecological restoration and conservation.We integrated the mixed-cell CA model and Bayesian belief networks to develop an innovative method for optimizing ecosystem services under different land development scenarios, including consideration of the uncertainty and variability of factors.The southern region of Sichuan Province, China, was selected as an example.We first established three development scenarios between 2015 and 2035, namely, natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and cultivated land protection scenario (CLPS).The MCCA model was utilized to simulate the land use pattern in 2035 under different scenarios.We then construced a BBN-based model to investigate the carbon sequestration, grain supply, soil conservation, habitat quality, and water yield in 2035 under uncertain scenarios.After the sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the model, we determined the state combination of influential factors at various ecosystem service levels and the ecological restoration and conservation key areas.The obtained result showed that the key influencing factors impacting the ecosystem services level included NPP, Slope, forestland and ET, and the state combination corresponding to the highest level of ecosystem services was predominantly distributed in regions with the highest NPP, the highest Slope, the highest forestland area and low ET.Based on this finding, we proposed some suggestions for ecological restoration and conservation of key areas.This model considers uncertainties and is capable of providing scientific recommendations on restoration and conservation; therefore, it can serve as an effective tool to assist stakeholders in making decisions.

scholarly journals A Bayesian Belief Network approach to evaluating complex effects of irrigation-driven agricultural intensification scenarios on future aquatic environmental and economic values in a New Zealand catchment

2013 ◽  
Vol 64 (5) ◽  
pp. 460 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Quinn ◽  
Ross M. Monaghan ◽  
Vincent J. Bidwell ◽  
Simon R. Harris
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Agricultural Intensification ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
Economic Values ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
On Farm

Agricultural intensification often has complex effects on a wide range of environmental and economic values, presenting planners with challenging decisions for optimising sustainable benefits. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) can be used as a decision-support tool for evaluating the influence of development scenarios across a range of values. A BBN was developed to guide decisions on water abstraction and irrigation-driven land use intensification in the Hurunui River catchment, New Zealand. The BBN examines the combined effects of different irrigation water sources and four land development scenarios, with and without a suite of on-farm mitigations, on ground and surface water quality, key socioeconomic values (i.e. farm earnings and jobs, and contribution to regional gross domestic production (GDP)) and aquatic values (i.e. salmon, birds, waterscape, contact recreation, periphyton and invertebrates). It predicts high farm earnings, jobs and regional GDP with 150% increase in irrigated area, but a range of positive and negative aquatic environmental outcomes, depending on the location of water storage dams and the application of a suite of on-farm mitigations. This BBN synthesis of a complex system enhanced the ability to include aquatic values alongside economic and social values in land-use and water resource planning and decision making, and has influenced objective setting in Hurunui planning processes.

Exploring ecosystem service issues across diverse knowledge domains using Bayesian Belief Networks

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 681-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy Haines-Young
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Social Values ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Belief Networks ◽  
Knowledge Domains ◽  
Study Materials ◽  
Shared Social Values

The analysis of the relationships between people and nature is complex, because it involves bringing together insights from a range of disciplines, and, when stakeholders are involved, the perspectives and values of different interest groups. Although it has been suggested that analytical-deliberate approaches may be useful in dealing with some of this complexity, the development of methods is still at an early stage. This is particularly so in relation to debates around the concept of ecosystem services where biophysical, social and economic insights need to be integrated in ways that can be accessed by decision-makers. The paper draws on case studies to examine the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) as a means of implementing analytical-deliberative approaches in relation to mapping ecosystem services and modelling scenario outcomes. It also explores their use as a tool for representing individual and group values. It is argued that when linked with GIS techniques BBNs allow mapping and modelling approaches rapidly to be developed and tested in an efficient and transparent way, and that they are a valuable scenario-building tool. The case-study materials also show that BBNs can support multicriteria forms of deliberative analysis that can be used to capture stakeholder opinions so that different perspectives can be compared and shared social values identified.

Linking a Land-Use Cellular Automata with a Water Allocation Model to Simulate Land Development Constrained by Water Availability in the Elbow River Watershed in Southern Alberta

GEOMATICA ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bas Straatman ◽  
Jean-Gabriel Hasbani ◽  
Tom Tang ◽  
Kent Berg ◽  
Niandry Moreno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Land Development ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Southern Alberta ◽  
Ca Model

The availability of water resources in southern Alberta is under pressure, now and most likely even more so in the remainder of the 21st century if forecasts on climate change, economic development and associated population growth come true. Alberta Environment is mandated by the provincial Water Act to regulate most use of water through a system of water licenses. This department is currently using a water resource management model (WRMM) to support its planning, but wishes to expand the reach of its decision support tools by including additional factors such as the land-use dynamics. This paper presents the coupling of the WRMM and a land-use cellular automata (CA) model to constrain land development based on water availability in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta. Simulations were run with a calibrated CA model using a land-use map of 2006 as the starting year up to the year 2031, at a five-year interval and at a spatial resolution of 60 m. Two scenarios were tested: the business as usual scenario, which is a simple extrapolation of observed historical land development, expressed as the number of built-up cells, and a second scenario in which land development is constrained based on the WRMM water availability output. Results indicate that land development varies in terms of growth and spatial distribution when comparing the two scenarios. The potential benefits and limitations of the two models are discussed and further improvement needed to increase their usefulness in guiding water resource management is highlighted.

scholarly journals Influential Actors’ Perceptions of Facilitators and Instruments for Solving Future Forest Land-Use Disputes in Europe

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Aurenhammer ◽  
Špela Ščap ◽  
Nike Krajnc ◽  
Jorge Olivar ◽  
Pablo Sabin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
The State ◽  
Mountain Forest ◽  
Forest Owner ◽  
Forest Land ◽  
Protective Function ◽  
Market Society

Despite strong expectations regarding the role that forestry, with its multitude of potential benefits, could and should play in the ‘bio-economy’, little research has been done on the actual perceptions of influential actors on how to best address future forest land-use disputes. We want to shed light on whether and in which contexts expectations regarding the bio-economy, e.g., the strong role of markets, are likely. The paper analyses influential actors’ core values and beliefs about the primary facilitators and the most appropriate instruments for resolving disputes over future forest land use. We used Social Network Analysis-based sampling and a quantitative semi-structured questionnaire, which included a preference analysis with twelve items covering broad issues and disputes related to future forest land use, to identify actors’ beliefs about and preferences for facilitators and policy instruments within key issues for future land use. The respondents were asked to identify one of five ‘primary facilitators’ (state, market, society, individual citizens/owners, leave it to nature) and distribute six points to a maximum of three preferred instruments (eight items, covering a broad set of instruments, from dictates or bans to awareness raising). The results are based on the perceptions of the influential or most important actors from various innovative government and private forest initiatives in Bavaria (Germany), Slovenia, Castilla y León (Spain), Nordeste (Portugal), and Latvia (481 actor responses, 109 initiatives). The initiatives included participatory mountain forest initiatives, forest intervention zones, afforestation projects, forest owner associations, and model forest and labelling initiatives. The results provide insight into the similarities and differences between European countries and actor groups regarding the preferred facilitators and instruments for solving future forest problems. In light of disagreement in the literature on the role of the state or markets in future forest land use and the bio-economy, our results show that the market and its instruments are considered to play a dominant role in wood mobilisation. With respect to all other issues (socio-ecological, societal, other), the state or other institutions and their instruments gain priority. The state is considered to play a stronger role in developing new markets, e.g., for energy transition or new uses of wood, contrary to liberal market expectations. Ecological and social problems are considered to be outside of the market domain. Here, the state is called in, e.g., to steer recreational issues, the provision of ecosystem services, or the improvement of the protective function. The clearest preference across all regions is for the state to secure the provision of ecosystem services, in contrast to calls for future markets to regulate this field.

scholarly journals Economic Development, Informal Land-Use Practices and Institutional Change in Dongguan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2249
Author(s):  
Yingmin Huang ◽  
Desheng Xue ◽  
Gengzhi Huang
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Land Development ◽  
The State ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
Institution Change ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Land Use Practices

This paper is engaged with the critical perspective that highlights the role of the state in the production of urban informality by examining the dynamics of informal land-use practices in Dongguan, China since 1978. Based on in-depth interviews and archival analysis, the relationship between informal land development, the state, and land institution change has been revealed. Our findings show that informal land development is practiced by village collectives from below in Dongguan as a response to the absence and limitation of the national land law. The local government handles the informality in a pragmatic way that serves the goal of economic development in different historical conditions by actions of encouraging, tolerating, and authorizing, suggesting that the definition of informality is not a neutral classification. It is argued that while informality represents people’s creativity in dealing with practical problems, when and to what extent it can be tolerated, formalized, and absorbed depends on the intention of the state in a specific historical context.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF ECOSYSTEMS SERVICES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND LAND USE MANAGEMENT

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
Elīna Konstantinova ◽  
Līga Brūniņa ◽  
Aija Peršēvica ◽  
Marga Živitere
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
National Level ◽  
Sustainable Land Use ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Planning Processes

A very important factor for sustainable development is a balance between the exploitation of natural resources for socio-economic development, and conserving ecosystem services that are critical to everyone’s wellbeing and livelihoods. The strategical importance of ecosystem services is set by the UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in 2005, which put ecosystem services firmly on the policy agenda and the EU Biodiversity Strategy, which states that “Member States must map and assess the state of ecosystems and their services in their national territory by 2014, assess the economic value of such services, and promote the integration of these values into accounting and reporting systems at EU and national level by 2020”. The aim of the paper is to present and discuss the approach of ecosystem services assessment for sustainable land use and strategical development scenarios. The paper will focus on the role of ecosystem services in development and spatial planning, and this approach can be integrated in planning processes and decision making. There will be presented a case study for two coastal territories in Latvia, where an ecosystem services assessment was implemented and sequentially different development scenarios considered and analysed.

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