Growth impact of CO2 emissions caused by tourist arrivals in Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vedat Yorucu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dynamic Relationships ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships of CO2 emissions between foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and electricity consumption (ELC). The results reveal that foreign tourists and ELC are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production and CO2 emissions from transport for Turkey, respectively. The results of the conditional error correction models (CECM) confirm that there are long-run causal relationships from the growing number of foreign tourist arrivals and the increase of ELC toward the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. The results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) error correction models for CO2 emissions also validate significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in the short run. Design/methodology/approach – ARDL modeling and Bounds test approach were used in this study. Findings – Rapid tourism development in Turkey has triggered CO2 emissions. The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey threatens sustainability. The hypothesis of “The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey” is validated. Tourist arrivals, ELC and CO2 emissions are co-integrated. CECMs confirm the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. ARDL modeling shows significant relationships between CO2 emissions and other variables. Originality/value – Results of ARDL error correction models for CO2 emissions validate the hypothesis that there are significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in Turkey for the short run.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

scholarly journals An analysis of IT software and service exports from India

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-25
Author(s):  
Manzoor Hassan Malik ◽  
Nirmala Velan
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Given ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

PurposeThe aims of the paper are to investigate IT software and service export function for India. First, cointegration tests have been used to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship of the given variables. Second, long-run coefficients and associated error correction mechanism are estimated.Design/methodology/approachAnnual time series data on IT software and service exports, human capital, exchange rate, investment in IT, external demand and openness index have been used for the present study during the period 1980–2017. The data are collected from the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM), Planning Commission of India, University Grants Commission (UGC) of India, real effective exchange rate (REER) database and World Bank development indicators. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to analyze both short-run and long-run dynamic behaviour of economic variables with appropriate asymptotic inferences.FindingsResults of the analysis show the stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the given variables. It is found that external demand, exchange rate, human capital and openness index have a substantial long-run impact on the IT software and service exports. We also found that the coefficient of error correction term is negative and significant at 1% of the level of significance, which confirms the existence of stable long-run relationship which means adjustment will take place when there is a short-run deviation to its long-run equilibrium after a shock.Research limitations/implicationsThere may be other determinants of software and service exports apart from those considered by the present study. Due to the non-availability of data, the study considers only important determinants that determine the software and service exports in India. The IT exports are an emerging and dynamic field of economic activity and the rate of change is so rapid that the relevance of individual factors may change over time. The study period is also limited to available data.Practical implicationsThe paper has implications for achieving sustainability in IT software and service exports growth. It is recommended that policies directed at improving the performance of IT software and service exports should largely consider the long-run behaviour of these variables.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on originality in the analysis of the relationship among the given variables including IT software and service exports, human capital, exchange rate, investment in IT, external demand and openness index in India. All the work has been done in original by the authors, and the work used has been acknowledged properly.

scholarly journals The impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth: A multivariate analysis for Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (221) ◽  
pp. 65-83
Author(s):  
Biçerli Kemal ◽  
Merve Kocaman
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to research the impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth for the Turkish economy. The data used is monthly and covers the period from January 2005 to March 2017. The producer price index represents prices and the industrial production index represents growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to see the effect of the minimum wage on these variables. An error-correction based Granger causality test is then conducted to see short-run and long-run causalities. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between variables. The obtained ARDL results also show that while the minimum wage has a statistically significant effect on unemployment and prices, it does not have a statistically significant effect on production. While there is short-run causality from minimum wage to prices only, the obtained significant error correction terms indicate long-run causality for all of the variables. Consequently, the minimum wage plays a significant role in increasing prices and the number of unemployed people in Turkey.

Factors determining bank deposit growth in Turkey: an empirical analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-132
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Nandom Yakubu ◽  
Aziza Hashi Abokor
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose This paper aims to examine the key factors determining bank deposit growth in Turkey for the period 2000Q1–2016Q4. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the effect of bank-level and macroeconomic factors on deposit growth. Findings The results reveal that bank stability, banking sector efficiency, broad money supply, economic growth, and inflation are significant determinants of deposit growth in the long run. The findings further show that in the short run, only branch expansion and broad money supply are relevant for bank deposit mobilization. Originality/value This paper departs from the extant empirical studies that focus on the determinants of individual savings behaviour in Turkey. Considering the short- and long-run time dimensions, the authors distinctively examine how bank characteristics influence deposit growth, thus presenting a relatively pioneering attempt in this context.

Exchange rate effect on money demand in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iffat Zehra ◽  
Muhammad Kashif ◽  
Imran Umer Chhapra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nardl Model

PurposeThis paper aims to examine association of money demand with key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The paper also investigates the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on money demand.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Annual data from 1970 to 2018 is used which is subjected to non-linearity through partial sum concept. Empirical analysis is conducted to prove if money demand is influenced by currency appreciation or depreciation, for long and short run.FindingsCointegration test indicates existence of a long-run relationship between money demand and its determinants. Results from NARDL model suggest negative relation between money demand and inflation in long and short run. Real income shows positive but a very minimal and insignificant effect on money demand in long and short run. Impact of call money rates is statistically significant and negative on M1 and M2. Wald tests and differing coefficient sign confirm presence of asymmetric relation of REER in long run with M2, whereas in short run we observe a linear, symmetrical relation of REER with M1 and M2. Stability diagnostic tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) verify stability of M2 demand model in Pakistan.Practical implicationsResults signify that role of money demand is imperative as a monetary policy tool and it can be utilized to achieve objective of price stability. Additionally, exchange rate movements should be critically examined by monetary authorities to avoid inflationary pressures resulting from an increase in demand for broad monetary aggregate.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to scarce monetary literature on asymmetrical effects of exchange rate in Pakistan. Impact of variables has been studied through linear approach, but this paper is unique since it attempts to explore non-linear relationships.

Electricity consumption and economic growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Themba G. Chirwa ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Homogeneity Assumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Short Run

Purpose This paper aims to examine the short- and long-run relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a panel-based autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration to investigate this relationship in 12 advanced, emerging markets and developing economies during the period 1970-2016, selected from three continents, namely, Europe (Luxemborg, Norway, Denmark and Belgium), Asia (Singapore, Japan, Indonesia and India) and Africa (South Africa, Algeria, Egypt and Kenya). Findings Based on the homogeneity assumption, the study results reveal that electricity consumption is positively and significantly associated with economic growth in all the study countries in the long run. Conversely, the short-run results reveal that electricity consumption is positively and significantly associated with economic growth in ten countries and negatively associated with economic growth in only two countries. Research limitations/implications The study concludes that, on the whole, electricity consumption is an important factor of production in the majority of the study countries. Therefore, policymakers should focus on growth-enhancing energy policies that promote energy efficiency usage, especially in the long run. Originality/value The authors hereby confirm that the paper has not been published elsewhere, and this research is entirely their work.

ON AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG, COINTEGRATION AND ERROR CORRECTION MODEL: An Application to Some Nigeria Macroeconomic Variables

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (08) ◽  
pp. 56-62
Author(s):  
Olanrewaju I. Shittu ◽  
Raphael A. Yemitan ◽  
OlaOluwa S. Yaya
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run

This paper reviews the use of the traditional ARDL and the ARDL approach to cointegration for the analysis of short-run dynamic and long run relationship when series are difference stationary (series can be integrated of different orders). The two models were used to estimate the short-run dynamics and the long run relationships between selected Nigeria’s macroeconomic series. The results compares favorably with the theory that the ARDL is equivalent to the short-run dynamics of the error correction model (the resultant model from the ARDL approach to cointegration).

Analyzing Road Transport (Passenger and Freight) Demand in Pakistan with Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Co-Integration Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 036119812097400
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zamir Khan
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Freight Transport ◽  
Passenger Transport ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Understanding the determinants of transport demand is crucial in making effective transport and environmental policies. In that context, the present study provides an empirical analysis of both road passenger and freight transport demand in Pakistan, using annual time series data from 1980 to 2016. The auto-regressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of co-integration is employed to estimate the short- and long-run elasticities. The empirical results show that fuel price, per-capita income, urbanization and road density are important determinants of road passenger transport demand in Pakistan. Similarly, fuel price, industrial production and international trade are the main drivers of road freight transport demand. In general, long-run elasticities are greater than short-run elasticities. Moreover, the long-run fuel price elasticities of passenger and freight transport demand are –0.044 and –0.784, respectively, implying that policy instruments (raising fuel taxes) are relatively less effective in controlling the future road transport demand and associated environment problems. The results based on short-run error correction models indicate that passenger transport demand adjusts about 75% in the first year to achieve its long-run equilibrium, while that of freight demand adjusts toward long-run equilibrium at a relatively slower rate, with about 16% of error correction taking place in the following year to reach long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals Natural Disasters in Nigeria: An Econometric Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Okokondem Okon
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Urban Migration ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper models and estimates the occurrence of natural disaster in Nigeria using the residual-based test for cointegration within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework and error correction specification between the period 1970 and 2016, the results from the estimated static model shows that DLOG(TEM), LOG(GDPC) and LOG(URB) are long-run determinants of natural disasters in Nigeria. The short run error correction model results revealed that the coefficients of DLOG(CO2), DLOG(WIS), LOG(GDPC), LOG(URB), DLOG(GDPC(-2)) and LOG(URB(-1))seem to be significant and helpful in explaining  the occurrence of natural disaster (NAD)in Nigeria. The error correction term shows that speed of adjustment of disequilibrium in natural disaster (NAD) in the previous year which is corrected in the current year is about 44.3 percent. Therefore, Nigerian government should among other recommendations embark on reducing urbanization growth by making sure that industries which forge linkages with rural occupations should be promoted to mitigate a high rural-urban migration. Establishing of very effective early warning systems for meteorological, geophysical, biological, social and industrial hazards should be ensured.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

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