scholarly journals Do we need revision of the key geopolitical paradigms?

2020 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-36
Author(s):  
Nebojsa Vukovic

The foundation of and justification for the revision of an very important conceptual paradigm that, for decades past, have had a reputation for being the basic premise in the history of geopolitics as a (sub)discipline of (political) geographyare explored in the paper. It is classical Mackinder-Spykman?s dichotomy of the Eurasian mainland into the heartland and the rimland. Since humankind is a witness to undisputed climatic changes and global warming, which also manifests very intensively through the process of the melting of Arctic ice, the author of the paper explores whether the current retreating of ice from the Arctic annuls or at least relativizes the foundation of Halford John Mackinder?s concept of the heartland as a Eurasian ?strategic fortress? of its own kind, which inter alia owes the status it has to the existence of the white barrier (eternal ice) in the extreme north of the planet Earth. This dilemma gives rise to the next that is related to the familiar thesis of the American geopolitician Nicholas John Spykman of the crucial importance of the Eurasian rimland in the global competition of the great powers. If the Arctic Ocean stays without ice for the largest part of the yearone day, should in that case the northern mainland of the Russian Federation also be perceived as the rimland in the meaning as devised by Spykman? The author explores what the scope, content and meaning of the notions of heartland and rimland could be at all if the global warming trends present so far continued. So, the paper questions and critically perceives the two maybe most important (hypo)theses in the history of geopolitics, whose authors were Mackinder and Spykman, in the context of far-reaching climatic changes. Apart from this, the author of the paper proves/refutes the justification for the (hypo)thesis of the division of geopolitics into the so-called classical (i.e. ice) and post-ice (i.e. that which becomes relevant after a partial or maybe even full retreat of ice from the Arctic). At the very end of the paper, again in the context of the mentioned changes, the author points to the ever-increasing significance that is being assigned to the ?population? factor in geopolitics. Namely, even if climatic changes and the warming process were developing according to the scenario which is the best for man, we may yet pose a question of the possibility of the exploitation of all the potentials of the Arctic Basin in a situation when, with some rare exceptions, the northern hemisphere?s population does not increase, i.e. when it stagnates or even falls in numbers.

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  

In 2018 and 2019, the Arctic ice volume was increasing due to the reduction of SN1006 and V606 Aquilae heat delivering incoming debris stream particles or a decrease in strength. When the volume of ice on our planet was increasing in 2018-19, the planet was impacted by the new heat source of planetary nebula, PN, NGC 40. Currently the strength of PN NGC 40 is overcoming the loss of strength of the SN 1006 and V606 Aquilae and the Arctic ice volume started decreasing in March 2019. Particular longitude locations moving eastward from the initial impact point of PN NGC 40 show the effects of the PN NGC 40 hotspot passing over their locations. Shipping time through the Northeast Passage will increase for 2019 and for years thereafter. The ten-year measles outbreak that occurred from 1981 to 1991 will repeat for the period 2019 to 2029.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1/2021) ◽  
pp. 7-22
Author(s):  
Yu.I. Maksimov ◽  
◽  
A.B. Mambetova ◽  
A.I. Krivichev ◽  
◽  
...  

The article provides an overview on the history of the Kola Arctic region and the Arctic artistic exploration based on the “Straight to the North” temporary exhibition in Murmansk Regional Art Museum, 2019. Pieces of icon painting, decorative and applied arts, books, household items, painting and graphic arts and collection of the Kola Peninsula minerals were exhibited there. Some art works are described in details: paintings of Russian artists of the late 19th and early 20th centuries and Soviet artists, including painters from Murmansk and members of “The Arctic” creative team in 1978–1985. The authors analysed, how social and economic development of the Kola Arctic region influenced new art styles and directions: from plein air painting under the Extreme North conditions to industrial landscapes and creation of an art community. The authors dedicate the article to the memory of Honored Artist of the Russian Federation, the leader of “The Arctic” creative team Arvi Ivanovich Huttunen (31.08.1922–27.08.2020).


1991 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 155-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Ries ◽  
William D. Hibler

Seasonal simulations with large-scale coupled ice–ocean models have reproduced many features of the ice and ocean circulation of the Arctic Ocean and the Greenland and Norwegian seas (e.g. Hibler and Bryan, 1987; Semtner, 1987). However, the crude resolution and high lateral eddy viscosity used by these models prevent the simulation of many of the smaller-scale seasonal features and tend to produce sluggish circulation. Similarly, the use of a single year’s atmospheric forcing prevents the simulation of features on an interannual time-scale. As an initial step towards addressing these issues, an 80 km diagnostic Arctic ice–ocean model is constructed and integrated over a three-year period using daily atmospheric forcing to drive the model. To examine the effect of topographic resolution and eddy viscosity on model results, similar simulations were performed with a 160 km-resolution model. The results of these simulations are compared with one another, with buoy drift in the Arctic Basin, and with observed ice-edge variations. The model results proved most sensitive to changes in horizontal resolution. The 80 km results provided a more realistic and robust circulation in most areas of the Arctic and improved the modelled ice edge in the Barents Sea, while also successfully simulating the interannual variation in the region. Although it performed better than the 160 km model, the 80 km model still produced too large an ice extent in the Greenland Sea. No significant improvement in the ice-edge prediction was observed by varying the lateral eddy viscosity. The results indicate that problems remain in the vertical resolution in shallow regions, in treating penetrative convection, and in the simulation of inflow into the Arctic Basin through the Fram Strait.


Author(s):  
Czesław Dyrcz

This article presents the results of research based on analysis of ice conditions on the Arctic Sea in recent years and consequences of these changes. The Arctic ice extent are changed due to global warming. Reducing the ice surface leads to intensification of the navigation of the waters of the Arctic Sea, resulting in a significant reduction of the distance between the ports of Europe and East Asia and the North and South Americas. This phenomenon is conducive to the opening of new shipping routes leading through the Arctic Sea. After the entry into force of 1st January, 2017 The International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) is expected to improve the safety of conducting the navigation of the waters. Analysis of maritime accidents in the Arctic waters shows that the number of accidents has a growing trend, however, last year brings them a significant decreasing.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-90
Author(s):  
Marina A. Tarkhanova ◽  
Elena N. Golubeva

This paper discusses issues related to the analysis of the Arctic halocline state over the past decades. Observational data show that the layer of halocline in the Arctic Ocean significantly changed in the last 40 years, which may affect the Arctic ice cover. For the study we used a three-dimensional ocean and sea ice numerical model developed at the ICMMG SB RAS. The main attention was devoted to the analysis of the model distribution of water salinity in the upper 250-meter layer and its variability. Based on numerical experiments on the sensitivity of thermohaline stratification to variations in atmospheric effects and the intensity of river flow, we identified areas of the Arctic basin in which the variability of the Arctic halocline was the most pronounced.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Freiman ◽  
Anatoly Nikishin

<p>The Kucherov Terrace is a prominent flat platform lies on a depth about 1200 meters below sea level between shelf area of the Chukchi Sea and deep-water area of Podvodnikov Basin and Mendeleev Rise. Due to location between main tectonic features of the East Arctic basin this territory carries some important insights to the tectonic history of the Arctic. By available seismic data and regional seismic correlation, we outlined series of the key moments of the geological history and estimated ancient geomorphological features of the territory.   </p><p>Based on our interpretation we suppose main rifting event took place on the territory in Aptian-Albian ages. After the rifting stage thermal subsidence lead to increasing of water depth and infilling of the basin by sediments from the Siberia territory. Two main stages of sedimentary history of the area were identified: Late Cretacerous-Paleocene and Eocene-Recent.    </p><p>By presence of obvious clinoform sequences in a sedimentary cover of the Kucherov terrace, we interpret the terrace itself as submerged ancient shelf was formed not later than end of Paleocene. Using clinoform geometry we calculated paleodepth of the Podvodnikov and Toll basins as around 800-1000 meters below sea level in Paleocene. At the same time adjacent to the shelf area seamounts of the Mendeleev Rise already existed in this time and played a role of a natural barrier to the prograding shallow-marine clastic wedges.  By shelf-edge position of a clinoform sets we estimated mean subsidence rates as 15-22 meters/myr in an area with preceding sediment loading less than 3 km.  The obtained estimates can be used as good constraints during further subsidence modelling.</p><p>During Eocene-Recent stage existence of flat platform led to a peculiar pattern of a sedimentation in a Chukchi shelf. Shallow-marine circumstances led to a very fast descending profile with less or absence of basin-floor fans. Formation of the mass wasting deposits starts in this area only in the Miocene unlike adjacent territories.</p><p>The study was funded by RFBR ‐ projects № 18-05-70011 and 18-05-00495.</p><div> <div> </div> </div>


2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 323-347
Author(s):  
Robin Warner

Abstract As the Arctic ice recedes, the opportunities for all year round routing of merchant shipping through Arctic waters rise. The freeing up of Arctic waters may also attract increased numbers of scientific research vessels, vessels servicing oil and gas installations, foreign fishing vessels and warships. The prospect of major navigational channels opening up in this region bring risks to a pristine Arctic environment and its indigenous inhabitants. This article highlights the threats posed to the species, habitats and ecosystems of Arctic waters from increased shipping transits of the region including the potential for increased vessel source discharges of noxious and hazardous substances and the catastrophic consequences of groundings for the Arctic environment and its biodiversity. It reviews the legal controversies over the status of certain parts of Arctic waters and the navigational regimes applicable to foreign flag vessels transiting Arctic waters under the 1982 United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC). The need to balance navigational rights with appropriate environmental safeguards under an increasing array of international environmental principles including the precautionary approach and obligations to assess the impact of ship based activities on the global environment and its marine components is examined. The article then analyses some of the regulatory mechanisms which have been devised to promote environmentally sustainable navigation for shipping in sensitive areas of ocean space subject to high levels of shipping traffic through the International Maritime Organisation (IMO).


1991 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 155-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Ries ◽  
William D. Hibler

Seasonal simulations with large-scale coupled ice–ocean models have reproduced many features of the ice and ocean circulation of the Arctic Ocean and the Greenland and Norwegian seas (e.g. Hibler and Bryan, 1987; Semtner, 1987). However, the crude resolution and high lateral eddy viscosity used by these models prevent the simulation of many of the smaller-scale seasonal features and tend to produce sluggish circulation. Similarly, the use of a single year’s atmospheric forcing prevents the simulation of features on an interannual time-scale. As an initial step towards addressing these issues, an 80 km diagnostic Arctic ice–ocean model is constructed and integrated over a three-year period using daily atmospheric forcing to drive the model. To examine the effect of topographic resolution and eddy viscosity on model results, similar simulations were performed with a 160 km-resolution model. The results of these simulations are compared with one another, with buoy drift in the Arctic Basin, and with observed ice-edge variations. The model results proved most sensitive to changes in horizontal resolution. The 80 km results provided a more realistic and robust circulation in most areas of the Arctic and improved the modelled ice edge in the Barents Sea, while also successfully simulating the interannual variation in the region. Although it performed better than the 160 km model, the 80 km model still produced too large an ice extent in the Greenland Sea. No significant improvement in the ice-edge prediction was observed by varying the lateral eddy viscosity. The results indicate that problems remain in the vertical resolution in shallow regions, in treating penetrative convection, and in the simulation of inflow into the Arctic Basin through the Fram Strait.


1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 338-339
Author(s):  
W.D. Hibler ◽  
Peter Ranelli

The seasonal cycle of sea ice, especially the ice margin location in the East Greenland region, is significantly affected by ocean circulation. The ocean circulation in turn can be altered by ice dynamics which cause large amounts of ice to be transported to the ice margin to be melted, thus stratifying the ocean there. By responding to wind changes, the ice dynamics can also create rapid melting or freezing events which can destabilize the ocean.In an earlier study, Hibler and Bryan (1987) carried out a diagnostic simulation of the Arctic ice-ocean system in which a coupled ice-ocean circulation model was integrated for about five years beginning with mean annual estimates by Levitus (1982) of the observed temperature and salinity fields. As a consequence of this short integration, the mean baroclinic circulation of the ocean deviated little from the initial fields, although seasonal and local effects due to the interactive models were simulated. One particularly interesting result of this study was the presence of fluctuations of oceanic heat flux at the ice margin, which appeared to coincide with strong wind events occurring over a few days which induced periods of freezing.With this diagnostic model, good results for the location of the ice margin were obtained. However, a global budget analysis indicated that the net northward heat transport through the Faero–Shetland passage was not adequate to balance the heat loss to the atmosphere sustained by the ocean in the fifth year. Moreover, a 20-year simulation without diagnostic terms showed a degraduation of the baroclinic fields in the Arctic Basin possibly due to the very weak wind stress used for this particular years's wind forcing, or perhaps due to excessive damping in the ocean due to computational requirements imposed by the coarse grid.As a first step in the development of a higher-resolution fully interactive prognostic model, we have modified this model and carried out two prognostic simulations of the Arctic ice ocean system by employing 50-year integrations. The ocean model used for this study is essentially that of Hibler and Bryan (1987). However, the boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing, and ice model have been changed. In particular, a much more robust wind forcing was obtained by replacing the monthly mean wind fields with a 30-year means in order to obtain a seasonal forcing closer to climatology. With regard to the ice rheology, a cavitating fluid model in spherical coordinates which fully conserves ice mass and air sea heat exchanges was employed. The idea here is to attenuate less of the stress into the ocean so that even though the circulation is somewhat sluggish due to large viscous damping, a reasonable current field for the Arctic Basin might be obtained.Two types of prognostic circulation experiments were carried out with this model using different southern boundary conditions. In one case, a diagnostic relaxation near the boundary as used by Hibler and Bryan (1987) was employed. In this case, heat mass and salt transports through the southern boundary are essentially simulated. In the second case, the net burotropic flow through the Faero-Shetland passage and Denmark Strait were specified with the baroclinic transports partially specified by diagnostic relaxation terms. The results from both these models are analyzed with special attention to the ice edge location and the character of the baroclinic fields in the Arctic Basin.


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