The Political Manipulation of Macroeconomic Policy

1990 ◽  
Vol 84 (3) ◽  
pp. 767-795 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Williams

Conventional wisdom and some research indicate that macroeconomic policies follow cycles corresponding to political, as well as economic, forces. Using vector autoregression analysis, I test three models of monetary policy determination for the United States, 1953–1984: the electoral cycle model (that reelection motivations on the part of presidents create a policy cycle), the party differences model (that policy changes reflect revolving presidential party administrations), and the referendum model (that changes in presidential approval create, in effect, a continuing referendum, allowing presidents to monitor their success and change macroeconomic policies when necessary). Analysis shows that monetary policies, as measured by the monetary base and short-term interest rates, respond to the election cycle and presidential approval (although the effect on macroeconomic outcomes is ambiguous). Party differences are found in real income but are not very significant in other variables.

According to a common recurring analysis approach, most studies have defined the present external and universal internal deficit crisis, as the result of a wrong financial deregulation appearing in most modern financial markets. Speculation pressures, relaxing policies, monitoring over banks capital and bank governance models, seem as paying a widespread role as well. On the contrary, some historical and present new behavioral viewpoints show a uniform result of new general widespread monetary mismanagement attitudes, in a global new monetary perspective. Both Western financial markets and the new European single currency creation are showing same surfacing effects, which are generally large internal national deficits, huge trade imbalances and growing unemployment rates. The general market collapses that occurred up to the last 2008 unexpected monetary disintegration, considered firstly as the logical final effect of deep systematic crisis, as never before interlinked during the the twentieth century, has brought to a confused and contradictory row of financial irrecoverable shocks. Stemming from the monetary dissolution materialized during the First World War and never recovered, but for the short Bretton Woods interlude, the international and most of national payment systems are nowadays in a liquidity, interest rates and severe taxation single trap. My firm belief is that what happened at the end of the last century is not the consequence of some specific well-defined deregulation or mismanagement of financial institutions and markets, neither a structural collapse of some previous deteriorated model, or a cyclical evolving of market tendencies. On the contrary, what surfaced from September 1987 to August 2008 and after, has been as well unfolding up to now as an unavoidable effect of the single monetary secular debasement and unproductive and inefficient macroeconomic policies and the disregard of minor welfare and micro-economic frontiers and boundaries inconsistent in a fast enlarging competitive world. In 2016, the 1987-2008 global financial bubbles, from peripheral defaults or market plunges, has become the “final euro crisis." As well, the 19 countries of the EMS, issuing the single euro currency, apart from symptoms of economic stagnation and useless recurring monetary policies, acknowledged internal and external huge rigid trade unbalances. Some countries have been sliding into deficits for years, while the governing powers of the Eurozone have intervened from emergency to emergency, most deeply in Greece. In the Euro contest, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz (Stiglitz, 2016) has been dismantling the first hour prevailing consensus around, which affected Europe, demolishing the stronghold of austerity, and has been offering a series of discussible plans that could rescue the continent and the related parties from further depression.


2020 ◽  
pp. 234094442092771
Author(s):  
Paula Castro ◽  
Maria T Tascon ◽  
Francisco J Castaño ◽  
Borja Amor-Tapia

This article contributes to the literature by indicating how certain monetary policies impact the compensation incentives of US managers to adopt riskier business policies. Specifically, based on the agency problems between shareholders and managers and between shareholders and creditors, a research framework is developed to identify the influence of low interest rates on managers’ risk-taking incentives proxied by the sensitivity of executive compensation to stock return volatility (Vega). We examine 1,293 firms in the United States between 2000 and 2016, and the results indicate that low interest rates increase the managers’ short-term risk-taking incentives and that those incentives contribute to the risk effectively taken by the firm. Our results are robust to the use of alternative monetary proxies and to the presence of passive versus active institutional shareholders. JEL CLASSIFICATION E41; E43; E51; M12; M52


2016 ◽  
Vol 02 (04) ◽  
pp. 485-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takamoto Suzuki

Up until now, the Renminbi (RMB) reform has been progressing gradually. With the RMB becoming a Special Drawing Right (SDR) component currency, China’s monetary policies will exert significant influence on the international marketplace. The year 2014 witnessed the weakening of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, yet thanks to China’s prudent economic policies, the RMB stopped depreciating further and remained quite stable for the first half of 2015, which benefited not only China itself, but also the United States, Japan, and other Asian economies. Asian markets used to be strongly influenced by the U.S. monetary policy and the performance of the U.S. dollar. However, since the RMB devaluation against U.S. dollar in the summer of 2015, Asian markets have been inclined to move in accordance with the market information from China rather than that from the United States. Although the RMB is not a currency like the euro that has been adopted by a number of countries, it can still exert great impacts on emerging economies in the world. For the RMB to take hold globally, improved fundamentals in emerging economies, an easing in the influence of the RMB-USD exchange rate, and a healthy financial system in China are all necessary. Meanwhile, both China and the United States need to enhance their coordination on macroeconomic policies and guarantee the stability of RMB-USD exchange rate.


2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 292-303
Author(s):  
Sabri Zire Al-Saadi

This article highlights the limitation of the traditional macroeconomic policies related to oil-rent crucial issues and suggests remedies for the current global financial and economic crises in view of free market efficiency principles as advocated by contemporary economic doctrines: Keynesian and Monetarism. It also reasserts the long-term alternative strategy for the liberalization of the oil-hostage rentier economies. The given analysis is based on the experience of the oil-rentier countries, as well as the fiscal and monetary policies applied in the advanced economies; especially the United States, Britain and the European Union for dealing with the current global financial crisis and economic recession. The general aim of the analysis is to establish the bases for the required confidence in market efficiency and the benefits of the globalization thrust that are not consistent with the applied remedies. It suggests that for both advanced and oil-rentier economies, heavy investment in modernizing and the expansion of the physical, social, and environmental infrastructure projects are, at this stage, essential. However, for the oil-rentier economies, more emphasis should be given to the role of the state until the objectives of the required economic diversification strategy are achieved. As the credibility and trust of the banks and financial institutions, the policy-makers, fiscal and monetary authorities and regulators are very low, it is essential to retain the confidence of business communities and consumers in the financial and economic systems by undertaking unbiased assessment of the causes, impact, and remedies of the crises for different economies.


2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Selcuk KENDIRLI ◽  
Sedat KUSGOZOGLU ◽  
M. Sakir BASARAN

In this study we examine the impacts of expansionary monetary policies executed by the Federal Reserve on poverty in the United States of America. It has been discussed in various studies that the Fed’s expansionary monetary policies create a less positive impact on economy as a whole than financial sector. In this study, the expansionary effects of expansionary policies on the poor living in America will be discussed. The main thesis of the study is that the poor living in the United States benefited less from expansionary monetary policies than either financial sector or the US economy as a whole. When discussing the thesis of the study both employed and unemployed poor will be discussed. Therefore, it will be questioned that the decrease in the unemployment rate is the indicator of the fight against poverty.Indicators such as indices and interest rates in the financial markets, and indicators such as growth rates and unemployment rates in the overall economy are regarded as essential indicators but as for poverty it’s hard to find such regarded indicators. Unfortunately, there are not too many statistics about the poor living in the United States in the reports of the international organizations. Thus the main trouble of the study is that international comparisons are almost impossible. Therefore, various indicators produced by the U.S. government agencies of various indicators will be used in this study.


Around the world, people nearing and entering retirement are holding ever-greater levels of debt than in the past. This is not a benign situation, as many pre-retirees and retirees are stressed about their indebtedness. Moreover, this growth in debt among the older population may render retirees vulnerable to financial shocks, medical care bills, and changes in interest rates. Contributors to this volume explore key aspects of the rise in debt across older cohorts, drill down into the types of debt and reasons for debt incurred by the older population, and review policies to remedy some of the financial problems facing older persons, in the United States and elsewhere. The authors explore which groups are most affected by debt, and they also identify the factors causing this important increase in leverage at older ages. It is clear that the economic and market environments are influential when it comes to saving and debt. Access to easy borrowing, low interest rates, and the rising cost of education have had important impacts on how much people borrow, and how much debt they carry at older ages. In this environment, the capacity to manage debt is ever more important as older workers lack the opportunity to recover for mistakes.


2021 ◽  
Vol 115 (3) ◽  
pp. 567-572

On February 25, 2021, the United States conducted a strike targeting Iranian-backed militia group facilities in Syria. The strike, which came in response to a February 15, 2021 attack on U.S. interests in Iraq, marked the Biden administration's first known exercise of executive war powers. As domestic authority for the strike, President Joseph Biden, Jr. cited his authority under Article II of the U.S. Constitution and did not rely on the 2001 or 2002 Authorizations for the Use of Military Force (AUMFs). For international legal authority, Biden relied on individual self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter, stating that Syria was “unwilling or unable” to prevent further attacks on the United States by these non-state actors within its territory. The strikes garnered mixed reactions from Congress, where efforts are underway to repeal or reform extant AUMFs as well as the War Powers Resolution (WPR). The Biden administration is also undertaking a review of current U.S. military policy on the use of force, and during this process, it has prohibited drone strikes outside of conventional battlefields, absent presidential approval.


1990 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 577 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. W. Hafer ◽  
Richard G. Sheehan

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (47) ◽  
pp. 4477-4501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jérôme Creel ◽  
Paul Hubert ◽  
Mathilde Viennot

2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 533-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Lelart

The evolution of the international monetary System prompted the nine members of the E.E.C. to establish a European Monetary System. The new statutes of the I.M.F. have in fact legalized the practice of flexible exchange rates and sanctioned the dollar's inconvertibility while eliminating the role of gold. Further, the increasing importance of the international capital markets fosters the unlimited expansion of international liquidities. it is in response to this context then that Europe seeks to create a zone of stability and to manage its own international tender in accordance with rules that it has set for itself. The author draws a positive conclusion as the System has operated without major problems so far. Nevertheless, difficulties remain: the international environment has not improved given the abrupt strengthening of the dollar and the increase in American interest rates. In addition, progress with regard to cooperation among the Nine remains slow and political change in France makes any prognosis respecting the future of the European Monetary System difficult. It was anticipated that the System would be Consolidated rapidly. It would in that event contribute more effectively to the stability of the international monetary System. It could, on the other hand, sharpen competition between Europe and the United States, between the Ecu and S.D.Rs. and between the European Monetary Fund and the International Monetary Fund.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document