Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes

1994 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 577-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Fearon

International crises are modeled as a political “war of attrition” in which state leaders choose at each moment whether to attack, back down, or escalate. A leader who backs down suffers audience costs that increase as the public confrontation proceeds. Equilibrium analysis shows how audience costs enable leaders to learn an adversary's true preferences concerning settlement versus war and thus whether and when attack is rational. The model also generates strong comparative statics results, mainly on the question of which side is most likely to back down. Publicly observable measures of relative military capabilities and relative interests prove to have no direct effect once a crisis begins. Instead, relative audience costs matter: the side with a stronger domestic audience (e.g., a democracy) is always less likely to back down than the side less able to generate audience costs (a nondemocracy). More broadly, the analysis suggests that democracies should be able to signal their intentions to other states more credibly and clearly than authoritarian states can, perhaps ameliorating the security dilemma between democratic states.

2011 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
pp. 437-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
JACK SNYDER ◽  
ERICA D. BORGHARD

A large literature in political science takes for granted that democratic leaders would pay substantial domestic political costs for failing to carry out the public threats they make in international crises, and consequently that making threats substantially enhances their leverage in crisis bargaining. And yet proponents of this audience costs theory have presented very little evidence that this causal mechanism actually operates in real—as opposed to simulated—crises. We look for such evidence in post-1945 crises and find hardly any. Audience cost mechanisms are rare because (1) leaders see unambiguously committing threats as imprudent, (2) domestic audiences care more about policy substance than about consistency between the leader's words and deeds, (3) domestic audiences care about their country's reputation for resolve and national honor independent of whether the leader has issued an explicit threat, and (4) authoritarian targets of democratic threats do not perceive audience costs dynamics in the same way that audience costs theorists do. We found domestic audience costs as secondary mechanisms in a few cases where the public already had hawkish preferences before any threats were made.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Urman ◽  
Stefania Ionescu ◽  
David Garcia ◽  
Anikó Hannák

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists have been willing to share their results quickly to speed up the development of potential treatments and/or a vaccine. At the same time, traditional peer-review-based publication systems are not always able to process new research promptly. This has contributed to a surge in the number of medical preprints published since January 2020. In the absence of a vaccine, preventative measures such as social distancing are most helpful in slowing the spread of COVID-19. Their effectiveness can be undermined if the public does not comply with them. Hence, public discourse can have a direct effect on the progression of the pandemic. Research shows that social media discussions on COVID-19 are driven mainly by the findings from preprints, not peer-reviewed papers, highlighting the need to examine the ways medical preprints are shared and discussed online. OBJECTIVE We examine the patterns of medRxiv preprint sharing on Twitter to establish (1) whether the number of tweets linking to medRxiv increased with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) which medical preprints were mentioned on Twitter most often; (3) whether medRxiv sharing patterns on Twitter exhibit political partisanship; (4) whether the discourse surrounding medical preprints among Twitter users has changed throughout the pandemic. METHODS The analysis is based on tweets (n=557,405) containing links to medRxriv preprint repository that were posted between the creation of the repository in June 2019 and June 2020. The study relies on a combination of statistical techniques and text analysis methods. RESULTS Since January 2020, the number of tweets linking to medRxiv has increased drastically, peaking in April 2020 with a subsequent cool-down. Before the pandemic, preprints were shared predominantly by users we identify as medical professionals and scientists. After January 2020, other users, including politically-engaged ones, have started increasingly tweeting about medRxiv. Our findings indicate a political divide in sharing patterns of the top-10 most-tweeted preprints. All of them were shared more frequently by users who describe themselves as Republicans than by users who describe themselves as Democrats. Finally, we observe a change in the discourse around medRxiv preprints. Pre-pandemic tweets linking to them were predominantly using the word “preprint”. In February 2020 “preprint” was taken over by the word “study”. Our analysis suggests this change is at least partially driven by politically-engaged users. Widely shared medical preprints can have a direct effect on the public discourse around COVID-19, which in turn can affect the societies’ willingness to comply with preventative measures. This calls for an increased responsibility when dealing with medical preprints from all parties involved: scientists, preprint repositories, media, politicians, and social media companies. CONCLUSIONS Widely shared medical preprints can have a direct effect on the public discourse around COVID-19, which in turn can affect the societies’ willingness to comply with preventative measures. This calls for an increased responsibility when dealing with medical preprints from all parties involved: scientists, preprint repositories, media, politicians, and social media companies.


2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 228-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong Woo Kang ◽  
Suzette Dagli

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that higher tariffs under protectionism will have significant indirect impact through industrial forward and backward linkages, causing greater economic losses to tariff-imposing economies than to exporting countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors use partial equilibrium analysis based on unique multi-regional input-output (IO) data in measuring the second-round spillover effects of higher tariffs, also investigating the scenario of plausible substitutability across import sources as well as sectors based on historical import intensity data. Findings Higher tariffs do not only have a direct impact, but also a significant indirect impact—through forward and backward linkages. Indirect effects can be extensive across economies and sectors—both in forward and backward linkages such as in transport—when value chains are longer and more complex. When possible substitution effects between different import sources and sectors are considered, negative forward linkage effects can be smaller, while negative backward linkage effects become more pronounced. Nevertheless, both negative effects are still found to be much bigger in indirect impacts compared with direct impacts. Research limitations/implications This implies that higher tariffs, including administrative trade measures such as anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties could ironically entail rather greater negative impact on the tariff-imposing importing economies by damaging their exports of domestic sectors using the targeted imports as intermediate inputs, which could be severe if the importing sector has a long value chain in particular through deep forward linkages. Originality/value This paper uses unique multi-regional IO data covering 45 economies’ 35 sectors in analyzing the second-round spillover effects across countries and sectors and employs comparative statics under different scenarios.


Author(s):  
Kai Quek

Abstract Two states in a dispute refuse to back down. One ties its own hands to strengthen its stand and gain advantage; the other tries to untie the tied hands to preempt disadvantage. Tying hands is a well-studied strategy, but it tells only part of the story, and the response strategy of untying hands remains unexplored. Can a state untie the tied hands of its opponent to give freedom back to its opponent—the freedom to concede? I identify three strategies of untying hands: counterthreat, reassurance, and normative framing. I show experimentally that these strategies can reduce the public costs of backing down and the perceived reputational damage from backing down. Tied hands and audience costs are not static and immutable, but dynamic and malleable by the other side.


2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (02) ◽  
pp. 433-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miles M. Evers ◽  
Aleksandr Fisher ◽  
Steven D. Schaaf

Does President Trump face domestic costs for foreign policy inconsistency? Will co-partisans and opposition-partisans equally punish Donald Trump for issuing flippant international threats and backing down? While the president said he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody” without losing voters, the literature consistently shows that individuals, regardless of partisanship, disapprove of leaders who jeopardize the country’s reputation for credibility and resolve. Given the atypical nature of the Trump presidency, and the severe partisan polarization surrounding it, we investigate whether the logic of audience costs still applies in the Trump era. Using a unique experiment fielded during the 2016 presidential transition, we show that Republicans and Democrats impose equal audience costs on President Trump. And by varying the leader’s identity, between Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and “The President,” we demonstrate that the public adheres to a non-partisan logic in punishing leaders who renege on threats. Yet we also find Presidents Trump and Obama can reduce the magnitude of audience costs by justifying backing down as being “in America’s interest.” Even Democrats, despite their doubts of Donald Trump’s credibility, accept such justifications. Our findings encourage further exploration of partisan cues, leader-level attributes, and leader-level reputations.


2020 ◽  
pp. 073889422090637
Author(s):  
Xiaojun Li ◽  
Dingding Chen

Does the public in authoritarian regimes disapprove of their leaders’ backing down from public threats and commitments? Answers to this question provide a critical micro-foundation for the emerging scholarship on authoritarian audience costs. We investigate this question by implementing a series of survey experiments in China, a single-party authoritarian state. Findings based on responses from 5375 Chinese adults show that empty threats and commitments expose the Chinese government to substantial disapproval from citizens concerned about potential damage to China’s international reputation. Additional qualitative evidence reveals that Chinese citizens are willing to express their discontent of leaders’ foreign policy blunders through various channels. These findings contribute to the ongoing debate over whether and how domestic audiences can make commitments credible in authoritarian states.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 1003
Author(s):  
Vincentius Vincentius ◽  
Leksmono Suryo Putranto

Transportation is the movement of people or goods using equipment or vehicles to and from geographically separated places. The development of technology in Indonesia affects daily lifestyles, such as the existence of the internet, so that Indonesian people can now access various information quickly and easily. With the existence of an online food ordering service, it is easier for people to order food without having to go out or travel. This can affect the number of people who travel out to buy food. This study was conducted to determine what factors play a role in a person's decision to order online and find out whether online food ordering has a direct effect on trips to buy food directly by the public, and to find out the comparison of online food order services. The data for this research is collected through online questionnaires. This research will use the One-Sample T-test Test Method. From the results of the study found that service and trust are two influential factors in determining someone's decision to order food online, and respondents choose GrabFood application better in service. ABSTRAKTransportasi adalah perpindahan orang atau barang dengan menggunakan alat atau kendaraan dari dan ke tempat-tempat yang terpisah secara geografis. Perkembangan teknologi yang ada di Indonesia mempengaruhi gaya hidup sehari hari seperti dengan adanya internet, sehingga masyarakat Indonesia kini dapat mengakses berbagai informasi dengan cepat dan mudah. Dengan adanya layanan pesan makanan online masyarakat lebih mudah memesan makanan tanpa harus keluar atau berpergian. Hal ini dapat mempengaruhi jumlah masyarakat yang melakukan perjalanan keluar untuk membeli makanan. Penelitian ini dilakukan mengetahui faktor apa saja yang berperan dalam keputusan seseorang melakukan pesan online dan mengetahui apakah pesan makanan online berpengaruh secara langsung terhadap perjalanan membeli makanan langsung yang dilakukan masyarakat, dan untuk mengetahui perbandingan layanan pesanan makanan online. Data untuk penelitian didapatkan melalui kuesioner online. Penelitian ini akan menggunakan Metode Uji One Sample T-test. Dari hasil penelitian didapatkan bahwa pelayanan dan kepercayaan adalah dua faktor yang kuat dalam penentuan keputusan seseorang melakukan pesan makanan online dan responden memilih aplikasi GrabFood lebih baik dalam pelayanan.


Author(s):  
Ghada Alsulami

On March 11, 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) declares Covid-19 disease as global pandemic. Accordingly, the style of linguistic or verbal communication between governments and nations has been highly affected. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate resources where X-phemistic expressions come as characteristics of the speeches of Saudi Health Minister during Covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, it examines how Warren's euphemistic strategies (1992) have appeared in the minister’s speeches. The collected data are the eight speeches delivered by Saudi Minister of Health during Covid-19 pandemic. They are analyzed qualitatively using thematic analysis (TA) approach. The results show that Saudi Health Minister manages to deliver the massages about Covid-19 crisis through applying variety of linguistic devices which sound to be euphemistic, dysphemistic, and orthophemistic representations of the pandemic. The employment of each X-phemisms choice is mainly occurred within certain thematic fields. Euphemism is used in presenting unpleasant massages, naming the health crisis, and comforting the public. Dysphemism is applied in one specific theme of describing the virus. Orthophemisms is found in themes of declaring facts about the pandemic, warning the public, and requesting to follow instructions. It is also found that implication, reversal, particularization, metonymy, and metaphors are the most frequently used euphemistic strategies among Warren model (1992). This analysis contributes to the limited examination of pandemic discourse by understanding how X-phemistic expressions and euphemistic strategies are used by Arabic speakers during international crises like Covid-19.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 625-667
Author(s):  
Michal Szkup

This paper provides a general analysis of comparative statics results in global games. I show that the effect of a change in any parameter of a global game model of regime change can be decomposed into a direct effect, which captures the effect of a change in parameters when agents' beliefs are held constant, and a multiplier effect, which captures the role of adjustments in agents' beliefs. I characterize conditions under which the multiplier effect is strong and relate it to the strength of strategic complementarities and the publicity multiplier emphasized in earlier work. Finally, I use the above insights to identify when comparative statics can be deduced from the model's primitives when they do not depend on the information structure and when they coincide with predictions of the complete information model.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Chiozza

This study investigates an observable implication of audience cost theory. Building upon rational expectations theories of voters’ choice and foreign policy substitutability theory, it posits that audience costs vary over the electoral calendar. It then assesses whether US presidents’ major responses in international crises reflect the variability in audience costs in an analysis of 66 international crises between 1937 and 2006. Using out-of-sample tests, this study finds that tying-hand commitment strategies were more frequent closer to presidential elections, as expected from audience cost theory. It also finds that the fluctuation of audience costs over the electoral calendar is non-linear.


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