Historical HbA1c Values May Explain the Type 2 Diabetes Legacy Effect: UKPDS 88
<p><b>Objective</b> Type 2 diabetes all-cause mortality (ACM) and myocardial infarction (MI) glycaemic legacy effects have not been explained. We examined their relationships with prior individual HbA<sub>1c</sub> values and explored the potential impact of instituting earlier, compared with delayed, glucose-lowering therapy. <i></i></p> <p><b>Research design and methods</b> Twenty-year all-cause mortality (ACM) and myocardial infarction (MI) hazard functions were estimated from diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in 3,802 UK Prospective Diabetes Study participants. HbA<sub>1c</sub> values impact over time were analysed by weighting them according to their influence on downstream ACM and MI risks. </p> <p><b>Results </b>Hazard ratios for a 1 percentage unit higher HbA<sub>1c</sub> for ACM were 1.08 (95% CI 1.07-1.09), 1.18 (1.15–1.21) and 1.36 (1.30–1.42) at 5, 10 and 20 years respectively, and for MI 1.13 (1.11–1.15) at 5 years increasing to 1.31 (1.25–1.36) at 20 years. <br> Imposing a one percentage unit lower HbA<sub>1c </sub>from diagnosis generated an 18.8% (95% CI 21.1%–16.0%) ACM risk reduction 10-15 years later, whereas delaying this reduction until 10 years after diagnosis showed a 7-fold lower 2.7% (3.1%-2.3%) risk reduction. Corresponding MI risk reductions were 19.7% (22.4%-16.5%) when lowering HbA<sub>1c</sub> at diagnosis, and 3-fold lower 6.5% (7.4%-5.3%) when imposed 10 years later.</p> <p><b>Conclusions </b>The glycaemic legacy effects seen in type 2 diabetes are explained largely by historical HbA<sub>1c</sub> values having a greater impact than recent values on clinical outcomes. Early detection of diabetes and intensive glucose control from the time of diagnosis is essential to maximise reduction of the long-term risk of glycaemic complications.</p>