scholarly journals INVEST ASI, EKSPOR DAN MASALAH DE-INDUSTRIALISASI DI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Anton Agus Setyawan ◽  
Fatchurrohman Fatchurrohman
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Investment Rate ◽  
The Ideal

There are two constraints in the process of economic recovery in Indonesia. First, investment rate is decreasing in the last five years. This matter happens due to the bad investment climate in Indonesia. Second, slow growth of export rate in Indonesia. At the present, investment rate in Indonesia is only 22 percent of GDP, while the ideal rate is 30 percent of GDP. Another problem, which may be interrupting the economic recovery, is de-industrialization. The sign of de-industrialization occur by relocation phenomena of FDIfrom Indonesia. This research analyze the effects of direct investment and export to GDP. The tool of analyses of this research is econometric model known as Error Correc­tion Models. The results shows that in a long term and short term, export and direct investment do not have a significant effect to GDP. It shows that Indonesia do not have a clear policy about export and investment. The policy implications of this research are government should have a deregulation policy in the industry and recover investment climate.

The Hard Road Ahead for Thailand's Economic Recovery

2009 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 113-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhanupong Nidhiprabha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Impact

Globalization leads to the increasing complexity of production networks through foreign direct investment, which transmits demand shocks from the rest of the world to the Thai economy. Short-term fiscal stimulus would not be able to shorten the length of recession unless consumer confidence is restored. Violation of established social obligations and contracts erodes business sentiment and eventually would lead to a negative long-term impact on economic growth. The duration of the recession and the speed of a recovery hinge on the government's ability to restore confidence during uncertain times.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment Led Growth Hypothesis and Economic Development in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 376-393
Author(s):  
Ubong Edem Effiong ◽  
Nora Francis Inyang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This study was an inquiry into the nexus of the foreign-direct investment (FDI) led growth hypothesis, and how it translates into the development of the Nigerian economy as of 1970 – 2018. The study utilized secondary data from the ‘World Development Indicators’ which were analysed using the Bounds test for cointegration and the ‘autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to divulge both the short-term cum the long-term influence of foreign direct investment net inflow on ‘economic development’ of Nigeria. The Bounds test was conducted after the unit root test revealed that the variables were stationary at mixed order of level and first difference. The outcome of the ARDL Bounds test supported confirmation of long-term association among the variables. The ARDL short-run error correction showed that 14.62% of the instability in the model was corrected yearly. In the short-term, it was discovered that FDI wielded a deleterious and substantial weight on ‘economic development of Nigeria. Meanwhile, the long-term estimates indicated that FDI influenced economic development positively, though not in a significant manner. The Granger causality test supported the fact that FDI causes ‘economic development’ in Nigeria. Given this potential of FDI exerting a positive effect on ‘economic development’, the paper recommended that bottlenecks inherent in FDI influxes in the country should be removed so as to reap the fullest benefits of such inflows in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saliha Meftah ◽  
Abdelkader Nassour
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Causality Relationship

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an essential factor in the development of a country. This study aims to examine what factors influence foreign direct investment. By using the vector error correction model, the research shows that there is a long-term causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation with FDI. However, in the short term, there are no variables that affect FDI. Besides, the Granger causality test shows causality in the direction of GDP and FDI, while other variables do not have causality. This research has implications for policymakers to pay attention to macroeconomic variables in increasing the flow of foreign direct investment.

scholarly journals DETERMINAN ALIRAN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DI INDONESIA (PENDEKATAN MODEL DUNNING)

Media Trend ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Claudia TeziaJanuarita Putri ◽  
Regina Niken Wilantari
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Capital Inflow ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Openness ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Investment Opportunities

<p><em>Traffic capital across countries is one of  investment opportunities from domestic and abroad to stimulate the economic growth  of developing countries</em><em>. Compared to other forms of capital, Foreign Direct Investment is the flow of capital is long-term and relatively not as vulnerable to economic shocks. The aim of this study is to see the performance of FDI movement as a capital inflow in Indonesia and to explores whether factors that affect FDI using Dunning’s ecletic model. </em><em>This study focused on two basic analysis, descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis using the Error Correction Model (ECM). </em><em>The results of short-term ECM estimate shows that FDI is influenced by inflation and the degree of economic openness. Furthermore, the result in the long term ECM estimate show that only variable that infrastructure does not significantly affect the movement of FDI in Indonesia. </em></p>

scholarly journals Bootstrap ARDL Test on the Relationship among Trade, FDI and CO2 Emissions: Based on the Experience of BRICS Countries

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumei He ◽  
Ke-Chiun Chang ◽  
Min Li ◽  
Xueping Li ◽  
Fangjhy Li
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

We used the Bootstrap ARDL method to test the relationship between the export trades, FDI and CO2 emissions of the BRICS countries. We found that China's foreign direct investment and the lag one period of CO2 emissions have a cointegration on exports. South Africa's foreign direct investment and CO2 emissions have a cointegration relationship with the lag one period of exports, and South Africa's the lag one period of exports and foreign direct investment have a cointegration relationship with the lag one period of CO2 emissions. But whether it is China or South Africa, these three variables have no causal relationship in the long-term. Among the variables of other BRICS countries, Russia is the only country showed degenerate case #1 in McNown et al. mentioned in their paper. When we examined short-term causality, we found that CO2 emissions and export trade showed a reverse causal relationship, while FDI and carbon emissions were not so obvious. Export trade has a positive causal relationship with FDI. Those variables are different from different situations and different countries.

scholarly journals Intentional replacement of dead children in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from Ghana and Kenya

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Obeng Gyimah ◽  
Rajulton Fernando
Keyword(s):  
Childhood Mortality ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Physiological Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mortality Experience ◽  
First Child ◽  
Health Survey Data ◽  
Sub Saharan

This paper examines whether childhood deaths elicit an explicit, conscious and intentional fertility response using the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey data for Ghana and Kenya . Using multivariate hazard models, childhood mortality experience was found to have long term fertility implications beyond the short term physiological effects. In both countries, women who have experienced childhood mortality were found to have significantly higher number of additional children than those without. The death of the first child in particular was found to be associated with the risk of a higher order birth consistent with recent findings in Cameroon. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.

scholarly journals The long-term effects of take-overs on the South African economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 229-231
Author(s):  
N. Bhana
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South African ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Lower Productivity ◽  
Manufacturing Resources

Acquiring companies prefer growth through acquisitions and mergers rather than growth by direct investment in manufacturing resources. A justification for the large number of take-overs is the belief that abnormal gains are to be obtained so. There is substantial empirical evidence showing this untrue. Take-overs contribute immediate short-term gains, and are preferred to internal expansion where the benefits accrue over the long-term. Managers are usually evaluated on short-term performance criteria and therefore they have a bias for take-overs. Several investigators have studied the decline of the United States economy and the corresponding rise of Japan as industrial leader. The unrestrained take-over activity has been the chief reason for the decline of many industries in the United States. Acquiring companies have contributed to their own downfall by not investing sufficiently in up-to-date manufacturing resources. Take-overs lead to economic decline caused by lower productivity of acquired resources. South African companies are showing a strong preference for growth through take-overs. With the take-over process many local industries have come under the control of a few large conglomerates. South African acquiring companies could benefit by following the Japanese example of direct investments in technologically up-to-date manufacturing resources. More direct investment in manufacturing resources will lead to a more vigorous free-enterprise system and will raise the productivity of local industries. A more stringent Competition Act is necessary if South Africa is to avoid the harm to the economy caused by unrestrained take-over activity.

Causal Relationship Between FDI Flow and Technological Innovation in China and Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 536-545
Author(s):  
Chengkun Liu ◽  
Xiuwu Zhang ◽  
Takashi Tamamine ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Short Term ◽  
International Capital Flow ◽  
Measure Model ◽  
China And Japan ◽  
The One

The improvement of a country’s technological innovation level is influenced by the technology spillover of inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) and outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Based on the Coe and Helpmen’s theory of international capital flow model and one-way causality measure model, this study examines the similarities and dissimilarities between the dynamic effects of IDFI and OFDI on technological innovation in China and Japan to enumerate the differences in the utilization effect of FDI between developed and developing countries. The empirical results show that the one-way causality intensity of IFDI to technological innovation in China is weaker than that in Japan, but the FDI volatility in China is stronger than that in Japan. The one-way causality intensity of OFDI to technological innovation are low both in China and Japan, and the patterns of long-term and short-term effects are not identical. According to the results of our empirical research, we draw the conclusions and proposed suggestions for using IFDI and OFDI in China and Japan.

An Agenda For Econometric Model Building

1991 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 123-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jim Granato
Keyword(s):  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Methodological Approaches ◽  
Residual Correction ◽  
Statistical Criteria

This article addresses the lack of cohesion in econometric model building. This incoherence contributes to model building based on statistical criteria—correcting residuals—and not theoretical criteria. The models we build, therefore, are not valid replications of theory. To deal with this problem, an agenda for model building is outlined and discussed. Drawing on the methodological approaches of Hendry, Qin, and Favero (1989), Hendry and Richard (1982, 1983), Sargan (1964), and Spanos (1986), this agenda incorporates a “general to simple” modeling philosophy, a battery of diagnostic tests, reduction theory, and the development of models that include short-term and long-term parameters. A comparison is made between a model based on this agenda and a model based on corrected residuals. The findings show that the agenda-based model outperforms the residual correction model.

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