Historical Dynamics

Author(s):  
Peter Turchin

Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics—why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract—this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. The book develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. It then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. The book's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of the book's results suggests that the synthetic approach advocated can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

2018 ◽  
pp. 13-24
Author(s):  
I. Derevianko

The article analyze the nature and content of bilateral Canadian-American asymmetric relations with uses the general scientific methods of empirical knowledge. The asymmetry of quantitative and qualitative parameters of Canada and the USA, which is caused by historical, geographical, political, economic, demographic and cultural factors, is revealed. It is proved that in the conditions of interdependence, the asymmetry of military potentials is not a determining factor in relations between the two North American countries. It found that the existing asymmetry of indicators between Canada and the United States does not create opportunities for the strong side to dictate its conditions and does not allow these relations to be turned into a one-sided relationship. Key Canadian strategies aimed at reducing asymmetry in relations with the United States are identified. It is indicated that “soft power” is an important factor in strengthening Canada’s political position in the asymmetric model of coexistence with the United States. The Relations between Canada and the United States are characterized not only by the high level of asymmetry and the wide application of regulatory mechanisms, but also by the high degree of interdependence that is particularly noticeable in the economic and cultural spheres. The asymmetric relationship between Canadian-American is evident in terms of reaching consensus in a wide range of activities. Key words: USA, Canada, Canadian-American Relations, Asymmetry, Interdependence, Potential.


2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hueyling Tan

Molecular self-assembly is ubiquitous in nature and has emerged as a new approach to produce new materials in chemistry, engineering, nanotechnology, polymer science and materials. Molecular self-assembly has been attracting increasing interest from the scientific community in recent years due to its importance in understanding biology and a variety of diseases at the molecular level. In the last few years, considerable advances have been made in the use ofpeptides as building blocks to produce biological materials for wide range of applications, including fabricating novel supra-molecular structures and scaffolding for tissue repair. The study ofbiological self-assembly systems represents a significant advancement in molecular engineering and is a rapidly growing scientific and engineering field that crosses the boundaries ofexisting disciplines. Many self-assembling systems are rangefrom bi- andtri-block copolymers to DNA structures as well as simple and complex proteins andpeptides. The ultimate goal is to harness molecular self-assembly such that design andcontrol ofbottom-up processes is achieved thereby enabling exploitation of structures developed at the meso- and macro-scopic scale for the purposes oflife and non-life science applications. Such aspirations can be achievedthrough understanding thefundamental principles behind the selforganisation and self-synthesis processes exhibited by biological systems.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucian Chan ◽  
Garrett Morris ◽  
Geoffrey Hutchison

The calculation of the entropy of flexible molecules can be challenging, since the number of possible conformers grows exponentially with molecule size and many low-energy conformers may be thermally accessible. Different methods have been proposed to approximate the contribution of conformational entropy to the molecular standard entropy, including performing thermochemistry calculations with all possible stable conformations, and developing empirical corrections from experimental data. We have performed conformer sampling on over 120,000 small molecules generating some 12 million conformers, to develop models to predict conformational entropy across a wide range of molecules. Using insight into the nature of conformational disorder, our cross-validated physically-motivated statistical model can outperform common machine learning and deep learning methods, with a mean absolute error ≈4.8 J/mol•K, or under 0.4 kcal/mol at 300 K. Beyond predicting molecular entropies and free energies, the model implies a high degree of correlation between torsions in most molecules, often as- sumed to be independent. While individual dihedral rotations may have low energetic barriers, the shape and chemical functionality of most molecules necessarily correlate their torsional degrees of freedom, and hence restrict the number of low-energy conformations immensely. Our simple models capture these correlations, and advance our understanding of small molecule conformational entropy.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Montesinos-Magraner ◽  
Matteo Costantini ◽  
Rodrigo Ramirez-Contreras ◽  
Michael E. Muratore ◽  
Magnus J. Johansson ◽  
...  

Asymmetric cyclopropane synthesis currently requires bespoke strategies, methods, substrates and reagents, even when targeting similar compounds. This limits the speed and chemical space available for discovery campaigns. Here we introduce a practical and versatile diazocompound, and we demonstrate its performance in the first unified asymmetric synthesis of functionalized cyclopropanes. We found that the redox-active leaving group in this reagent enhances the reactivity and selectivity of geminal carbene transfer. This effect enabled the asymmetric cyclopropanation of a wide range of olefins including unactivated aliphatic alkenes, enabling the 3-step total synthesis of (–)-dictyopterene A. This unified synthetic approach delivers high enantioselectivities that are independent of the stereoelectronic properties of the functional groups transferred. Our results demonstrate that orthogonally-differentiated diazocompounds are viable and advantageous equivalents of single-carbon chirons<i>.</i>


1993 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 226-228
Author(s):  
Zakir Hussain

The book; under review provides a valuable account of the issues and factors in managing the irrigation system, and presents a lucid and thorough discussion on the performance of the irrigation bureaucracies. It comprises two parts: the first outlines the factors affecting irrigation performance under a wide range of topics in the first five chapters. In Chapter One, the authors have attempted to assess the performance of the irrigation bureaucracies, conceptualise irrigation management issues, and build an empirical base for analysis while drawing upon the experience of ten country cases in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The Second Chapter focuses on the variations in the management structures identified and the types of irrigation systems; and it defines the variables of the management structures. The activities and objectives of irrigation management are discussed in Chapter Three. The objectives include: greater production and productivity of irrigation projects; improved water distribution; reduction in conflicts; greater resource mobilisation and a sustained system performance. The authors also highlight the performance criterion in this chapter. They identify about six contextual factors which affect the objectives and the performance of irrigation, which are discussed in detail in Chapter Four. In Chapter Five, some organisational variables, which would lead to improvements in irrigation, are examined.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-93
Author(s):  
D. V. Slivinsky ◽  
I. A. Fomina ◽  
D. G. Menshikh

The presented study determines the role of business aviation in the modern economy and examines the specific features of its development in Russia.Aim. The study aims to analyze the development of business aviation in Russia and its correlation with economic development in general.Tasks. The authors determine the benefits of business aviation as a business tool, examine the specific features of the Russian business aviation market and problems of its development, and identify factors that affect the development of business aviation in Russia.Methods. This study uses the methods of comparative and retrospective analysis, cross-country comparison, systems approach, and expert analytics.Results. Business aviation is a new segment of civil aviation for Russia. Therefore, it is advisable to rely on foreign practices in the management of its development. In many countries, business aviation is a separate industry that specializes in providing transport services to a wide range of corporate clients and/or individuals. The development of this industry is associated with the economic growth rate and the development level of the national economy, and also depends on the national institutional specifics. This study describes the specific features of development of business aviation in Russia and problems arising in the organization and management of this type of business.Conclusions. The authors develop a system of factors affecting the development of business aviation in Russia, describe the major problems of this industry, and propose solutions. The results of this study can be used in the development (adjustment) of business aviation development strategies in Russia both at the industrial and corporate level, and in the implementation of the national policy in this field.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salime Goharinezhad

BACKGROUND World Health Organization declared the vaccine hesitancy as a global public health threat in 2019. Since even a slight reduction in vaccine coverage rates can lead to a decrease in herd immunity, it is imperative to explore the underlying factors affecting vaccine hesitancy. in specific contexts, considering socioeconomic and cultural variation, to ensure interventions targeting hesitancy are well formulated and intervened. OBJECTIVE The main objective of this study is to identify underlying factors affecting vaccine hesitancy in Iran. METHODS A framework qualitative study will be conducted in the west of Tehran province in 2020. Participants in the study will be recruited hesitance-parents who extracted from the SIB system (an electronic health record in Iran) to maximize diversity. Interviews will be analyzed based on ''Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy Matrix'' which developed by the WHO-SAGE Working Group. RESULTS deep understanding from the context-specific reasons for vaccine hesitancy cause to formulate better strategies to address them. The ultimate goal of this study is to inform future policies to increase the uptake of the vaccine in Iran. CONCLUSIONS This result of study will show variety opinions about vaccination among different types of socioeconomic and demographic households. The wide range of reasons related to vaccine hesitancy imply to more comprehensive, context-specific interventions. Today, the most important intervention issues focus on improving information about effectiveness and safety of vaccines, while other interventions for promoting vaccination is need to addressed.


Author(s):  
Noel Malcolm

This book of essays covers a wide range of topics in the history of Albania and Kosovo. Many of the essays illuminate connections between the Albanian lands and external powers and interests, whether political, military, diplomatic or religious. Such topics include the Habsburg invasion of Kosovo in 1689, the manoeuvrings of Britain and France towards the Albanian lands during the Napoleonic Wars, the British interest in those lands in the late nineteenth century, and the Balkan War of 1912. On the religious side, essays examine ‘crypto-Christianity’ in Kosovo during the Ottoman period, the stories of conversion to Islam revealed by Inquisition records, the first theological treatise written in Albanian (1685), and the work of the ‘Apostolic Delegate’ who reformed the Catholic Church in early twentieth-century Albania. Some essays bring to life ordinary individuals hitherto unknown to history: women hauled before the Inquisition, for example, or the author of the first Albanian autobiography. The longest essay, on Ali Pasha, tells for the first time the full story of the role he played in the international politics of the Napoleonic Wars. Some of these studies have been printed before (several in hard-to-find publications, and one only in Albanian), but the greater part of this book appears here for the first time. This is not only a contribution to Albanian and Balkan history it also engages with many broader issues, including religious conversion, methods of enslavement within the Ottoman Empire, and the nature of modern myth-making about national identity.


Author(s):  
Andrea Harris

This chapter explores the international and interdisciplinary backdrop of Lincoln Kirstein’s efforts to form an American ballet in the early 1930s. The political, economic, and cultural conditions of the Depression reinvigorated the search for an “American” culture. In this context, new openings for a modernist theory of ballet were created as intellectuals and artists from a wide range of disciplines endeavored to define the role of the arts in protecting against the dangerous effects of mass culture. Chapter 1 sheds new light on well-known critical debates in dance history between Kirstein and John Martin over whether ballet, with its European roots, could truly become “American” in contrast to modern dance. Was American dance going to be conceived in nationalist or transnationalist terms? That was the deeper conflict that underlay the ballet vs. modern dance debates of the early 1930s.


2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (05) ◽  
pp. 362-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federica Sullo ◽  
Agata Polizzi ◽  
Stefano Catanzaro ◽  
Selene Mantegna ◽  
Francesco Lacarrubba ◽  
...  

Cerebellotrigeminal dermal (CTD) dysplasia is a rare neurocutaneous disorder characterized by a triad of symptoms: bilateral parieto-occipital alopecia, facial anesthesia in the trigeminal area, and rhombencephalosynapsis (RES), confirmed by cranial magnetic resonance imaging. CTD dysplasia is also known as Gómez-López-Hernández syndrome. So far, only 35 cases have been described with varying symptomatology. The etiology remains unknown. Either spontaneous dominant mutations or de novo chromosomal rearrangements have been proposed as possible explanations. In addition to its clinical triad of RES, parietal alopecia, and trigeminal anesthesia, CTD dysplasia is associated with a wide range of phenotypic and neurodevelopmental abnormalities.Treatment is symptomatic and includes physical rehabilitation, special education, dental care, and ocular protection against self-induced corneal trauma that causes ulcers and, later, corneal opacification. The prognosis is correlated to the mental development, motor handicap, corneal–facial anesthesia, and visual problems. Follow-up on a large number of patients with CTD dysplasia has never been reported and experience is limited to few cases to date. High degree of suspicion in a child presenting with characteristic alopecia and RES has a great importance in diagnosis of this syndrome.


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