scholarly journals Efektivitas Fiskal - Moneter: Strategi Pemulihan Ekonomi Provinsi Riau Dalam Menghadapi Era New Normal

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Dwi Widiarsih ◽  
Ranti Darwin ◽  
Khairi Murdy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

This research use an empirical test of long-term balance and co-integration between macroeconomic variables, fiscal policy and monetary policy. Fiscal policy is represented by government spending variables, while monetary policy is represented by the money supply. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. The research variables are economic growth, government spending and the money supply. The research period uses the period 2010-2019. The data quality test used the unit root test with the Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) method, to see the empirical data stationarity and the cointegration value of the variables. The research shows that the data is stationary in first difference. Based on the results of the VECM test, it can be concluded that there is a stable long-term relationship between variables and the research model. The results of data processing showed that the most effective policy for changing economic growth in Riau Province was fiscal policy, namely government spending. This can be seen from the contribution of fiscal policy to the variability of economic growth which is the largest compared to the contribution of monetary policy

scholarly journals An Empirical Study on Monetary Policy and Economic Growth: The case of Indonesia using an ARDL – ECM Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 5908-5922
Author(s):  
Samoon Safiullah Et al.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Integration Approach ◽  
Stationary Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller

This study explores the role of monetary policy instruments, particularly through the board money supply and inflation, in support of economic growth in Indonesia. The research base on the long-run co-integration approach using the data from 1970 to 2019. The goal of this study complies with applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Error Correction Model (ECM), for finding out the long-run co-integration approach among dependents and independent variables. The research includes the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test for stationary analysis. The ECM results show that inflation plays a significant but negative role in economic growth in Indonesia. On the other hand, the money supply has also inversely related to the country's economic growth but not significant

scholarly journals An econometric analysis of the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Nadar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

This study investigatesthe effectiveness of fiscal policy and monetary policy in India. We collected thetime series data for India ranging from 1960 to 2019 from World Development Indicator (WDI). Weapplied the bound test co-integration approach to check the long-run relationship between fiscalpolicy, monetary policy, and economic growth in the context of Indian economy. The short-run andlong-run effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy have been estimated using ARDL models. Theresults showed that there is a long-run relationship between fiscal and monetary policies witheconomic growth. The estimated short-run coefficients indicated that a few immediate short runimpacts of fiscal and monetary policies are insignificant. However, the short-run impacts becomesignificant as time passes. The long-run results suggested that the long-run impact of both fiscal andmonetary policies on economic growth are positive and significant. More specifically, the GDP levelincreases if the money supply and government expenditure increase (Expansionary fiscal andmonetary policies). On the other hand, the GDP level decreasesif the money supply and governmentexpenditure decrease (contractionary fiscal and monetary policies). Therefore, this studyrecommends to use expansionary policies to spur the Indian economy.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Instruments on Economic Growth in Jordan Using Vector Error Correction Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 194
Author(s):  
Rami Obeid ◽  
Bassam Awad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

The global financial crisis emphasized the important role of the prudent monetary policy in supporting economic growth through maintaining price stability. The monetary policy operational framework that was designed in 2008 was updated to include more instruments for managing monetary policy learning from the crisis lessons. Several studies analyzed various dimensions related to economic growth in Jordan such as Abdul-Khaliq, Soufan, and Abu Shihab (2013) and Assaf (2014), there were no studies that investigated the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Jordan, at least recently, however. The study aims at measuring the effect of monetary policy instruments on the performance of Jordanian economy. Using quarterly data covering the period (2005-2015), an econometric model was examined using Vector Error Correction Model to assess the impact of monetary policy instruments on economic growth. The foremost advantage of VECM is that it has a nice interpretation of long-term and short-term equations. The results showed the existence of positive long-term and short-term effects of monetary policy instruments on the growth of real GDP. The model included three monetary policy instruments besides money supply. They are required reserve ratio, rediscount rate and overnight interbank loan rates as independent variables, and the real GDP growth as a dependent variable. The stationarity of the model time series was addressed. In addition, the stability of the model was tested using stability diagnostics tools. The results showed also an existence of inverse relationship between rediscount rate and economic growth in Jordan over both long and short terms.

Government Expenditure on Infrastructure as a Driver for Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
Amadi Kelvin Chijioke ◽  
Alolote Ibim Amadi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Inverse Effect ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Government

This study primary examines the effects of government infrastructural expenditure on economic development in Nigeria. Secondary data sourced from reported annual spending on selected infrastructure and annual Gross Domestic Products were statistically analyzed. The data treatments used for the secondary data were unit root and co-integration tests using Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip–Perron model. Weighted least square was also used to test the sample of 37-year annual time series using vector error correction model. The data analysis was done with descriptive statistics. Findings from the study revealed that government spending on transport, communication, education and health infrastructure have significant effects on economic growth; spending on agriculture and natural resources infrastructure recorded a significant inverse effect on economic growth in Nigeria. An element of fiscal illusion was observed in the government spending on agriculture and natural resources indicating that government is not contributing as much as the private sector in spending on agriculture and natural resources infrastructure in Nigeria.

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Bangladesh

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 497-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swati Anindita Sarker ◽  
Shouyang Wang ◽  
K M Mehedi Adnan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Different Sources

Abstract The empirical investigation that examines the dynamics including the interaction between consumption of energy and economic progress has long been assessed. However, the interaction of these two in developing countries in general and Bangladesh, in particular, is a less explored subject. Hence, with this notion, this study examined the causal relationship among economic growth and energy consumption in Bangladesh. For this purpose, the study used energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), labor force, and capital data from 1981 to 2017 from different sources and data is analyzed by augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen co-integration test and Granger test of causality. Results determine that energy consumption and economic growth have long term bi-directional relationship. The econometric model is estimated using generalized least squares (GLS) model. It is concluded that, consumption of energy and economic growth positively correlated and economic development highly depend on energy consumption in Bangladesh.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Long Run Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Application of the Vector Error Correction Mechanism

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-83
Author(s):  
Vincent Iorja GISAOR
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Error Correction Mechanism

The inability of most developing economies to use monetary policy to engender real economic growth in their countries prompted the researchers to empirically assess the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2014. The study employed an econometrics approach making use of the ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration, Vector error correction model, Pairwise granger causality test and variance decomposition. The Vector Error Correction Mechanism result shows a positive short and long run relationship between both narrow money supply and broad money supply and economic growth in Nigeria with model strength of 75%. The Pairwise granger causality test shows a bi-directional causality between broad money supply and economic growth in Nigeria and was statistically significant at 5% level of confidence. Recommendations were for the government to use her contractionary monetary efforts and implement relevant policies to curtail the inverse effect of the persistent variation in the value of exchange rate, price level and interest rate in Nigeria and adequate regulation of the quantity of money in circulation to avoid hyperinflation and other unpredictable monetary volatilities.

Stimulative monetary policy: Myths and reality

2017 ◽  
pp. 5-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin ◽  
E. Goryunov ◽  
P. Trunin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Credit Markets ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Production Capacities ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

In the paper we critically assess the stimulative monetary policy, proposed by the Stolypin Club and other experts. We discuss its inflationary consequences, the ability to accelerate economic growth along with created distortions in credit markets. We argue that the long-term macroeconomic stability cannot be sustained under managed exchange rate. We provide counterarguments to views, according to which inflation in Russia has nonmonetary roots and it is possible to increase money supply without causing inflation due to undermonetization of Russian economy and low utilization of production capacities. Negative consequences of monetary easing are illustrated with recent Belorussian experience.

scholarly journals Empirical Test on Impact of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on Vietnam Stock Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Tu Tran Thi Thanh ◽  
Linh Pham Thuy ◽  
Tiep Nguyen Anh ◽  
Thuy Do Thi ◽  
Tho Thi Hoai Truong
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Exogenous Factors

This research evaluates impact of monetary policy tools and fiscal policies on Vietnam’s stock market, as well as examines interaction between these two policies with the Vietnam stock price index. Utilizing Vector error correction model (VECM), with 9 variables and data monthly statistics from January 2002 to October 2015, this study confirms that there are links between monetary policy, fiscal policy with Vietnam's stock market. In addition, Vietnam’s stock market is also affected by exogenous factors, namely the world oil prices and the S&P500 index, especially when Vietnam's economy is opening up and integrated with the global economy.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Private Sector Credit Interaction in Ghana

2020 ◽  
pp. 180-191
Author(s):  
Alice Constance Mensah ◽  
Ebenezer Okyere
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

Using a series of econometric techniques, the study analysed interaction between monetary policy and private sector credit in Ghana. This study made use of monthly dataset spanning January 1999 to December 2019 of credit to the private sector (PSC) and broad money supply (M2). The results reveal that there exists cointegration, a long run stationary relation between monetary policy and private sector credit. This implies, increases in credit should prompt long-term increases in monetary policy. It is not surprising that growth in the private sector might have a stronger effect on monetary policy. The Error Correction Test is statistically significant and that all the variables demonstrate similar adjustment speeds. This implies that in the short run, both money supply and credit are somewhat equally responsive to their last period’s equilibrium error. There is unidirectional causation from private sector credit to monetary policy. It can be said that, there is an interaction between money supply and private sector credit. Thus, credit to private sector holds great potential in promoting economic growth. It can be recommended to the government to increase the credit flow to the private sector because of its strategic importance in creating and generating growth of the economy.

Money supply and inflation impact on economic growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dinh Doan Van
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Karl Marx ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

Purpose At present, countries are concerned about inflation and the impact of inflation on each country’s economic growth. This inflation has been said by economists that inflation is a phenomenon of currency and currency, which has caused inflation in some countries by their monetary policy. According to the economic theory of Karl Marx, Irving Fisher, Friedman, inflation is caused by a continuous increase in the money supply. Design/methodology/approach The economic theories of Fisher, Friedman and an econometric model are applied to analyse the relationship between money supply and inflation. Besides, Vietnam’s and China’s research data are also collected in the period of 2012-2016. Findings It is found out that the continuous increase in the money supply causes inflation in the long-term, but the continuous increase in the money supply growth does not cause inflation in a short time, this was analyzed based on the theory of monetary quantity. Moreover, Chia’s and Vietnam’s correlations of the money supply growth and inflation are 99.1 per cent. These correlations are very close. Originality/value Research results show that money supply and inflation are closely related, and the money supply directly affects economic growth. Therefore, the government should have the relevant monetary policy to grow the economy and proposals to make monetary policy, control inflation levels and stimulate economic growth.

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