ANALISIS KAUSALITAS KEMISKINAN, PEKERJA ANAK DAN PUTUS SEKOLAH DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Selvia ◽  
Yeniwati Yeniwati
Keyword(s):  
Child Labor ◽  
Child Protection ◽  
Drop Out ◽  
Dropout Rates ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Inductive Analysis

This study was conducted to determine and analyze the relationship between poverty variables, child labor and dropout rates in Indonesia and how the response of a variable due to the shock of other variables. This type of research is descriptive and associative research, with the data used are secondary data types, namely panel data from 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2010 to 2018 with data collection techniques documentation and literature studies obtained from related institutions and institutions namely the Central Statistics Agency and the Ministry of Women's Empowerment and Child Protection. Analysis of the data used in this research is descriptive analysis and inductive analysis. In the inductive analysis there are several tests that must be performed, namely: (1) Unit root test, (2) Determination of Optimum Lag, (3) Stability Test, (4) Granger Causality Test, (5) Cointegration Test, (6) PVAR Test , (7) IRF test and (8) VD testThe results in this study explain that (1) poverty and child labor do not have a causality relationship only has a one-way relationship while poverty and drop out have a causality relationship. Furthermore, child labor and dropout rates have a causal relationship. The FEVD analysis explains that (4) In the short term child labor and dropout rates do not contribute to influencing the movement of poverty in Indonesia while in the long run child labor shocks and dropout rates affect the variability of poverty in Indonesia. (5) In the short term the variability of child labor is only affected by poverty while in the long run poverty shocks and dropout rates affect the movement of child labor in Indonesia. (6) variability in the number of dropouts in the short and long term is influenced by poverty shocks and dropout rates.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saliha Meftah ◽  
Abdelkader Nassour
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Causality Relationship

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an essential factor in the development of a country. This study aims to examine what factors influence foreign direct investment. By using the vector error correction model, the research shows that there is a long-term causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation with FDI. However, in the short term, there are no variables that affect FDI. Besides, the Granger causality test shows causality in the direction of GDP and FDI, while other variables do not have causality. This research has implications for policymakers to pay attention to macroeconomic variables in increasing the flow of foreign direct investment.

scholarly journals The causal relationship between current account and financial account balance in Western Balkan countries: The case of Serbia

Bankarstvo ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-41
Author(s):  
Radovan Kovačević
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The Western Balkans (WB) countries registered an increase in the current account (CA) deficit and net capital inflow in the period before the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 2008. The external debt of these countries has increased. The aim of this paper is to examine the causality relationship between the CA and financial accounts (FA) balance of Serbia. A framework for the empirical analysis is the vector autoregression (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model. Using the Johansen cointegration test, we find the existence of a long-run causality relationship between these two variables. The estimated long-run coefficient on the FA variable as an independent variable shows that an increase of Serbia's FA balance by 1% leads to an increase in the CA deficit of Serbia by 0.58%. Applying the Granger causality test, it was found that causality runs from FA to the CA, which implies recommendations for economic policymakers. The finding indicates the need to continuously check the sustainability of the CA deficit of Serbia, as well as to monitor the level of presence of foreign capital in the Serbian economy.

scholarly journals Relationship Economic Growth with Foreign Direct Investment

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 49-68
Author(s):  
Prince Charles Heston Runtunuwu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The One

This study aims to determine the one-way causality relationship between foreign investment and economic growth, a one-way causality relationship between economic growth and foreign investment, and a two-way causality relationship between foreign investment and economic growth in Indonesia. This was conducted in Indonesia, the data are secondary data taken using the method time series from 1971 to 2018 from the official websites, the Investment Coordinating Board, and literature sources, Foreign Investment and Gross Domestic Product. (1) in the long run the Economic Growth variable has a significant effect on Foreign Direct Investment, and vice versa; and (2) the Foreign Direct Investment variable has a significant effect on Economic Growth; (3) in the short term, the Economic Growth variable has an influence on Foreign Direct Investment, and vice versa; and the Foreign Direct Investment variable has an influence on Economic Growth. It is possible to have a better long-term relationship, bringing positive impact on economic growth in Indonesia when investment in Indonesia increases. Conversely, when economic growth decreases, it means that foreign investment is also low. Granger Causality test, shows a two-way causality relationship between Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment and vice versa. It is necessary to maintain growth to attract foreign direct investment, as well as foreign investment. Investment climate needs to be improved enabling to invest in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Modeling The Relationships Between Export, Import, Inflation, Interest Rate, and Rupiah Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Nina Valentika ◽  
Vivi Iswanti Nursyirwan ◽  
Ilmadi Ilmadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Long Run

This research was a modification of research by Catalbas (2016) and Pratikto (2012). The model that can separate long-term and short-term components are the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study aimed to model export, import, inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate using VECM and to test the causality between variables using the Granger Causality test. The inter-variable model obtained in this study was VECM with lag 2 using a deterministic trend with the assumption of none intercept no trend and two cointegrations. In export and import, there was an adjustment mechanism from the short-term to the long-term. This research model was appropriate to forecast the export and import where VECM with export and import as the target variables, the cointegration equation (long-run model) for  cointegration equation (long-run model) for Based on the Granger Causality test, it was found that there was a one-way relationship between exchange rates and inflation, export and interest rates, export and import, inflation and export, and import and the interest rate at the significance level of 5%.

scholarly journals An econometric modelling of the savings – investments nexus for Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-56
Author(s):  
Samuel Asuamah Yeboah ◽  
◽  
Boateng Kwadwo Prempeh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Break ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Predictive Test ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Introduction. The problem under discussion is whether savings are associated with investments in the long-term and whether savings predict investment with feedback or not. Addressing the problem is important since it informs policy formulation in the financial sector in ensuring efficient financial intermediation. The purpose of the article is looks at the savings-investment relationship for Ghana during the period 1960 to 2016. Methodology. Utilizing ARDL (with bounds testing) approach, the Granger predictive test, the Generalised Impulse Response Function, and Variance decomposition function. Results. The results indicate that a 1% increase in savings, GDP and financial development would result in a 0.069%, 0.266% and 0.125% increase respectively in investment in the short-term. It is discovered that savings do not cause investment in the long-run but rather in the short-run. The Granger causality test establishes a unidirectional causality running from savings to investment in the short-run. Discussion and Conclusion. The ramifications of the finding are that there is capital fixed status globally. Future examinations ought to consider structural break(s) issues as well as panel analysis to determine if the findings of the current study would be reproduced.

scholarly journals The effect of foreign direct investment on financial development

2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-40
Author(s):  
Ayman Abdalmajeed Alsmadi ◽  
Mohammad Salem Oudat
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
Causality Relationship

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between foreign direct investments and financial development in Bahrain. The estimation financial development effects was performed for the period 1978 to 2015, which covers the political conflicts that recently happened in Middle East area (Arab Spring). On the other hand, the paper sought to examine the causality relationship between foreign direct investments and financial development. The study empirically investigates the short and long run equilibrium relationship between the variables by applied co-integration and Autoregressive Distributed Lags Approach (ARDL). The Granger causality test was employed to capture causality relationship. The obtained results show that there is a significant positive relationship between FDI and financial development in short and long run, while, a significant negative relationship between Arab Spring and financial development. However, the results also revealed bidirectional causality relationship between FDI and financial development.

scholarly journals Stock market and foreign direct investment in Zimbabwe

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 54-60
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Host Country ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Multinational Firms ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Relationship

This study investigates the causality relationship between stock market and foreign direct investment. The subject has been contentious in recent years with three theoretical rationales emerging. The first being that FDI net inflows boost stock market by increasing the amount of funds into the host country’ economy. The second suggests that FDI inflows forces the host country government to embrace market friendly policies, regulations and controls that end up boosting stock market. The third theoretical rationale mentions that well-developed and functioning stock markets attracts FDI as multinational firms perceive such a market as a friendly environment whose government is more open to the international community. Using the bi-variate causality test framework, this study discovered that there exists a long run relationship between stock market and FDI net inflows in Zimbabwe. However, the direct causality relationship from either stock market to FDI or from FDI to stock market development could not be found. This implies that stock market development and FDI net inflows in Zimbabwe are indirectly related to each other via some factors whose investigation should be a subject of another research.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daouda Coulibaly ◽  
Fulgence Zran Goueu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.

scholarly journals Is there a relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Zimbabwe?

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 283-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Scaling Up ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Third ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capacity Improvement ◽  
Causality Relationship

This paper investigated the causality relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Zimbabwe using a bi-variate time series framework for the period 1980 to 2011. The causality relationship between the two variables has been a subject of extensive debate for decades among economists and academics. There are four dominant perspectives with regard to the causality relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. The first perspective maintains electricity consumption spur economic growth whilst the second perspective argues that it is economic growth that drives electricity consumption. The third perspective suggests that both electricity consumption and economic growth promotes each other whilst the fourth perspective argues that there is no causality relationship at all between the two variables both in the short and long run. Using the bi-variate causality test framework, this study failed to establish any direct causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The results imply the existence of an indirect bi-directional causality relationship between the two variables. The study therefore recommends Zimbabwe authorities to address indirect factors that have a bearing on economic growth over and above scaling up investment efforts into electricity production capacity improvement infrastructure

scholarly journals Stochastic Pattern of Major Indices of Bombay Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 6774-6779
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Portfolio Managers

It is interesting to get inside and draw a meaningful inference by studying the movement of various stock indices. Portfolio managers, analysts, and investors are very keen to know about the technical pattern of indices. They consider the stock market is one of the economic barometers or market indicators of an economy. Indian financial market has undergone radical and vital change during the past few years. The purpose of this study is to check stochastic movements in selected indices and to signify nexus and interdependency among one another by the virtue of econometric analysis. The study comprises of daily closing value from 1st April 2014-1st April 2018, including major indices i.e. S&P-BSE 100; S&P-BSE-200, S&P BSE-500, S&P-BSE:Large cap, S&P-BSE:Mid-cap, S&P-BSE:small-cap, and BSE-SENSEX. Moreover, typical econometrics tool Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Granger Causality Test, and Johansen Co-integration Test were implemented to conclude the result. The study is one of its kinds to analyze the static and pair wise relationship among seven BSE indices along with the direction of their expected future movement that would help practitioners, policy makers and investors in anticipating the future movement of the indices. The Dickey-Fuller and Johanson test administered to analyze unit root and co-integration among the series in long run, followed by Granger causality test to observe the route of the short term relationship among various indices. The tests reveal uni-directional and in some cases bi-directional causality in selected indices. Further, it has been observed that due to co-integration, prices of different indices can’t move far away from one another [1]. This stochastic study delves volatility pattern of some major indices of Bombay stock exchange with the help of econometric tools. It clearly delineates nexus of all the indices and provided an explanation to appreciate concrete conduct of one series into a mutual relationship. Hence, investors or analyst may predict the movements, interdependency and their relationship in a significant manner.

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