scholarly journals MANAGEMENT OF LABOR SYSTEM BASED ON STATISTICAL MODELS AND SIMULATION

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (3) ◽  
pp. 82-93
Author(s):  
Alexandr Sergeevich Shilnikov ◽  
Artur Aleksandrovich Mitsel
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Significant Progress ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Piece Rate ◽  
Probability Densities ◽  
Labor System

The article considers the problem of the development of decision-making systems in relation to the system of remuneration of labor (LRS) at enterprises. For the introduction of new, more modern and effective types of LRS, decision-makers currently do not have adequate tools. Thus, there is a problem of developing decision support systems (DSS). The key element of the DSS is the LRS models, which provide predictive analytics. However, the compilation of a LRS model is a difficult task due to the factor of randomness and multivariance of LRS. To solve the problem, two approaches to the creation of LRS models are proposed: developing the statistical analytical models and creating the simulation models. In the study, the first approach is considered, namely, an analytical statistical model of one of the piece-rate system is proposed. Formulas are obtained for the probability densities of the resulting indicators of the piece-rate LRS, the statistical characteristics of the indicators and the assessment of the risk of ineffective LRS use are calculated. This will allow significant progress in the development of DSS in the field of labor economics and personnel management

scholarly journals Enterprise Compensation System Statistical Modeling for Decision Support System Development

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 3126
Author(s):  
Artur Mitsel ◽  
Aleksandr Shilnikov ◽  
Pavel Senchenko ◽  
Anatoly Sidorov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Statistical Modeling ◽  
Support System ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
System Development ◽  
Compensation System ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Probability Densities

This article raises the issue of decision support system (DSS) development in enterprises concerning the compensation system (CS). The topic is relevant as the CS is one of the main components in human resource management in business. A key element of such DSSs is CS models that provide predictive analytics. Such models are able to give information about how a particular CS affects output, product quality, employee satisfaction, and wage fund. Thus, the main goal of this article is to obtain a CS statistical model and its formulas for determining the probability densities of resultant indicators. To achieve this goal, the authors conducted several blocks of research. Firstly, mathematical formalization of CS functionality was described. Secondly, a statistical model of CS was built. Thirdly, calculations of CS result indicators were made. Reliable scientific methods were used: black box modeling and statistical modeling. This article proposes a statistical and analytical model. As an example, a piecework-bonus system statistical model is demonstrated. The discussion derives formulas of integral estimations showing the probability density of the resulting CS indicators and the related statistical characteristics. These results can be used to predict the behavior of the workforce. This constitutes the scientific novelty of the study, which will establish significant advances in the development of DSSs in the field of labor economics and HR management.

Geo-Information Support in Management of Urban Disasters

2006 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-69
Author(s):  
Sisi Zlatanova ◽  
Peter van Oosterom ◽  
Edward Verbree
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Recovery Phase ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Technical Equipment ◽  
Fire Departments ◽  
Urban Disaster ◽  
Disaster Situation ◽  
Actual Response

Within the management of urban disasters, geo-information systems (GIS) are used in any of the phases of mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery as most of the required data have a spatial component. Examples of GIS-based decision support systems on mitigation are found in simulation models of floods and earthquakes. In the preparation phase all kinds of spatial observations and models can be used to predict which areas will be threatened. To prepare for adequately responding in case of an actual disaster, these systems are capable of developing realistic scenarios that are used within training and virtual reality (VR) systems. During the actual response phase geo-information is used intensively: for getting an impression of the environment, for routing, for obtaining up-to-date information about the actual situation, etc. In the recovery phase, there is often a high public and political interest to judge the situation - comparing the pre- and post-disaster situation - and to set priorities for the rebuilding. Despite this potential of GIS-based support for urban disaster management, the use of these systems or even the utilisation of geo-information itself is still very limited in countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The emergency management is usually done with paper maps that are seldom up-to-date. Useful systems to support decision makers in any of the phases of disaster management are nearly completely lacking. To improve the work of decision makers and rescue teams, different premises have to be archived in relation to: meta-information to provide insight on the availability and usefulness of the geo-information itself, the technical equipment of the rescue teams (i.e. communication devices and field computers), and the up-to-date information from the affected areas (images, observations, reports). This paper suggests a framework for “urban and urgent” disaster management to facilitate the work of police forces, fire departments, ambulances and government coordinators in disaster situations by extending and improving the utilisation of geo-information. Within a pre-disaster situation, geo-information support management further can assist planning for prevention and mitigation.

The structure of internal intermittency in turbulent flows at large Reynolds number: experiments on scale similarity

1973 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 537-559 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. W. Van Atta ◽  
T. T. Yeh
Keyword(s):  
Reynolds Number ◽  
Probability Density ◽  
Streamwise Velocity ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Large Reynolds Number ◽  
Higher Moments ◽  
Scale Similarity ◽  
Probability Densities ◽  
Scale Ratio ◽  
Velocity Derivative

Some of the statistical characteristics of the breakdown coefficient, defined as the ratio of averages over different spatial regions of positive variables characterizing the fine structure and internal intermittency in high Reynolds number turbulence, have been investigated using experimental data for the streamwise velocity derivative ∂u/∂tmeasured in an atmospheric boundary layer. The assumptions and predictions of the hypothesis of scale similarity developed by Novikov and by Gurvich & Yaglom do not adequately describe or predict the statistical characteristics of the breakdown coefficientqr,lof the square of the streamwise velocity derivative. Systematic variations in the measured probability densities and consistent variations in the measured moments show that the assumption that the probability density of the breakdown coefficient is a function only of the scale ratio is not satisfied. The small positive correlation between adjoint values ofqr,land measurements of higher moments indicate that the assumption that the probability densities for adjoint values ofqr,lare statistically independent is also not satisfied. The moments ofqr,ldo not have the simple power-law character that is a consequence of scale similarity.As the scale ratiol/rchanges, the probability density ofqr,levolves from a sharply peaked, highly negatively skewed density for large values of the scale ratio to a very symmetrical distribution when the scale ratio is equal to two, and then to a highly positively skewed density as the scale ratio approaches one. There is a considerable effect of heterogeneity on the values of the higher moments, and a small but measurable effect on the mean value. The moments are roughly symmetrical functions of the displacement of the shorter segment from the centre of the larger one, with a minimum value when the shorter segment is centrally located within the larger one.

scholarly journals Incentive provision to farm workers in post-socialist settings: evidence from East Germany and North Kazakhstan

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Petrick
Keyword(s):  
Reference Group ◽  
East Germany ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Time Rate ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Piece Rate ◽  
East German ◽  
Wage Premia ◽  
Piece Rates

This article explores the current practice of motivating agricultural workers in post-socialist settings. In addition, it attempts to evaluate the different wage systems observed in reality and better understand under which conditions they are reformed. It does so by contrasting the experience of two extreme cases representing fast and slow reform advance, East Germany and North Kazakhstan. The primary data for the analysis comes from cross-sectional farm surveys conducted by various researchers in both countries. East German farmers quickly replaced the inherited Soviet-style piece rate payment system by simple time rate schemes, augmented by wage premia for certain performance parameters, especially in livestock. To the contrary, the piece rate approach persists in many farms in North Kazakhstan. Moreover, the latter rarely use non-wage incentives to motivate their workers. In Kazakhstan, farms using either mixed systems or pure piece rates were more productive than the reference group using pure time rates. Labour cost per worker were lowest for pure time rate systems in both countries, followed by mixed bonus systems, whereas pure piece rate systems implied the highest cost in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstani managers tend to move away from the Soviet piece rate system if external investors become engaged in farming operations.

STOCHASTIC MODEL OF INFLOW TO RESERVOIR FOR MEDIUM-TERM HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTS WHEN FLOW REGULATING

2021 ◽  
pp. 124-131
Author(s):  
I. G. VELIEV ◽  
◽  
V. V. ILJINICH
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Balance Accuracy ◽  
Operational Management ◽  
Runoff Model

The article presents a stochastic model of runoff with a five-day discreteness within the water management years. The analysis performed regarding the main statistical characteristics of the inflow to the Krasnodar reservoir has allowed the conclusion that this model, based on a simple Markov chain, satisfies the balance accuracy of hydrological calculations for operational regulation of the runoff. The performed verification calculations have shown that the proposed method for obtaining medium-term runoff forecasts for 5 days, based on the developed stochastic runoff model, is satisfactory to the criteria of efficiency and accuracy of hydrological forecasting methods used in Russia. The specific example has shown that a stochastic runoff model can be useful to decision-makers regarding the operational management of a reservoir in real time.

Epistemological Aspects of Simulation Models for Decision Support

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony H. Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Oscillators ◽  
True Belief ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Kuramoto Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Theoretical Construct ◽  
Formal Definitions ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
The Kuramoto Model

In this paper, the author explores epistemological aspects of simulation with a particular focus on using simulations to provide recommendations to managers and other decision-makers. The author presents formal definitions of knowledge (as justified true belief) and of simulation. The author shows that a simple model, the Kuramoto model of coupled-oscillators, satisfies the simulation definition (and therefore generates knowledge) through a justified mapping from the real world. The author argues that, for more complex models, such a justified mapping requires three techniques: using an appropriate and justified theoretical construct; using appropriate and justified values for model parameters; and testing or other verification processes to ensure that the mapping is correctly defined. The author illustrates these three techniques with experiments and models from the literature, including the Long House Valley model of Axtell et al., the SAFTE model of sleep, and the Segregation model of Wilensky.

Coloured stochastic Petri nets modelling for the reliability and maintenance analysis of multi-state multi-unit systems

2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 476-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhouhang Wang ◽  
Maen Atli ◽  
H. Kondo Adjallah
Keyword(s):  
Petri Nets ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Stochastic Petri Nets ◽  
Repairable Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Markov Graphs ◽  
Maintenance Policies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce a method for modelling the multi-state repairable systems subject to stochastic degradation processes by using the coloured stochastic Petri nets (CSPN). The method is a compact and flexible Petri nets model for multi-state repairable systems and offers an alternative to the combinatory of Markov graphs. Design/methodology/approach – The method is grounded on specific theorems used to design an algorithm for systematic construction of multi-state repairable systems models, whatever is their size. Findings – Stop and constraint functions were derived from these theorems and allow to considering k-out-of-n structure systems and to identifying the minimal cut sets, useful to monitoring the states evolution of the system. Research limitations/implications – The properties of this model will be studied, and new investigations will help to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach in real world, and more complex structure will be considered. Practical implications – The simulation models based on CSPN can be used as a tool by maintenance decision makers, for prediction of the effectiveness of maintenance strategies. Originality/value – The proposed approach and model provide an efficient tool for advanced investigations on the development and implementation of maintenance policies and strategies in real life.

The Decline of the Piece-Rate System in California Canning: Technological Innovation, Labor Management, and Union Pressure, 1890–1947

1986 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 564-601 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Brown ◽  
Peter Philips
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Development ◽  
Hourly Wage ◽  
Historical Case Study ◽  
Payment Systems ◽  
Incentive Systems ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Historical Case ◽  
Piece Rate ◽  
Wage Payment ◽  
Hourly Wage Rate

In the following article, Professors Brown and Philips examine two questions concerning wage payment systems. First, has the prevalence of incentive systems been affected by the rise of the modern corporate enterprise? Second, what has been the effect of institutionalized unionism on the prevalence of incentive systems? Brown and Philips explore these issues through a historical case study of the decline of the piece-rate system in the California canning industry, from which they conclude that in the context of Chandlerian industrial development piece-rate systems tend to give way to more complex incentive and hourly wage-rate systems. They explore this hypothesis further through an examination of historical data on wage payment systems for American manufacturing as a whole.

Predicting the productivity of motor-manual workers in precommercial thinning operations

2007 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luc G LeBel ◽  
Denise Dubeau
Keyword(s):  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Site Factors ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Precommercial Thinning ◽  
Benefit Cost Analysis ◽  
Piece Rate ◽  
Compensation Systems ◽  
Thinning Operations ◽  
Number Of Stems ◽  
Benefit Cost

Precommercial thinning is an important part of intensive management in northern forests. Precommercial thinning is largely carried out by motor manual means, and workers are usually paid on a production basis. To establish a piece-rate system that fairly compensates workers, it is important to accurately predict their production for various site conditions. Based on the observation of 129 workers, a model that predicts the number of hours required to thin one hectare of forest as a function of the number of stems per hectare was developed. It was not possible to detect a statistically significant effect from site factors such as slash, rocks, stumps, and terrain slope. The model is compared with similar attempts reported in the literature. The proposed model will be especially useful to those concerned with labour productivity, compensation systems and benefit-cost analysis in silviculture. Key words: workers' performance, productivity modeling, time consumption, thinning, brushsaw

The Development of Multi-Directional Spatially Reinforced Material Structural Theory

2018 ◽  
Vol 284 ◽  
pp. 146-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
I.V. Magnitsky ◽  
F.R. Odinabekov ◽  
E.S. Sergeeva
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Finite Element Simulation ◽  
Elastic Properties ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Material Model ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Structural Components ◽  
Reinforced Composite ◽  
Element Simulation ◽  
Reinforced Composite Material

Finite-element simulation of the spatially reinforced composite material elastic properties is performed. The simulation models are built in two steps: first, a 4DL-reinforced material model simulating a perfect matrix/rod contact is built; second, an improved simulation model is developed, taking into account the possibility of separation between the composite components. Comparison is made between the results obtained numerically and those based on the existing analytical models. With these finite-element simulation models, it is possible to estimate the required composite elastic properties to be used when designing structural components based on those materials.

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