scholarly journals CHOICE OF SOLUTIONS ON MANAGEMENT OF STATES OF NAVIGATION OR FISHING SITUATIONS

2017 ◽  
pp. 39-43
Author(s):  
Valery Yakovlevich Sarlaev ◽  
Mikhail Mikhailovich Eremin ◽  
Vyacheslav Ivanovich Menshikov
Keyword(s):  
Expert System ◽  
Utility Function ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
The Other ◽  
Software Product ◽  
Dialogue Process ◽  
Vector Estimation ◽  
Extreme Solutions ◽  
To Receive

The problem of the choice of extreme multidimensional solutions of a given finite and admissible set and Pareto optimal, which is received by a person decision maker (PDM) in the dialogue process with the software expert system, was considered. Such a system increasing the level of both navigational safety and the safety of the fishery operates under the condition of "weak" assumptions about the type of structure preferences expressed through a utility function. It is shown that the "weak" assumptions about the form of the utility function in the software product of the expert system can be compensated, if the decision-maker is offered questions formulated on two levels as follows: "For what reduction by one criterion may you agree to receive a predetermined increment on other criteria, provided that other evaluation criteria remain unchanged?" or "What is to choose the reducing in the value of one criterion by a predetermined amount and the increasing the value of the other criterion by a predetermined value or leave the previous criteria values provided that the other evaluation criteria remain unchanged?". It offers the option of mathematical models of "man-machine" dialogues between a decision-maker and software expert system, while ensuring the safety of navigation and the safety of the fishery. As a result of using such dialogues either the only vector estimation, corresponding to the extreme decision of the person decision maker, in terms of its structure of preferences, or some subset of the extreme solutions, which will also contain this estimation, can be obtained.

Collaborative Design Using Trade-Off Satisfying Method in Supervisor System

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomoyuki Miyashita ◽  
Hiroshi Yamakawa
Keyword(s):  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Collaborative Design ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
The Other ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Recent years, financial difficulties led engineers to look for not only the efficiency of the function of a product but also the cost of its development. In order to reduce the time for the development, engineers in each discipline have to develop and improve their objectives collaboratively. Sometimes, they have to cooperate with those who have no knowledge at all for their own disciplines. Collaborative designs have been studied to solve these kinds of the problems, but most of them need some sorts of negotiation among disciplines and assumes that these negotiations will be done successfully. However, in the most cases of real designs, manager of each discipline does not want to give up his or her own objectives to stress on the other objectives. In order to carry out these negotiations smoothly, we need some sort of evaluation criteria which will show efficiency of the product considering the designs by each division and if possible, considering the products of the competitive company, too. In this study, we use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to calculate the efficiency of the design and showed every decision maker the directions of the development of the design. We will call here these kinds of systems as supervisor systems and implemented these systems in computer networks that every decision maker can use conveniently. Through simple numerical examples, we showed the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Global Economic Crisis of 2008-2009: Sources and Roots

2009 ◽  
pp. 18-31
Author(s):  
G. Rapoport ◽  
A. Guerts
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
Production Output ◽  
The One ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Partial Destruction

In the article the global crisis of 2008-2009 is considered as superposition of a few regional crises that occurred simultaneously but for different reasons. However, they have something in common: developed countries tend to maintain a strong level of social security without increasing the real production output. On the one hand, this policy has resulted in trade deficit and partial destruction of market mechanisms. On the other hand, it has clashed with the desire of several oil and gas exporting countries to receive an exclusive price for their energy resources.

scholarly journals Two Remarks on Blackwell's Theorem

2008 ◽  
Vol 45 (02) ◽  
pp. 580-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehud Lehrer ◽  
Eran Shmaya
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Information Structure ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Partial Information ◽  
The Other ◽  
Actual State ◽  
Information Structures ◽  
Comparison Of Experiments ◽  
Classical Characterization ◽  
Blackwell's Theorem

In a decision problem with uncertainty a decision maker receives partial information about the actual state via an information structure. After receiving a signal, he is allowed to withdraw and gets zero profit. We say that one structure is better than another when a withdrawal option exists if it may never happen that one structure guarantees a positive profit while the other structure guarantees only zero profit. This order between information structures is characterized in terms that are different from those used by Blackwell's comparison of experiments. We also treat the case of a malevolent nature that chooses a state in an adverse manner. It turns out that Blackwell's classical characterization also holds in this case.

VP39 The Alphabet Lottery? How NICE Outcomes Vary By Appraisal Committee

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (S1) ◽  
pp. 86-86
Author(s):  
Richard Macaulay ◽  
Lok Wan Liu ◽  
Cornelia Roibu ◽  
Andrea Berardi
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
The Other ◽  
Appraisal Committee ◽  
Technology Appraisal ◽  
The Public ◽  
Chi Squared ◽  
C 50 ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Disciplinary Group ◽  
53 C 55

IntroductionNICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) makes recommendations on the public reimbursement of medicines based on their clinical- and cost-effectiveness. The recommendation is made by an Appraisal Committee (comprising a multi-disciplinary group of independent experts) as part of a technology appraisal. There are four Appraisal Committees (A,B,C,D); this research investigates whether appraisal outcomes vary by committee.MethodsAll publicly-available Final Appraisal Determinations from NICE Single Technology Appraisals (STA) were screened (01/10/2009-14/11/2018) and key data were extracted. Homogeneity in rates of acceptance or rejection across the committees was assessed using Chi-squared tests.ResultsThe Appraisal Committee was identified for 298 technologies, 56% (168/298) of which were ‘recommended’. The number of technologies assessed by each committee was similar (A:79, B:62, C:91, D:66). However, STAs conducted by Committee D were significantly less likely to receive ‘recommended’ outcomes (A:68% [54/79], B:65% [40/62], C:53% [48/91], D:39% [26/66]; p < 0.01). STAs for oncology indications had higher ’not recommended’ outcomes than those for non-oncology indications (25% vs. 9%). The lower ‘recommendation’ rates for committee D persisted across oncology (A:60%, B:83%, C:50%, D:38%; p = 0.01) and non-oncology indications (A:73%, B:53%, C:55%, D:40%; p < 0.01). However, STAs conducted by Committee D were significantly more likely to receive ‘optimized’ recommendations (A:16%, B:21%, C:33%, D: 36%; p < 0.01) and when considering the rates of ‘recommended’ and ‘optimized’ outcomes compared to ‘only in research’ and ‘not recommended’ outcomes, no significant differences were found (A:85%, B: 85%, C:86%, D:76%; p = 0.27).ConclusionsSTAs undertaken by NICE Appraisal Committee D was associated with a significantly lower rate of ‘recommended’ outcomes but tended to an ‘optimized’ recommendation significantly more than the other committees. Further research is needed to determine if this reflects any deviation in uniform implementation of NICE methodology between Committees.

Hearing Rehabilitation in a Patient with Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss in the Only Hearing Ear

2008 ◽  
Vol 19 (03) ◽  
pp. 267-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
David B. Hawkins
Keyword(s):  
Hearing Loss ◽  
Sensorineural Hearing Loss ◽  
Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss ◽  
Sensorineural Hearing ◽  
The Other ◽  
Profound Hearing Loss ◽  
Hearing Rehabilitation ◽  
Aural Rehabilitation ◽  
Product Manager ◽  
Software Product

A case report is presented of a 62-year-old software product manager who had normal hearing in one ear and a congenital profound hearing loss in the other ear and then sustained a sudden sensorineural hearing loss in the only hearing ear. The approach to amplification decisions, cochlear implant evaluation, and rehabilitation options are discussed. Providing aural rehabilitation and continually updating and providing new amplification options and accessories are described. Se presenta un reporte de caso de un gerente de productos de software de 62 años de edad quien tenía audición normal en un oído y un sordera congénita profunda en el otro, y quién súbitamente sufrió una sordera sensorineural súbita en el único oído con audición. Se discute el enfoque de decisiones de amplificación, la evaluación para implante coclear, y las opciones de rehabilitación. Se describen las pautas para proveer rehabilitación aural y para actualizar continuamente y aportar nuevas opciones de amplificación.

The Absence and Influence of Genesis 48 (the Blessing of Ephraim and Manasseh) in the Book of Jubilees

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 255-273
Author(s):  
Pauline P. Buisch
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Literary Influence ◽  
To Receive

While scholars have acknowledged the literary dependence of Jubilees 31 (the blessing of Levi and Judah) on Genesis 48 (the blessing of Ephraim and Manasseh), little work has been done to understand the purpose of this intentional intertextuality. This article examines the literary influence of Genesis 48, the effect of its absence, and the altered roles of Levi, Judah, and Joseph in Jubilees in order to determine why the author made the literary decision to pattern one scene of blessing after the other. This article suggests that the author's decision to omit Genesis 48 and to present not one but two similar scenes of blessing in its place is part of a larger strategy to negotiate the interpretive problem of the prominent status given to Joseph's sons in Genesis 48. By replacing Ephraim and Manasseh with Levi and Judah, but allowing Joseph to receive the double portion of land, the author of Jubilees reflects an interpretive tradition, also found in the Targums, Genesis Rabbah, and the Testaments of the Patriarchs, that understands the inheritance of Jacob to be threefold and distributed three ways—the birthright to Joseph, the priesthood to Levi, and the kingship to Judah.

The perfect Crème Brûlée v2

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
René Bernard
Keyword(s):  
Smooth Surface ◽  
Quality Criteria ◽  
The Other ◽  
Small Parts ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Added Salt

Crème Brûlée has a short ingredient list and does not require specific skills to make, but to get it right, several steps need to be carefully executed to receive the creme, not a pudding that, that is still grainy or liquid. With a caramel crust that offers a perfectly smooth surface you can break with your spoon like ice when you tap on it. Most Crème Brûlées offer one or the other but to get everything right, requires attention to details in the making. Expected results and quality criteria: 1. Crème Brûlée is served refrigerator-cold and 3-5 min after the blow-torching the sugar. Only then you have a smooth and stable caramel surface that you can crack with your spoon. Ideally, the caramel is still pleasantly warm. 2. The creme needs to be uniform and intense yellow, no gristle-like residues in it to disturb the perfect mouth feeling. While the surface is solid, the creamy consistency remains. 3. Taste: The perfect interplay between caramel and vanilla flavors (if small parts of the crust are slightly burnt -compare image - you add just a few bitter notes that make it more interesting. The added salt intensifies the vanilla flavor. 4. The crust needs to be uniform and requires a soon to be broken up in small pieces.

1. On Annelid Tracks in the Exploration of the Millstone Grits in the South-west of the County of Clare.

1857 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 294-295
Author(s):  
Robert Harkness
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Perfect State ◽  
The South ◽  
Great Abundance ◽  
South West ◽  
Soft State ◽  
The One ◽  
To Receive

The author remarks that the existence of Annelida during the Palæozoic formations is manifested in two conditions. In the one, we have the shelly envelope which invests the order Tubicola, in the form of Seapolites; and in the other, the tracks of the orders Abranchia and Dorsi-branchiata are found impressed on deposits which were, at one time, in a sufficiently soft state to receive the impressions of the wanderings of these animals.Among the strata which have hitherto afforded annelid tracks, those which, in the county of Clare, represent a portion of the equivalents of the Millstone Grit, contain such tracks, in their most perfect state of preservation in great abundance; and these strata also furnish evidence concerning the circumstances which prevailed during their deposition.

scholarly journals Moving beyond the cost–loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 2967-2986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Matte ◽  
Marie-Amélie Boucher ◽  
Vincent Boucher ◽  
Thomas-Charles Fortier Filion
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Utility Function ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Cara Utility

Abstract. A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost–loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, forecasts based on meteorological ensembles, and a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of state variable uncertainty. This comparison takes place for the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in southern central Quebec, Canada. The assessment of forecasts is performed for lead times of 1 to 5 days, both in terms of forecasts' quality (relative to the corresponding record of observations) and in terms of economic value, using the new proposed framework based on the CARA utility function. It is found that the economic value of a forecast for a risk-averse decision maker is closely linked to the forecast reliability in predicting the upper tail of the streamflow distribution. Hence, post-processing forecasts to avoid over-forecasting could help improve both the quality and the value of forecasts.

Newbury

1987 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 103-105
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
To Receive ◽  
The Church

815 Notification and confirmation by the abbot of Waverley and the priors of Waverley and [Monk] Sherborne, judges-delegate of Pope Honorius III, of the settlement before them of the action between Reading Abbey, on one side, and the abbot and convent of Préaux [Eure, Normandy] and Gervase clerk of Newbury, on the other, concerning the church of Newbury, which Reading Abbey claimed was a chapel within the parish of Thatcham. The church of Thatcham shall continue to receive 2s annually from the church of Newbury, as before, and the abbot and convent of Préaux shall pay 4s 8d annually to the abbot and convent of Reading, who shall indemnify them in respect of themselves and the clerks holding the other portions of Thatcham church [1216 × 24]Bf193r; Cf112vPd. Barfield, Thatcham, ii. 56Universis Christi fidelibus ad quos presens scriptum pervenerit abbas de Waverleg’a et eiusdem loci et de Syreburn' priores, salutem. Noveritis nos mandatum domini pape in hec verba suscepisse.

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