scholarly journals Forward Guidance and the State of the Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (1612) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin D. Keen ◽  
◽  
Alexander W. Richter ◽  
Nathaniel A. Throckmorton ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
State Of The Economy

scholarly journals State-Dependent Forward Guidance and the Problem of Inconsistent Announcements

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. e1019-e1027
Author(s):  
Julian A. Parra-Polania
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
The State ◽  
Endogenous Variable ◽  
Specific Variable ◽  
Escape Clause ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Low Rate

Abstract Forward guidance can be provided as an unconditional promise, i.e. commitment to a specific low policy rate. Alternatively, the promise may include an escape clause, i.e. a condition defining the state of the economy under which the central bank would not keep such a low rate and, instead, it would revert to setting policy under discretion. The escape clause can be expressed as a threshold in terms of a specific variable. The present paper shows that, when such a threshold is expressed in terms of an endogenous variable (e.g. output, inflation), there are cases where it becomes impossible for the central bank to act in a way that is consistent with its promise. Consistency imposes limits on the policy rate that can be set since reverting immediately to the optimal discretionary rate can be incompatible with exceeding the threshold.

FORWARD GUIDANCE AND THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 1593-1624 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin D. Keen ◽  
Alexander W. Richter ◽  
Nathaniel A. Throckmorton
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
State Of The Economy

Bulgaria’s Economy 1989–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-282
Author(s):  
Georgy Ganev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
The State ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Institutional Economic ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Degree Of Convergence

Based on an analytical narrative, and utilizing macroeconomic and new institutional economic theory, this exposition studies the Bulgarian economy during the decades after 1989. The three decades are placed in the context of the century-and-a-half-long Bulgarian development and convergence dynamic. They are then presented in terms of clearly defined sub-periods, and each sub-period is analyzed in detail. The analysis for each period focuses on three sets of issues: macroeconomic developments, microeconomic developments, and institutional changes. The exposition ends by applying the insights from the analysis to the question of whether the state of the economy in Bulgaria as of 2019 gives grounds for pessimism (Bulgaria will continue the cycles of unsuccessful convergence) or for optimism (Bulgaria will achieve an unprecedented degree of convergence in the coming decades). The answer is that at present both expectations can be supported by sets of serious arguments.

ANALYSIS OF THE STATE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE MAIN INDICATORS OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY OF THE TOKTOGUL REGION OF KYRGYZSTAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 71-73
Author(s):  
M. U. USUPOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
The State ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Agricultural Producers ◽  
Money Markets ◽  
Agricultural Enterprises ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Production Losses

The article is devoted to the state of the economy of the subject of the agricultural sector – the Toktogul region of Kyrgyzstan, as well as the formation of a land division, which is impossible without an influx of investments and ensuring the availability of monetary resources for agricultural producers. In our time, innovation is becoming the main means of increasing the benefits of economic entities by better meeting market demand and reducing production losses compared to competitors. Despite repeated attempts by the country to create a system of lending to agricultural companies, only a small percentage of them use credit resources. Various state aid schemes support a competitive environment in the money markets and guarantee relatively equal access to them for financial institutions and agricultural enterprises.

scholarly journals Circulant Singular Spectrum Analysis to Monitor the State of the Economy in Real Time

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1169
Author(s):  
Juan Bógalo ◽  
Pilar Poncela ◽  
Eva Senra
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Signal Extraction ◽  
Alternative Procedure ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Regular Patterns ◽  
Non Parametric

Real-time monitoring of the economy is based on activity indicators that show regular patterns such as trends, seasonality and business cycles. However, parametric and non-parametric methods for signal extraction produce revisions at the end of the sample, and the arrival of new data makes it difficult to assess the state of the economy. In this paper, we compare two signal extraction procedures: Circulant Singular Spectral Analysis, CiSSA, a non-parametric technique in which we can extract components associated with desired frequencies, and a parametric method based on ARIMA modelling. Through a set of simulations, we show that the magnitude of the revisions produced by CiSSA converges to zero quicker, and it is smaller than that of the alternative procedure.

Analysis of the state of the migration process of the ukrainian population in the context of domestic and international levels

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
M. Shkurat ◽  
K. Pavlotska
Keyword(s):  
Social Protection ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
The State ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Migration Process ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
High Level

Analysis of the migration process of the Ukrainian population, which takes place within the state and at the international level during 2014–2019 is carried out in this paper. On the basis of scientific works of domestic scientists and institutes the problems which have not been investigated, and also aspects which have been solved partially are defined. The negative consequences of the Ukrainian migration process on the state of the country are identified. The classification of migration flows of the Ukrainian population according to the reasons of movement is carried out. The main regions and countries which, as of the beginning of 2021, are more attractive to compatriots and are characterized by significant influxes of Ukrainians are identified. The main centers of departure – regions and countries – which are characterized by high level of outflow of Ukrainians are determined, the main problems and reasons that motivate the outflow of Ukrainians are highlighted in this paper. The level of growth of the Ukrainian population in terms of migration flows is defined. The investigation of Ukrainian diasporas, territorial location and analysis of their share in comparison is carried out. The main factors that force the Ukrainian population to move, which affects the demographic situation in Ukraine, the level of employment, as well as the amount of cash flows to the country and the state of the economy as a whole are identified. The main regulations and identified solutions to the migration flows of the domestic population, which were approved and implemented in the period from 2001 to 2019 are compared in this paper. On the basis of current and newly introduced strategies, critical analysis of the ways of regulating the migration process of the Ukrainian population is carried out, the main aspects and problems of the implemented migration policy of Ukraine are determined. The results of the work are to identify the main ways to reduce the negative impact of the migration process on the country's economy and related processes, and strategies to benefit from the movement of citizens of Ukraine, namely: introduction of intellectual security, revision of wages by region, stimulating the process of attracting technology in all spheres of activity and formation of the social protection system.

Economic development trends and aspects of healthcare reform in Russia under COVID-2019 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 503-513
Author(s):  
Natalya Krivenko
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Health Care System ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Health Financing ◽  
The State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Care System

The article is aimed at studying the state of the Russian economy and health care system before and after the COVID-2019 pandemic, identifying the main trends in the economy and health care, regardless of the pandemic, as well as its impact on the socioeconomic development of the country. The interrelation and mutual influence of the levels of development of the economy and health care of the country is noted. An analysis of the state of the economy and health care system in Russia for 2017–2019 is presented, problems and achievements in the pre-pandemic period are identified. The COVID-2019 pandemic is considered not only from the point of view of a medical manifestation but as a powerful trigger that provoked large-scale socioeconomic changes in the world, as a bifurcation point in world development, requiring states to objectively assess the state of the economy and healthcare, revise the current coordinate system, getting out of the state of uncertainty and choosing promising areas of socioeconomic development. A cross-country analysis of the response of various health systems to the COVID-19 pandemic has shown the advantages of countries with centralized management, health financing, and subordinate sanitary and epidemiological services. Along with the achievements of Russia in the fight against COVID-19, the existing specific problems of the domestic health care system are noted, which negatively affected the preparedness for a pandemic. Analyzed the consequences of the COVID-2019 pandemic for the socio-economic state of countries at the global level. The change in socio-economic indicators in Russia in 2020 compared to 2019 is presented as a result of the consequences of the COVID-2019 pandemic. The main results of the study are to identify the main trends in the development of the economy and the healthcare system in Russia in the context of the ongoing COVID-2019 pandemic, defining the directions of reforming the national healthcare, trajectories of increasing the level of socioeconomic development of the country

Opposition weakness will help Polish ruling coalition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Independent State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Party Control ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Law ◽  
Law And Justice

Significance At the beginning of 2021, the ZP coalition of the Law and Justice (PiS), Accord and United Poland (SP) parties is stable, but not as strong as it has been in previous years. This weakening in the PiS-led government’s condition is due to many factors, among which the coronavirus pandemic is one of the most important. Impacts The process will continue of subordinating any independent state institutions still left to party control. PiS will take further, similar steps regarding the media, academia and NGOs. After months of pandemic lockdown, the state of the economy is stable if not ideal, and will not lead to early elections.

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