scholarly journals Circulant Singular Spectrum Analysis to Monitor the State of the Economy in Real Time

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1169
Author(s):  
Juan Bógalo ◽  
Pilar Poncela ◽  
Eva Senra
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Signal Extraction ◽  
Alternative Procedure ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Regular Patterns ◽  
Non Parametric

Real-time monitoring of the economy is based on activity indicators that show regular patterns such as trends, seasonality and business cycles. However, parametric and non-parametric methods for signal extraction produce revisions at the end of the sample, and the arrival of new data makes it difficult to assess the state of the economy. In this paper, we compare two signal extraction procedures: Circulant Singular Spectral Analysis, CiSSA, a non-parametric technique in which we can extract components associated with desired frequencies, and a parametric method based on ARIMA modelling. Through a set of simulations, we show that the magnitude of the revisions produced by CiSSA converges to zero quicker, and it is smaller than that of the alternative procedure.

scholarly journals Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 141-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan J Auerbach ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
The State ◽  
Government Purchases ◽  
Forecast Data ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Affected Country

For a large number of OECD countries we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output. Following the methodology in Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a, b), we allow these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and use real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. Our findings suggest that cross-country spillovers have an important impact. The findings also confirm those of our earlier papers--namely that fiscal shocks have a larger impact when the affected country is in recession.

Denoising Heavy-Tailed Data Using a Novel Robust Non-Parametric Method Based on Quantile Regression

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (03) ◽  
pp. 1750029 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferdos Gorji ◽  
Mina Aminghafari
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Matrix Decomposition ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Quantile Regressions ◽  
Denoising Method ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
Spectrum Decomposition ◽  
Non Parametric

We propose a new robust and non-parametric denoising method, quantile spectrum decomposition (QSD) that can handle heavy-tailed noise. Our method is an alternative to singular spectrum analysis which is not robust to such noises. In QSD, the trajectory matrix of the signal is decomposed using iterative quantile regressions. This implementation leads to a robust matrix decomposition and robust denoising. Simulations and real data analysis show that QSD is robust to heavy-tailed noise and its performance is promising in the presence of non-heavy-tailed noise.

Bulgaria’s Economy 1989–2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-282
Author(s):  
Georgy Ganev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
The State ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Institutional Economic ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Degree Of Convergence

Based on an analytical narrative, and utilizing macroeconomic and new institutional economic theory, this exposition studies the Bulgarian economy during the decades after 1989. The three decades are placed in the context of the century-and-a-half-long Bulgarian development and convergence dynamic. They are then presented in terms of clearly defined sub-periods, and each sub-period is analyzed in detail. The analysis for each period focuses on three sets of issues: macroeconomic developments, microeconomic developments, and institutional changes. The exposition ends by applying the insights from the analysis to the question of whether the state of the economy in Bulgaria as of 2019 gives grounds for pessimism (Bulgaria will continue the cycles of unsuccessful convergence) or for optimism (Bulgaria will achieve an unprecedented degree of convergence in the coming decades). The answer is that at present both expectations can be supported by sets of serious arguments.

ANALYSIS OF THE STATE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE MAIN INDICATORS OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY OF THE TOKTOGUL REGION OF KYRGYZSTAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 71-73
Author(s):  
M. U. USUPOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
The State ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Agricultural Producers ◽  
Money Markets ◽  
Agricultural Enterprises ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Production Losses

The article is devoted to the state of the economy of the subject of the agricultural sector – the Toktogul region of Kyrgyzstan, as well as the formation of a land division, which is impossible without an influx of investments and ensuring the availability of monetary resources for agricultural producers. In our time, innovation is becoming the main means of increasing the benefits of economic entities by better meeting market demand and reducing production losses compared to competitors. Despite repeated attempts by the country to create a system of lending to agricultural companies, only a small percentage of them use credit resources. Various state aid schemes support a competitive environment in the money markets and guarantee relatively equal access to them for financial institutions and agricultural enterprises.

scholarly journals Modeling Post-Liberalized European Gas Market Concentration—A Game Theory Perspective

Forecasting ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Hassan Hamie ◽  
Anis Hoayek ◽  
Hans Auer
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Linear Complementarity Problems ◽  
Market Concentration ◽  
Cournot Equilibrium ◽  
Gas Markets ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
Equilibrium Test ◽  
Non Parametric

The question of whether the liberalization of the gas industry has led to less concentrated markets has attracted much interest among the scientific community. Classical mathematical regression tools, statistical tests, and optimization equilibrium problems, more precisely non-linear complementarity problems, were used to model European gas markets and their effect on prices. In this research, the parametric and nonparametric game theory methods are employed to study the effect of the market concentration on gas prices. The parametric method takes into account the classical Cournot equilibrium test, with assumptions on cost and demand functions. However, the non-parametric method does not make any prior assumptions, a factor that allows greater freedom in modeling. The results of the parametric method demonstrate that the gas suppliers’ behavior in Austria and The Netherlands gas markets follows the Nash–Cournot equilibrium, where companies act rationally to maximize their payoffs. The non-parametric approach validates the fact that suppliers in both markets follow the same behavior even though one market is more liquid than the other. Interestingly, our findings also suggest that some of the gas suppliers maximize their ‘utility function’ not by only relying on profit, but also on some type of non-profit objective, and possibly collusive behavior.

scholarly journals Single-Satellite Integrated Navigation Algorithm Based on Broadband LEO Constellation Communication Links

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 703
Author(s):  
Lvyang Ye ◽  
Yikang Yang ◽  
Xiaolun Jing ◽  
Jiangang Ma ◽  
Lingyu Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Satellite Communication ◽  
The State ◽  
Earth Orbit ◽  
Integrated Navigation ◽  
Location Services ◽  
The Real ◽  
Navigation Algorithm ◽  
Communication Links ◽  
Leo Satellite

With the rapid development of satellite technology and the need to satisfy the increasing demand for location-based services, in challenging environments such as indoors, forests, and canyons, there is an urgent need to improve the position accuracy in these environments. However, traditional algorithms obtain the position solution through time redundancy in exchange for spatial redundancy, and they require continuous observations that cannot satisfy the real-time location services. In addition, they must also consider the clock bias between the satellite and receiver. Therefore, in this paper, we provide a single-satellite integrated navigation algorithm based on the elimination of clock bias for broadband low earth orbit (LEO) satellite communication links. First, we derive the principle of LEO satellite communication link clock bias elimination; then, we give the principle and process of the algorithm. Next, we model and analyze the error of the system. Subsequently, based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), we model the state vector and observation vector of our algorithm and give the state and observation equations. Finally, for different scenarios, we conduct qualitative and quantitative analysis through simulations, and the results show that, whether in an altimeter scenario or non-altimeter scenario, the performance indicators of our algorithm are significantly better than the inertial navigation system (INS), which can effectively overcome the divergence problem of INS; compared with the medium earth orbit (MEO) constellation, the navigation trajectory under the LEO constellation is closer to the real trajectory of the aircraft; and compared with the traditional algorithm, the accuracy of each item is improved by more than 95%. These results show that our algorithm not only significantly improves the position error, but also effectively suppresses the divergence of INS. The algorithm is more robust and can satisfy the requirements of cm-level real-time location services in challenging environments.

Nonlinear error signal extraction technique for real-time digital automatic control of optical interferometers

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Barone ◽  
Enrico Calloni ◽  
Luciano DiFiore ◽  
Aniello Grado ◽  
Leopoldo Milano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Automatic Control ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Signal Extraction ◽  
Extraction Technique ◽  
Error Signal ◽  
Nonlinear Error ◽  
Optical Interferometers

A Survey of Real-Time Industrial Wireless LAN Research

2015 ◽  
Vol 738-739 ◽  
pp. 1105-1110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Qing Qin ◽  
Ying Jie Cheng ◽  
Chun Jie Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Wireless Lan ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
The State ◽  
Local Networks ◽  
The Real ◽  
Time Requirements ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Fundamental Mechanism

This paper mainly surveys the state-of-the-art on real-time communicaton in industrial wireless local networks(WLANs), and also identifys the suitable approaches to deal with the real-time requirements in future. Firstly, this paper summarizes the features of industrial WLANs and the challenges it encounters. Then according to the real-time problems of industrial WLAN, the fundamental mechanism of each recent representative resolution is analyzed in detail. Meanwhile, the characteristics and performance of these resolutions are adequately compared. Finally, this paper concludes the current of the research and discusses the future development of industrial WLANs.

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