A Computer Model of the Spread of the Pandemic and its Analysis

The paper describes and analyzes a mathematical model of the variable state of the incidence of epidemic diseases, which is of great importance for determining the quantity of vaccines and antiviral drugs to be produced. The information model according to the system of differential equations of the spread of the pandemic is illustrated in a structural diagram. The model is presented in a vector-matrix form and the state of equilibrium of the model in the spatial state is proved.The model of the spread of the pandemic was developed, whose implementation with a Matlab software package resulted in obtaining the curves of variation of the state. The developed computer model of the incidence of epidemic diseases can be used to make a projection of the number of infected people, as well as intensity of the process of disseminating information and ideas in the community.

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A dynamic optimal control model for COVID-19 and cholera co-infection in Yemen

Advances in Difference Equations ◽

10.1186/s13662-021-03271-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ibrahim M. Hezam ◽

Abdelaziz Foul ◽

Adel Alrasheedi

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Optimal Control ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Control Model ◽

Model Parameters ◽

System Of Differential Equations ◽

Model Framework ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Infected People ◽

The Cost

AbstractIn this work, we propose a new dynamic mathematical model framework governed by a system of differential equations that integrates both COVID-19 and cholera outbreaks. The estimations of the model parameters are based on the outbreaks of COVID-19 and cholera in Yemen from January 1, 2020 to May 30, 2020. Moreover, we present an optimal control model for minimizing both the number of infected people and the cost associated with each control. Four preventive measures are to be taken to control the outbreaks: social distancing, lockdown, the number of tests, and the number of chlorine water tablets (CWTs). Under the current conditions and resources available in Yemen, various policies are simulated to evaluate the optimal policy. The results obtained confirm that the policy of providing resources for the distribution of CWTs, providing sufficient resources for testing with an average social distancing, and quarantining of infected individuals has significant effects on flattening the epidemic curves.

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Evaluation of the possibility of using simulation modeling to predict the ferroresonance process in electrical networks.

Transaction Kola Science Cetnre ◽

10.37614/2307-5252.2020.7.19.011 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (7-2020) ◽

pp. 86-92

Author(s):

Ivan N. Morozov ◽

◽

Semen M. Kudryashov ◽

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Differential Equations ◽

Simulation Modeling ◽

Software Package ◽

Power Transformer ◽

Electrical Networks ◽

System Of Differential Equations ◽

Matlab Software ◽

Modeling Environment ◽

Three Phase

The article presents the results of assessing the possibility of using simulation modeling to predict the ferroresonant process in electrical networks. A mathematical model of a three-phase power transformer in the form of a system of differential equations is considered. The MatLab software package was chosen as the modeling environment. In the conclusion of the work, the results of simulation were analyzed and the correspondingconclusions were drawn.

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Specifity of Including of Structural Nonlinearity in Model of Dynamics of Cable-Driven Robot

Mekhatronika Avtomatizatsiya Upravlenie ◽

10.17587/mau.22.547-552 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (10) ◽

pp. 547-552

Author(s):

Ya. V. Kalinin ◽

E. A. Marchuk

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Computer Model ◽

Activation Functions ◽

System Of Differential Equations ◽

Unilateral Constraints ◽

Cable System ◽

Symbolic Computations ◽

Structural Nonlinearity ◽

The Mathematical Model ◽

Cable Robots

The paper deals with a problem of modeling of the dynamics of a parallel cable-driven robot with the inclusion of structural nonlinearity of cables in a mathematical model. Mathematical model is implemented in a computer model with the possibility of using of symbolic calculations. Parallel cable robots as a type of robotics have been developing in the last two or three decades. The research in the theoretical field was being carried out and the mathematical model of the cable system was being refined with the spread of the practical use of cable robots. This is a non-trivial task to draw up a dynamic model of a cable-driven robot. Cable-driven robots are highly nonlinear systems, because of the main reason for the nonlinearity is the properties of the cable system. As an element of a mechanical system, the cable or the wire rope is a unilateral constraint, since the cable works only for stretching, but not for compression. Thus, the cables are structurally nonlinear elements of the system. On the other hand, cables have the property of sagging under their own weight. Thus, the cables are geometrically nonlinear elements of the system. Under the condition of a payload mass that is utterly greater than the mass of each cable, the cables can be considered strained without sagging and geometric nonlinearity can be neglected. Since symbolic computations can be used in a computer model which implements a mathematical model of the dynamics of a robot, in such a way it must provide the possibility of symbolic computations with the condition of structural nonlinearity. The main aim of this work is to develop a method that ensures the inclusion of the structural nonlinearity of the cable system in the mathematical model. It is supposed to consider the possibility of implementation of the computer model with symbolic computations. The problem of including a mathematical model of cables as unilateral constraints in the model of highly loaded cable robots is considered. The justification for including the activation functions in a system of differential equations of dynamics of cable-driven robot is formulated. A model of wire ropes as unilateral constraints is represented via including the activation functions in a system of differential equations. With using of the proposed method, numerical solution of a problem of forward dynamics has been obtained for high-loaded parallel cable-driven robot.

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Analyzing the State Estimation Software Package Reliability Using the Fault Tree Technology

Elektrichestvo ◽

10.24160/0013-5380-2018-6-24-34 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 (6) ◽

pp. 24-34

Author(s):

Irina N. KOLOSOK ◽

◽

Elena S. KORKINA ◽

Alexandr V. TIKHONOV ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

State Estimation ◽

Software Package ◽

Fault Tree ◽

The State ◽

Package Reliability

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Towards Providing Effective Data-Driven Responses to Predict the Covid-19 in São Paulo and Brazil

Sensors ◽

10.3390/s21020540 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

pp. 540

Author(s):

Fabio Amaral ◽

Wallace Casaca ◽

Cassio M. Oishi ◽

José A. Cuminato

Keyword(s):

Learning Strategies ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

Data Driven ◽

Series Data ◽

São Paulo ◽

Time Data ◽

Unified Framework ◽

Infected People

São Paulo is the most populous state in Brazil, home to around 22% of the country’s population. The total number of Covid-19-infected people in São Paulo has reached more than 1 million, while its total death toll stands at 25% of all the country’s fatalities. Joining the Brazilian academia efforts in the fight against Covid-19, in this paper we describe a unified framework for monitoring and forecasting the Covid-19 progress in the state of São Paulo. More specifically, a freely available, online platform to collect and exploit Covid-19 time-series data is presented, supporting decision-makers while still allowing the general public to interact with data from different regions of the state. Moreover, a novel forecasting data-driven method has also been proposed, by combining the so-called Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with machine learning strategies to better fit the mathematical model’s coefficients for predicting Infections, Recoveries, Deaths, and Viral Reproduction Numbers. We show that the obtained predictor is capable of dealing with badly conditioned data samples while still delivering accurate 10-day predictions. Our integrated computational system can be used for guiding government actions mainly in two basic aspects: real-time data assessment and dynamic predictions of Covid-19 curves for different regions of the state. We extend our analysis and investigation to inspect the virus spreading in Brazil in its regions. Finally, experiments involving the Covid-19 advance in other countries are also given.

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Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply

Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling ◽

10.1186/s12976-021-00143-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Marcos Amaku ◽

Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽

Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽

Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽

Eduardo Massad

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Vaccination Campaign ◽

Vaccination Rate ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

The State ◽

São Paulo ◽

Health Authorities ◽

The World ◽

The Moment ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. Methods We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. Results The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. Conclusions Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

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On the optimal control of coronavirus (2019-nCov) mathematical model; a numerical approach

Advances in Difference Equations ◽

10.1186/s13662-020-02982-6 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 (1) ◽

Author(s):

N. H. Sweilam ◽

S. M. Al-Mekhlafi ◽

A. O. Albalawi ◽

D. Baleanu

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Optimal Control ◽

Weighted Average ◽

Necessary Optimality Conditions ◽

Numerical Approach ◽

Population Number ◽

Infected People ◽

The Stability ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Theoretical Results

Abstract In this paper, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) mathematical model with modified parameters is presented. This model consists of six nonlinear fractional order differential equations. Optimal control of the suggested model is the main objective of this work. Two control variables are presented in this model to minimize the population number of infected and asymptotically infected people. Necessary optimality conditions are derived. The Grünwald–Letnikov nonstandard weighted average finite difference method is constructed for simulating the proposed optimal control system. The stability of the proposed method is proved. In order to validate the theoretical results, numerical simulations and comparative studies are given.

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EPIDEMIC ENCEPHALITIS AND SIMPLE HERPES

The Journal of General Physiology ◽

10.1085/jgp.8.6.713 ◽

1927 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 713-726 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Simon Flexner

Keyword(s):

Guinea Pig ◽

Past Experience ◽

The State ◽

Encephalitis Virus ◽

Point Of View ◽

Epidemic Encephalitis ◽

Direct Corollary ◽

The Subject ◽

Positive Results ◽

Epidemic Diseases

The purpose of this paper is to explain the state of our knowledge of the etiology of epidemic encephalitis, and especially to draw a line of demarcation between the established virus of simple herpes and the hypothetical virus of epidemic encephalitis. It had already been shown that the experimental observations on rabbits do no suffice to prove the identity of the herpes with the encephalitis virus. The discussion of the subject in this paper shows that identity cannot be postulated on the basis of the performed guinea pig experiments. Attention has been drawn to the significant fact that there is lack of harmony in the positive results of those investigators who believe that the incitants of epidemic encephalitis have been discovered. An attempt has been made to attribute some of the discrepancies reported by these investigators either to accidental and contaminating microbic agents, or to the uncovering of virulent agents preexisting in a latent state in the animals employed for inoculation, the existence of which was not previously known or suspected. Since past experience leads us to believe in a single incitant for widespread epidemic diseases, it is probable that, when certainly discovered, the microbe of epidemic encephalitis will prove to be simple and not multiple. The direct corollary to this point of view is that up to the present, the etiology of epidemic encephalitis has not been determined.

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Mathematical model implementation in conditions of uncertainty and possible risks

Energy and automation ◽

10.31548/energiya2021.04.137 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 137-145

Author(s):

A. Kravtsov ◽

◽

D. Levkin ◽

O. Makarov ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Thermal Conductivity ◽

Mathematical Model ◽

Differential Equations ◽

Boundary Value Problem ◽

Boundary Value Problems ◽

Layer Structure ◽

Boundary Value ◽

Goal Function ◽

Cauchy Problems ◽

System Of Differential Equations

The article presents the theoretical and methodological principles for forecasting and mathematical modeling of possible risks in technological and biotechnological systems. The authors investigated in details the possible approach to the calculation of the goal function and its parameters. Considerable attention is paid to substantiating the correctness of boundary value problems and Cauchy problems. In mechanics, engineering, and biology, Cauchy problems and boundary value problems of differential equations are used to model physical processes. It is important that differential equations have a single physically sound solution. The authors of this article investigate the specific features of boundary value problems and Cauchy problems with boundary conditions in a two-point medium, and determine the conditions for the correctness of such problems in the spaces of power growth functions. The theory of pseudo-differential operators in the space of generalized functions was used to prove the correctness of boundary value problems. The application of the obtained results will make it possible to guarantee the correctness of mathematical models built in conditions of uncertainty and possible risks. As an example of a computational mathematical model that describes the state of the studied object of non-standard shape, the authors considered the boundary value problem of the system of differential equations of thermal conductivity for the embryo under the action of a laser beam. For such a boundary value problem, it is impossible to guarantee the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the system of differential equations. To be sure of the existence of a single solution, it is necessary either not to take into account the three-layer structure of the microbiological object, or to determine the conditions for the correctness of the boundary value problem. Applying the results obtained by the authors, the correctness of the boundary value problem of systems of differential equations of thermal conductivity for the embryo is proved taking into account the three-layer structure of the microbiological object. This makes it possible to increase the accuracy and speed of its implementation on the computer. Key words: forecasting, risk, correctness, boundary value problems, conditions of uncertainty

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ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURE FOR THE PROVISION OF ELECTRONIC SERVICES IN THE FORM OF A DECLARATION (NOTIFICATION) BY PHYSICAL PERSONS TO THE STATE ARCHITECTURAL AND CONSTRUCTION INSPECTION

Actual problems of native jurisprudence ◽

10.15421/391961 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 74-77

Author(s):

A. R. Ishkhanian

Keyword(s):

Digital Signature ◽

Software Package ◽

The State ◽

Scientific Article ◽

Administrative Procedure ◽

Electronic Service ◽

Service Consumer ◽

Construction Inspection ◽

The Moment

The scientific article is devoted to the coverage of the administrative procedure for providing electronic services by the State Architectural and Construction Inspectorate of Ukraine. Different approaches to the concept of administrative procedure in terms of e-services provision are discussed. The stages of the procedure of providing electronic service in the form of submission of a declaration (notification) by individuals are characterized. It is established that before commencing the process of submission of the declaration (message), the service consumer must have a personal key and a valid enhanced certificate, which will be used during the submission process to affix an electronic digital signature to the form with the declaration (message). You can obtain enhanced key certificates at an accredited key certification center. Thus, at the moment the service supports certificates issued by the certification center of the information and reference department of the Ministry of Revenue and Collections of Ukraine. Install a Java computing software package on your computer and enable JavaScript scripts to run in your browser. Please note that detailed Java installation instructions are available at http://java.com/download/installed.jsp. You can download Java directly for Windows from http://www.java.com/download/windows_xpi.jsp. How to enable JavaScript scripts in your browser (http://www.enable-javascript.com/en/). It is concluded that the procedure of providing the service in electronic form, for example, the submission of a declaration (notification) by the state architectural and construction inspection of Ukraine is regulated in detail on the official website and still needs to improve the quality of the provision of these services in the form of simplification and accessibility for all consumers services.

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