scholarly journals PERENCANAAN DAN PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI AGREGAT PADA USAHA TEDUNG UD DWI PUTRI DI KLUNGKUNG

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 99
Author(s):  
I Komang Juliantara ◽  
Kastawan Mandala
Keyword(s):  
Production Planning ◽  
Production Cost ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Total Production ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
One Year ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

Production planning and control is very important to minimize the occurrence of excess product inventory so that the demand season is low and vice versa there is a shortage of products during the high demand season. The purpose of this study is to determine and determine the amount of production with minimal costs at UD Dwi Putri Klungkung. This research was conducted on building products using an aggregate production planning system while the data used in this study were sales data for one year, production capacity, overtime costs, storage costs and labor costs. Based on the results of the study indicate that the estimated number of products produced during the next year is as many as 31,531 units, which are based on the exponential smoothing method. This method is used, because the exponential smoothing method gives results that have the smallest standard error with MAD value of 208.812, MSE value of 61843.5 and MAPE value of 7.97%. Aggregate planning strategy with chase strategy produces a total production cost of Rp. 242,995,500.00, where the total cost lower, compared to the total production cost with a strategy level of Rp. 254,337,081.00. Keywords: Forecasting, Aggregate Planning, Chase Strategy, Strategy Level

ANALISIS HOME INDUSTRI PEMBUATAN KERUPUK OPAK DI DESA JAYA BAKTI KECAMATAN MADANG SUKU I KABUPATEN OKU TIMUR

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (01) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Agoes Thony
Keyword(s):  
Production Cost ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Variable Cost ◽  
Fixed Cost ◽  
Total Production ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Family Labor ◽  
One Year ◽  
Break Even Point

The objectives of this study were to: 1) determine the technique of making opak crackers in Jaya Bakti Village, Madang Suku I District, East OKU Regency, 2) determine the income and break-even point of the home industry for making opak crackers in Jaya Bakti Village, Madang Suku I District, East OKU Regency , 3) knowing the added value of the home industry for making opak crackers in Jaya Bakti Village, Madang Suku I District, East OKU Regency, 4) knowing whether the home industry for making opak crackers in Jaya Bakti Village, Madang Suku I District, East OKU Regency is profitable and feasible to develop. The results showed that: 1) the technique of making opaque crackers is quite easy, namely by grated cassava, seasoned (garlic, coriander and salt), then molded and steamed for ± 2 minutes for one steaming opaque cracker, then dried in the sun for ± 2 days, after the raw dry opaque crackers are packaged and then marketed. So, the process of making opak crackers takes ± 5 days, 2) the revenue obtained from the home industry for making opak crackers is IDR 735,000 / PP, with a production cost of IDR 501,362 / PP, with a fixed cost of IDR. 69,444, - / PP and a variable cost of 428,000, - / PP, then the income is Rp. 233,638 .- / PP or Rp. 1,401,828 .- / month, 3) the added value in making opak crackers is Rp. 333,638, - / PP obtained from revenue less intermediate costs. The intermediate cost is obtained from the total production cost, namely Rp. 501,362, - / PP minus family labor costs of Rp. 100,000, - / PP so that the total intermediate cost is Rp. 401,362, - / PP, 4) the level of profit based on the acceptance of the value is more than 1, namely the R / C Ratio of 1.47 which means that the opaque cracker home industry is profitable. Meanwhile, based on the level of profit from income the value is more than the prevailing bank interest rate, namely B / C Ratio of 0.47, which means that the home industry for making opaque crackers is non feasible. The production BEP value is Rp. 53.27, - / kg / PP, the BEP value of Rp. 559,361, - / PP, and the BEP value is Rp. Rp. 4.386, - / kg / PP, so this business can be said to be functionally feasible. In addition, the total assets invested in the home industry during the year or the ROI value resulted in a profit of 0.38%, meaning that for the home industry, opaque cracker making for one year generated a profit of 0.38%.

scholarly journals Peramalan Penjualan Rebung Bambu Betung (Dendrocalamus asper) dengan Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Ni Putu Murtini ◽  
I Gusti Ngurah Apriadi Aviantara ◽  
Ida Bagus Putu Gunadnya
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bamboo Shoots ◽  
Dendrocalamus Asper ◽  
Fresh Products ◽  
One Year ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

ABSTRAK Rebung bambu betung (Dendrocalamus asper) merupakan salah satu olahan produk segar yang dijual di Tiara Dewata Supermarket, dimana olahan tersebut terbagi menjadi tiga yaitu rebung mentah, rebung rajang, dan rebung biasa. Masa simpan rebung tergolong sangat singkat, hanya 1 – 3 hari. Lebih lanjut, penjualan yang terjadi setiap bulan untuk ketiga produk segar ini berfluktuasi dan sulit diduga kecenderungannya. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan metode peramalan agar dapat memperkecil kerugian yang akan terjadi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menemukan nilai alfa terbaik yang dapat digunakan untuk memperoleh data runtun waktu peramalan yang terbaik untuk periode satu tahun mendatang terhadap ketiga jenis olahan rebung bambu betung dengan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini yaitu data aktual penjualan ketiga olahan rebung bambu betung dari bulan Maret 2019 – Mei 2020. Nilai alfa terbaik yang dapat digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan yaitu perhitungan data runtun waktu dengan nilai alfa 0,1 – 0,9 yang memiliki nilai kesalahan (error) terkecil, dimana alfa 0,3 pada rebung mentah dengan nilai kesalahan MSE 20,146, RSME 4,488, MAPE 19%, alfa 0,4 pada rebung rajang dengan nilai kesalahan MSE 120,281, RMSE 10,967, MAPE 5%, dan alfa 0,4 pada rebung biasa dengan nilai kesalahan MSE 1306,619, RMSE 36,147, MAPE 5%. Dari perhitungan menggunakan nilai alfa tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa metode triple exponential smoothing valid digunakan untuk meramalkan data runtun waktu penjualan ketiga olahan rebung bambu betung dari periode Juni 2020 – Mei 2021.  ABSTRACT Betung bamboo shoots (Dendrocalamus asper) is one of the processed fresh products sold at Tiara Dewata Supermarket, where the processing is divided into three, namely raw bamboo shoots, chopped bamboo shoots, and ordinary bamboo shoots. The shelf life of bamboo shoots is very short, only 1 - 3 days. Furthermore, the monthly sales for these three fresh products fluctuate and it is difficult to predict the trend. Therefore, a forecasting method is needed in order to minimize the losses that will occur. The purpose of this study was to find the best alpha value that can be used to obtain the best time series forecasting data for the next one year for the three types of Betung bamboo shoots using the Triple Exponential Smoothing method. The data used in this study is the actual sales data of the three processed bamboo bamboo shoots from March 2019 - May 2020. The best alpha value that can be used for forecasting is the calculation of time series data with an alpha value of 0.1 - 0.9 which has a value the smallest error, where alpha 0.3 in raw shoots with an error value of MSE 20.146, RSME 4.488, MAPE 19%, alpha 0.4 in chopped bamboo shoots with an error value of MSE 120.281, RMSE 10.967, MAPE 5%, and alpha 0,4 on ordinary shoots with an error value of MSE 1306,619, RMSE 36,147, MAPE 5%. From the calculation using the alpha value, it can be concluded that the triple exponential smoothing method is valid to predict the sales time series data of the three processed Betung bamboo shoots from the period June 2020 - May 2021.

MINIMUM AVERAGE COST PRODUCTION PLANNING IN STOCHASTIC MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS

1998 ◽  
Vol 08 (07) ◽  
pp. 1251-1276 ◽  
Author(s):  
SURESH P. SETHI ◽  
HANQIN ZHANG ◽  
QING ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Control Problem ◽  
Production Planning ◽  
Average Cost ◽  
Production Cost ◽  
Manufacturing Systems ◽  
Production Control ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Production Rates ◽  
Planning Problems

Recently, the production control problem in stochastic manufacturing systems has generated a great deal of interest. The goal is to obtain production rates to minimize total expected surplus and production cost. This paper reviews the research devoted to minimum average cost production planning problems in stochastic manufacturing systems. Manufacturing systems involve a single or parallel failure-prone machines producing a number of different products, random production capacity, and constant demands.

scholarly journals TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: FORECASTING PERBANDINGAN PENUMPANG KERETA API DAN PESAWAT TERBANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 277
Author(s):  
Khoirin Azaro ◽  
Nur Indah Riwajanti ◽  
Anik Kusmintarti
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Efficient Planning ◽  
Exponential Method ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Airline Company

This research aims to predict the number of train and airplane passengers in 2020. Forecasting of train and airplane passengers is interest to analyze and estimate consumer demand to help the train or airline company prepare effective and efficient planning. This type of research is descriptive quantitative and uses data taken from the Indonesian Statistic Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using Exponential smoothing Method. Train and airplane passenger data shows trend and seasonal patterns so that the exponential method used is Triple Exponential smoothing. The results of the study show that train passengers in 2020 are increase. While forecast results related to aircraft passengers in 2020 also tend to increase.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Groundwater Tax Revenue Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23006
Author(s):  
Dyna Marisa Khairina ◽  
Aqib Muaddam ◽  
Septya Maharani ◽  
Heliza Rahmania
Keyword(s):  
Reference Value ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
The Government ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Setting the target of groundwater tax revenues for the next year is an important thing for Kutai Kartanegara Regional Office of Revenue to maximize the regional income and accelerate regional development. Process of setting the target of groundwater tax revenue for the next year still using estimation only and not using a mathematical calculation method that can generate target reference value. If the realization of groundwater tax revenue is not approaching the target, the implementation of development in the Government of Kutai Kartanegara can be disrupted. The mathematical method commonly used to predict revenue value is the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method, which uses alpha constant value which is randomly selected for the calculation process. Forecasting of groundwater tax revenue for 2018 using groundwater tax revenue data from 2013 to 2017. Single Exponential Smoothing method using alpha constant value consists of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The forecasting error value of each alpha value is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The best result is forecasting using alpha value 0.1 with MAPE error value was 45.868 and the best forecasting value of groundwater tax for 2018 is Rp 443.904.600,7192.

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