A Control Approach to Guide Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in the Treatment of COVID-19 Disease Using a SEIHRD Dynamical Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-346
Author(s):  
Fernando Pazos ◽  
◽  
Flavia E. Felicioni ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Control Law ◽  
Parametric Uncertainties ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Optimal Intensity ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

The recent worldwide epidemic of COVID-19 disease, for which there are no medications to cure it and the vaccination is still at an early stage, led to the adoption of public health measures by governments and populations in most of the affected countries to avoid the contagion and its spread. These measures are known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and their implementation clearly produces social unrest as well as greatly affects the economy. Frequently, NPIs are implemented with an intensity quantified in an ad hoc manner. Control theory offers a worthwhile tool for determining the optimal intensity of the NPIs in order to avoid the collapse of the healthcare system while keeping them as low as possible, yielding concrete guidance to policymakers. A simple controller, which generates a control law that is easy to calculate and to implement is proposed. This controller is robust to large parametric uncertainties in the model used and to some level of noncompliance with the NPIs.

scholarly journals A control approach to the Covid-19 disease using a SEIHRD dynamical model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Pazos ◽  
Flavia E. Felicioni
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Theory ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Parametric Uncertainties ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Optimal Intensity ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Proportional Controller

AbstractThe recent worldwide epidemic of Covid-19 disease, for which there is no vaccine or medications to prevent or cure it, led to the adoption of public health measures by governments and populations in most of the affected countries to avoid the contagion and its spread. These measures are known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and their implementation clearly produces social unrest as well as greatly affects the economy. Frequently, NPIs are implemented with an intensity quantified in an ad hoc manner. Control theory offers a worth-while tool for determining the optimal intensity of the NPIs in order to avoid the collapse of the healthcare system while keeping them as low as possible, yielding in a policymakers concrete guidance. We propose here the use of a simple proportional controller that is robust to large parametric uncertainties in the model used.

scholarly journals A Control Approach to the Covid-19 Disease Using a SEIHRD Dynamical Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Pazos ◽  
Flavia E. Felicioni
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Theory ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Parametric Uncertainties ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Optimal Intensity ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Proportional Controller

The recent worldwide epidemic of Covid-19 disease, for which there is no vaccine or medications to prevent or cure it, led to the adoption of public health measures by governments and populations in most of the aected countries to avoid the contagion and its spread. These measures are known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and their implementation clearly produces social unrest as well as aects the economy. Frequently, NPIs are implemented with an intensity quantied in an ad hoc manner. Control theory oers a worthwhile tool for determining the optimal intensity of the NPIs in order to avoid the collapse of the healthcare system while keeping them as low as possible, yielding in a policymakers concrete guidance. We propose here the use of a simple proportional controller that is robust to large parametric uncertainties in the model used.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Framework Analysis ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Elderly Cohort ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Summary This paper estimates the effect of nonpharmaceutical intervention policies on public health during the COVID-19 outbreak by considering a counterfactual case for Sweden. Using a synthetic control approach, I find that strict initial lockdown measures play an important role in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 infection, as the infection cases in Sweden would have been reduced by almost 75 percent had its policymakers followed stricter containment policies. As people dynamically adjust their behaviour in response to information and policies, the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions becomes visible, with a time lag of around 5 weeks. Supplementary robustness checks and an alternative difference-in-differences framework analysis do not fundamentally alter the main conclusions. Finally, extending the analysis to excess mortality, I find that the lockdown measures would have been associated with a lower excess mortality rate in Sweden by 25 percentage points, with a steep age gradient of 29 percentage points for the most vulnerable elderly cohort. The outcome of this study can assist policymakers in laying out future guidelines to further protect public health, as well as facilitate plans for economic recovery.

scholarly journals The Outcome and Implications of Public Precautionary Measures in Taiwan–Declining Respiratory Disease Cases in the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
pp. 4877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Chia Hsieh ◽  
Chih-Hao Lin ◽  
William Yu Chung Wang ◽  
David J. Pauleen ◽  
Jengchung Victor Chen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Major Purpose ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government

With the rapid development of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries are trying to cope with increasing medical demands, and, at the same time, to reduce the increase of infected numbers by implementing a number of public health measures, namely non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). These public health measures can include social distancing, frequent handwashing, and personal protective equipment (PPE) at the personal level; at the community and the government level, these measures can range from canceling activities, avoiding mass gatherings, closing facilities, and, at the extreme, enacting national or provincial lockdowns. Rather than completely stopping the infectious disease, the major purpose of these NPIs in facing an emerging infectious disease is to reduce the contact rate within the population, and reduce the spread of the virus until the time a vaccine or reliable medications become available. The idea is to avoid a surge of patients with severe symptoms beyond the capacity of the hospitals’ medical resources, which would lead to more mortality and morbidity. While many countries have experienced steep curves in new cases, some, including Hong Kong, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand, and Taiwan, seem to have controlled or even eliminated the infection locally. From its first case of COVID-19 on the 21 January until the 12 May, Taiwan had 440 cases, including just 55 local infections, and seven deaths in total, representing 1.85 cases per 100,000 population and a 1.5% death rate (based on the Worldometer 2020 statistics of Taiwan’s population of 23.8 million). This paper presents evidence that spread prevention involving mass masking and universal hygiene at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 50% decline of infectious respiratory diseases, based on historical data during the influenza season in Taiwan. These outcomes provide potential support for the effectiveness of widely implementing public health precaution measures in controlling COVID-19 without a lockdown policy.

Silver Diamine Fluoride – A “Silver-fluoride Bullet” for Dental Caries

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 279-282
Author(s):  
Pallavi Goel ◽  
Vikram R ◽  
Adarsha M S ◽  
Sudhanva M E
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Dental Caries ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Permanent Teeth ◽  
Silver Diamine Fluoride ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Carious Lesions ◽  
Silver Fluoride

Dental caries is one of the most prevalent diseases across the globe, affecting all age groups. Various public health measures like water fluoridation have been started to control the spread of caries, especially among children. But these intervention methods are inaccessible to people in some parts of the world. Thus, a product called Silver Diamine Fluoride was introduced, which can help arrest carious lesions at an early stage. It is a beneficial aid for caries arrest in both primary and permanent teeth. Also, can be used for arresting root caries. Thus, the objective of this review article is to discuss about silver diamine fluoride and its diverse uses from both clinician and public health point of view.

scholarly journals Effective mitigation strategy in early stage of COVID-19 pandemic in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yue Yu ◽  
Chen Xu ◽  
Hu-Wen Wang ◽  
Rui-Jie Chang ◽  
Yin-Qiao Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Epidemic Control ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Global Pandemic

Abstract In the past five months, success in control the national epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been witnessed in China. The implementation of public health measures accounts for the success which include different interventions in the early or later stages of the outbreak. It is clear that although not all measures were universally effective worldwide, their achievements have been significant. More solidarity is needed to deal with this global pandemic with more learning and understanding. Understanding which of the public health interventions implemented in China were effective may provide ideas for international epidemic control.

scholarly journals Controlling the COVID-19 Pandemic in Vietnam: Lessons From a Limited Resource Country

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 161-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duc Minh Duong ◽  
Vui Thi Le ◽  
Bui Thi Thu Ha
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Limited Resource ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Operation Case

The lessons learned from Vietnam, a country that the world acclaimed for its management of the fight against COVID-19, could stand out as an example of how to do more with less. The Vietnamese government has acted swiftly at the very early stage of the pandemic with a focus on containment efforts and extensive public health measures, particularly (1) the commitment from the government with a multisectoral approach; (2) a timely, accurate, and transparent risk communication; (3) active surveillance and intensive isolation/quarantine operation, case management with tracing all new arrivals and close contact up to three clusters; and (4) suspension of flights, shutting schools, and all nonessential services.

scholarly journals The effect of early-stage public health policies on the transmission of COVID-19 in South American countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan Valcarcel ◽  
Jose L Avilez ◽  
J. Smith Torres-Roman ◽  
Julio A Poterico ◽  
Janina Bazalar-Palacios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
South American ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Country Specific

Objectives: The analysis of transmission dynamics is crucial to determine whether mitigation or suppression measures reduce the spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study sought to estimate the basic (R0) and time-varying (Rt) reproduction number of COVID-19 and contrast the public health measures for ten South American countries. Methods: Data was obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Country-specific R0 estimates during the first two weeks of the outbreak and Rt estimates after 90 days were estimated. Results: Countries used a combination of isolation, physical distancing, quarantine, and community-wide containment measures to staunch the spread of COVID-19 at different points in time. R0 ranged from 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 1.13-1.99) in Venezuela to 3.83 (3.04-4.75) in Chile, whereas Rt after 90 days ranged from 0.71 (95% credible interval: 0.39-1.05) in Uruguay to 1.20 (1.19-1.20) in Brazil. Different R0 and Rt values may be related to the testing capacity of each country. Conclusion: R0 in the early phase of the outbreak varied across the South American countries. The public health measures adopted in the initial period of the pandemic appear to have reduced Rt over time in each country, albeit to different levels.

scholarly journals Early-Stage Modelling and Forecast of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burkina Faso using a Bayesian SIR Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 145-156
Author(s):  
Somda S.M.A. ◽  
Dabone E.B.A. ◽  
Doulougou M. ◽  
Bationo C.S. ◽  
Galboni K.T.M.
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Government

In this article, we propose a Bayesian approach for estimating and predicting the magnitude of the coronavirus epidemic in Burkina Faso in its early stage. Our approach is inspired by the work of Wang et al. but adapted to the Burkinabe context. Two models are presented: a simple Bayesian SIR approach and another Bayesian SIR which takes into account the public health measures undertaken by the government of Burkina Faso. The approach was implemented at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Burkina Faso, covering the period from March 9 to April 30, 2020. The results of the analyses will allow a good prediction of COVID-19 infections and deaths in the early days of the epidemic, considering government policies.

scholarly journals Quantitative Analysis of the Effectiveness of Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thiago Christiano Silva ◽  
Leandro Anghinoni ◽  
Liang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Early Time ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Federal Policies ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Almost All

Although COVID-19 has spread almost all over the world, social isolation is still a controversial public health policy and governments of many countries still doubt its level of effectiveness. This situation can create deadlocks in places where there is a discrepancy among municipal, state and federal policies. The exponential increase of the number of infectious people and deaths in the last days shows that the COVID-19 epidemics is still at its early stage in Brazil and such political disarray can lead to very serious results. In this work, we study the COVID-19 epidemics in Brazilian cities using early-time approximations of the SIR model in networks. Different from other works, the underlying network is constructed by feeding real-world data on local COVID-19 cases reported by Brazilian cities to a regularized vector autoregressive model, which estimates directional COVID-19 transmission channels (links) of every pair of cities (vertices) using spectral network analysis. Our results reveal that social isolation and, especially, the use of masks can effectively reduce the transmission rate of COVID-19 in Brazil. We also build counterfactual scenarios to measure the human impact of these public health measures in terms of reducing the number of COVID-19 cases at the epidemics peak. We find that the efficiency of social isolation and of using of masks differs significantly across cities. For instance, we find that they would potentially decrease the COVID-19 epidemics peak in Sao Paulo (SP) and Brasilia (DF) by 15% and 25%, respectively. We hope our study can support the design of further public health measures.

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