scholarly journals Gaps versus Growth Rates in the Taylor Rule

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles T. Carlstrom ◽  
Timothy S. Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Rule Of Thumb ◽  
Fed Funds Rate

There are many possible formulations of the Taylor rule. We consider two that use different measures of economic activity to which the Fed could react, the output gap and the growth rate of GDP, and investigate which captures past movements of the fed funds rate more closely. Looking at these rules through the lens of a partial-adjustment Taylor rule, we conclude that the gap rule does a better job of explaining the actual funds rate data, and provides a better rule-of-thumb for understanding historical monetary policy.

Can a Taylor rule better explain the Fed’s monetary policy through the 1920s and 1930s? A nonlinear cliometric analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Damette ◽  
Fredj Jawadi ◽  
Antoine Parent
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interwar Period ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Working Paper ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Monetary Regimes

Abstract This paper investigates whether a variant of a Taylor rule applied to historical monetary data of the interwar period is useful to gain a better understanding of the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy over the period 1920–1940. To this end, we considered a standard Taylor rule (using two drivers: output gap and inflation gap) and proxied them differently for robustness. Further, we extended this Taylor rule to a nonlinear framework while enabling its coefficient to be time-varying and to change with regard to the phases in business cycle, in order to better capture any further asymmetry in the data and the structural break induced by the Great Depression. Accordingly, we showed two important findings. First, the linearity hypothesis was rejected, and we found that an On/Off Taylor Rule is appropriate to reproduce the conduct of monetary policy during the interwar period more effectively (the activation of drivers only occurs per regime). Second, unlike Field [Field, A. 2015. “The Taylor Rule in the 1920s.” Working Paper], we validated the use of a Taylor rule to explain the conduct of monetary policy in history more effectively. Consequently, this nonlinear Taylor rule specification provides interesting results for a better understanding of monetary regimes during the interwar period, and offers useful complements to narrative monetary history.

scholarly journals The Monetary Policy of the National Bank of Romania in The Inflation Targeting Era. A Taylor Rule Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-102
Author(s):  
Bogdan Căpraru ◽  
Norel Ionuţ Moise ◽  
Andrei Rădulescu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Inflation Differential ◽  
Rule Approach ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Potential Gdp ◽  
The One

AbstractIn this paper we analyse the monetary policy of the National Bank of Romania during 2005-2015 by estimating the Taylor rule, on a quarterly basis. We determined the potential GDP by employing the Hodrick-Prescott filter, in order to distinguish between the cyclical and the structural components of the output. Then, we estimated the traditional Taylor rule function (with a classic OLS regression), but slightly modified, as to take into account the forward-looking attitude of the NBR. The results confirm the direct correlation between the monetary policy rate and the output gap on the one hand, and the inflation differential (inflation - inflationtarget) on the other hand. Also, the results show us that NBR paid a higher attention to the dynamics of the inflation versus its target than to the output gap. Last, but not least, the central bank has been also sensitive to the financial stability, as reflected by the results of the incorporation of the ROBOR-EURIBOR spread in the classical Taylor rule.

scholarly journals Effect of frequency of pasture measurement on estimation of pasture growth rates: field observations and predictions of a whole farm model

2002 ◽  
pp. 91-95
Author(s):  
W.E. Prewer ◽  
J.A. Lile ◽  
K.A. Macdonald ◽  
K.P. Bright ◽  
C.C. Palliser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Dairy Farm ◽  
Visual Assessment ◽  
Accurate Estimate ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Mass Model ◽  
Farm Model

The frequency of measurements to generate pasture growth rate data varies. Commonly measurements are made once weekly or fortnightly and averaged monthly, using a variety of methods. To assess the effect of frequency of measurement on estimates of pasture growth rate, weekly visual assessment of farm pasture cover was compared with the fortnightly and monthly average and also with predictions by a Whole Farm Model. Weekly observed pasture growth rates had large fluctuations but these were removed when the weekly values were averaged monthly. The fluctuations are due to the variety of paddocks assessed, climatic factors, inconsistencies of operators and inherent errors in the technique used. Values calculated by a Whole Farm Model also showed daily variation in pasture growth rate but the fluctuations were not as severe as those in the observed pasture growth rate data because human error of assessment and error in the technique were removed. Observed monthly pasture growth rates were also compared with values calculated by the model. The model closely predicted observed pasture growth rates for most months. To obtain an accurate estimate for monthly growth rates it is better to average a number of assessments. In the field, this could be an average of weekly observations. Because the model calculates rates daily, it can be used to predict pasture growth rates on a more frequent basis (e.g. weekly) to aid feed budgeting. Keywords: dairy farm, herbage mass, model, pasture growth, simulation

scholarly journals Modeling changes in US monetary policy with a time-varying nonlinear Taylor rule

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anh D. M. Nguyen ◽  
Efthymios G. Pavlidis ◽  
David A. Peel
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Monetary Economics ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo Methods ◽  
Asymmetric Preferences ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

Abstract The monetary economics literature has highlighted four issues that are important in evaluating US monetary policy since the late 1960s: (i) time variation in policy parameters, (ii) asymmetric preferences, (iii) real-time nature of data, and (iv) heteroskedasticity. In this paper, we exploit advances in sequential monte carlo methods to estimate a time-varying nonlinear Taylor rule that addresses these four issues simultaneously. Our findings suggest that US monetary policy has experienced substantial changes in terms of both the response to inflation and to real economic activity, as well as changes in preferences. These changes cannot be captured adequately by a single structural break at the late 1970s, as has been commonly assumed in the literature, and play a non-trivial role in economic performance.

An Investigation of the Effects of Microstructure on Fatigue Crack Growth in Ti-6242

2005 ◽  
Vol 127 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. McBagonluri ◽  
E. Akpan ◽  
C. Mercer ◽  
W. Shen ◽  
W. O. Soboyejo
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Fatigue Crack ◽  
Crack Growth Rate ◽  
Fatigue Crack Growth ◽  
Crack Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Surface Crack ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Aspect Ratios ◽  
Crack Growth Rates

Surface and subsurface crack nucleation and growth mechanisms are elucidated for equiaxed (microstructure 1), elongated (microstructure 2), and colony (microstructure 3) microstructures of Ti6242. Prominent cleavage facets, indicative of a Stroh-type dislocation-pile phenomenon characterize the nucleation sites. Beachmarking and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) techniques are used to study fatigue crack growth rates and crack shape evolution in the short and long crack regimes. The studies reveal that surface crack growth rate data are generally comparable to the through-crack growth rate data in the long crack growth regime. However, the depth crack growth rates are somewhat slower than the through-crack growth rates. Surface crack evolution profiles are shown to exhibit a tendency towards “Preferred Propagation Paths” (PPPs). However, the magnitudes of the aspect ratios along the PPPs are different from those reported for square or rectangular cross sections subjected to cyclic tension or bending loads. Finally, the measured crack lengths and aspect ratios are compared with predictions obtained from a fracture mechanics model.

An Investigation of The Effects of Temperature on Fatigue Crack Growth Behavior of a Cast Nearly Lamellar Ti-47A1–2Cr-2Mn + 0.8 Vol. %TiB2 Gamma Titanium Alloy

2000 ◽  
Vol 646 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Lou ◽  
C. Mercer ◽  
W.O. Soboyejo
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Fatigue Crack ◽  
Crack Growth Rate ◽  
Fatigue Crack Growth ◽  
Crack Growth ◽  
Fatigue Crack Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Effects Of Temperature ◽  
Crack Growth Rates

ABSTRACTThis paper presents the results of a study of the effects of temperature on fatigue crack growth in Ti-47A1–2Cr-2Mn + 0.8 Vol. %TiB2 gamma titanium aluminide intermetallics. Fatigue crack growth rate data are presented for the cast lamellar microstructure at 25,450 and 750°C. The trends in the fatigue crack growth rate data are explained by considering the combined effects of crack-tip deformation mechanisms and oxide-induced crack closure. Faster fatigue crack growth rates at 450°C are attributed to the high incidence of irreversible deformation-induced twinning, while slower crack growth rates at 700°C are due to increased deformation by slip and the effects of crack-tip shielding provided by oxide-induced wedging, which is analyzed using a modified Dugdale-Barenblatt model.

scholarly journals Optimal policy and Taylor rule cross-checking under parameter uncertainty

2014 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Bursian ◽  
Markus Roth
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Output Stabilization

AbstractWe examine whether the robustifying nature of Taylor rule cross-checking under model uncertainty carries over to the case of parameter uncertainty. Adjusting monetary policy based on this kind of cross-checking can improve the outcome for the monetary authority. This, however, crucially depends on the relative welfare weight that is attached to the output gap and also the degree of monetary policy commitment. We find that Taylor rule cross-checking is on average able to improve losses when the monetary authority only moderately cares about output stabilization and when policy is set in a discretionary way.

scholarly journals The Dependence of China’s Monetary Policy Rules on Interest Rate Regimes: Empirical Analysis Based on a Pseudo Output Gap

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2557
Author(s):  
Xiaoyu Zhang ◽  
Fanghui Pan
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates

Although a large number of scholars have studied the policy preferences and monetary policy rules of China’s central bank, most have found no evidence that China’s central bank has adjusted the nominal interest rates against the output gap. By constructing the pseudo output gap defined by the deviation of the real output growth rate and the target growth rate, this paper finds that China’s central bank prefers to adjust the nominal interest rates against the pseudo output gap. The monetary policy preferences and rules of China’s central bank in different interest rate regimes are investigated based on the threshold Taylor rule model. It is found that, in the high-interest-rate regime, the central bank adjusts the nominal interest against the inflation gap and the pseudo output gap, while in the low-interest-rate regime, there is no evidence that the central bank adjusts the nominal interest rates against the pseudo output gap. The lower bound of interest rate reduction and the weakening of interest rate policy effects caused by the liquidity trap of the interest rate are the possible reasons for China’s central bank not to adjust the nominal interest rates against the pseudo output gap.

LPCVD of Silicon Nitride Films From Hexachlorodisilane and Ammonia

1987 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. C. Taylor ◽  
B. A. Scot
Keyword(s):  
Activation Energy ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Silicon Nitride ◽  
Physical Properties ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Kcal Mole ◽  
Silicon Nitride Films ◽  
Kinetically Controlled ◽  
Controlled Deposition

AbstractHexachlorodisilane (Si2Cl6) has been used as an alternative to dichlorosilane and silane for growth of silicon nitride films. The films were grown at a pressure of 0.7 Torr at temperatures between 450° and 850°C. Growth rate data indicates a kinetically controlled deposition with an activation energy of 29.3 kcal/mole. Growth rates are substantially higher than those obtained from SiH2Cl2 under similar conditions, and the physical properties of the films are essentially the same. At the higher growth temperatures stoichiometric Si3N4 films with no detectable chlorine can be obtained when a NH3/Si2Cl6 ratio of 60 or greater is used.

The influence of the growth rate of intergovernmental transfers on the growth rate of the gross regional product on the example of the Republic of Dagestan

2020 ◽  
pp. 103-110
Author(s):  
Д.Д. Селимова
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Intergovernmental Transfers ◽  
Correlation Dependence ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Regional Product

В статье представлена корреляционная зависимость между результатами экономической деятельности и темпами роста межбюджетных трансфертов в отдельно взятом регионе. Раскрывается динамика роста трансфертов и ее влияние на темпы роста валового регионального продукта. Материалом для анализа послужили показатели Республики Дагестан за период 2009-2019 гг. На основе анализа делается вывод о наличии тесной связи между данными показателями и определяется теснота корреляции. Отмечается позитивное влияние межбюджетных трансфертов на региональное развитие. The article presents the correlation dependence between the results of economic activity and the growth rate of intergovernmental transfers in a particular region. The dynamics of the growth of transfers and its influence on the growth rates of the gross regional product are revealed. The material for the analysis was the indicators of the Republic of Dagestan for the period 2009-2019. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that there is a close relationship between these indicators and the tightness of the correlation is determined. The positive influence of interbudgetary transfers on regional development is noted.

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