scholarly journals Unemployment Duration: Evidence from the Household Labour Force Survey

Author(s):  
David Grimmond

Research on labour market dynamics in New Zealand has been limited mainly due to data limitations. The introduction of the quaterly Houshold Labour Force Survey (HLFS) in December 1985 has greatly increased information on the New Zealand labour market. In this study we propose to test for a relationship between unemployment duration and the ability for individuals to leave unemployment. For example, if the probability of leaving unemployment for a job declines that longer one has already been unemployed, then this could be taken as evidence in support of the Clark and Summers (1979) hypothesis that a concentrated group of persistently unemployed are a large proportion of unemployment. The evidence presented here supports this view, but doubt remains as no allowance is made for other influencing factors.

Author(s):  
Jinyi Shao ◽  
Mallika Kelkar

Self-employment in New Zealand has been trending up in the past two years, following subdued growth between 2000 and 2010. Self-employed people made up 11.3% of total employed in the year to March 2012 (251,800 workers), compared with 10.1% in the year to March 2010. Self-employment is defined in this paper as those people operating their own business without employees. The paper explores time series trends in self-employment, in particular across three post-recession periods. Characteristics of self-employed workers are also identified. This paper also investigates movements in and out of self-employment in order to understand the recent growth in this type of employment. The analysis uses longitudinal Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) data. The HLFS provides official measures of a range of labour market indicators, including the number of people employed, unemployed and not in the labour force.


Author(s):  
Judith Archibald

Many social scientists are familiar with the Household Economic Survey as a source of income data. However it is not the only source. The NZ Income Survey is run annually as a supplement to the June quarter Household Labour Force Survey. It provides a rich set of income data based on a much larger sample size. In this paper I will discuss the NZ Income Survey and compare it to some of the other SNZ sources of income data.


Author(s):  
Philip Spier

This paper describes the results from an exploratory study examining whether Household Labour Force Survey panel data could be used to provide some insights into the level of occupational mobility in New Zealand. Identifying the extent to which people are leaving the occupation for which they have trained can improve our understanding of the contribution of occupational mobility to skill shortages. Overall, it was found that 7% of individuals in the sample appeared to change occupation over the course of a one year period. The groups that were found to be most likely to change occupations were young people and unskilled workers.


Author(s):  
Sophie Flynn ◽  
Andrea Fromm

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a preliminary measure of labour underutilisation in New Zealand using data from the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). Underutilisation measures add value to the suite of labour market indicators already available from the HLFS. In particular, the underutilisation rate complements the unemployment rate by providing a broader picture of unmet demand for paid employment in New Zealand. The concept of underutilisation and the necessity to measure underutilisation is based on recommendations of an International Labour Organization (ILO) Working Group on Underutilisation made in 2008. The Working Group recommended that ‘... the statistical community should devote serious efforts to introduce, at a par with unemployment, a supplementary concept which measures the employment problem as experienced by individual workers.’ The development of underutilisation measures is also important to mirror changes in increasingly transitional labour markets and to enable analysis and evaluation of these changes.


Author(s):  
Allen Bartley ◽  
Ann Dupuis ◽  
Anne De Bruin

Since the late 1970s in New Zealand, education and training have been essential elements as governments have grappled with maintaining and increasing the employability of the labour force. This paper reports on one phase of the Labour Market Dynamics and Economic Participation research programme which addresses the role that education and training institutions play in mediating labour supply and demand and promoting economic participation within various New Zealand regional labour markets. The paper refines and extends some of the key concepts of the Department of Labour's Human Capability Framework to explore the effectiveness of regional education and training institutions, and other intersecting regional and national organisations, in mediating regional labour market supply and demand.


Author(s):  
Brian Silverstone ◽  
Susi Gorbey

The quarterly change in the number of unemployed New Zealanders is usually quite small relative to the total number of people unemployed. For the year ended September 1994, for example, the absolute average quarterly change in Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) unemployment was 10,500 people against a quarterly average unemployment pool of 145,000 people. These relatively small stock changes, however, conceal the much larger flows into and out of unemployment of possibly 70,000 people during each quarter of 1993194. The scale of these flows, and the associated probabilities of entering and leaving unemployment, are not widely known. Using data from the HLFS, this paper updates and extends the relatively small amount of New Zealand research on labour market dynamics. It begins with a definition and data on the unemployment stock-flow relationship in New Zealand. This is followed by a brief analysis of the flows between the major labour market states and the associated flow rates and cycles. The paper will indicate how gross flows data can be used to give insights into gender and age differences in unemployment and 'steady-state' outcomes. The accuracy of gross flows data and the formal modelling of unemployment inflows and outflows are on-going projects.


2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don Webber ◽  
Gail Pacheco

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate area-level labour market dynamics from a spatial perspective. This analysis is aimed at better understanding what socio-economic actors are associated with shifts in unemployment rates across a major metropolitan city. Design/methodology/approach – Based on two waves of New Zealand census data, this paper combines a seemingly unrelated regression approach (allowing for relaxation of the assumption that residuals from models of different employment states are unrelated) with a spatial lag model. Findings – The key socio-economic drivers associated with intra-city employment dynamics were vehicle access, dependency rates and educational attainment. Importantly, the identification of spatial autocorrelation with respect to employment status patterns within this major New Zealand city motivates a case for heterogeneous employment policies across the city. Originality/value – This research improves the understanding of changes in labour market status rates within a city region. This is done by inclusion of two important considerations: a spatial perspective to labour market dynamics at an intra-city level; and formally modelling the interdependence across the four potential labour market outcomes (being full-time, part-time, unemployed or out of the labour force). Overall, there was clear empirical support for the need to include spatial considerations when using targeted policy to help lift areas out of unemployment.


Author(s):  
Simon Chapple ◽  
David Rea

Disparity in labour market outcomes between Maori and non-Maori is examined using Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) data. The paper explores the nature of the ethnicity question and ethnic classification in the HLFS. It shows that there are substantial differences in labour market outcomes between those Maori who report only Maori ethnicity and those who report Maori and another ethnicity ("mixed" Maori). The paper then considers various methods of measuring disparity and uses these to examine the time series behaviour of disparity between 1985 and 1998. It concludes that disparity between Maori and non-Maori is greater today than in 1985. However, all this deterioration occurred between 1985 and 1992. Since 1992 disparity has been in decline. The bulk of time series variation in disparity between Maori and non-Maori has been driven by changes in outcomes for the sole Maori group. Mixed Maori, about a quarter share of the Maori ethnic group, has outcomes which closely track those of the non-Maori population over time.


Author(s):  
Simon Hall

The official unemployment rate in New Zealand has been below 5%for nearly six years and reached a 22-year low of 3.4% in late 2007. However, official unemployment statistics understate the availability of labour given they do not include an important group of people who want to work - the marginally attached. These are people who want to work, but are either not available or not actively seeking work and therefore are not classified as unemployed.   But how different are those people that are marginally attached to the labour force compared to the unemployed? Since 1999, strong employment growth has coincided with a large drop in unemployment but the number of people marginally attached to the labour force has fallen only slightly. Using data from the Household Labour Force Survey, this paper tries to explain the reasons behind this by examining trends in those marginally attached to the labour force and whether this group is significantly different to the officially unemployed. While it is sometimes argued that those marginally attached to the labour force should be combined with the officially unemployed to give a measure of excess supply, this paper investigates whether this is sensible given they appear to be two distinct groups.


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