Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications

10.26686/wgtn.14502894.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

NA Cradock-Henry ◽

J Connolly ◽

P Blackett ◽

Judith Lawrence

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Conceptual Development ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Analytical Framework ◽

Expert Elicitation ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Visual Aids ◽

Systems Methodology ◽

Human Environment ◽

New Research

New research is drawing attention to the potential for climate change to generate cascading impacts and implications across linked human-environment systems, requiring closer accounting of these interactions to anticipate the emergence of surprises and feedbacks. However, there is little practical guidance for those interested in characterising, identifying or assessing cascades, and few empirical examples. In this paper, we elaborate a systems-based methodology to identify and evaluate cascading climate change impacts and implications. We illustrate its application using the case of a participatory process with urban infrastructure managers, facing the legacy effects of damaging earthquakes and the prospect of future climate change. The results show the proposed approach and visualisation of cascades as causal diagrams provides a robust and flexible analytical framework. The use of systems thinking, visual aids, interactive discussion and expert elicitation generated valuable information about potential cascades, their interactions across domains of interest, and the implications for management. The process can provide a basis for further empirical application and advance methodological and conceptual development. Specifically, the systems methodology: • Identifies interdependencies and interconnections which may serve as transmission pathways for climate-related impacts; • Enhanced stakeholders’ understanding of multiple causes and effects of climate change; and • Produced a useful visual aid for stakeholders to explore cascading impacts and implications, and opportunities for intervention.

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.718017288.793493740 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Helen Yap

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Coral Reefs ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change

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Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-020-18740-x ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Camille Leclerc ◽

Franck Courchamp ◽

Céline Bellard

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Pacific Ocean ◽

Adaptive Capacity ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Insular Ecosystems

Abstract Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

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Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China

Environmental Research ◽

10.1016/j.envres.2018.01.047 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 163 ◽

pp. 171-185 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Ying Li ◽

Ting Ren ◽

Patrick L. Kinney ◽

Andrew Joyner ◽

Wei Zhang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Related Mortality

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Developing an Integrative Theoretical Framework for Climate Proofing Spatial Planning Across Sectors, Policy Levels and Planning Areas

10.20944/preprints202105.0410.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Maria Juschten ◽

Florian Reinwald ◽

Roswitha Weichselbaumer ◽

Alexandra Jiricka-Pürrer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Spatial Planning ◽

Conceptual Development ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Holistic Approach ◽

Theoretical Framework ◽

Federal States ◽

Planning Experts ◽

Urban And Regional Development

Spatial planning holds a key role in preventing or mitigating the impacts of climate change on both cities and rural areas, taking a forward-thinking and holistic approach to urban and regional development. As such, spatial planning deals with challenges occurring at different scales and across sectors. The international literature points out the need for horizontal and vertical cooperation to tackle climate change impacts. While there is abundant knowledge regarding the challenges related to climate change at different spatial levels, procedural integration into planning frameworks and practice is currently under-researched. This paper presents a novel theoretical framework that integrates various steps towards a holistic, integrative and adaptive climate proofing process. An iterative process was used for conceptual development, based on literature review followed by external feedback meetings and two workshops with the core team of planning experts responsible for exchange across federal states. By specifically addressing the challenges relating to cross-regional and cross-sectoral planning, this novel framework attempts to (i) facilitate a hierarchy of measures, (ii) maximise co-benefits for various adaptation purposes and climate change mitigation and (iii) foster the long-term institutionalisation of integrative processes across sectors, planning areas and policy levels.

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As Experiências da Coalizão Adapta Sertão na Disseminação de Tecnologias e Estratégias de Adaptação à Mudança Climática para o Agricultor Familiar do Semiárido Brasileiro (The experience of the Adapta Sertão Coalition in Disseminating Climate Change...)

Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física ◽

10.26848/rbgf.v4i6.232776 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 4 (6) ◽

pp. 1336 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Daniele Cesano ◽

Emilio Lèbre La Rovere ◽

Martin Obermaier ◽

Thais Corral ◽

Laise Santos da Silva ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Production Systems ◽

Public Policies ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Small Farmers ◽

Family Farming ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Access To Water ◽

Semi Arid

Este artigo descreve a experiência da coalizão Adapta Sertão na experimentação e disseminação de sistemas produtivos que possam tornar o agricultor familiar do Semiárido mais resiliente aos impactos da variação climática atual e da mudança do clima no futuro. Durante as experimentações, a coalizão teve que enfrentar várias barreiras ligadas à falta de integração entre políticas públicas existentes e projetos pilotos em comunidades locais. Hoje, a adaptação à mudança do clima não está sendo considerada na implementação de obras hídricas de pequeno e médio porte, que são de grande importância porque, geralmente, conseguem beneficiar as faixas de população mais pobres e mais suscetíveis aos impactos climáticos. As experiências mostram que é preciso desenvolver, com urgência, políticas públicas inovadoras que consigam integrar o acesso à água com a disseminação de tecnologias de adaptação e de sistemas produtivos mais resilientes à seca. Palavras - chave: medidas de adaptação, agricultura familiar, semiárido, tecnologia. The experience of the Adapta Sertão Coalition in Disseminating Climate Change Adaptation Technologies and Strategies for Family Farmers in Semi Arid Brazil ABSTRACTThis paper describes the experience of the Adapta Sertão coalition in testing and experimenting production systems that have the potential to make small farmers of semi-arid Brazil more resilient to current and future climate change impacts. During the different testing, the coalition had to overcome several barriers linked to a lack of integration between current public policies. For example, today climate change is not considered in the design and implementation of small and medium hydraulic infrastructures. This limits the benefits to the target groups (small farmers) that are more likely to be affected by climate change. The experiences show that it is urgent and necessary to develop public policies to better integrate access to water, dissemination of climate resilient technologies and implementation of production systems more adequate to the semi arid conditions. Keywords: adaptation measures, family farming, semi-arid, technology.

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Future climate change impacts on residential heating and cooling degree days in Serbia

Időjárás ◽

10.28974/idojaras.2019.3.6 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 123 (3) ◽

pp. 351-370 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Aleksandar Janković ◽

Zorica Podraščanin ◽

Vladimir Djurdjevic

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Degree Days ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

Residential Heating ◽

Cooling Degree Days

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Anthropogenic climate change detected in natural and human systems of the world’s mountains

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2257 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christian Huggel ◽

Simon K. Allen ◽

Indra D. Bhatt ◽

Rithodi Chakraborty ◽

Fabian Drenkhan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Indigenous Communities ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Mountain Regions ◽

Wide Range ◽

Mountain Systems ◽

Human Systems

Mountains cover about a quarter of the Earth&#8217;s land surface and are home to or serve a substantial fraction of the global population with essential ecosystem services, in particular water, food, energy, and recreation. While mountain systems are expected to be highly exposed to climate change, we currently lack a comprehensive global picture of the extent to which environmental and human systems in mountain regions have been affected by recent anthropogenic climate change.Here we undertake an unprecedented effort to detect observed impacts of climate change in mountains regions across all continents. We follow the approach implemented in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and follow-up research where we consider whether a natural or human system has changed beyond its baseline behavior in the absence of climate change, and then attribute the observed change to different drivers, including anthropogenic climate change. We apply an extensive review of peer-reviewed and grey literature and identify more than 300 samples of impacts (aggregate and case studies). We show that a wide range of natural and human systems in mountains have been affected by climate change, including the cryosphere, the water cycle and water resources, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, energy production, infrastructure, agriculture, health, migration, tourism, community and cultural values and disasters. Our assessment documents that climate change impacts are observed in mountain regions on all continents. However, the explicit distinction of different drivers contributing to or determining an observed change is often highly challenging; particularly due to widespread data scarcity in mountain regions. In that context, we were also able to document a high amount of impacts in previously under-reported continents such as Africa and South America. In particular, we have been able to include a substantial number of place-based insights from local/indigenous communities representing important alternative worldviews.The role of human influence in observed climate changes is evaluated using data from multiple gridded observational climate products and global climate models. We find that anthropogenic climate change has a clear and discernable fingerprint in changing natural and human mountain systems across the globe. In the cryosphere, ecosystems, water resources and tourism the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed changes is significant, showing the sensitivity of these systems to current and future climate change. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the need to consider the plurality of knowledge systems through which climate change impacts are being understood in mountain regions. Such attempts at inclusivity, which addresses issues of representation and justice, should be deemed necessary in exploring climate change impacts.

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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Eastern Africa

Advances in Environmental Engineering and Green Technologies - Hydrology and Water Resources Management in Arid, Semi-Arid, and Tropical Regions ◽

10.4018/978-1-7998-0163-4.ch010 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 199-227 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Alfred Opere ◽

Anne Omwoyo ◽

Purity Mueni ◽

Mark Arango

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Stream Flow ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Equatorial Region ◽

Eastern Africa ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Grazing Land ◽

Groundwater Aquifers

Climate change is causing great impact on water resources in Eastern Africa, and there is need to establish and implement effective adaptation and mitigation measures. According to IPCC, less rainfall during the months that are already dry could increase drought as well as precipitation, and this has great impact on both permanent and seasonal water resources. Increased sea surface temperature as a result of climate change could lead to increased drought cases in Eastern African and entire equatorial region. Climate change will also result in annual flow reduction in various river resources available within the region such as the Nile River. IPCC predicts that rainfall will decrease in the already arid areas of the Horn of Africa and that drought and desertification will become more widespread, and as a result, there will be an increased scarcity of freshwater even as groundwater aquifers are being mined. Wetland areas are also being used to obtain water for humans and livestock and as additional cultivation and grazing land. This chapter reviews the climate change impacts on water resources within the Eastern Africa Region. The climate change impacts on different water resources such as Ewao Ngiro have been highlighted and projection of future climate change on water resources examined. Stream flow for Ewaso Ngiro was found to have a significant increasing trend in 2030s of RCP4.5 and non-significant decreasing trend in stream flow in 2060s for RCP4.5.

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