scholarly journals ARE THE EFFECTS OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY ON FINANCIAL MARKETS CAUSING BUBBLES?

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lacalle
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asset Classes

Cheap money can become very expensive in the long run. Unconventional monetary policies have been the main tools of central banks to tackle the economic crisis. In this paper we aim to understand whether these policies have created distortions in the fi nancial markets and if we can be concerned about the creation of “bubbles”, considering whether quantitative easing has impacted fi nancial asset classes’ valuations beyond reasonable fundamentals. I conclude that there is empirical evidence of inordinate expansion of multiples and that central bank policy makers should include “fi nancial market infl ation” as well as consumer price indices (CPI) in their assessment of infl ation expectations. I believe that this should be an essential analysis to avoid unintended consequences in the future, and a possible next fi nancial crisis that central banks will be unable to face with the same tools of the past.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Effects of the Fed’s Monetary Policy on the Dynamics among Major Asset Classes

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-19
Author(s):  
Jia Miao
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract It is well known that government monetary policies significantly impact financial markets. There have been numerous studies examining the relationship between monetary policy and the prices of financial assets, including equities and bonds. Little, however, has been done to explore the impact of major financial assets on changes in monetary policies. This study examines the impacts of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on the dynamics of major financial assets in the U. S. For this purpose, cointegration was tested for between equities, bonds and real estate markets in the period 1980 to 2014, whereas the U. S. monetary base M2 was used as an exogenous variable. Our cointegration tests suggest that the exogenous component of the U. S. M2 significantly affected the interaction among major U. S. financial assets. These findings have implications for both policymakers and market practitioners in terms of portfolio allocation rules.

FED's Unconventional Monetary Policy and Correlation Dynamics Among Conventional and Alternative Investments

2020 ◽  
pp. 37-56
Author(s):  
Ioannis Tsakalos ◽  
Efthymios Roumpis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Alternative Investments ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
The U.S

This chapter investigates the correlations between conventional and alternative investments during the quantitative easing (QE) programs launched by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Authors focus on different asset classes to examine the dynamics on their correlations and to highlight alternative investment options for rational investors and policy makers. Their analysis covers the period from January 3, 2005 to March 16, 2018. Research has significant policy implications and the empirical findings indicate a ripple effect of QE across conventional and alternative investments and suggest that their correlations differ by QE periods. Researchers also confirm the effectiveness of the portfolio rebalance channel pictured on specific assets' correlation sign, as well as the existence of specific patterns. UMP programs create portfolio rebalance since investors followed the required path set by the Fed.

The Association Between Bank Credit Terms and Conditions and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 247-256
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Anastasiou ◽  
Konstantinos Drakos
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Loan Terms ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle

Abstract We explored the trajectory of bank loan terms and conditions over the business cycle, where the latter was decomposed into its long-run (trend) and short-run (cyclical) components. We found that deterioration of each business cycle component leads to a significant tightening of credit terms and conditions. We found mixed results concerning the symmetry of impacts of the short and long run components. Symmetry was found between the terms and conditions on loans for small vs. large enterprises. Our findings provide very useful information to policy makers and should be taken into consideration when monetary policies are designed.

Market dominance and endogenous decline: the contribution of historical analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-183
Author(s):  
Bas van Bavel
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Social History ◽  
Feedback Loop ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Invisible Hand ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Factor Markets ◽  
Political Leverage ◽  
Endogenous Process

AbstractThe advances in economic and social history over the past years enabled me to empirically test assumptions about the long-run development of markets. The review by Geoff Hodgson of the resulting book, The Invisible Hand?, is lucid but incomplete. I argue that the rise to dominance of factor markets, followed by that of financial markets, took place already in several early cases, and that all market economies, through an endogenous process, saw the accumulation of wealth and, next, the translation of this wealth into political leverage, creating a feedback loop with negative outcomes which is very hard to break.

scholarly journals Does Evidence Challenge the Dsge Model?

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Tanya Araújo ◽  
Sofia Terlica ◽  
Samuel Eleutério ◽  
Francisco Louçã
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Return To Equilibrium ◽  
Basic Assumptions

ABSTRACT DSGE are for a time the favorite models in the simulation of monetary policies at the central banks. Two of its basic assumptions are discussed in this paper: (a) the absence of endogenous nonlinearities and the exogenous nature of shocks and (b) the persistence of or the return to equilibrium after a shock, or the absence of dynamics. Our analysis of complex financial markets, using historical data of S&P500, suggests otherwise that financial regimes endogenously change and that equilibrium is an artifact.

scholarly journals Does evidence challenge the DSGE model?

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya Araújo ◽  
Sofia Terlica ◽  
Samuel Eleutério ◽  
Francisco Louçã
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Return To Equilibrium ◽  
Basic Assumptions

DSGE are for a time the favorite models in the simulation of monetary policies at the central banks. Two of its basic assumptions are discussed in this paper: (a) the absence of endogenous nonlinearities and the exogenous nature of shocks and (b) the persistence of or the return to equilibrium after a shock, or the absence of dynamics. Our analysis of complex financial markets, using historical data of S&P500, suggests otherwise that financial regimes endogenously change and that equilibrium is an artifact.

scholarly journals The Financial Crisis Response. Comparative Analysis Between European Union And USA

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florentina Melnic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Crisis Response ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper reviews the measures adopted by central banks from the most important economies during the crisis and assess their effectiveness. It is important for policy makers to identify which measures were effective in limiting the financial system distress in order to adopt the appropiate measure during future crisis. In case of US, TARP was the most important program for banking system and it was effective in reducing banks’ contribution to systemic risk and banks’ default probabilities. But TARP also conducted to a reduction in loans growth and create incentives for higher risk-taking behavior. The unconventional monetary policies adopted by ECB during the period 2008- 2016 reduced the impact of the crisis on the European economy and achieved their objectives: to support banks’ funding and to increase lending to real economy (LTROs), to calm tensions from bond markets (CBPP, SMP, OMT), to support economic activity and to stabilize inflation rate (SMP, OMT, LTROs, APP).

scholarly journals Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zekeriya Yildirim ◽  
Mehmet Ivrendi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
International Financial Markets ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Us

AbstractThis study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy (UMP)—frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing (QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies, using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data. Blinder (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Rev 92(6): 465–479, 2010) argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads, such as term and risk premiums. Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence, we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP: the mortgage and term spreads. Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries, our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risk-taking behavior of investors. This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world. The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures. QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread. Furthermore, the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.

scholarly journals Communication, Credibility, and Price Stability: Lessons Learned from Japan

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Owen F. Humpage
Keyword(s):  
Central Banks ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Public ◽  
European Central ◽  
The Past ◽  
Central Bankers

Over the past couple of decades, central banks have been taking steps to increase the transparency of their monetary policies through clearer communications with the public. While there are many differences between the economic challenges Japan has been struggling with in the past decade and those facing U.S. and European central bankers now, we can learn a great deal about combating deflation from Japan’s experiences.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Monetary Easing In The Eurozone: Lessons Learnt From Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leef Dierks
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Fixed Income ◽  
Fixed Income Securities ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
European Central ◽  
Bank Of Japan

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) unconventional monetary policy has so far failed to deliver the much-anticipated results. In October 2019, the euro area’s (EA-19) HICP-inflation fell to a three-year low of just 0.7% year-over-year (y/y), thus being far below the ECB’s goal of “below, but close to 2.00% over the medium term”. By November 2019, HICP-inflation had recovered to a modest 1.0% (y/y) with seasonally-adjusted Eurozone GDP growing at a disappointing 1.2% (y/y) in Q3 2019 compared with the same quarter of the previous year (Eurostat, 2019). Inevitably, these developments raise the question to what extent the ECB might eventually consider extending its Quantitative Easing (QE) program, i.e. its €2.6tn asset purchase programs (APP) beyond the ongoing €20bn-per-month purchase of fixed income securities. Any further easing could, for example, foresee an enhancement of the securities purchased to inter alia include shares of stock. In contrast to widely held beliefs, this by no means were an entirely unprecedented phenomenon, but corresponded to measures (so-called comprehensive monetary easing, CME) adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as early as 2010 (Bank of Japan, 2010a). Notwithstanding the BoJ’s CME, however, HICP-inflation in Japan fell to 0.0% (y/y) in December 2019, the latest date for which data were available, which caused annual HICP-inflation for the full year to drop to only 0.8% (y/y). Based on the experiences gained in Japan, and notwithstanding a potential revision of the ECB’s inflation target to a 1.5% to 2.5% range, this contribution will analyse the extent to which an expansion of the ECB’s set of hitherto employed unconventional monetary policies through CME could sustainably stimulate economic growth - and inflation - in the euro area. Preliminary results suggest a rather muted impact.

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