scholarly journals Does evidence challenge the DSGE model?

Author(s):  
Tanya Araújo ◽  
Sofia Terlica ◽  
Samuel Eleutério ◽  
Francisco Louçã

DSGE are for a time the favorite models in the simulation of monetary policies at the central banks. Two of its basic assumptions are discussed in this paper: (a) the absence of endogenous nonlinearities and the exogenous nature of shocks and (b) the persistence of or the return to equilibrium after a shock, or the absence of dynamics. Our analysis of complex financial markets, using historical data of S&P500, suggests otherwise that financial regimes endogenously change and that equilibrium is an artifact.

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Tanya Araújo ◽  
Sofia Terlica ◽  
Samuel Eleutério ◽  
Francisco Louçã

ABSTRACT DSGE are for a time the favorite models in the simulation of monetary policies at the central banks. Two of its basic assumptions are discussed in this paper: (a) the absence of endogenous nonlinearities and the exogenous nature of shocks and (b) the persistence of or the return to equilibrium after a shock, or the absence of dynamics. Our analysis of complex financial markets, using historical data of S&P500, suggests otherwise that financial regimes endogenously change and that equilibrium is an artifact.


2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lacalle

Cheap money can become very expensive in the long run. Unconventional monetary policies have been the main tools of central banks to tackle the economic crisis. In this paper we aim to understand whether these policies have created distortions in the fi nancial markets and if we can be concerned about the creation of “bubbles”, considering whether quantitative easing has impacted fi nancial asset classes’ valuations beyond reasonable fundamentals. I conclude that there is empirical evidence of inordinate expansion of multiples and that central bank policy makers should include “fi nancial market infl ation” as well as consumer price indices (CPI) in their assessment of infl ation expectations. I believe that this should be an essential analysis to avoid unintended consequences in the future, and a possible next fi nancial crisis that central banks will be unable to face with the same tools of the past.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (292) ◽  
Author(s):  
Can Sever ◽  
Rohit Goel ◽  
Dimitris Drakopoulos ◽  
Evan Papageorgiou

The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in the form of asset purchase programs. In this study, we analyze the effects of these announcements on domestic financial markets using both event studies and local projections methodology. We find that these asset purchase announcements lowered bond yields, did not lead to a depreciation of domestic currencies, and did not have much effect on equities. While the immediate effect of asset purchases appears positive, further consideration of the risks and longer-term effects of unconventional monetary policies is needed. We highlight the trade-offs involved with the implementation of these measures, and discuss their risks. This working paper adds to the debate on how asset purchase programs should be a regular part of the emerging market policy toolkit.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigeki Ono

This paper investigates the spillovers of US conventional and unconventional monetary policies to Russian financial markets using VAR-X models. Impulse responses to an exogenous Federal Funds rate shock are assessed for all the endogenous variables. The empirical results show that both conventional and unconventional tightening monetary policy shocks decrease stock prices whereas an easing monetary policy shock does not increase stock prices. Moreover, the results suggest that an unconventional tightening monetary policy shock increases Russian interest rates and decreases oil prices, implying reduced liquidity in international financial markets.


According to a common recurring analysis approach, most studies have defined the present external and universal internal deficit crisis, as the result of a wrong financial deregulation appearing in most modern financial markets. Speculation pressures, relaxing policies, monitoring over banks capital and bank governance models, seem as paying a widespread role as well. On the contrary, some historical and present new behavioral viewpoints show a uniform result of new general widespread monetary mismanagement attitudes, in a global new monetary perspective. Both Western financial markets and the new European single currency creation are showing same surfacing effects, which are generally large internal national deficits, huge trade imbalances and growing unemployment rates. The general market collapses that occurred up to the last 2008 unexpected monetary disintegration, considered firstly as the logical final effect of deep systematic crisis, as never before interlinked during the the twentieth century, has brought to a confused and contradictory row of financial irrecoverable shocks. Stemming from the monetary dissolution materialized during the First World War and never recovered, but for the short Bretton Woods interlude, the international and most of national payment systems are nowadays in a liquidity, interest rates and severe taxation single trap. My firm belief is that what happened at the end of the last century is not the consequence of some specific well-defined deregulation or mismanagement of financial institutions and markets, neither a structural collapse of some previous deteriorated model, or a cyclical evolving of market tendencies. On the contrary, what surfaced from September 1987 to August 2008 and after, has been as well unfolding up to now as an unavoidable effect of the single monetary secular debasement and unproductive and inefficient macroeconomic policies and the disregard of minor welfare and micro-economic frontiers and boundaries inconsistent in a fast enlarging competitive world. In 2016, the 1987-2008 global financial bubbles, from peripheral defaults or market plunges, has become the “final euro crisis." As well, the 19 countries of the EMS, issuing the single euro currency, apart from symptoms of economic stagnation and useless recurring monetary policies, acknowledged internal and external huge rigid trade unbalances. Some countries have been sliding into deficits for years, while the governing powers of the Eurozone have intervened from emergency to emergency, most deeply in Greece. In the Euro contest, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz (Stiglitz, 2016) has been dismantling the first hour prevailing consensus around, which affected Europe, demolishing the stronghold of austerity, and has been offering a series of discussible plans that could rescue the continent and the related parties from further depression.


Author(s):  
Ryszard Kokoszczyński ◽  
Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak

There are numerous theoretical and empirical studies on interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Even if the independence of central banks affects those interactions, it has rarely been directly included in those studies. In this chapter, we present two general approaches to empirical studies on interactions between those two policies and the possibilities for inclusion of independence of central banks in their modelling. Generally, the first approach has poor theoretic background and relies on simple models describing rules for fiscal and monetary policies. Those models also include proxies for some aspects of fiscal policy. Similarly, some simple measures usually address the independence of central banks. The second approach most often roots in the fiscal theory of the price level. The overwhelming majority of presented studies report a significant impact of the central banks’ independence in the form of a more sustainable policy using the first approach.


Author(s):  
Ranald C. Michie

By the 1990s the combination of internal deregulation and globalization led to a spectacular growth in the value of financial transactions both inside countries and across borders. There was a commensurate increase in pressure on payment and settlement systems to cope with the huge volume and variety of transactions. All this was of concern to those who regulated financial systems around the world. The speed and extent of the changes taking place, assisted by the advances made in the technology of communication and data handling, forced regulators to search for new ways of coping with the consequences, as the methods of the past were becoming inadequate. Globalization meant that national boundaries could no longer define the parameters within which financial systems operated, as all became integrated into international flows of short-term money and long-term finance. The complexities arose not only from the process of globalization and technological change but also from the disappearance of the barriers that had long separated different components within national financial systems. Rather than serving separate communities banks and financial markets increasingly competed with each other. In the face of these enormous changes regulators turned to the megabanks as a safe and secure way of monitoring and policing global financial markets. There was an implicit belief that the size and sophistication of these megabanks had made them to big to fail or even require the central banks to play a role as lenders of last resort.


Author(s):  
Bronislav Klapuch

The chapter puts into the business of financial markets area in greater detail at FOREX currency market. It describes the main methods used for in currencies trade. The main goal of this paper is to explain the principle of creating an Automated Trading System (ATS) with the MQL4 language. The chapter shows concrete architectural elements of the program on the demonstration examples and it is a guide for the development of an ATS. The main benefit is creation of the original trading system, which optimizes an ATS usage on the base of historical data in practice. Optimization of the trading parameters is based on the equity performance in the historical periods.


2020 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 04006
Author(s):  
Boris Fisera ◽  
Jana Kotlebova

The ongoing process of globalization has affected the way the monetary policy is conducted – and this is especially the case of small open economies, where the economic developments are heavily affected by the developments abroad. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of unconventional monetary policy in two very open economies – Slovakia and the Czech Republic in the post-crisis era – the two rather similar very open economies. We assess the effects of their monetary policies by estimating their impact on the banking sector in both countries. We employ two cointegrating estimators – DOLS and FMOLS, so that we can assess the dynamics of the relationship between the developments of main balance sheet items of the respective central banks and the aggregate bank lending to various sectors of the economy. We do find evidence that unconventional policies of both central banks did lift bank lending – with the effect being stronger in Slovakia and for the QE policies. In both countries, the effect was more pronounced for the bank lending to household sector – specifically on housing related loans. Finally, we do not find evidence that the increasing openness of these two already very open economies affected the transmission of monetary policies into the banking sector.


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