scholarly journals Rotavirus in Spain (2000-2004): a predictive model for a surveillance system

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
F J Luquero ◽  
J M Eiros ◽  
E Sanchez-Padilla ◽  
J Castrodeza ◽  
F Simón-Soria ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information System ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Direct Relationship ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Rotavirus Vaccines ◽  
Rotavirus Infections

Rotavirus infection is one of the main causes of acute gastroenteritis and has an important impact on hospitalisation. There is no homogeneous surveillance system for rotavirus infections in Europe. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model in order to estimate the expected rotavirus infections in the population covered by a hospital. A five year study (2000-2004) was developed in a Spanish university hospital. A correlation test between the notifications reported to the Microbiological Information System (SIM) and hospitalisations was carried out, as well as a time series analysis, obtaining the trend and the cyclical components. The predictive model was adjusted using the least squares method. A direct relationship between the microbiological isolations and the hospitalisations was established (=0.925; p<0.001). A significant annual cycle was observed, with the peak of cases occurring in February. The two principal outbreaks that occurred in the study period would have been detected with the predictive model. Expected rotavirus cases and hospitalisations for 2005 and 2006 were obtained. The notifications of rotavirus infections reported to SIM are adequate in order to establish a hospital surveillance system, but a predictive model which provides expected cases is also necessary. Therefore, this tool will be useful to evaluate preventive measures such as rotavirus vaccines, which will soon be available in Europe.

scholarly journals Trend of fall-related mortality among the elderly

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yara Cristina Martins Monteiro ◽  
Maria Aparecida da Silva Vieira ◽  
Priscila Valverde de Oliveira Vitorino ◽  
Silvio José de Queiroz ◽  
Gabriela Moreira Policena ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information System ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Temporal Trend ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Variation Rate ◽  
Related Mortality

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trend of fall-related mortality in elderly in Brazil from 2008 to 2016. Method: Study of time series of rates of fall-related mortality according to CID-10 from 2008 to 2016. Data from the Mortality Information System on death registers of people ≥ 60 living in Brazil were used. The specific rates of fall-related mortality among the elderly were calculated through the ratio between the number of deaths and the elderly population of that year and region. The populational information was obtained from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. The variation rate and temporal trend were obtained through linear regression (p < 0.05). Results: The fall-related deaths among the elderly aged ≥ 60 amounted to 72,234 (31.2%). Falls from the same level were the most frequent (53.8%) and death rates in all ages ranged from 29.7 to 44.7 per 100,000 elders. Fall-related deaths increased with age. Conclusion: There was a growing trend of fall-related deaths among elderly in all age groups, an event which is avoidable through the adoption of preventive measures. The high rates and growing trend of fall-related deaths, as well as the aging of the Brazilian population, suggest that public policies for protecting the elderly must be prioritized.

scholarly journals The evolving epidemiology of acute gastroenteritis in hospitalized children in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brigida Stanyevic ◽  
Margherita Sepich ◽  
Samanta Biondi ◽  
Giampiero Igli Baroncelli ◽  
Diego Peroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Gastroenteritis ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Hospitalized Children ◽  
Rotavirus Vaccines ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Causative Agents ◽  
Few Data ◽  
Rotavirus Infections

AbstractFew data are available on the prevalence and features of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in hospitalized children in Italy, where specific rotavirus vaccines were introduced into the national vaccination plan in 2017. To evaluate vaccination effects on AGE epidemiology, we analysed data from children aged ≤ 18 years admitted for AGE at the University Hospital of Pisa in 2019, comparing them with those recorded in 2012. Demographical, clinical, diagnostic, and treatment data were collected reviewing medical records and were therefore compared. In 2019 and 2012, 86 (median age 2.5 years [IQR 1.4–5.9]) and 85 children (median age 2.3 years [IQR 1.3–5.1]) were respectively admitted with AGE. The most common symptoms were diarrhoea and vomiting; decreased skin turgor was more frequent in 2019 (54% and 34% respectively, p = 0.01). Viral infections were more common than bacterial ones; in 2019, a decrease in rotavirus infections (67% and 22%, p = 0.003) and an increase in adenovirus infections (50% and 10%, p = 0.002) and in the number of patients with negative stool testing (58% and 39%, p = 0.04) were found.Conclusions: Viral infections are the leading cause of AGE in hospitalized children in Italy. The introduction of rotavirus vaccines did not reduce the number of hospitalizations per year. Adenovirus and other non-routinely screened viruses may be undergoing a selection process making them common causative agents for AGE. What is Known:• Rotavirus is the leading cause of acute severe gastroenteritis in children worldwide, especially < 5 years of age.• The introduction of specific vaccines may be changing its epidemiology.• Few data are available on acute gastroenteritis in hospitalized children in Italy. What is New:• Viral infections are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in hospitalized children in Italy.• Specific vaccines are reducing rotavirus infections, but adenovirus and other non-routinely screened viruses may be undergoing a selection process making them common causative agents for gastroenteritis.

scholarly journals Number of hospitalizations for stroke before and during the new Coronavirus pandemic in Salvador-BA

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliana Pugas Paim Lima ◽  
Ian Vítor Moura Giudice de Argôllo ◽  
Caroline Silva Calixto Dourado ◽  
Rodrigo Libertador Dourado Campos Werneck
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information System ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Neurological Deficit ◽  
Hospital Information System ◽  
Direct Relationship ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Prevention And Treatment

Introduction: Salvador was deeply affected by Sars-CoV-2. Because of the fear of contamination, many stopped seeking medical attention for the prevention and treatment of serious illnesses, such as stroke. This is defined as the appearance of a sudden neurological deficit caused by an alteration in the blood vessels of the CNS, being classified as ischemic and hemorrhagic. Objectives: To describe a relationship between the number of strokes hospitalizations from January / 2019 to March / 2020, which preceded the new Coronavirus pandemic, and the period of social isolation, from March / 2020 to October / 2020. Methods: The study was done with aggregated data, being longitudinal observational (time series) based on data collected in the SUS Hospital Information System (SIH / SUS) available at DATASUS. Results: A peak of hospitalizations for stroke is observed in April / 2019, with 350 cases. During the same year, hospitalizations fluctuated between 200 and 300 cases. At the beginning of 2020, this number remained on schedule, with an average of 250 hospitalizations. As of April, however, there is a fall, with May / 2020 reaching the lowest number of hospitalizations recorded in the entire period studied. This deviation is also observed in the remaining months of 2020. Conclusion: The pandemic may have a direct relationship with the number of hospitalizations in Salvador. Due to fear of contamination, there was a significant drop in the number of consultations, increasing the likelihood of deaths from stroke.

scholarly journals Variable clinical characteristics and laboratory results in five patients with Chinese Good's syndrome (thymoma and hypogammaglobulinemia): an 8-year retrospective analysis in a university hospital in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinyao Ni ◽  
Junwu Zhang ◽  
Yanxia Chen ◽  
Weizhong Wang ◽  
Jinlin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Lichen Planus ◽  
Hospital Information System ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Opportunistic Infections ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Ivig Treatment ◽  
Good’S Syndrome ◽  
Laboratory Results

Abstract Background Good's syndrome (GS) is a rare secondary immunodeficiency disease presenting as thymoma and hypogammaglobulinemia. Due to its rarity, the diagnosis of GS is often missed. Methods We used the hospital information system to retrospectively screen thymoma and hypogammaglobulinemia patients at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from Apr 2012 to Apr 2020. The clinical, laboratory, treatment, and outcome data for these patients were collected and analyzed. Results Among the 181 screened thymoma patients, 5 thymoma patients with hypogammaglobulinemia were identified; 3 patients had confirmed diagnoses of GS, and the other 2 did not have a diagnosis of GS recorded in the hospital information system. A retrospective review of the clinical characteristics, laboratory results, and follow-up data for these 2 undiagnosed patients confirmed the diagnosis of GS. All 5 GS patients presented with pneumonia, 2 patients presented with recurrent skin abscesses, 2 patients presented with recurrent cough and expectoration, 1 patient presented with recurrent oral lichen planus and diarrhea, and 1 patient presented with tuberculosis and granulomatous epididymitis. In the years after the diagnosis of hypogammaglobulinemia with mild symptoms, all 5 patients had received irregular intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment. As the course of the disease progressed, the clinical symptoms of all patients worsened, but the symptoms were partly resolved with IVIG in these patients. However, 4 patients died due to comorbidities. Conclusion GS should be investigated as a possible diagnosis in thymoma patients who present with hypogammaglobulinemia, especially those with recurrent opportunistic infections, recurrent skin abscesses, chronic diarrhea, or recurrent lichen planus.

Evaluation Study of Different Strategies for Detecting Surgical Site Infections Using the Hospital Information System at Lyon University Hospital, France

2012 ◽  
Vol 255 (5) ◽  
pp. 896-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solweig Gerbier-Colomban ◽  
Monique Bourjault ◽  
Jean-Charles Cêtre ◽  
Jacques Baulieux ◽  
Marie-Hélène Metzger
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Hospital Information System ◽  
Surgical Site Infections ◽  
Evaluation Study ◽  
University Hospital

On the estimation of a harmonic component in a time series with stationary dependent residuals

1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (02) ◽  
pp. 217-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Harmonic Component ◽  
Asymptotic Distributions ◽  
Finite Variance ◽  
Rigorous Derivation ◽  
Image Position ◽  
Vector Valued ◽  
Special Case

Let observations (X 1, X 2, …, Xn ) be obtained from a time series {Xt } such that where the ɛt are independently and identically distributed random variables each having mean zero and finite variance, and the gu (θ) are specified functions of a vector-valued parameter θ. This paper presents a rigorous derivation of the asymptotic distributions of the estimators of A, B, ω and θ obtained by an approximate least-squares method due to Whittle (1952). It is a sequel to a previous paper (Walker (1971)) in which a similar derivation was given for the special case of independent residuals where gu (θ) = 0 for u &gt; 0, the parameter θ thus being absent.

scholarly journals Nonstationary time series prediction combined with slow feature analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 377-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Wang ◽  
X. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Nonstationary Time Series ◽  
Feature Analysis ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Slow Feature Analysis ◽  
Almost All ◽  
External Driving

Abstract. Almost all climate time series have some degree of nonstationarity due to external driving forces perturbing the observed system. Therefore, these external driving forces should be taken into account when constructing the climate dynamics. This paper presents a new technique of obtaining the driving forces of a time series from the slow feature analysis (SFA) approach, and then introduces them into a predictive model to predict nonstationary time series. The basic theory of the technique is to consider the driving forces as state variables and to incorporate them into the predictive model. Experiments using a modified logistic time series and winter ozone data in Arosa, Switzerland, were conducted to test the model. The results showed improved prediction skills.

scholarly journals Perinatal Mortality Analysis in Espírito Santo, Brazil, 2008 to 2017

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 11671
Author(s):  
Italla Maria Pinheiro Bezerra ◽  
José Lucas Souza Ramos ◽  
Micael Colodetti Pianissola ◽  
Fernando Adami ◽  
João Batista Francalino da Rocha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information System ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Perinatal Mortality ◽  
Birth Asphyxia ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Espírito Santo ◽  
Perinatal Mortality Rate ◽  
Espirito Santo

This is an ecological and time-series study using secondary data on perinatal mortality and its components from 2008 to 2017 in Espírito Santo, Brazil. The data were collected from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and Live Births Information System (SINASC) of the Unified Health System Informatics Department (DATASUS) in June 2019. The perinatal mortality rate (×1000 total births) was calculated. Time series were constructed from the perinatal mortality rate for the regions and Espírito Santo. To analyze the trend, the Prais–Winsten model was used. From 2008 to 2017 there were 8132 perinatal deaths (4939 fetal and 3193 early neonatal) out of a total of 542,802 births, a perinatal mortality rate of 15.0/1000 total births. The fetal/early neonatal ratio was 1.5:1, with a strong positive correlation early neonatal mortality rate, perinatal mortality rate, r (9) = 0.8893, with a significance level of p = 0.000574. The presence of differences in trends by health region was observed. Risk factors that stood out were as follows: mother’s age ranging between 10 and 19 or 40 and 49 years old, with no education, a gestational age between 22 and 36 weeks, triple and double pregnancy, and a birth weight below 2499 g. Among the causes of death, 49.70% of deaths were concentrated in category of the tenth edition of the International Classification of Diseases, fetuses and newborns affected by maternal factors and complications of pregnancy, labor, and delivery (P00–P04), and 11.03% were in the category of intrauterine hypoxia and birth asphyxia (P20–P21), both related to proper care during pregnancy and childbirth. We observed a slow reduction in the perinatal mortality rate in the state of Espírito Santo from 2008 to 2017.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Implementation of Electronic Malaria Information System as the National Malaria Surveillance System in Thailand

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. e20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaojin Ma ◽  
Saranath Lawpoolsri ◽  
Ngamphol Soonthornworasiri ◽  
Amnat Khamsiriwatchara ◽  
Kasemsak Jandee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Malaria Surveillance

scholarly journals COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT CRITERIA OF SITE STRUCTURAL STABILITY IN THE TIME SERIES

2019 ◽  
pp. 119-128
Author(s):  
Liliya Andreevna Landman ◽  
Andrei Vladimirovich Faddeenkov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Standard Normal Distribution ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Chow Test ◽  
Wide Range

The concept of structure is used to describe a set of stable relations between the main parts of the object, which describe its integrity and identity, i.e, preserving the basic properties for a wide range of internal and external changes. This concept usually relates to the concepts of system and organization. The structure expresses a stable part of the system that is slightly changed during different reforms. Over the years structural changes take place because of active economic policy or as a result of spontaneous, uncontrollable processes. Therefore, it seems to be quite natural to find out whether there have been structural changes in the observation period, and to find them reflected in the specification of the model. The basic ideas of methods for determining structural changes in the time series dynamics have been considered, such as Chow test, Gujarati test and Poirier method. The power study was conducted for the three possible cases of change in time series trends. The random error was modeled according to the standard normal distribution. A linear multiple regression model with three independent variables was used as a time series model. Estimation of the vector of unknown parameters of the model was conducted using least squares method. For each of the three criteria the of test the null hypothesis about time series instability was carried out using the F -criterion, which involves finding the residual sum of squares of a regression model and analysis of correlation between its decline and the loss of degrees of freedom. It can be noted that Gujarati and Poirier equations have a more complex structure than equation of Chow test; however, using Chow test assumes estimation of the parameters of the three regression equations.

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