scholarly journals Effect of the uncertainty in meteorology on air quality model predictions

Időjárás ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 125 (4) ◽  
pp. 625-646
Author(s):  
Zita Ferenczi ◽  
Emese Homolya ◽  
Krisztina Lázár ◽  
Anita Tóth
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Model System ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Impact

An operational air quality forecasting model system has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the area of Hungary and three big cites of the country (Budapest, Miskolc, and Pécs). The core of the model system is the CHIMERE off-line chemical transport model. The AROME numerical weather prediction model provides the gridded meteorological inputs for the chemical model calculations. The horizontal resolution of the AROME meteorological fields is consistent with the CHIMERE horizontal resolution. The individual forecasted concentrations for the following 2 days are displayed on a public website of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. It is essential to have a quantitative understanding of the uncertainty in model output arising from uncertainties in the input meteorological fields. The main aim of this research is to probe the response of an air quality model to its uncertain meteorological inputs. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. During the past decades, meteorological ensemble modeling has received extensive research and operational interest because of its ability to better characterize forecast uncertainty. One such ensemble forecast system is the one of the AROME model, which has an 11-member ensemble where each member is perturbed by initial and lateral boundary conditions. In this work we focus on wintertime particulate matter concentrations, since this pollutant is extremely sensitive to near-surface mixing processes. Selecting a number of extreme air pollution situations we will show what the impact of the meteorological uncertainty is on the simulated concentration fields using AROME ensemble members.

LONG-TERM SIMULATIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER OVER EUROPE WITH EMPHASIS ON NORTH-RHINE-WESTPHALIA WITH A COMPREHENSIVE AIR QUALITY MODEL SYSTEM

2004 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. S767-S768
Author(s):  
S. WURZLER ◽  
J. GEIGER ◽  
U. HARTMANN ◽  
V. HOFFMANN ◽  
U. PFEFFER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Model System ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model

scholarly journals Transport analysis of ozone enhancement in Southern Ontario during BAQS-Met

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2569-2583 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. He ◽  
D. W. Tarasick ◽  
W. K. Hocking ◽  
T. K. Carey-Smith ◽  
Y. Rochon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Stratospheric Intrusion ◽  
Continuous Surface ◽  
Consistent Picture

Abstract. Twice-daily ozonesondes were launched from Harrow, in southwestern Ontario, Canada, during the BAQS-Met (Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study) field campaign in June and July of 2007. A co-located radar windprofiler measured tropopause height continuously. These data, in combination with continuous surface ozone measurements and geo-statistical interpolation of satellite ozone observations, present a consistent picture and indicate that a number of significant ozone enhancements in the troposphere were observed that were the result of stratospheric intrusion events. The combined observations have also been compared with results from two Environment Canada numerical models, the operational weather prediction model GEM (as input to FLEXPART), and a new version of the regional air quality model AURAMS, in order to examine the ability of these models to accurately represent sporadic cross-tropopause ozone transport events. The models appear to reproduce intrusion events with some skill, implying that GEM dynamics (which also drive AURAMS) are able to represent such events well. There are important differences in the quantitative comparison, however; in particular, the poor vertical resolution of AURAMS around the tropopause causes it to bring down too much ozone in individual intrusions. These campaign results imply that stratospheric intrusions are important to the ozone budget of the mid-latitude troposphere, and appear to be responsible for much of the variability of ozone in the free troposphere. GEM-FLEXPART calculations indicate that stratospheric ozone intrusions contributed significantly to surface ozone on several occasions during the BAQS-Met campaign, and made a moderate but significant contribution to the overall tropospheric ozone budget.

scholarly journals The Impact of “Coal to Gas” Policy on Air Quality: Evidence from Beijing, China

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 3876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Liu ◽  
Xueli Chen ◽  
Jinyang Cai ◽  
Tomas Baležentis ◽  
Yue Li
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Beijing China

Air pollution has become an increasingly serious environmental problem in China. Especially in winter, the air pollution in northern China becomes even worse due to winter heating. The “coal to gas” policy, which uses natural gas to replace coal in the heating system in winter, was implemented in Beijing in the year 2013. However, the effects of this policy reform have not been examined. Using a panel dataset of 16 districts in Beijing, this paper employs a first difference model to examine the impact of the “coal to gas” policy on air quality. Strong evidence shows that the “coal to gas” policy has significantly improved the air quality in Beijing. On average, the “coal to gas” policy reduced sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter smaller than 10 µm (PM10), particulate matter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO) by 12.08%, 4.89%, 13.07%, 11.94% and 11.10% per year, respectively. We find that the “coal to gas” policy is more effective in areas with less energy use efficiency. The finding of this paper suggests that the government should continue to implement the “coal to gas” policy, so as to alleviate the air pollution in Beijing, China.

scholarly journals Evidence on the Impact of Winter Heating Policy on Air Pollution and Its Dynamic Changes in North China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shulin Wang ◽  
Yongtao Li ◽  
Mahfuzul Haque
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
The Public ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
The Impact

Environmental pollution, especially air pollution, is an alarming issue for the public, which is extensively debated among academic scholars. During the winter heating season, “smog” has become somewhat a normal phenomenon to local residents’ livelihood in northern China. Based on the daily air pollution data of regional cities in China from 2014 to 2016, and using a regression discontinuity design (RDD), the study finds that winter heating makes the air quality worse in the northern part of China. With the start of the winter heating, it increases the Air Quality Index (AQI) by 10.4%, particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM10) by 9.77%, particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) by 17.25%, CO by 9.84%, NO2 by 5.23%, and SO2 by 17.1%. Furthermore, dynamic changes demonstrate that air quality has gradually improved due to a series of heating policy changes implemented by the central government in recent years. Specifically, from 2014 to 2016, major indicators measuring the air pollution decrease dramatically, such as AQI by 92.36%, PM10 by 91.24%, PM2.5 by 84.06%, CO by 70.97%, NO2 by 52.76%, and SO2 by 17.15%.

The Impact of Nudging in the Meteorological Model for Retrospective Air Quality Simulations. Part I: Evaluation against National Observation Networks

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (7) ◽  
pp. 1853-1867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya L. Otte
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Dynamic Analyses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Abstract It is common practice to use Newtonian relaxation, or nudging, throughout meteorological model simulations to create “dynamic analyses” that provide the characterization of the meteorological conditions for retrospective air quality model simulations. Given the impact that meteorological conditions have on air quality simulations, it has been assumed that the resultant air quality simulations would be more skillful by using dynamic analyses rather than meteorological forecasts to characterize the meteorological conditions, and that the statistical trends in the meteorological model fields are also reflected in the air quality model. This article, which is the first of two parts, demonstrates the impact of nudging in the meteorological model on retrospective air quality model simulations. Here, meteorological simulations are generated by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) using both the traditional dynamic analysis approach and using forecasts for a summertime period. The resultant fields are then used to characterize the meteorological conditions for emissions processing and air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System. As expected, on average, the near-surface meteorological fields show a significant degradation over time in the forecasts (when nudging is not used), while the dynamic analyses maintain nearly constant statistical scores in time. The use of nudged MM5 fields in CMAQ generally results in better skill scores for daily maximum 1-h ozone mixing ratio simulations. On average, the skill of the daily maximum 1-h ozone simulation deteriorates significantly over time when nonnudged MM5 fields are used in CMAQ. The daily maximum 1-h ozone mixing ratio also degrades over time in the CMAQ simulation that uses MM5 dynamic analyses, although to a much lesser degree, despite no aggregate loss of skill over time in the dynamic analyses themselves. These results affirm the advantage of using nudging in MM5 to create the meteorological characterization for CMAQ for retrospective simulations, and it is shown that MM5-based dynamic analyses are robust at the surface throughout 5.5-day simulations.

scholarly journals Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (13) ◽  
pp. 7703-7723 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Markakis ◽  
M. Valari ◽  
O. Perrussel ◽  
O. Sanchez ◽  
C. Honore
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Emission Inventory ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model ◽  
Quality Modeling ◽  
Forced Air

Abstract. While previous research helped to identify and prioritize the sources of error in air-quality modeling due to anthropogenic emissions and spatial scale effects, our knowledge is limited on how these uncertainties affect climate-forced air-quality assessments. Using as reference a 10-year model simulation over the greater Paris (France) area at 4 km resolution and anthropogenic emissions from a 1 km resolution bottom-up inventory, through several tests we estimate the sensitivity of modeled ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to different potentially influential factors with a particular interest over the urban areas. These factors include the model horizontal and vertical resolution, the meteorological input from a climate model and its resolution, the use of a top-down emission inventory, the resolution of the emissions input and the post-processing coefficients used to derive the temporal, vertical and chemical split of emissions. We show that urban ozone displays moderate sensitivity to the resolution of emissions (~ 8 %), the post-processing method (6.5 %) and the horizontal resolution of the air-quality model (~ 5 %), while annual PM2.5 levels are particularly sensitive to changes in their primary emissions (~ 32 %) and the resolution of the emission inventory (~ 24 %). The air-quality model horizontal and vertical resolution have little effect on model predictions for the specific study domain. In the case of modeled ozone concentrations, the implementation of refined input data results in a consistent decrease (from 2.5 up to 8.3 %), mainly due to inhibition of the titration rate by nitrogen oxides. Such consistency is not observed for PM2.5. In contrast this consistency is not observed for PM2.5. In addition we use the results of these sensitivities to explain and quantify the discrepancy between a coarse (~ 50 km) and a fine (4 km) resolution simulation over the urban area. We show that the ozone bias of the coarse run (+9 ppb) is reduced by ~ 40 % by adopting a higher resolution emission inventory, by 25 % by using a post-processing technique based on the local inventory (same improvement is obtained by increasing model horizontal resolution) and by 10 % by adopting the annual emission totals of the local inventory. The bias of PM2.5 concentrations follows a more complex pattern, with the positive values associated with the coarse run (+3.6 μg m−3), increasing or decreasing depending on the type of the refinement. We conclude that in the case of fine particles, the coarse simulation cannot selectively incorporate local-scale features in order to reduce its error.

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