scholarly journals OPTIMIZATION OF PROJECT DURATION USING CPM METHOD AND MONTE CARLO CRYSTAL BALL SIMULATION

Neutron ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-25
Author(s):  
Muhammad Chilmi ◽  
Diah Ayu Restuti Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Needs Analysis ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Crystal Ball ◽  
Work Activity ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Entire Duration ◽  
Pile Cap

There are many aspects of uncertainty on the project that affect accuracy in the process of the making project schedule, so it needs analysis of the probability of the scheduling and sensitivity of work that affects to completion total duration of the project. The existing schedule of the project Laves Mall proved was late because ignored the uncertainty aspects, by using monte Carlo crystal ball simulation will help to find completion duration of the project with the most efficiency duration, Existing completion duration project is 500 days started on 6 July 2018 to 1 December 2019, after simulation change into 604 days and the project started same as existing duration which is on 6 July 2018 to 15 March 2020 by the deviation of the duration is 104 days or about 3 months. And the highest sensitivity work activity that affects the entire duration completion of projects is cutting off of head pile cap work with sensitivity percentage is 18,8%.

OPTIMALISASI WAKTU PROYEK DENGANMENGGUNAKAN METODE CPM DAN PROBABILITAS WAKTU 3 DURASI (Studi Kasus Proyek Pembangunan Mall Laves Grand Sungkono Lagoon Surabaya)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-25
Author(s):  
Muhammad Chilmi ◽  
Diah Ayu Restuti Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
Concrete Beam ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Concrete Column ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Concrete Foundation ◽  
Scheduling Analysis ◽  
Total Settlement

There is many aspects of uncertainty on the project has led to accuracy in the preparation of the project schedule, Leading to the need scheduling analysis with probability 3 duration so that the different as a supporter who affect in duration total settlement in a project can be controlled and are not too late .An arrangement of scheduling existing on the project mall laves proven cause place aside of uncertainties aspects, so with using cpm method and probability of 3 duration to find the end of the project total duration of the most effective and efficient, the existing of project duration is 500 days the project start on 7 july 2018 and end on 1 december 2019 change into 694 days total duration and project start on the same existing duration project is on 6 july 2018 and end on 26 september 2020 with the deviation time of the day or about 194 days or around 6,5 month. The activities thats on the critical line is structure installment activities (like concrete foundation, concrete beam, concrete column, slab and concrete emergency ladder), ground activities (like cutting of the head of pile),elevator installment activities.

ANÁLISE DE CUSTOS DO FRANGO DE CORTE EM DIFERENTES NÍVEIS DE TECNOLOGIA DE AVIÁRIOS SOB A ÓTICA DA SIMULAÇÃO DE MONTE CARLO

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 112
Author(s):  
Patrícia Regina da Silva Zaluski ◽  
Maria José Pereira Dantas
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Crystal Ball

Neste artigo a Simulação de Monte Carlo (SMC) é aplicada de forma a exemplificar seu uso, avaliando o comportamento dos diferentes tipos de aviários em atender demandas simuladas, com base nas variáveis de preço e custo aplicados à indústria e produtor. O modelo foi implementado em Excel com o apoio do suplemento Crystal Ball. Ao final do artigo pode-se observar o comportamento dos subprodutos do frango de corte sob regime dos diferentes níveis de tecnologia de aviários. Concluiu-se que os aviários climatizados positivo e negativo apresentam semelhanças nos resultados alcançados na simulação, o que demonstra uma baixa relação custo/benefício no investimento em aviários climatizados negativos, pois necessitam de investimento inicial elevado. Este artigo considera uma análise superficial, contemplando apenas uma parcela do cenário real existente ao produtor.

scholarly journals ANÁLISE DA VIABILIDADE DE INVESTIMENTO PELO MODELO TRADICIONAL E ESTOCÁSTICO EM ATIVIDADE AVÍCOLA

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliana Gabiatti ◽  
Alexandre André Feil
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Crystal Ball

A análise consistente que precede o investimento pode ser considerada o diferencial do sucesso do empreendimento. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste estudo é analisar a viabilidade de investimento na produção de frango de corte em propriedade de Westfália-RS, por meio do método tradicional e estocástico. A metodologia empregada é a abordagem quantitativa e os procedimentos técnicos caracterizados pela pesquisa documental primária e entrevista despadronizada. Os resultados relativos à análise tradicional - três cenários - revela apenas o fluxo de caixa projetado no cenário otimista viável. A análise estocástica por meio do Método Monte Carlo - software Crystal Ball - revela resultados e/ou informações mais precisos, sendo que a probabilidade do VPL ser positivo e do investimento ser viável é de 8%. Portanto, conclui-se que as informações geradas pela análise estocástica são consistentes e auxiliam potencialmente na tomada de decisão sobre o investimento, e que deve ser utilizada como um complemento na análise tradicional. Sendo assim, este investimento caracteriza-se como inviável.

On Using Monte Carlo Simulations for Project Risk Management

2016 ◽  
pp. 150-173
Author(s):  
Cristiana Tudor ◽  
Maria Tudor
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
Basic Probability ◽  
The Cost

This chapter covers the essentials of using the Monte Carlo Simulation technique (MSC) for project schedule and cost risk analysis. It offers a description of the steps involved in performing a Monte Carlo simulation and provides the basic probability and statistical concepts that MSC is based on. Further, a simple practical spreadsheet example goes through the steps presented before to show how MCS can be used in practice to assess the cost and duration risk of a project and ultimately to enable decision makers to improve the quality of their judgments.

Risk Management of Construction Schedule by PERT with Monte Carlo Simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 548-549 ◽  
pp. 1646-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Yan Li
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Control Points ◽  
Schedule Management ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Critical Paths ◽  
Construction Schedule

It has been proved that the construction schedule management was an uncertain problem. Traditional CPM method was a good way to define the total duration and critical paths but can not solve uncertainty. The paper use CPM to define the duration and critical path firstly, then defined the parameters with Delphi and make Monte Carlo simulation. Through simulation results, it is found that the probability to finish the work on time was only 35.3%. The following step is to make sensitivity analysis, through the calculation, the work which has large influence was found and treat as key control points. It is proved that Monte Carlo simulation is useful to solve the problem of construction schedule management.

scholarly journals Analysis of modern construction projects using montecarlo simulation technique

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.19) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
A. M. Arunmohan ◽  
M. Lakshmi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Success ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Montecarlo Simulation ◽  
Total Project Cost ◽  
Total Project

Today, Construction based Industry is the prospering industry which has a high economical influence on any nation. Delay in the huge construction project increases the total project cost. Henceforth, uncertainties as well as risks must be significantly regarded during the project. For organizing and completing the projects in a financially, timely and qualitatively accountable manner, careful scheduling of projects is compulsory. Effectual scheduling of project assures project success. This study concentrates on qualitative analysis, risk identification, together with quantitative analysis. The targets are i) to ascertain the key risk aspects that disturb the project schedule, and ii) to find the probability of finishing the project within specified time. Questionnaires are distributed amongst 20 industry practitioners with disparate experience from [1] to [25] years.  Quantitative analysis is made by the methods like Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and PERT. @RISK by Palisade corp. is utilized for MCS.

scholarly journals Uncertainty evaluation from Monte-Carlo simulations by using Crystal-Ball software

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 324-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gustavo Gonzalez ◽  
M. Angeles Herrador ◽  
Agustín G. Asuero
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Uncertainty Evaluation ◽  
Crystal Ball

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of the Lead/Lag Times on the Project Duration Estimates in Highway Construction

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Abdel Raheem ◽  
Jennifer Reyes ◽  
Xiaohui Wang ◽  
Grecia Silva Sanchez ◽  
Alyssa Marie Garza
Keyword(s):  
Highway Construction ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Highway Projects ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Time Sensitivity ◽  
Lag Times ◽  
The Impact

The literature mentions multiple factors that can affect the accuracy of estimating the project duration in highway construction, such as weather, location, and soil conditions. However, there are other factors that have not been explored, yet they can have significant impact on the accuracy of the project time estimate. Recently, TxDOT raised a concern regarding the importance of the proper estimating of the lead/lag times in project schedules. These lead/lag times are often determined based on the engineer’s experience. However, inaccurate estimates of the lead/lag time can result in unrealistic project durations. In order to investigate this claim, the study utilizes four time sensitivity measures (TSM), namely the Criticality Index (CI), Significance Index (SI), Cruciality Index (CRI), and the Schedule Sensitivity Index (SSI) to statistically analyze and draw conclusions regarding the impact of the lead/lag time estimates on the total duration in highway projects. An Excel-based scheduling software was developed with Monte Carlo simulation capabilities to calculate these TSM. The results from this paper show that the variability of some lead/lag times can significantly impact the accuracy of the estimated total project duration. It was concluded that the current practices used for estimating the lead/lag times are insufficient. As such, it is recommended to utilize more robust methods, such as the time sensitivity measures, to accurately estimate the lead/lad times in the projects scheduled.

scholarly journals PSM: A New Approach to Probabilistic Scheduling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benyamin Tedjakusuma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Microsoft Excel ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Probabilistic Scheduling ◽  
Scheduling Method ◽  
Duration Estimation ◽  
Ongoing Project

A new scheduling method, where probability values can be assigned to activity durations, is proposed in this thesis. Probabilistic Scheduling Method (PSM) accepts activity durations tagged with probability or confidence intervals. Tests were carried out using examples of 3,7, and 9 activities to evaluate PSM's practical capability. The comparisons of PSM to Critical Path Method (CPM), Performance Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), and Monte Carlo application to PERT (MC PERT) conclude that PSM results in similar most probable duration estimation. Further tests were implemented to evaluate PSM's capability to project schedule revision on an ongoing project. A microsoft Excel application was used to organize tests data and calculations. PSM computations are more industry friendly. They allow for a range of duration associated with a range of probabilites. PSM provides flexibility and simplicity, and also dependency information that will benefit its user in decision making

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