scholarly journals Forecast the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar using different versions of GARCH models.

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Cointegration of Stock Market and Exchange Rate in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pribawa E Pantas ◽  
Muhamad Nafik Hadi Ryandono ◽  
Misbahul Munir ◽  
Rofiul Wahyudi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study aims to determine the long-term relationship between stock market and exchange rate in Indonesia. The research method used is Johansen cointegration test. The results of this study found no cointegration between the variables tested. Thus the exchange rate, JII, and IHSG have no relationship in the long term. The fluctuation of the rupiah exchange rate in recent years did not generally affect the performance of stock indices especially after the global financial crisis of 2008. This shows the capital market in Indonesia has a good performance so that it is not so sensitive to the sentiment of the decline in the rupiah against the US dollar. This finding is in line with the findings of Syahrer (2010) which states the exchange rate has no effect on the stock market.

Optimistic and pessimistic economic sentiments and US Dollar exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Kumari ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Rana Yassir Hussain ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Haroon Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.

scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate Returns on Equity Prices: Evidence from South Africa and Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Jibrin Daggash ◽  
Terfa W. Abraham
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Uk

This paper examines the exchange rate returns of the Rand (relative to the US dollar) and the Naira (relative to the US dollar) for the presence of volatility. It also examines the effect of the exchange rate returns on the performance of their respective stock market. While it was found that the returns of the South African Rand was volatile, the Nigerian naira was not. Estimating the effect of exchange rate returns and crude oil price on the stock market indices of both countries showed that exchange rate return have a positive effect on the performance of the Nigerian stock exchange thus, confirming the stock flow hypothesis for Nigeria and refuting same for South Africa. Although the VAR granger causality identifies short run fluctuation of the naira as a significant factor affecting the performance of the Nigerian stock exchange in the short run, the Johannesburg stock exchange was found to be mostly affected by short run changes in the Rand and the UK FTSE 100. The paper concludes that policies aimed at stabilizing exchange rate and encouraing more non-oil stocks to be quoted in the Nigerian stock exchange will important. For the Johanesburg stock exchange, raising the listing requirement for firms quoted in the UK FTSE 100 and also seeking listing or already listed in the JSE will be a plausible idea. For both countries, however, curtailing swings in their exchange rate returns would help attract new investments and sustain existing ones hence, helping to spur growth.

scholarly journals The Impact of Trading Information Sets on Exchange Rate Change and Volatility: Evidence From Taiwan

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402110529
Author(s):  
Ying-Sing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Rate Change ◽  
Small Island ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Us ◽  
Information Sets ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the Taiwan Dollar (TWD) as the currency of a small island economy, uses the trading information sets from overseas and the market itself to examine the impacts on the adjustment of daily spot exchange rates. The daily USD/TWD is explained by the trading information sets, contain which the daily trading activities and the ratio of the real body on the daily candlestick chart of technical analysis on the Taipei Foreign Exchange Market, as well as the US-dollar index return to explain the USD/TWD spot rate change. The results showed that some of the USD/TWD changes were related to the US-dollar index return on overseas, and that the effect of the US-dollar index return was not limited to the adjustment rate from the previous closing rate to the opening rate on the day, which would affect the adjustment spot exchange rate in the intraday opening-to-closing period. There is a significant positive relationship between the real body ratio of the daily candlestick chart and the return of the exchange rate, supporting the real body ratio related to the change of the exchange rate. The study model can greatly improve the model interpretation ability of the change of exchange rate by about 50% after considering the trading activity factors. Finally, this study found that the volatility has a positive effect on Mondays and the 2008-financial crisis, and based on the shock that the news of depreciation was higher than the news of appreciation, so there exist asymmetry volatility.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF INTEREST RATE, INFLATION AND NATIONAL INCOME TO RUPIAH THE AMERICAN DOLLARS IN 2006-2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-248
Author(s):  
Muhammad Irsyad Mustaqim ◽  
Saparuddin Mukhtar ◽  
Tuty Sariwulan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
National Income ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This research aims to analyze the effect of interest rates, inflation and national income against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar. As for the data used in this research is secondary data, with this type of time series data in the period 2006-2016 obtained from Bank Indonesia and the World Bank. The method of this research method using exposé facto. Data analysis techniques used in this research is the analysis of multiple regression. By using multiple regression analysis model, the output shows that interest rates (X 1) positive and significant effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Inflation rate (X 2) do not affect the exchange rate of the rupiah significantly to top u.s. dollars (Y). National income (X 3) a positive effect of the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar up (Y). Of test results by looking at their significance value F = 0.000 then it can be said to be 0.05 < simultaneously interest rates, inflation and national income effect significant at α = 5% against the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar in the year 2006-2016. The value of the coefficient of determination (R2) acquired for 0.660 has a sense that the rupiah exchange rate over the US dollar can be explained by the level of interest rates, inflation and national income amounted to 66% while the rest is explained by other factors that do not exist in the model for this research.

scholarly journals Influence Of Australian Coal Export On A$/US$ Exchange Rate: A Longitudinal Study

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Liakat Ali ◽  
Sheikh F. Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Australian Dollar ◽  
The Us ◽  
Australian Coal ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper investigates the contribution of Australian coal export to determine the exchange rate of Australian dollar with the US dollar. The quarterly data of Australian coal export and the Australian dollar exchange rate from 1992-2009 are employed to measure the influence of Australian coal export on A$/US$ exchange rate. This study finds that the Australian coal export has a positive relationship with the exchange rate of A$/US$ and their relationship is becoming stronger. The findings of this research suggest that the volume of Australian coal export contributes about 8% to determine the exchange rate of A$/US$ between the period of 1992-2009. The results of this analysis confirm that for each one million tonnes export increase of Australian coal, the Australian dollar value against the US$ increases by 0.002450 USD.

scholarly journals FENOMENA KURS RUPIAH SEBELUM DAN SELAMA COVID-19

NIAGAWAN ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Pebri Hastuti ◽  
La Ane ◽  
Melati Yahya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wilcoxon Test ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic was first announced by the government on March 2, 2020. COVID-19 has caused many impacts on various economic sectors in Indonesia. Not only in Indonesia but the impact of Covid-19 has disrupted world economic chains. In fact, it has the potential to cause an economic crisis in a number of countries if it is not dealt with quickly and appropriately. Especially in the exchange rate of the rupiah against the United States of America (US) which is increasingly weakening. This study aims to determine differences in the rupiah exchange rate before and during the co-19. The author uses library research instruments, documentation studies, internet browsing, where the data taken is secondary data from relevant agencies obtained from Bank Indonesia publications through Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data, data obtained from Jisdor is the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. This study uses quantitative methods with data analysis tools used are different test methods namely Wilcoxon Test with the help of the computer program SPSS Version 21. Where the data is taken from 7 November 2019 to 28 February 2020 before Covid-19 and during Covid-19 on March 2 until June 30, 2020. The method aims to find out significant differences between the rupiah exchange rates before and during the pandemic. The results of data processing showed that there were significant differences between the rupiah exchange rates before and during the pandemic. So it can be concluded that the spread of Covid-19 in the community will further weaken the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US Dollar.

scholarly journals The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates and World Oil Prices on Gold Prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar Exchange Rate as an Intermediary Variable

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ummi Kalsum ◽  
Randy Hidayat ◽  
Sheila Oktaviani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Path Coefficient ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, and world oil prices on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar exchange rate as an intermediary variable. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The data used are monthly time series data for 2014 - 2019 with a sample of 72 samples. Hypothesis testing in this study uses path analysis, is a development technique of multiple linear regression. This technique is used to test the amount of contribution shown by the path coefficient on each path diagram of the causal relationship between cariables X1, X2, and X3 on and its impact on Z. The results of this study indicate that the effect of inflation, interest rates and worl oil prices on exchange rates individually has very little effect. The effect of inflation, interest rates, world oil prices and the exchange rate on gold prices individually shows a negative value for inflation and interest rates means that the effect is small, while for the world oil price and the dollar exchange rates shows a positive value which means that it has a large effect on the price of gold. The effect of inflation, interest rates and world oil prices on gold prices through the exchange rate, all variable show a negative value, this indicates that the effect is very small.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PEMBENTUKAN HARGA BERAS DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Desi Setiawati ◽  
Edmon Daris ◽  
Mudatsir Najamuddin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Research Model ◽  
A Value ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rice Consumption ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The test results obtained a value of adjusted Rsquare of 90.76%. These results indicate that the formation of rice prices in Indonesia can be explained by the independent variables used in the model is the production of rice, rice consumption, the price of imported rice, and the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar by 90.76%. While the remaining 9.24% is explained by other variables outside this research model. The joined test results indicate variables of domestic rice production, domestic rice consumption, the price of imported rice, and the exchange rate against the US dollar affect the formation of prices of rice in Indonesia with a value of F (42.77) is greater than F table (3.18 ) or probability value is 0.000000 <0.05. Partial test results found that the variable domestic rice production, domestic rice consumption, and the rupiah against the US dollar respectively significantly affect the domestic rice price variables at α = 0.05, whereas the variable import prices did not significantly affect variable domestic rice prices.

The Brazilian Exchange Rate Crisis of January 1999

2002 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
AFONSO FERREIRA ◽  
GIUSEPPE TULLIO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Monetary Reform ◽  
The Real ◽  
Market Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

From the monetary reform of July 1994 until January 1999 Brazil followed the policy of pegging the new currency (the real) to the US dollar. The central rate was initially fixed at 1[ratio ]1 to the US dollar, but no fluctuation band was set and the market rate was allowed to fluctuate substantially. After a sharp appreciation of up to 15 per cent the real remained at a premium to the dollar for two years (until June 1996). In March 1995, following the Mexican crisis, the Banco Central do Brasil adopted a crawling band without preannounced depreciations. This change in policy was meant to increase somewhat the flexibility of the exchange rate regime while still maintaining an anchor for inflationary expectations. The market rate depreciated by 13.9 per cent in the course of 1995 (December 1995 on December 1994), 7.1 per cent in 1996, 7.3 per cent in 1997 and 8.3 per cent in 1998. By December 1998 it had reached 1.2054 to the US dollar, a depreciation of only 20 per cent with respect to the central rate fixed at the end of the hyperinflation but about 40 per cent with respect to the rate prevailing in July 1994.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document