scholarly journals The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on the Dynamic Relationship between Current Account and Exchange Rate: Evidence from D-8 Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (4I) ◽  
pp. 537-556
Author(s):  
Syeda Qurat-Ul-Ain ◽  
Saira Tufail
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
External Sector ◽  
The Relationship

The effect of oil price shocks on global economy has been a great concern since 1970s and has instigated a great deal of research investigating macroeconomic consequences of oil price fluctuations. Later on, the instability in the Middle East and recent oil price hike confirmed the enduring significance of the issue. Though a voluminous body of literature has evolved examining the bearings of oil prices for internal sectors of economies [to name a few, e.g., Barsky and Kilian (2004); Kilian (2008a,b); Hamilton (2008)], the studies analysing the external sector response to oil price shocks are very few [see, e.g. Kilian, et al. (2007)]. The determination of current account and exchange rate—the two major indicators of external sector—has been studied widely in theoretical and empirical literature but mostly the discussion of the two variables largely remained separate [Lee and Chinn (1998)]. Similarly, investigation of simultaneous response of these two variables to an oil price shock remained relatively less ventured avenue of research. Initial work done on the relationship between current account and oil price could not ascertain conclusive link between these two variables.1 Recent work on the issue revealed the diversity of responses of current account of different countries to an oil price shock. For instance, oil price increase deteriorates current account balance of developing countries [OECD (2004); Rebucci and Spatafora (2006); Killian, et al. (2007)] but may improve it if the country happens to be a net oil-exporter. This implies that the relationship depends on the number of factors among which oil dependency of country, oil-intensity of production process2 and responses of non-oil trade balance3 and sources of oil price fluctuations4are of particular significance.

scholarly journals Oil Price Shocks, Fuel Subsidies and Macroeconomic (In)stability in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-38
Author(s):  
Babatunde S. Omotosho
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of oil price shocks and the extant fuel subsidy regime for Nigeria. To do this, we develop and estimate a New-Keynesian DSGE model that accounts for pass-through effect of international oil price into the retail price of fuel. Our results show that oil price shocks generate significant and persistent impacts on output, accounting for about 22 percent of its variations up to the fourth year. Under our benchmark model (i.e. with fuel subsidies), we show that a negative oil price shock contracts aggregate GDP, boosts non-oil GDP, increases headline inflation, and depreciates the exchange rate. However, results generated under the model without fuel subsidies indicate that the contractionary effect of a negative oil price shock on aggregate GDP is moderated, headline inflation decreases, while the exchange rate depreciates more in the short-run. Counterfactual simulations also reveal that fuel subsidy removal leads to higher macroeconomic instabilities and generates non-trivial implications for the response of monetary policy to an oil price shock. Thus, this study cautions that a successful fuel subsidy reform must necessarily encompass the deployment of well-targeted safety nets as well as the evolution of sustainable adjustment mechanisms.

scholarly journals DO OIL PRICE SHOCK, AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET: A STUDY OF THE SAUDI STOCK MARKET

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1234-1242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naushad Alam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Security Market ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock

Purpose of the study: This work aims to find the type of relationship amongst the chosen variables, inflation (INF), short-term interest rate (SIR), money supply (M.S.) and crude oil price (COP) and oil price shocks represented by DUMMY respectively on the capital market of Saudi Arabia. It will also throw insight to policymaker to find factors which influence the capital market of Saudi Arabia and to take remedial measures to boost investment in the country. Research Methodology: The relationships amongst the Saudi security market, the oil price shock, and the selected macroeconomic variables as mentioned above are determined using the Johansen test of co-integration, the vector error correction model, and the Wald test. The research employs the time series data for a period of 2009to 2016, for the study. Findings: The results show a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Saudi stock market and the selected variables for the study. The study shows a positive association between the money supply and the stock market, but inflation, short-term interest rate, and crude oil price, the result indicates a negative relationship. Implications: The present study can have implications for the policymaker to take corrective measures for better performance of the stock market by controlling inflation and regulating the short-term interest rate.As the findings indicate that they have a negative relationship with TASI. This paper will also help the policymaker in identifying the real cause for the decline in the value of the stock price. A good performing stock market means better economic growth and overall economic development. To diversify the economy to have an alternative to the oil-driven economy to a more balanced economy by promoting other sectors like manufacturing and tourism. Novelty/Originality of this study: The literature review confirms that all work of oil price shock is related to its effect on the security market return. This work is different from the other study as it includes macroeconomic variables in the study, together with the oil price shocks. The study is unique from other studies as it is broader in approach, by including more variables than earlier studies which mostly included the oil price shocks and its impact on the stock market. There is no work done to investigate the joint effect of macroeconomic variables and oil price shocks on the Saudi stock market.

scholarly journals Do Oil Price Shocks and Other Factors Create Bigger Impacts on Islamic Banks than Conventional Banks?

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3106
Author(s):  
Jabir Esmaeil ◽  
Husam Rjoub ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Conventional And Islamic Banks

The main aim of this study is to empirically examine and compares the impacts of oil price shocks, Arab revolutions, some macroeconomics, and bank-specific variables on bank profitability indicators between Conventional and Islamic banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study employed panel Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques to examine the causal relationship both at the short and long-run. Our results reveal that most of the variables employed in our study significantly influence Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Net Interest Margin (NIM)/ Net Profit Margin (NPM) for both Conventional Banks (CBs) and Islamic Banks (IBs) similarly in the long run. Findings from our study imply that both CBs and IBs have some similar features in nature, which could be because of the structure of the policies for IBs is in line with the regulatory framework for the CBs. The main finding from the study is the significance of oil price shock and the Arab springs that are more pronounced in CBs than IBs. Also, it can be seen that a sustainable profit of IBs is higher than CBs due to the adjustment speed of IBs to equilibrium in the presence of shock is found to be higher than CBs. Hence, our study suggests that oil price shock could be utilized for having a prudent macro regulation for the banks in GCC countries. Our findings are useful to Government officers, bankers, investors, and researchers for their decision making by estimating future trends of the profitability for both Conventional and Islamic banks in the GCC countries.

scholarly journals The macroeconomics of "Oil Prices" and "Economic Shocks": Lessons from the 1970s

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 79-90
Author(s):  
Deepanshu Mohan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Per Se ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the relationship between oil price shocks and recessions and focuses particularly on the period of stagflation in the 1970s. Nearly every recession in the U.S. since WWII has been preceded by an oil price shock, and examining the literature as to the causal mechanisms finds there are a range of opinions from supply and demand side factors to the precipitated monetary policy response. Evaluating these across a number of countries finds that the mechanisms at play are complex and disputed. This paper reviews the literature and evaluates the various theories put forward before concluding that whilst oil plays a key role in the economy, the recessions following oil price shocks are more likely to be as a result of monetary policy decisions than the oil price shocks per se.

scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on National Income: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1695
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Mubariz Mammadli ◽  
Natig Gadim‒Oglu Hajiyev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Trade Turnover ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the influence of oil price shocks on GDP per capita, exchange rate, and total trade turnover in Azerbaijan using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) method to data collected from 1992 to 2019. The estimation results of the SVAR method conclude that oil price shocks (rise in oil prices) affect GDP per capita and total trade turnover positively, whereas its influence on the exchange rate is negative in the case of Azerbaijan. According to results of this study, Azerbaijan and similar oil-exporting countries should reduce the dependence of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and total trade turnover from oil resources and its prices in the global market. Therefore, these countries should attempt to the diversification of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and other sources of total trade turnover.

Exploring the inflationary effect of oil price in the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of oil price shocks on the US Consumer Price Index over the monthly period from 1876:01 to 2014:04.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the Bai and Perron (2003) structural break test to split the data sample into sub-periods delimited by the computed break dates. Afterwards, the author uses the quantile treatment effects over the full sample and then, by including sub-periods dummies to accommodate the selected structural breaks that drive the relationship between inflation and oil price growth.FindingsThe findings include a decreased transmission effect of oil price changes on inflation in recent years; a varied elasticity of inflation to the growth rate of oil prices across the distribution; and, finally, evidence of asymmetry in the relationship between the growth rate of oil prices and inflation, with a higher transmission mechanism for decreasing rather than increasing oil prices.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should remain alert to monitoring potential inflation increases and should take precautionary measures to anchor inflation expectations, because inflation reacts differently to positive and negative oil price shocks. Moreover, authorities should consider the asymmetric reaction of inflation to oil price shocks to adopt an appropriate monetary policy strategy to achieve the price stability target.Originality/valueThe paper used a quantile regression model with structural breaks, which has not yet been used in the literature.

scholarly journals Monetary Transmission Channel, Oil Price Shock and the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-113
Author(s):  
Adeleke Omolade ◽  
Philip Nwosa ◽  
Harold Ngalawa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstract Research background: The need for diversification of the Nigerian economy has been emphasized and the manufacturing sector has a major role in this. Being an oil producing country, monetary policy is an important macroeconomic policy that has always been used to manage the influence of oil price shock on the manufacturing sector. Purpose: The study examines the relationship between oil price shock, the monetary transmission mechanism and manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. Research methodology: The study applied the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) modelling technique and a descriptive analysis. Results: The results of the study show that the exchange rate is mostly affected by the oil price shock, while the monetary policy instruments and inflation rate are also very responsive to the exchange rate shock. The manufacturing sector output growth has also been shown to be strongly affected by the inflation rate and monetary policy shocks. Novelty: The study has revealed the most effective channel via which oil price shocks affect manufacturing output. The exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is the most significant channel through which oil price shock affects manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. This shows that effective management of the exchange rate policy via the appropriate monetary policy approach can be used to minimize the adverse effect of oil price shocks on Nigerian manufacturing output.

On the asymmetric response of the exchange rate to shocks in the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 839-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamics in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate for a sample from the Group of Twenty (G20) over the period 1994:1-2019:1. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly time series data covering the period1994:1-2019:1, the author first use the non-parametric triples test of Randles et al. (1980) to ascertain the existence of asymmetric properties in the sample of exchange rates. Then the author used the nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the reaction of these exchange rates to the oil price shocks. Findings This study has identified significant evidence that the exchange rate is asymmetrically distributed, with the effect that high appreciation of the exchange rate is followed by slower depreciation. The NARDL results support such asymmetry even more strongly because in the test the exchange rate is shown to react differently in the long term to positive and negative shocks in oil prices. Another major finding was that the speed of adjustment differed over the sample, as the cumulative dynamic multipliers effect highlighted. Research limitations/implications This change in direction and the employment of non-linear technique can be to obtain better insight into the model specification, which the author believes, will not only enhance the findings in the literature but also enhance forecasting and decision-making. Practical implications A practical implication of this change is the possibility that policymakers and participants concerned with exchange rate stability should intervene in the market to alleviate the unfavourable impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate. Originality/value Addressing this nonlinear dynamic in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate have at least the following two important reasons: asymmetry and regime change are types of nonlinearities that affect the market dynamics, especially, over marked sample period with such financial crises as the global financial crises of 2007, thereby violating the linear models. Adopting an asymmetric cointegration technique permits to incorporate cointegrated positive and negative components of the considered series.

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