scholarly journals Long-Term GDP Forecasts and the Prospects for Growth

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
THEODORE MODIS
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Growth Equation ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
The Us ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

The growth of GDP is considered as a natural-growth process amenable to description by the logistic-growth equation. The S-shaped logistic pattern provides good descriptions and forecasts for both nominal and real GDP per capita in the US over the last 80 years. This enables the calculation of a long-term forecast for inflation, which is to enter a declining trend not so far in the future. The two logistics are well advanced, more so for nominal GDP. The assumption for logistic growth works even better for Japan whose nominal GDP per capita has already completed tracing out an entire logistic trajectory. The economic woes of industrialized countries could be attributed to the saturation of growth there, as if a niche in nature had been filled to capacity. In contrast, GDP growth in China and India is in the very early stages of logistic growth still indistinguishable from exponential patterns. The ceiling of these logistics can be anywhere between 7 and 15 times today’s levels.

System Model of Long-Term Technical and Economic Development

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 18-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Energy Intensity ◽  
Capital Intensity ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
System Model ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

The results of the research of dissemination of technical and economic paradigms in developed economies are given. A system model of long-term technical and economic development is developed. The model assumes the simultaneous existence in the economy of several subsystems of different technical and economic paradigms. Each techno-economic paradigm is a new stage of development and different from the previous paradigm of higher productivity. Each subsequent industrial techno-economic paradigm provides higher productivity due to higher capital intensity and energy intensity of production. In the post-industrial techno-economic paradigms the higher performance is provided at a lower capital intensity and energy intensity of production due to a higher volume of information used. Beginning, transition to domination, the beginning of the withering away of each paradigm is accompanied by the formation of an upward half-wave of Kondratieff cycle. Econometric models of Kondratieff cycles and econometric models of real GDP per capita is obtained, provided technical and economic paradigms in developed countries. The fourth techno-economic paradigm provides the real per capita GDP value from 1929 to 3258 dollars Gehry-Hemis 1990. The fifth techno-economic paradigm provides a real GDP per capita value of 11,606 to 12,883 dollars Gehry-Hemis 1990. The sixth techno-economic paradigm provides a real GDP per capita value of 22 360 to 28 385 dollars Gehry-Hemis 1990.

scholarly journals US Real GDP Growth and Impact of Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. p20
Author(s):  
Dhameeth, G.S. ◽  
Diasz, L.
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Work Hours ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Us ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

The global pandemic, COVID-19, has exacerbated the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of the global economy since its outbreak in December 2019. One of the most affected economies, due to the global pandemic, is the US economy, currently crippled by an increased number of COVID-19 related deaths, layoffs, reduced work hours, and other related natural disasters, such as winter storms. Hence, it is imperative that the damage done to the GDP growth is evaluated meticulously to craft favorable monetary and fiscal policies to uplift economic performance. One of the key yet debated methods used by many economists is utilizing real GDP per capita as an economic performance measurement tool. Using two economic datasets and a multiple regression model, we compared real GDP per capita performance in the US economy between the second and third quarters of 2020. The study finds that the impact seems detrimental due to restrictions imposed on economic activities, such as business closures, disturbances in the supply chain, employee layoffs and reduced work hours. However, in the third quarter of 2020 COVID-19 after some of the COVID-19 imposed restrictions were lifted, the real GDP per capita significantly increased.

Measuring the Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanislav Ivanov ◽  
Craig Webster
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Equilibrium Models ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Models ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a methodology for measuring the contribution of tourism to an economy's growth, which is tested with data for Cyprus, Greece and Spain. The authors use the growth of real GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth and disaggregate it into economic growth generated by tourism and economic growth generated by other industries. The methodology is compared with other existing methodologies; namely, Tourism Satellite Account, Computable General Equilibrium models and econometric modelling of economic growth.

EXPORT-GROWTH NEXUS WHILE USING THE BLOCK EXOGENEITY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-46
Author(s):  
Zia Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
Bound Test

The core objective of the study is to analyze the association between export and eco-nomic growth under the consideration of the time frame 1967 to 2017 for Pakistan economy. The review of literature assists to find out the frequently utilize factors are the real GDP per capita, export, import, trade openness, fiscal development and capi-tal formation possible determinants of the economic growth. However, Export Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis is oftenly employed to elaborate the affiliation between ex-port and the growth. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to cointegration accompanied with the structural break and vector auto regressive (VAR) are employed to analysis the long-term association among real GDP per capita, ex-port, import, trade openness, fiscal development and capital formation. The empirical analysis confirms the cointegration among the factors and the ELG hypothesis holds in Pakistan economy. The Block Exogeneity reveals that export and the capital for-mation have strong influence to stimulate the economic growth. While all the other factors have cumulative influence on the growth. Moreover, the impulse response exposes that if the shock of real GDP per capita, import, trade openness, fiscal devel-opment and the capital formation are given to the export, then response of export would be positive in the coming time frame.

The Finnish Economy Through the Prism of the Theory of Long Waves

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 16-22
Author(s):  
Аверина ◽  
Tatyana Averina ◽  
Иванова ◽  
O. Ivanova
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Long Waves ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Third ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The article presents the research results of Kondratieff cycles in the economy of Finland on the basis of real GDP per capita over the period of 1860–2008 years. The using of economic and mathematical modeling has allowed estimating the power of long duration business cycles, revealing the chronological framework of long waves: the third, fourth and fifth. Kondratieff’s theory has served as a methodological basis for the study of processes: the emergence, the domination and the withering away of technological structures. Regression analysis has allowed establishing the productivity of different technological structures in the Finnish economy.

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