scholarly journals Modeling Robustness of COVID-19 Containment Policies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ross Hammond ◽  
Joseph T. Ornstein ◽  
Rob Purcell ◽  
Matthew D. Haslam ◽  
Matt Kasman
Keyword(s):  
Computational Model ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Face ◽  
Substantial Uncertainty

We report on results from the application of a new computational model designed to address challenges faced by policymakers in designing and implementing COVID-19 containment measures in the face of substantial uncertainty and heterogeneity.

scholarly journals Behavior Patterns, Energy Consumption and Comfort during COVID-19 Lockdown Related to Home Features, Socioeconomic Factors and Energy Poverty in Madrid

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5949
Author(s):  
Teresa Cuerdo-Vilches ◽  
Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín ◽  
Ignacio Oteiza
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Thermal Adaptation ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Energy Poverty ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Face ◽  
Future Harm

During spring 2020, the world was shocked at the imminent global spread of SARS-CoV-2, resorting to measures such as domestic confinement. This meant the reconfiguration of life in an unusual space; the home. However, not all households experienced it in the same way; many of them were vulnerable. A general increase in energy consumption and discomfort in many cases, led these families to suffer the ravages of confinement. This study analyzes the energy and comfort situation for the Madrid (Spain) population, according to the configuration of the homes, the characteristics of the dwellings, the vulnerability index by district, and energy poverty (measured with the 10% threshold of energy expenditure of home incomes). The results show a greater exposure, in confinement, of vulnerable and energy-poor households to scenarios of discomfort in the home, to which they could not respond, while energy consumption inevitably increased. Driven by need, energy-poor homes applied certain saving strategies, mainly resorting to thermal adaptation with clothing. This study shows the risk these households experienced in the face of an extreme situation, and invites reflection on preventive and containment measures that aim to avoid harming the disadvantaged in the future; harm that would also entail serious consequences on the health of their cohabitants.

scholarly journals Interactions Among mTORC, AMPK and SIRT A Computational Model for Cell Energy Balance and Metabolism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehrshad Sadria ◽  
Anita T. Layton
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Metabolic Stress ◽  
Cellular Aging ◽  
Signalling Pathways ◽  
Environmental Signals ◽  
Metabolic Signalling ◽  
The Face ◽  
Cell Energy ◽  
Salvage Pathways

Abstract BackgroundCells adapt their metabolism and activities in response to signals from their surroundings, and this ability is essential for their survival in the face of perturbations. In tissues a deficit of these mechanisms is commonly associated with cellular aging and diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, immune system decline, and neurological pathologies. Several proteins have been identified as being able to respond directly to energy, nutrient, and growth factor levels and stress stimuli in order to mediate adaptations in the cell. In particular, mTOR, AMPK, and sirtuins are known to play an essential role in the management of metabolic stress and energy balance in mammals.MethodsTo understand the complex interactions of these signalling pathways and environmental signals, and how those interactions may impact lifespan and health-span, we have developed a computational model of metabolic signalling pathways. Specifically, the model includes the insulin/IGF-1 pathway, which couples energy and nutrient abundance to the execution of cell growth and division, (ii) mTORC1 and the amino acid sensors such as sestrin, (iii) the Preiss-Handler and salvage pathways, which regulate the metabolism of NAD+ and the NAD+-consuming factor SIRT1, (iv) the energy sensor AMPK, and (v) transcription factors FOXO and PGC-1α.ResultsThe model simulates the interactions among key regulators such as Akt, mTORC1, AMPK, NAD+, and SIRT, and predicts their dynamics. Key findings include the clinically important role of PRAS40 and diet in mTORC1 inhibition, and a potential link between SIRT1-activating compounds and premature autophagy. Moreover, the model captures the exquisite interactions of leucine, sestrin2, and arginine, and the resulting signal to the mTORC1 pathway. These results can be leveraged in the development of novel treatment of cancers and other diseases.ConclusionsThis study presents a state-of-the-art computational model for investigating the interactions among signaling pathways and environmental stimuli in growth, ageing, metabolism, and diseases. The model can be used as an essential component to simulate gene manipulation, therapies (e.g., rapamycin and wortmannin), calorie restrictions, and chronic stress, and assess their functional implications on longevity and ageing‐related diseases.

scholarly journals Relaxing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Albi ◽  
Lorenzo Pareschi ◽  
Mattia Zanella
Keyword(s):  
Uncertain Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Difficult Problem ◽  
Feedback Controls ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Impact

After an initial phase characterized by the introduction of timely and drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments are preparing to relax such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a compartmental model with a social structure, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on the social activities that allow to assess the impact of a selective relaxation of the containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for all countries considered have been used. Results from different scenarios in some of the major countries where the epidemic is ongoing, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed.

Multi-scale Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis in Biological Systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
An Do Dela
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Type I Diabetes ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Type I ◽  
Stochastic Fluctuations ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
The Face

We develop a multi-method sensitivity framework, which incorporates two variance-based methods, namely Sobol's method, eFAST and Derivative-based global measures to identify which parameters are most influential to the model outputs. A new implementation version of eFAST, namely DeFAST, was developed to address some critical issues in an existing published algorithm. Sensitivity analysis is a powerful tool in the modeling process that can be leveraged in various ways including model reduction and model fitting to data. There are two novel models that have been developed in this work where sensitivity analysis was applied. A stochastic computational model was constructed to understand mechanistic division event in Caulobacter crecentus bacterium in order to investigate how precise measurements can be made at the micron scale in the face of stochastic fluctuations. In this context, sensitivity analysis is used to derive a minimal PDE model in a minimal intermittent-search framework that could capture key results of the computational model closely. In addition, a new single compartment mathematical model for type I diabetes was analyzed to understand which parameters are the main driver of the blood glucose dynamics with the intention to understand the curative potential of dendritic-cell-based vaccine therapies. In this case, the sensitivity analysis was used to rank parameters and reduce the parameter space so that we can calibrate the model with in-vivo data in the future. The novelty of this work is that we validate our sensitivity analysis approach on highly nonlinear and stochastic models. These complex models present significant challenges for the application of sensitivity analysis algorithms as compared to the simpler case-study models that are typically used for testing sensitivity analysis methods.

scholarly journals Impact of Learning in the COVID-19 Era on Academic Outcomes of Undergraduate Psychology Students

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 8735
Author(s):  
Juan Luis Martín Ayala ◽  
Sergio Castaño Castaño ◽  
Alba Hernández Santana ◽  
Mariacarla Martí González ◽  
Julién Brito Ballester
Keyword(s):  
Academic Performance ◽  
Online Education ◽  
Student Performance ◽  
Final Exam ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Online Mode ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Face

The COVID-19 pandemic, and the containment measures adopted by the different governments, led to a boom in online education as a necessary response to the crisis posed against the education system worldwide. This study compares the academic performance of students between face-to-face and online modalities in relation to the exceptional situation between the months of March and June 2020. The academic performance in both modalities of a series of subjects taught in the Psychology Degree at the European University of the Atlantic (Santander, Spain) was taken into account. The results show that student performance during the final exam in the online modality is significantly lower than in the face-to-face modality. However, grades from the continuous evaluation activities are significantly higher online, which somehow compensates the overall grade of the course, with no significant difference in the online mode with respect to the face-to-face mode, even though overall performance is higher in the latter. The conditioning factors and explanatory arguments for these results are also discussed.

scholarly journals The genesis of the second wave and the probable way forward for India

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 411-412
Author(s):  
Rajeev Aravindakshan ◽  
Siddharth Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
Developed Countries ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Preventive Strategies ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Face ◽  
Strict Enforcement ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Fear Mongering ◽  
June July ◽  
Second Wave

An unprecedented pandemic affecting 210 countries emerged in the watershed year of 2020 and involved India as well (1). We mined the number of daily cases of three equal periods of importance during the evolution of the pandemic in India, namely 1) initial lockdown (March-April 2020), 2) early days of unlocking (June-July 2020), and 3) second wave (March April 2021). Notice the March 2020 series in [Figure 1] and country-wise cases in [Figure 2], and we can observe that India was able to sustain itself against the first wave of the SARS Coronavirus-2 in a much better way compared to other developed countries. Social lockdown and other preventive strategies paid off even in the face of criticisms regarding lack of preparedness and economic slowdown due to strict enforcement of harsh measures. Soon, there were demands of decentralized control measures with more testing and local containment measures than the centrally dictated regimen. Lockdown was suggested for only local clusters with high positivity rather than a general clampdown (2). The June-July series in [Figure 1] represents the increasing numbers of cases resulting from suspicions, fear-mongering, and resultant relaxation in social restrictions as part of the phase-wise unlocking across the country.

scholarly journals Autocatalytic Model for Covid-19 Progression in a Country

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anatoly Chernyshev
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Kinetic Constants ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Linear Fitting ◽  
Autocatalytic Model ◽  
Containment Measures

AbstractHerewith we present a computational model for the forecasting of cumulative diagnosed cases of Covid-19 pneumonia within a country. The only explicit parameter of the model is the population density. The implicit parameter is a moving average ambient temperature, currently integrated into the kinetic constants. Other finer details pertaining to the mechanism of the pathogen SARS-CoV-2 spread within a given region are implicitly manifested in the exponent parameters derived from the non-linear fitting of the published data on Covid-19 occurrence. The performance of the model is demonstrated on a few selected countries, and on the Diamond Princess cruising ship outbreak. The model might be used as an aiding tool for the policy makers regarding the decisions on the containment measures and quarantine regime required.

scholarly journals Bergamo and Covid-19: How the Dark Can Turn to Light

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norberto Perico ◽  
Stefano Fagiuoli ◽  
Fabiano Di Marco ◽  
Andrea Laghi ◽  
Roberto Cosentini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Latin American ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Local Organization ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Face ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Second Wave

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, continues to spread rapidly. Here we discuss the dramatic situation created by COVID-19 in Italy, particularly in the province of Bergamo (the most severely affected in the first wave), as an example of how, in the face of an unprecedented tragedy, acting (albeit belatedly)—including imposing a very strict lockdown—can largely resolve the situation within approximately 2 months. The measures taken here ensured that Bergamo hospital, which was confronted with rapidly rising numbers of severely ill COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization, was able to meet the initial challenges of the pandemic. We also report that local organization and, more important, the large natural immunity against SARS-CoV-2 of the Bergamo population developed during the first wave of the epidemic, can explain the limited number of new COVID-19 cases during the more recent second wave compared to the numbers in other areas of Lombardy. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of coordinating the easing of containment measures to avoid what is currently observed in other countries, especially in the United States, Latin American and India, where this approach has not been adopted, and a dramatic resurgence of COVID-19 cases and an increase in the number of hospitalisations and deaths have been reported.

A computational model reveals that the face domain of macaque inferotemporal cortex (IT) represents multiple visual features

2011 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. e71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takashi Owaki ◽  
Michel Vidal-Naquet ◽  
Takayuki Sato ◽  
Hideyuki Cateau ◽  
Shimon Ullman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Computational Model ◽  
Visual Features ◽  
Inferotemporal Cortex ◽  
The Face

scholarly journals BERGAMO AND COVID-19: HOW THE DARK CAN TURN TO LIGHT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norberto Perico ◽  
Stefano Fagiuoli ◽  
Fabiano Di Marco ◽  
Andrea Laghi ◽  
Roberto Cosentini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Face ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Taking Action

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, continues to spread rapidly. Here we discuss the dramatic situation created by COVID-19 in Italy, particularly in the province of Bergamo (the most severely affected), as an example of how, in the face of an unprecedented tragedy, taking action (albeit belatedly) – including imposing a very strict lockdown – can largely resolve the situation within approximately two months. The measures taken here ensured that Bergamo hospital, which was confronted with rapidly rising numbers of very ill COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalisation, was able to meet the initial challenges of the pandemic. We also highlight the importance of coordinating the easing of containment measures to avoid what can currently be observed in other countries especially in Latin American and India, where this approach has not be adopted, and a dramatic resurgence of COVID-19 cases and an increase in the number of hospitalisations and deaths have been reported.

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