A Hard-Science Approach to Kondratieff’s Economic Cycle

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.31219/osf.io/t8a2x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

THEODORE MODIS

Keyword(s):

Energy Consumption ◽

Climatic Variation ◽

Sunspot Activity ◽

Bank Failures ◽

Economic Cycle ◽

Confidence Levels ◽

Hard Science ◽

Science Approach ◽

Physical Variables ◽

Scientific Standards

In an effort to evidence the Kondratieff cycle more scientifically than the way economists do, physical variables are studied rather than monetary indicators. Previously published graphs are reproduced and updated here with recent data. A cyclical rather regular variation of energy consumption reveals a 56-year cycle. A dozen human endeavors/phenomena, such as bank failures, homicides, hurricanes, feminism, and sunspot activity are shown to resonate with this cycle. Possible explanations for this phenomenon may have to do with a climatic variation or with the length of time any individual actively influences the environment. There is some evidence that the cycle may be getting shorter in amplitude and duration in recent years. All quantitative confidence levels involved in these observations are poor by scientific standards and permit critics to question the very existence of this phenomenon.

Download Full-text

A hard-science approach to Kondratieff's economic cycle

Technological Forecasting and Social Change ◽

10.1016/j.techfore.2017.04.015 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 122 ◽

pp. 63-70 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Theodore Modis

Keyword(s):

Economic Cycle ◽

Hard Science ◽

Science Approach

Download Full-text

Quantifying Fenestration Effect on Thermal Comfort in Naturally Ventilated Classrooms

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13137385 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (13) ◽

pp. 7385

Author(s):

Ibrahim Reda ◽

Raouf N. AbdelMessih ◽

Mohamed Steit ◽

Ehab M. Mina

Keyword(s):

Energy Consumption ◽

Thermal Comfort ◽

Ambient Temperature ◽

Temperature Difference ◽

Climatic Variation ◽

Zero Energy ◽

Mechanically Ventilated ◽

Sustainable Solutions ◽

Single Side

This study seeks to evaluate thermal comfort in naturally ventilated classrooms to draw sustainable solutions that reduce the dramatic energy consumed in mechanically ventilated spaces. Passive ventilation scenarios are generated using alternations of openings on the windward and leeward sides to evaluate their effects on thermal comfort. Twenty-eight experiments were carried in Bahrain during winter inside an exposed classroom, the experiments were grouped into five scenarios namely: “single-inlet single-outlet” SISO, “single-inlet double-outlet” SIDO, “double-inlet single-outlet” DISO, “double-inlet double-outlet” DIDO and “single-side ventilation” SSV. The findings indicate that single-side ventilation did not offer comfort except at high airspeed, while comfort is attained by using cross-ventilation at ambient temperature between 21.8–26.8 °C. The temperature difference between monitored locations and the inlet is inversely proportional to the number of air changes per hour. The DISO scenario accomplishes the lowest temperature difference. Using cross-ventilation instead of single-side ventilation reduces the temperature differences between 0.5–2.5 °C and increases airspeed up to three folds. According to the measured findings, the DISO cross-ventilation scenario is a valid sustainable solution adaptable to climatic variation locally and beyond with zero-energy consumption and zero emissions.

Download Full-text

Investigating the Effect of High-Rise Buildings’ Mass Geometry on Energy Efficiency within the Climatic Variation of Egypt

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su131910529 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 10529

Author(s):

Mohanad El-Agami ◽

Gehad Hanafy ◽

Medhat Osman

Keyword(s):

Energy Efficiency ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Simulation Software ◽

Climatic Variation ◽

Geometrical Shape ◽

Design Factor ◽

Climatic Regions ◽

High Rise ◽

The North

Energy conservation is recently the most important issue all over the world, including in Egypt. Recently, the built environment of Egypt has experienced a dramatic change in its buildings’ typology, with more interest in constructing high-rise buildings. This in turn creates high demand for energy, as high-rise buildings are considered to be one of the most energy-consuming types of buildings. Egypt has a wide variety in its climatic conditions, with seven different inhabited climatic regions, and a further one which is uninhabited. Therefore, integrating the energy efficiency of a building as a major design factor in the early design stages of such a type of buildings is important. This article is concerned with investigating the effect of high-rise buildings’ geometrical shape on the building’s energy consumption within the different climatic regions of Egypt. Four building shapes (square, circular, rectangular, and ellipse) are examined. The long axe of the models is oriented to the north (“the optimum orientation within all regions”), with a window-to-wall ratio (WWR) of 30%. The performance of these models is studied in seven cities representing the inhabited Egyptian climatic regions using simulation software, DesignBuilder, with the EnergyPlus simulation tool. Study findings revealed that adjusting the geometric form of the building significantly affects energy consumption and thermal comfort with climatic variation. The most compact shape, circular, was the most suitable geometrical shape in four regions out of seven. The ellipse shape was found to be the most suitable mass geometry within two other regions, while the square shape was found to be effective in only one region. The results of this research indicate that designers should not use the rectangular shape anywhere across Egypt.

Download Full-text

Speech-Language Pathologists' Perceptions of Their Preparation and Confidence for Providing Dysphagia Services

Perspectives of the ASHA Special Interest Groups ◽

10.1044/2020_persp-20-00115 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (6) ◽

pp. 1666-1682

Author(s):

Lena G. Caesar ◽

Merertu Kitila

Keyword(s):

Service Delivery ◽

Graduate School ◽

Online Survey ◽

The United States ◽

Academic Preparation ◽

Speech Language Pathologists ◽

Confidence Levels ◽

Graduate School Preparation ◽

Graduate Preparation ◽

Significant Relationships

Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the perceptions of speech-language pathologists (SLPs) regarding their academic preparation and current confidence levels for providing dysphagia services, and the relationship between their perceptions of graduate school preparation and their current levels of confidence. Method This study utilized an online survey to gather information from 374 American Speech-Language-Hearing Association–certified SLPs who currently provide dysphagia services in the United States. Surveys were primarily distributed through American Speech-Language-Hearing Association Special Interest Group forums and Facebook groups. The anonymous survey gathered information regarding SLPs' perceptions of academic preparation and current confidence levels for providing dysphagia services in 11 knowledge and skill areas. Results Findings indicated that more than half of respondents did not feel prepared following their graduate academic training in five of the 11 knowledge and skill areas related to dysphagia service delivery. However, about half of respondents indicated they were currently confident about their ability to provide services in eight of the 11 knowledge and skill areas. Findings also indicated that their current confidence levels to provide dysphagia services were significantly higher than their perceptions of preparation immediately following graduate school. However, no significant relationships were found between respondents' self-reported current confidence levels and their perceptions of the adequacy of their academic preparation. Conclusions Despite SLPs' low perceptions of the adequacy of their graduate preparation for providing dysphagia services in specific knowledge and skill areas immediately following graduation, they reported high confidence levels with respect to their actual service delivery. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Download Full-text