scholarly journals Decline of sea-ice in the Greenland Sea intensifies extreme precipitation over Svalbard

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malte Muller ◽  
Timo Kelder ◽  
Cyril Palerme
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Svalbard Archipelago ◽  
The North ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Precipitation Record

Extreme precipitation over the Svalbard Archipelago in the Arctic can have severe consequences for the ecosystem and society. In recent years several extreme precipitation events have been observed at Ny Ålesund, a weather station in the north-western part of the Svalbard Archipelago. The most recent observed events in the years 2012, 2016, and 2018 were the highest events in the entire precipitation record from 1974 till today. The key question of our study is whether those recently observed extremes are part of a climate change signal or are a random accumulation of extremes. With a novel approach based on a large ensemble of model simulations, we show that the likelihood of occurrence for extreme precipitation over Svalbard has increased over the last four decades. We find that the likelihood of occurrence is connected to the sea ice extent east of Greenland because the presence of sea ice shields the west coast of Svalbard from the incoming southerly moist air. Our analysis suggests, that in the future with a further decline of the sea ice coverage east of Greenland, the recently observed precipitation extremes will become even more frequent.

scholarly journals The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 969-982 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Berger ◽  
J. Brandefelt ◽  
J. Nilsson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Insolation Change

Abstract. In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) and phase 3 (PMIP3). The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11 % (21 %) smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3). In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992), the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch for surface waves. This is in broad agreement with recent analyses of sea-ice proxies, indicating that beach-ridges formed on the north-eastern coast of Greenland during the early- to mid-Holocene.

scholarly journals Satellite-observed variability and trend in sea-ice extent, surface temperature, albedo and clouds in the Arctic

2001 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 457-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josefino C. Comiso
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
North American Continent ◽  
The North ◽  
Ice Surface

AbstractRecent observations of a decreasing ice extent and a possible thinning of the ice cover in the Arctic make it imperative that detailed studies of the current Arctic environment are made, especially since the region is known to be highly sensitive to a potential change in climate. A continuous dataset of microwave, thermal infrared and visible satellite data has been analyzed for the first time to concurrently study in spatial detail the variability of the sea-ice cover, surface temperature, albedo and cloud statistics in the region from 1987 to 1998. Large warming anomalies during the last four years (i.e. 1995−98) are indeed apparent and spatially more extensive than previous years. The largest surface temperature anomaly occurred in 1998, but this was confined mainly to the western Arctic and the North American continent, while cooling occurred in other areas. The albedo anomalies show good coherence with the sea-ice concentration anomalies except in the central region, where periodic changes in albedo are observed, indicative of interannual changes in duration and areal extent of melt ponding and snow-free ice cover. The cloud-cover anomalies are more difficult to interpret, but are shown to be well correlated with the expected warming effects of clouds on the sea-ice surface. The results from trend analyses of the data are consistent with a general warming trend and an ice-cover retreat that appear to be even larger during the last dozen years than those previously reported.

scholarly journals Biomarker characterization of the North Water Polynya, Baffin Bay: Implications for local sea ice and temperature proxies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Harning ◽  
Brooke Holman ◽  
Lineke Woelders ◽  
Anne E. Jennings ◽  
Julio Sepúlveda
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Baffin Bay ◽  
The North ◽  
North Water Polynya ◽  
Lipid Biomarker ◽  
North Water ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract. The North Water Polynya (NOW, Greenlandic Inuit: Pikialasorsuaq), Baffin Bay, is the largest polynya and one of the most productive regions in the Arctic. This area of thin to absent sea ice is a critical moisture source for local ice sheet sustenance and coupled with the inflow of nutrient-rich Arctic Surface Water, supports a diverse community of Arctic fauna and indigenous people. Although paleoceanographic records can provide critical insight into the NOW’s past behavior, it is critical that we fully understand the modern functionality of the paleoceanographic proxies beforehand. In this study, we analyzed lipid biomarkers, including algal highly-branched isoprenoids and sterols for sea ice extent and pelagic productivity, and algal alkenones and archaeal GDGTs for ocean temperature, in a suite of modern surface sediment samples from within and around the NOW. Our data show that all highly-branched isoprenoids exhibit strong correlations with each other and show highest concentrations within the NOW, which suggests a spring/autumn sea ice diatom source rather than a combination of sea ice and open water diatoms as seen elsewhere in the Arctic. Sterols are also highly concentrated in the NOW and exhibit an order of magnitude higher concentration here compared to sites south of the NOW, consistent with the order of magnitude higher primary productivity observed within the NOW relative to surrounding waters in spring/summer months. Finally, our temperature calibrations for alkenones, GDGTs and OH-GDGTs reduce the uncertainty present in global temperature calibrations, but also identify some additional variables that may be important in controlling their local distribution, such as salinity, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen. Collectively, our datasets provide new insight into the utility of these lipid biomarker proxies in high-latitude settings and will help provide a refined perspective on the Holocene development of the NOW with their application in downcore reconstructions.

Monitoring and Assessing Arctic Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars-Otto Reiersen ◽  
Robert W. Corell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Arctic Climate Change ◽  
Global Systems

This overview of climate observation, monitoring, and research for the Arctic region outlines the key elements essential to an enhanced understanding of the unprecedented climate change in the region and its global influences. The first recorded observation of sea ice extent around Svalbard date back to the whaling activities around 1600. Over the following 300 years there are periodic and inadequate observations of climate and sea ice from explorers seeking a northern sea route for sailing to Asia or reaching the North Pole. Around 1900 there were few fixed meteorological stations in the circumpolar North. During the Second World War and the following Cold War, the observation network increased significantly due to military interest. Since the 1970s the use of satellites has improved the climate and meteorological observations of Arctic areas, and advancements in marine observations (beneath the sea surface and within oceanic sediments) have contributed to a much improved network of climate and meteorological variables. Climate change in the Arctic and its possible effects within the Arctic and on global climate such as extreme weather and sea level rise were first reported in the ACIA 2005 report. Since then there has been a lot of climate-related assessments based on data from the Arctic and ongoing processes within the Arctic that are linked to global systems.

scholarly journals Mapping pan-Arctic landfast sea ice stability using Sentinel-1 interferometry

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 557-577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dyre O. Dammann ◽  
Leif E. B. Eriksson ◽  
Andrew R. Mahoney ◽  
Hajo Eicken ◽  
Franz J. Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Marginal Seas ◽  
Nares Strait ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Landfast Ice ◽  
Landfast Sea Ice ◽  
Fringe Patterns ◽  
The Stability

Abstract. Arctic landfast sea ice has undergone substantial changes in recent decades, affecting ice stability and including potential impacts on ice travel by coastal populations and on industry ice roads. We present a novel approach for evaluating landfast sea ice stability on a pan-Arctic scale using Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR). Using Sentinel-1 images from spring 2017, we discriminate between bottomfast, stabilized, and nonstabilized landfast ice over the main marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean (Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara seas). This approach draws on the evaluation of relative changes in interferometric fringe patterns. This first comprehensive assessment of Arctic bottomfast sea ice extent has revealed that most of the bottomfast sea ice is situated around river mouths and coastal shallows. The Laptev and East Siberian seas dominate the aerial extent, covering roughly 4100 and 5100 km2, respectively. These seas also contain the largest extent of stabilized and nonstabilized landfast ice, but are subject to the largest uncertainties surrounding the mapping scheme. Even so, we demonstrate the potential for using InSAR for assessing the stability of landfast ice in several key regions around the Arctic, providing a new understanding of how stability may vary between regions. InSAR-derived stability may serve for strategic planning and tactical decision support for different uses of coastal ice. In a case study of the Nares Strait, we demonstrate that interferograms may reveal early-warning signals for the breakup of stationary sea ice.

scholarly journals Using Arctic ice mass balance buoys for evaluation of modelled ice energy fluxes

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex West ◽  
Mat Collins ◽  
Ed Blockley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
Energy Evaluation ◽  
Ice Mass Balance ◽  
Arctic Ice

Abstract. Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over recent decades. Models predict that the Arctic will be nearly ice-free by mid-century, but the spread in predictions of sea ice extent is currently large. The reasons for this spread are poorly understood, partly due to a lack of observations with which the processes by which Arctic atmospheric and oceanic forcing affect sea ice state can be examined. In this study, a method of estimating fluxes of top melt, top conduction, basal conduction and ocean heat flux from Arctic ice mass balance buoy elevation and temperature data is presented. The derived fluxes are used to evaluate modelled fluxes from the coupled climate model HadGEM2-ES in two densely sampled regions of the Arctic, the North Pole and Beaufort Sea. The evaluation shows the model to overestimate the magnitude of summer top melting fluxes, and winter conductive fluxes, results which are physically consistent with an independent sea ice and surface energy evaluation of the same model.

scholarly journals Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao-Yuan Yang ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Yongyun Hu ◽  
Radley M. Horton ◽  
Liqi Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 CMIP5 models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations. For the models having large biases and using full-field initialization, the predicted sea ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint, deteriorating the decadal predictive skill. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the north Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the north Atlantic (particularly at a lead-time of 3–7 years), but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the north Atlantic at a lead-time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any time scales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead-time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the MMEE outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer time scales, which is not the case for the Antarctic.

scholarly journals Influence of sea ice on Arctic precipitation

2015 ◽  
Vol 113 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben G. Kopec ◽  
Xiahong Feng ◽  
Fred A. Michel ◽  
Eric S. Posmentier
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Hydrologic Cycle ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Meridional Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Vapor Source ◽  
The North ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Global climate is influenced by the Arctic hydrologic cycle, which is, in part, regulated by sea ice through its control on evaporation and precipitation. However, the quantitative link between precipitation and sea ice extent is poorly constrained. Here we present observational evidence for the response of precipitation to sea ice reduction and assess the sensitivity of the response. Changes in the proportion of moisture sourced from the Arctic with sea ice change in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland Sea regions over the past two decades are inferred from annually averaged deuterium excess (d-excess) measurements from six sites. Other influences on the Arctic hydrologic cycle, such as the strength of meridional transport, are assessed using the North Atlantic Oscillation index. We find that the independent, direct effect of sea ice on the increase of the percentage of Arctic sourced moisture (or Arctic moisture proportion, AMP) is 18.2 ± 4.6% and 10.8 ± 3.6%/100,000 km2 sea ice lost for each region, respectively, corresponding to increases of 10.9 ± 2.8% and 2.7 ± 1.1%/1 °C of warming in the vapor source regions. The moisture source changes likely result in increases of precipitation and changes in energy balance, creating significant uncertainty for climate predictions.

scholarly journals The observed recent surface air temperature development across Svalbard and concurring footprints in local sea ice cover

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandro Dahlke ◽  
Nicholas Hughes ◽  
Penelope Wagner ◽  
Sebastian Gerland ◽  
Tomasz Wawrzyniak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The West ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Local Society ◽  
Svalbard Archipelago ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions

<p>The Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic North Atlantic is experiencing rapid changes in the surface climate and sea ice distribution, with impacts for the coupled climate system and the local society. Using observational data of surface air temperature (SAT) from 1980–2016 across the whole Svalbard archipelago, and sea ice extent (SIE) from operational sea ice charts,  a systematic assessment of climatologies, long-term changes and regional differences is conducted. The proximity to the warm water mass of the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) drives a markedly warmer climate in the western coastal regions compared to northern and eastern Svalbard. This imprints on the SIE climatology in southern and western Svalbard, where the annual maxima of 50–60% area ice coverage are substantially less than 80–90% in the northern and eastern fjords. Owing to winter-amplified warming, the local climate is shifting towards more maritime conditions, and SIE reductions of between 5% to 20% per decade in particular regions are found, such that a number of fjords in the west have been virtually ice-free in recent winters. The strongest decline comes along with SAT forcing and occurs over the most recent 1–2 decades in all regions. In the 1980s and 1990s, enhanced northerly winds and sea ice drift can explain 30–50% of SIE variability around northern Svalbard, where they had correspondingly lead to a SIE increase. At the same time, interannual temperature fluctuations within the WSC waters can explain 20-37% of SIE variability in a number of fjords on the west coast. With an ongoing warming it is suggested that both the meteorological and cryospheric conditions in eastern Svalbard will become increasingly similar to what is already observed in the western fjords, namely suppressed typical Arctic climate conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2429-2452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao-Yuan Yang ◽  
Jiping Liu ◽  
Yongyun Hu ◽  
Radley M. Horton ◽  
Liqi Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3–7 years), but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

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