Influence of sea ice on Arctic precipitation

Global climate is influenced by the Arctic hydrologic cycle, which is, in part, regulated by sea ice through its control on evaporation and precipitation. However, the quantitative link between precipitation and sea ice extent is poorly constrained. Here we present observational evidence for the response of precipitation to sea ice reduction and assess the sensitivity of the response. Changes in the proportion of moisture sourced from the Arctic with sea ice change in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland Sea regions over the past two decades are inferred from annually averaged deuterium excess (d-excess) measurements from six sites. Other influences on the Arctic hydrologic cycle, such as the strength of meridional transport, are assessed using the North Atlantic Oscillation index. We find that the independent, direct effect of sea ice on the increase of the percentage of Arctic sourced moisture (or Arctic moisture proportion, AMP) is 18.2 ± 4.6% and 10.8 ± 3.6%/100,000 km2 sea ice lost for each region, respectively, corresponding to increases of 10.9 ± 2.8% and 2.7 ± 1.1%/1 °C of warming in the vapor source regions. The moisture source changes likely result in increases of precipitation and changes in energy balance, creating significant uncertainty for climate predictions.

Download Full-text

Monitoring and Assessing Arctic Climate Change

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science ◽

10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.659 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Lars-Otto Reiersen ◽

Robert W. Corell

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Global Climate ◽

Arctic Region ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

The North ◽

Meteorological Observations ◽

Arctic Climate Change ◽

Global Systems

This overview of climate observation, monitoring, and research for the Arctic region outlines the key elements essential to an enhanced understanding of the unprecedented climate change in the region and its global influences. The first recorded observation of sea ice extent around Svalbard date back to the whaling activities around 1600. Over the following 300 years there are periodic and inadequate observations of climate and sea ice from explorers seeking a northern sea route for sailing to Asia or reaching the North Pole. Around 1900 there were few fixed meteorological stations in the circumpolar North. During the Second World War and the following Cold War, the observation network increased significantly due to military interest. Since the 1970s the use of satellites has improved the climate and meteorological observations of Arctic areas, and advancements in marine observations (beneath the sea surface and within oceanic sediments) have contributed to a much improved network of climate and meteorological variables. Climate change in the Arctic and its possible effects within the Arctic and on global climate such as extreme weather and sea level rise were first reported in the ACIA 2005 report. Since then there has been a lot of climate-related assessments based on data from the Arctic and ongoing processes within the Arctic that are linked to global systems.

Download Full-text

Halogenated Greenhouse Gases Made Global Warming Primarily

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1230021/v1 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Qing-Bin Lu

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Land Surface ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Theoretical Calculations ◽

Global Climate ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Snow Cover Extent

Abstract Time-series observations of global lower stratospheric temperature (GLST), global land surface air temperature (LSAT), global mean surface temperature (GMST), sea ice extent (SIE) and snow cover extent (SCE), together with observations reported in Paper I, combined with theoretical calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs, have provided strong evidence that ozone depletion and global climate changes are dominantly caused by human-made halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) respectively. Both GLST and SCE have become constant since the mid-1990s and GMST/LSAT has reached a peak since the mid-2000s, while regional continued warmings at the Arctic coasts (particularly Russia and Alaska) in winter and spring and at some areas of Antarctica are observed and can be well explained by a sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism. The calculated GMSTs by the parameter-free warming theory of halogenated GHGs show an excellent agreement with the observed GMSTs after the natural El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic effects are removed. These results provide a convincing mechanism of global climate change and will make profound changes in our understanding of atmospheric processes. This study also emphasizes the critical importance of continued international efforts in phasing out all anthropogenic halogenated ODSs and GHGs.

Download Full-text

Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-8-1383-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 1383-1406 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

P. J. Hezel ◽

T. Fichefet ◽

F. Massonnet

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Abstract. Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a~subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all 9 models. RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline due to continued warming on longer time scales. These two scenarios imply that summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in 7 of 9 models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent.

Download Full-text

Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes due to winter sea-ice retreat on Black Carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

10.5194/acp-2016-1007 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Luca Pozzoli ◽

Srdan Dobricic ◽

Simone Russo ◽

Elisabetta Vignati

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

The Arctic ◽

The North ◽

Ice Retreat ◽

The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽

Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Winter warming and sea ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades determine changes of large scale atmospheric circulation pattern that may impact as well the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a new statistical algorithm, based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large scale weather patterns (the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian Blocking, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation), associated with winter increasing temperatures and sea ice retreat in the Arctic, impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that the three atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the Eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the Western Arctic. The increasing trend is mainly due to the more frequent occurrences of stable high pressure systems (atmospheric blocking) near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a smaller impact on BC deposition in the Arctic, but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation does not influence significantly the transport and deposition of BC to the Arctic. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

Download Full-text

The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-9-969-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 969-982 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

M. Berger ◽

J. Brandefelt ◽

J. Nilsson

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Eastern Coast ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

The North ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

North Eastern ◽

Intercomparison Project ◽

Insolation Change

Abstract. In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) and phase 3 (PMIP3). The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11 % (21 %) smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3). In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992), the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch for surface waves. This is in broad agreement with recent analyses of sea-ice proxies, indicating that beach-ridges formed on the north-eastern coast of Greenland during the early- to mid-Holocene.

Download Full-text

Satellite-observed variability and trend in sea-ice extent, surface temperature, albedo and clouds in the Arctic

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756401781818617 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 33 ◽

pp. 457-473 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Josefino C. Comiso

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Warming Trend ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Concentration ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

North American Continent ◽

The North ◽

Ice Surface

AbstractRecent observations of a decreasing ice extent and a possible thinning of the ice cover in the Arctic make it imperative that detailed studies of the current Arctic environment are made, especially since the region is known to be highly sensitive to a potential change in climate. A continuous dataset of microwave, thermal infrared and visible satellite data has been analyzed for the first time to concurrently study in spatial detail the variability of the sea-ice cover, surface temperature, albedo and cloud statistics in the region from 1987 to 1998. Large warming anomalies during the last four years (i.e. 1995−98) are indeed apparent and spatially more extensive than previous years. The largest surface temperature anomaly occurred in 1998, but this was confined mainly to the western Arctic and the North American continent, while cooling occurred in other areas. The albedo anomalies show good coherence with the sea-ice concentration anomalies except in the central region, where periodic changes in albedo are observed, indicative of interannual changes in duration and areal extent of melt ponding and snow-free ice cover. The cloud-cover anomalies are more difficult to interpret, but are shown to be well correlated with the expected warming effects of clouds on the sea-ice surface. The results from trend analyses of the data are consistent with a general warming trend and an ice-cover retreat that appear to be even larger during the last dozen years than those previously reported.

Download Full-text

September Arctic Sea Ice minimum prediction – a new skillful statistical approach

10.5194/esd-2018-61 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Monica Ionita ◽

Klaus Grosfeld ◽

Patrick Scholz ◽

Renate Treffeisen ◽

Gerrit Lohmann

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Statistical Model ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Important Indicator ◽

Predictive Skill

Abstract. Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and long term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends on various atmospheric and oceanic parameters. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal of sea ice evolution, we developed a robust statistical model based on oceanic and different atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September sea ice extent (SSIE) on monthly time scale. Although previous statistical attempts of monthly/seasonal SSIE forecasts show a relatively reduced skill, when the trend is removed, we show here that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the SSIE and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

Download Full-text

Hemispheric sea ice extent dynamics as observed from MSMR

MAUSAM ◽

10.54302/mausam.v60i3.1101 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 60 (3) ◽

pp. 295-308

Author(s):

NILAY SHARMA ◽

M. K. DASH ◽

P. C. PANDEY ◽

N. K. VYAS

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Global Climate ◽

Ice Cover ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ice Formation ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Year 2000 ◽

Formation Phase

The ice covered regions of the polar seas influence the global climate in several ways. Any perturbation in the polar oceanic cryosphere affects the local weather and the global climate through modulation of the radiative forcing, the bottom water formation and the mass & the momentum transfer between Atmosphere-Cryosphere-Ocean System. The cold, harsh and inhospitable conditions in the polar regions prohibit the collection of extensive in situ data with sufficient spatial and temporal variation. However, satellite remote sensing is an ideal technique for studying the areas like the polar regions with synoptic and repetitive coverage. This paper discusses the analysis of the data obtained over the polar oceanic regions during the period June 1999 – September 2001 through the use of Multi-channel Scanning Microwave Radiometer (MSMR), onboard India’s first oceanographic satellite Oceansat-1. The MSMR observation shows that all the sectors in the Antarctic behave differently to the melting and formation of the sea ice. Certain peculiar features like the increase in sea ice extent during the melt season of 1999 – 2000 in the Indian Ocean sector, 15 – 20% decrease in the sea ice extent in the western Pacific sector during the ice formation period for the year 2000, melting spell within the formation phase of sea ice in B & A sector in the year 2000 were observed. On the other hand the northern polar sea ice extent is seen to be more dominated by the land characteristics. The ice formation in Kara and the Barent Sea sector is dominated by the ocean currents, where as the ice covered in the Japan and the Okhotsk Sea is dominated by the land processes. The sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean show fluctuations from July to October and remain almost steady over other months. The global sea ice cover shows a formation phase from March to June and melting phase from November to February. In other months, i.e., from July – October the global sea ice cover is dominated by the hemispheric asymmetry of the ice growth and retreat.

Download Full-text

Biomarker characterization of the North Water Polynya, Baffin Bay: Implications for local sea ice and temperature proxies

10.5194/bg-2021-177 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

David J. Harning ◽

Brooke Holman ◽

Lineke Woelders ◽

Anne E. Jennings ◽

Julio Sepúlveda

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Baffin Bay ◽

The North ◽

North Water Polynya ◽

Lipid Biomarker ◽

North Water ◽

Order Of Magnitude ◽

Insight Into

Abstract. The North Water Polynya (NOW, Greenlandic Inuit: Pikialasorsuaq), Baffin Bay, is the largest polynya and one of the most productive regions in the Arctic. This area of thin to absent sea ice is a critical moisture source for local ice sheet sustenance and coupled with the inflow of nutrient-rich Arctic Surface Water, supports a diverse community of Arctic fauna and indigenous people. Although paleoceanographic records can provide critical insight into the NOW’s past behavior, it is critical that we fully understand the modern functionality of the paleoceanographic proxies beforehand. In this study, we analyzed lipid biomarkers, including algal highly-branched isoprenoids and sterols for sea ice extent and pelagic productivity, and algal alkenones and archaeal GDGTs for ocean temperature, in a suite of modern surface sediment samples from within and around the NOW. Our data show that all highly-branched isoprenoids exhibit strong correlations with each other and show highest concentrations within the NOW, which suggests a spring/autumn sea ice diatom source rather than a combination of sea ice and open water diatoms as seen elsewhere in the Arctic. Sterols are also highly concentrated in the NOW and exhibit an order of magnitude higher concentration here compared to sites south of the NOW, consistent with the order of magnitude higher primary productivity observed within the NOW relative to surrounding waters in spring/summer months. Finally, our temperature calibrations for alkenones, GDGTs and OH-GDGTs reduce the uncertainty present in global temperature calibrations, but also identify some additional variables that may be important in controlling their local distribution, such as salinity, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen. Collectively, our datasets provide new insight into the utility of these lipid biomarker proxies in high-latitude settings and will help provide a refined perspective on the Holocene development of the NOW with their application in downcore reconstructions.

Download Full-text

Sea Ice in the Greenland Polynya in 2018 - A Study with CryoSat-2 and SMOS

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5495 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Weixin Zhu ◽

Lu Zhou ◽

Shiming Xu

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Global Climate ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Climate System ◽

The Arctic ◽

Ice Thickness ◽

Sea Ice Thickness ◽

The North ◽

Ice Surface ◽

Snow Conditions

AbstractArctic sea ice is a critical component in the global climate system. It affects the climate system by radiating incident heat back into space and regulating ocean-atmosphere heat and momentum. Satellite altimetry such as CryoSat-2 serves as the primary approach for observing sea ice thickness. Nevertheless, the thickness retrieval with CryoSat-2 mainly depends on the height of the ice surface above the sea level, which leads to significant uncertainties over thin ice regimes. The sea ice at the north of Greenland is considered one of the oldest and thickest in the Arctic. However, during late February - early March 2018, a polynya formed north to Greenland due to extra strong southern winds. We focus on the retrieval of sea ice thickness and snow conditions with CryoSat-2 and SMOS during the formation of the polynya. Specifically, we investigate the uncertainty of CryoSat-2 and carry out inter- comparison of sea ice thickness retrieval with SMOS and CryoSat-2/SMOS synergy. Besides, further discussion of retrieval with CryoSat-2 is provided for such scenarios where the m&#233;lange of thick ice and newly formed thin ice is present.

Download Full-text