scholarly journals Numerical Investigation of Storm Surge in Kong Port in the Persian Gulf

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Hossein Mahdavi ◽  
Hamid Ansari Sharghi
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Mean Sea Level

Storm surge is generated by the integration of waves, tide and wind setup that is resulted in unwanted mean sea level rise and coastal flooding. The estimation of accurate storm surge is essential for the engineering design of coastal structures. In this study, we estimated the respond of mean sea level winds, tide, waves, and sea-level rise using a local coastal model. A fully coupled hydrodynamic and wave model was implemented to obtain storm surge from different phenomena. The simulations of water level fluctuations due to these parameters were analyzed with the wind forces identified with tidal observations in the Port of Kong. Extreme value analysis was performed to determine the fluctuations associated with different return periods. These data were combined by sea-level rise projections are combined with resulted value. The worst and best scenario of storm surges for each return period were determined for engineering design purposes.

scholarly journals Determining Extreme Still Water Levels for Design and Planning Purposes Incorporating Sea Level Rise: Sydney, Australia

Atmosphere ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Phil J. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.

Coastal flooding in the Balearic Islands during the 21st century caused by sea level rise and extreme events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pau Luque Lozano ◽  
Lluís Gómez-Pujol ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Alejandro Orfila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Mean Sea Level

<p>Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. The eventual coastline retreat combined with the action of waves and storm surges will end in more severe damages over coastal areas. These effects are expected to be particularly significant over islands, where coastal zones represent a relatively larger area vulnerable to marine hazards.</p><p>Managing coastal flood risk at regional scales requires a prioritization of resources and socioeconomic activities along the coast. Stakeholders, such as regional authorities, coastal managers and private companies, need tools that help to address the evaluation of coastal risks and criteria to support decision-makers to clarify priorities and critical sites. For this reason, the regional Government of the Balearic Islands (Spain) in association with the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment has launched the Plan for Climate Change Coastal Adaptation. This framework integrates two levels of analysis. The first one relates with the identification of critical areas affected by coastal flooding and erosion under mean sea-level rise scenarios and the quantification of the extent of flooding, including marine extreme events. The second level assesses the impacts on infrastructures and assets from a socioeconomic perspective due to these hazards.</p><p>In this context, this paper quantifies the effects of sea-level rise and marine extreme events caused by storm surges and waves along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) in terms of coastal flooding and potential erosion. Given the regional scale (~1500 km) of this study, the presented methodology adopts a compromise between accuracy, physical representativity and computational costs. We map the projected flooded coastal areas under two mean sea-level rise climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To do so, we apply a corrected bathtub algorithm. Additionally, we compute the impact of extreme storm surges and waves using two 35-year hindcasts consistently forced by mean sea level pressure and surface winds from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Waves have been further propagated towards the nearshore to compute wave setup with higher accuracy. The 100-year return levels of joint storm surges and waves are used to map the spatial extent of flooding in more than 200 sandy beaches around the Balearic Islands by mid and late 21st century, using the hydrodynamical LISFLOOD-FP model and a high resolution (2 m) Digital Elevation Model.</p>

scholarly journals Coastal Floods Induced by Mean Sea Level Rise—Ecological and Socioeconomic Impacts on a Mesotidal Lagoon

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1430
Author(s):  
Francisco Silveira ◽  
Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽  
João Pedro Pinheiro ◽  
Humberto Pereira ◽  
João Miguel Dias
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Ria De Aveiro ◽  
The Future ◽  
Coastal Floods ◽  
Agricultural Areas

Coastal floods are currently a strong threat to socioeconomic activities established on the margins of lagoons and estuaries, as well as to their ecological equilibrium, a situation that is expected to become even more worrying in the future in a climate change context. The Ria de Aveiro lagoon, located on the northwest coast of Portugal, is not an exception to these threats, especially considering the low topography of its margins which has led to several flood events in the past. The growing concerns with these regions stem from the mean sea level (MSL) rise induced by climate changes as well as the amplification of the impacts of storm surge events, which are predicted to increase in the future due to higher mean sea levels. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the influence of MSL rise on the inundation of Ria de Aveiro habitats and to assess the changes in inundation patterns resulting from frequent storm surges (2-year return period) from the present to the future, assessing their ecological and socioeconomic impacts. For this, a numerical model (Delft3D), previously calibrated and validated, was used to simulate the lagoon hydrodynamics under different scenarios combining MSL rise and frequent storm surge events. The numerical results demonstrated that MSL rise can change the vertical zonation and threaten the local habitats. Many areas of the lagoon may change from supratidal/intertidal to intertidal/subtidal, with relevant consequences for local species. The increase in MSL expected for the end of the century could make the lagoon more vulnerable to the effect of frequent storm surges, harming mostly agricultural areas, causing great losses for this sector and for many communities who depend on it. These extreme events can also affect artificialized areas and, in some cases, endanger lives.

Impacts of mean sea-level rise and marine extremes on islands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Angel Amores
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Impacts ◽  
Extreme Hazards ◽  
And Migration

<p>For how long low-elevation coastal areas will be habitable under the effects of mean sea-level rise and marine extreme hazards? Mean sea-level rise, despite having a global origin, has severe local coastal impacts, as it raises the baseline level on top of which extreme storm surges and wind-waves reach the coastlines and, consequently, increases coastal exposure. In this presentation we will show coastal modelling exercises, fed with regionalised climate information of mean sea level and marine extremes, and applied in different environments that include sandy beaches and atoll islands. The outputs are aimed at anticipating the potential impacts of the dominant drivers in terms of land loss, coastal flooding and erosion. Our examples will be focusing on islands, for which the effects of increased coastal exposure are relatively larger, where local economy is often linked to coastal activities and retreat and migration are hampered by the limited land availability.</p>

scholarly journals Coastal Flooding in the Balearic Islands During the Twenty-First Century Caused by Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pau Luque ◽  
Lluís Gómez-Pujol ◽  
Marta Marcos ◽  
Alejandro Orfila
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Sandy Beaches ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
First Century ◽  
Shoreline Retreat ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Recreational Services

Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. Potential coastline retreat combined with waves and storm surges will result in more severe damages for coastal zones, especially over insular systems. In this paper, we quantify the effects of sea-level rise in terms of potential coastal flooding and potential beach erosion, along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea), during the twenty-first century. We map projected flooded areas under two climate-change-driven mean sea-level rise scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), together with the impact of an extreme event defined by the 100-year return level of joint storm surges and waves. We quantify shoreline retreat of sandy beaches forced by the sea-level rise (scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and the continuous action of storm surges and waves (modeled by synthetic time series). We estimate touristic recreational services decrease of sandy beaches caused by the obtained shoreline retreat, in monetary terms. According to our calculations, permanent flooding by the end of our century will extend 7.8–27.7 km2 under the RCP4.5 scenario (mean sea-level rise between 32 and 80 cm by 2100), and up to 10.9–36.5 km2 under RCP8.5 (mean sea-level rise between 46 and 103 cm by 2100). Some beaches will lose more than 50% of their surface by the end of the century: 20–50% of them under RCP4.5 scenario and 25–60% under RCP8.5 one. Loss of touristic recreational services could represent a gross domestic product (GDP) loss up to 7.2% with respect to the 2019 GDP.

scholarly journals Projecting the Effects of Land Subsidence and Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge Flooding in Coastal North Carolina

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Johnston ◽  
Felicio Cassalho ◽  
Tyler Miesse ◽  
Celso Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Relative Rate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
The United States

Abstract Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to subside due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to a larger relative rate of SLR regionwide. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to simulate storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Simulations of recent Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Matthew (2016) are performed considering SLR projections and land subsidence estimates for the year 2100. The model is validated against historic water level observations with generally strong agreement (mean R2 0.81, RMSE 10–31 cm). At current rates of subsidence, storm surge susceptible regions increase on the order of 30–40% by 2100 relative to near-present day conditions. Flood water redistribution leaves low-lying areas especially vulnerable, as many of which also experience increased land subsidence. Combined with SLR projections, results project more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Hurricane Irene from ~ 2,000 km2 (2011) to 5,000 km2 (2100, subsidence + 74 cm), and more than a 3-fold increase ~ 1,400 km2 (2016) to 4,900 km2 (2100, subsidence + 74 cm) for Hurricane Matthew. The expected inundation increases have substantial implications for communities and ecosystems located in coastal North Carolina.

Coastal flooding protection will change salt-marsh sedimentation dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Tognin ◽  
Andrea D'Alpaos ◽  
Marco Marani ◽  
Luca Carniello
Keyword(s):  
Salt Marsh ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Sedimentation Rate ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sedimentation Dynamics

<p>Coastal wetlands lie at the interface between submerged and emerged environments and therefore represent unique yet delicate ecosystems. Their existence, resulting from complex interactions between hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics, is challenged by increasing rates of sea-level rise, lowered fluvial sediment input as well as an increasing anthropogenic pressure. The future survival of these peculiar morphologies is becoming even more complicated, because of the construction and planning of coastal defence structures designed to protect urban areas from flooding. Important examples are the flood protection systems built to protect New Orleans (USA), the river Scheldt Estuary (The Netherlands) and Venice (Italy). In this context, understanding the physical processes on which coastal marshes are grounded and how engineering measures can alter them is of extreme importance in order to plan conservation interventions.</p><p>To understand marsh sedimentation dynamics in flood-regulated environments, we investigated through field observations and modelling the effect of the storm-surge barrier designed to protect the city of Venice, the so-called Mo.S.E. system, which has in fact become operational since October 2020.</p><p>Sedimentation measurements in different salt marshes of the Venice lagoon carried out in the period October 2018-October 2020 show that more than 70% of yearly sedimentation accumulates during storm-surge conditions, despite their short duration. Moreover, the sedimentation rate displays a highly non-linear increase with marsh inundation intensity, due to the interplay between higher water levels and greater suspended sediment concentration. Barrier operations during storm surges to avoid flooding of urban areas will reduce water levels and marsh inundation. Therefore, we computed sedimentation in a flood-regulated scenario for the same observation period, using the relation we obtained between tidal forcing and sedimentation rate. Our results show that some occasional closures during intense storm surges (70 hours/year on average) suffice to reduce the yearly sedimentation of the same order of magnitude of the relative sea-level rise rate experienced by the Venice lagoon during the last century (2.5 mm/y).</p><p>We conclude that storm-surge barrier operations can dangerously reduce salt-marsh vertical accretion rate, thus challenging wetland survival in face of increasing sea-level rise.</p>

Extreme Coastal Inundation Under Different Climate Scenarios: Fourchon Junction Case Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Octavio Sequeiros ◽  
Sergio Jaramillo
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Wave Crest ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Barrier Beach ◽  
Value Analysis

Abstract Port Fourchon Junction is located within Chevron's Fourchon Terminal, just south of Port Fourchon and is operated by Shell Pipeline Company LP. This manifold metering station is a critical junction for the Mars Corridor oil, as oil production from Mars (MC-807), Ursa (MC-809), Titan (MC-941), Who Dat (MC-547), Medusa (MC-582), and Olympus (MC-807B) flows through this station via a 24" pipeline. Port Fourchon is at the edge of the Mississippi delta facing the sea, one of the world's most vulnerable low-elevation coastal zones. It is highly exposed to storm surge and wave-induced inundation under hurricanes which regularly visit the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, it experiences one of the largest rates of subsidence in the world, which combined with sea level rise, will increase the site vulnerability in the coming decades. This study assesses present and future scenarios of subsidence and sea level rise under extreme metocean conditions induced by hurricanes and their impact on Port Fourchon Junction. Local effects such as the differential settlement of the barrier beach have been also considered. Using results from the numerical model XBeach, a set of different present and future scenarios are modelled under extreme metocean conditions. These conditions and the subsequent design parameters calculated, are not obtained through traditional extreme value analysis methods, instead, they are estimated through the influence of boundary conditions forced with the corresponding return period values of the parameters. Boundary conditions for the simulations are extracted from Grand Isle and Port Fourchon sea level observations, and from FEMA and the Water Institute of the Gulf simulations. Port Fourchon site should be subject to flooding for 10-year return period conditions based on Grand Isle observations. For 5-6 years return period conditions some degree of milder partial flood should also be expected. This is well captured by the model. While the highest inundating level is mostly dependent on winds, waves and surge acting together, surge is the single most critical parameter that defines the asset's base inundation level. Design future conditions based on surge extreme from FEMA simulations are recommended over surge extremes derived from Grand Isle observations. The barrier beach and the breakwaters play a key factor in sheltering site from waves and surge. Even when submerged under extreme high return period conditions they dissipate the waves ensuring that the maximum water level (wave crest elevation) on site is lower than would otherwise be without them. It is then important to maintain them fit for purpose during the entire lifespan of the asset. Both Grand Isle and Port Fourchon subsidence scenarios yield similar results. Based on the importance of Port Fourchon Junction facilities, the design criteria obtained, and the higher subsidence level observed at Port Fourchon (compared to Grand Isle), it is recommended that a 1000-year return period and future scenario based on FEMA surge level and Port Fourchon Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) is adopted for design. The subsidence associated to this scenario is 9.8 mm/year. The sea level rise associated to this scenario is 2 mm/year.

scholarly journals The Effect of Stochasticity of Waves on Coastal Flood and Its Variations with Sea-level Rise

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 798
Author(s):  
Déborah Idier ◽  
Rodrigo Pedreros ◽  
Jérémy Rohmer ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Short Time Scale ◽  
Main Process ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Wave Overtopping ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Short Time

Coastal floods are driven by many hydro-meteorological forcing factors, among which are mean sea levels, tides, atmospheric storm surges, and waves. Depending on these conditions, wave overtopping may occur and, in some cases, lead to a significant flood. In the present study, we investigate the effect of the stochastic character of waves on the flood itself using a phase-resolving wave model (SWASH). We focus on the macro-tidal site of Gâvres (France), consider two past flood events (both resulting from wave overtopping), and investigate how the effect of randomness of waves on the flood is changing with the forcing conditions and the time span (minutes to hours). We clearly show that the effect of waves’ stochasticity on the flood itself is far from being negligible and, especially on a short time scale (~15 min), generates an uncertainty comparable to that induced by the sea-level rise scenarios, as long as the still water level remains smaller than the critical level above which overflow occurs. This implies that lower confidence should be assigned to flood projection on sites where wave overtopping is the main process leading to flood.

scholarly journals Extreme sea levels along coastal China: uncertainties and implications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiayi Fang ◽  
Thomas Wahl ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Pan Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Hydrodynamic Model ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Probability Curve ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal China

AbstractExtreme sea levels (ESLs) due to typhoon-induced storm surge threaten the societal security of densely populated coastal China. Uncertainty in extreme value analysis (EVA) for ESL estimation has large implications for coastal communities’ adaptation to natural hazards. Here we evaluate uncertainties in ESL estimation and relevant driving factors based on hourly observations from 13 tide gauge stations and a complementary dataset derived from a hydrodynamic model. Results indicate significant uncertainties in ESL estimations stemming from using different EVA methods, which then propagate to the inundation assessment. Amplification factors due to sea-level rise (SLR) are highly sensitive to local relative SLR and the shape of the exceedance probability curve, which in turn depends on the selected EVA method. The hydrodynamic model hindcast indicates that high ESLs mainly occurred in eastern coastal China due to typhoon-induced storm surge. Larger uncertainties in the modelled ESLs are found for the coasts of the Yangtze River Delta, and particularly in the river mouth region. Future research and adaptation planning should prioritize these regions given expected future rising sea level, compound flood events, and human-induced factors (e.g. subsidence). This study provides theoretical and practical references for adaptation to ESL-related hazards along coastal China, with implications for coastal regions worldwide.

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