scholarly journals How well do ordinary Americans forecast the growth of COVID-19?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madison Fansher ◽  
Tyler Adkins ◽  
Poortata Lalwani ◽  
Madelyn Quirk ◽  
Aysecan Boduroglu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Line Graphs ◽  
Tabular Form ◽  
Data Presentation ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Better Than

Across multiple experiments, we found that Americans misestimated the growth of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and that these estimates were in turn related to people’s forecasts of the duration of social distancing orders, and their own future adherence to these orders. We also investigated how mode of data presentation influences forecasting of future cases by showing participants data on the number of COVID-19 cases from a five-week period in either graphical or tabular form. We found that people shown tables produced more accurate forecasts compared to people shown line-graphs of the same data; yet, people shown line-graphs were more confident in their estimates. These findings suggest that graphs engender false-confidence in the accuracy of forecasts, that people’s forecasts of future cases may have important implications for their attitudes concerning social distancing, and that tables are better than graphs for informing the public about the trajectory of COVID-19.

scholarly journals U.S. county level analysis to determine If social distancing slowed the spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Tannista Banerjee ◽  
Arnab Nayak
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cell Phone ◽  
The United States ◽  
County Level ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
Risks And Benefits ◽  
Level Analysis ◽  
The U.S

Objective. To analyze the effectiveness of social distancing in the United States (U.S.). Methods. A novel cell-phone ping data was used to quantify the measures of social distancing by all U.S. counties. Results. Using a difference-in-difference approach results show that social distancing has been effective in slowing the spread of COVID-19. Conclusions. As policymakers face the very difficult question of the necessity and effectiveness of social distancing across the U.S., counties where the policies have been imposed have effectively increased social distancing and have seen slowing the spread of COVID-19. These results might help policymakers to make the public understand the risks and benefits of the lockdown.

Determinants of English as language choice among Unaccompanied Migrant Children (UMC) in Makassar, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Andi Samsu Rijal ◽  
Andi Mega Januarti Putri
Keyword(s):  
Language Choice ◽  
Migrant Children ◽  
Immigrant Communities ◽  
The Public ◽  
International Language ◽  
Language User ◽  
Public Area ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Language Mastery

The essence of language is human activity. Communication with language is carried out through two basic human activities; speaking and listening during the interaction in a group of people. Immigrants in Makassar city communicate with immigrant communities and Makassar people. They used English and Indonesia to communicate with others. The aims of this article were to find out determinant factors of English as language choice among Unaccompanied Migrant Children (UMC) in Makassar and why they used English as their language choice to communicate with other people out of them. The data were taken from UMC in the shelter under the auspices of Makassar’s Social Office and in the public area of Makassar. This research was a qualitative approach; it was from a sociolinguistic perspective and focuses its analysis with the language choice among UMC. This research showed that most immigrants chose English as their language choice since they were in Makassar because they have acquired better than other international language and it has been mastered naturally by doing social interaction among themselves and people outside their community. UMC had more difficulties to socialize with Indonesian than the adult of Immigrants. Other than their lack of language mastery, they also have the anxiety to adapt to other immigrants and Makassar people. English was used by UMC to show their status as a foreigner who lived in a multicultural situation. Language becomes a power for a human being and it becomes a social identity for language user in one community. During the interaction of UMC in Makassar city, the role of English as an International language is shown.

MUNDANE MIRACLES IN AWADH. ENCOUNTERS WITH THE REVEALED AND THE HIDDEN

2020 ◽  
pp. 130-140
Author(s):  
Maxim B. Demchenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Local People ◽  
Natural Phenomena ◽  
Mughal Empire ◽  
The Public ◽  
British Raj ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Other World ◽  
Better Than

The sphere of the unknown, supernatural and miraculous is one of the most popular subjects for everyday discussions in Ayodhya – the last of the provinces of the Mughal Empire, which entered the British Raj in 1859, and in the distant past – the space of many legendary and mythological events. Mostly they concern encounters with inhabitants of the “other world” – spirits, ghosts, jinns as well as miraculous healings following magic rituals or meetings with the so-called saints of different religions (Hindu sadhus, Sufi dervishes),with incomprehensible and frightening natural phenomena. According to the author’s observations ideas of the unknown in Avadh are codified and structured in Avadh better than in other parts of India. Local people can clearly define if they witness a bhut or a jinn and whether the disease is caused by some witchcraft or other reasons. Perhaps that is due to the presence in the holy town of a persistent tradition of katha, the public presentation of plots from the Ramayana epic in both the narrative and poetic as well as performative forms. But are the events and phenomena in question a miracle for the Avadhvasis, residents of Ayodhya and its environs, or are they so commonplace that they do not surprise or fascinate? That exactly is the subject of the essay, written on the basis of materials collected by the author in Ayodhya during the period of 2010 – 2019. The author would like to express his appreciation to Mr. Alok Sharma (Faizabad) for his advice and cooperation.

American-European Relations in U. S. World History Textbooks, 1921-2001

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-112
Author(s):  
Martin Alm
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
World History ◽  
History Textbooks ◽  
Democratic Tradition ◽  
American Society ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The U.S ◽  
English Heritage ◽  
Better Than

This article studies U.S. views of the historical relationship between the U.S. and Europe as conceived during the 20th century. This is examined through U.S. World history text books dating from 1921 to 2001. The textbooks view relations within a general teleological narrative of progress through democracy and technology. Generally, the textbooks stress the significan ce of the English heritage to American society. From the American Revolution onwards, however, the U.S. stands as an example to Europe. Beginning with the two world wars, it also intervenes directly in Europe in order to save democracy. In the Cold War, the U.S. finally acknowledges the lea ding role it has been assigned in the world. Through its democratic ideals, the U.S. historically has a spe cial relationship with Great Britain and, by the 20th century, Western Europe in general. An American identity is established both in conjunction with Western Europe, by emphasizing their common democratic tradition, and in opposition to it, by stressing how the Americans have developed this tradition better than the Europeans, creating a more egalitarian and libertarian society. There is a need for Europe to become more like the U.S., and a Europe that does not follow the American lead is viewed with suspicion.

Voting at the U.S. Constitutional Convention

2019 ◽  
pp. 780-796
Author(s):  
Keith L. Dougherty
Keyword(s):  
Public Choice ◽  
Constitutional Convention ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Choice Perspective ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

This chapter describes how the public-choice perspective has provided new insights into the U.S. Constitutional Convention of 1787. It reviews articles on the impact of the rules of the Convention, attempts to infer delegate votes, and reviews how public choice has helped us understand the adoption of various clauses in the Constitution and studies of the Beard thesis.

scholarly journals A Panel Evaluation of the Changes in the General Public’s Social-Media-Following of United States’ Public Health Departments during COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 215013272199545
Author(s):  
Areej Khokhar ◽  
Aaron Spaulding ◽  
Zuhair Niazi ◽  
Sikander Ailawadhi ◽  
Rami Manochakian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Media ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Public Health Department ◽  
Health Departments ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Departments ◽  
The Social ◽  
The U.S

Importance: Social media is widely used by various segments of society. Its role as a tool of communication by the Public Health Departments in the U.S. remains unknown. Objective: To determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on social media following of the Public Health Departments of the 50 States of the U.S. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were collected by visiting the Public Health Department web page for each social media platform. State-level demographics were collected from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention was utilized to collect information regarding the Governance of each State’s Public Health Department. Health rankings were collected from “America’s Health Rankings” 2019 Annual report from the United Health Foundation. The U.S. News and World Report Education Rankings were utilized to provide information regarding the public education of each State. Exposure: Data were pulled on 3 separate dates: first on March 5th (baseline and pre-national emergency declaration (NED) for COVID-19), March 18th (week following NED), and March 25th (2 weeks after NED). In addition, a variable identifying the total change across platforms was also created. All data were collected at the State level. Main Outcome: Overall, the social media following of the state Public Health Departments was very low. There was a significant increase in the public interest in following the Public Health Departments during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: With the declaration of National Emergency, there was a 150% increase in overall public following of the State Public Health Departments in the U.S. The increase was most noted in the Midwest and South regions of the U.S. The overall following in the pandemic “hotspots,” such as New York, California, and Florida, was significantly lower. Interesting correlations were noted between various demographic variables, health, and education ranking of the States and the social media following of their Health Departments. Conclusion and Relevance: Social media following of Public Health Departments across all States of the U.S. was very low. Though, the social media following significantly increased during the early course of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it still remains low. Significant opportunity exists for Public Health Departments to improve social media use to engage the public better.

scholarly journals Agenda-setting and Public Policy in Private Foundations

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Kate Williamson ◽  
Belinda Luke
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Agenda Setting ◽  
Public Communication ◽  
Philanthropic Foundations ◽  
Policy Influence ◽  
The Public ◽  
Private Foundations ◽  
Social Causes ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis paper examines advocacy, agenda-setting and the public policy focus of private philanthropic foundations in Australia. While concerns have been raised regarding advocacy and public policy influence of foundations in countries such as the U.S., less is understood on this issue in other contexts. Interviews were conducted with 11 managers and trustees of 10 Private Ancillary Funds (PAFs) in late 2014. Analysis of publicly available data on the participating PAFs was then undertaken comparing PAF information available at the time of the interviews with that available approximately five years later, to consider any changes in the public communication of their agendas. Findings reveal PAFs’ agendas were largely consistent with public policy but may vary in the approaches to address social causes. Further, a preference for privacy indicates the PAF sector may be characterised as ‘quiet philanthropy’ rather than having a visible public presence. As such, PAFs’ advocacy focused on promoting philanthropy, rather than altering or influencing public policy. Our main contention is that the conceptions of advocacy in structured philanthropy are dominated by the obvious, the outliers and the noisy. Our contribution to the philanthropic literature is a more nuanced and broader discussion of how advocacy and agenda-setting occurs and is understood in the mainstream.

scholarly journals Robust estimation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in US counties

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanmo Li ◽  
Mengyang Gu
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Local Officials ◽  
Us Counties

AbstractThe COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $$5\%$$ 5 % of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $$39\%$$ 39 % (or 78 K, $$95\%$$ 95 % CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.

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