Is Trump a Symptom or a Cause? Economic, Political and Ideological Foundations of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the United States (First Draft)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhihan Cui ◽  
Sherry Jueyu Wu ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Yu Ding ◽  
Thomas Talhelm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Safety Net ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
American Conservatism ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Social Safety Nets

The US is amongst the worst-performing countries at combating COVID-19. And within the US, red (Republican) states have significantly higher cases per capita than blue (Democratic) states. We use cross-country, state, and county-level data to provide a comprehensive analysis of economic, political, and psychological factors contributing to these differences. An inferior social safety net and American conservatism systematically correlate with the realization and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and mask wearing from April to September. Economic inequality and weak social safety nets drive the economically vulnerable to work outside their homes, increasing mobility and reducing social distancing during early stages of the pandemic. Conservative ideology, anti-intellectualism, and evangelicalism drive people to politicize social distancing and mask wearing. Both factors predict a premature reopening in many states, and have a strong correlation with the drifting of COVID-19 epicenters to red states over the course of 2020. These factors have more explanatory power than partisanship in the first half year of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. However, from October on, closer to the presidential elections, partisanship is a better predictor of anti-COVID measures and explains well the regional variances of confirmed cases across states and counties. This indicates that partisanship is not the solely important factor in determining COVID-19 response and outcome, but its impact is likely to have been magnified as time goes by.

scholarly journals Taxes, Transfers, and Women’s Labor Supply in the United States

2017 ◽  
pp. 452-480
Author(s):  
Melanie Guldi ◽  
Lucie Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Labor Supply ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cash Transfers ◽  
Tax Credits ◽  
Women's Labor ◽  
The Us ◽  
Tax And Transfer System ◽  
Women’S Labor Supply

The US tax and transfer system generates revenue and provides safety net programs that move millions out of poverty. Since women are more likely to live in poverty, they are more likely to qualify for means-tested transfers. The structure of taxation in the United States often penalizes secondary earners, who are usually women. These programs alter work incentives and consequently may affect labor supply decisions. In this chapter, we examine the empirical evidence on the effects of taxes and transfers on the labor supply of women in the United States. We show that much has changed since 1990, with the biggest shift being a change from cash transfers via welfare to refundable tax credits to workers. Overall, the evidence we review shows women have higher labor force participation and are less responsive to changes in after-tax wages than they were before 1990, but the labor supply effects vary substantially by program considered.

How Prevalent is Performance-Related Pay in the United States? Current Incidence and Recent Trends

2013 ◽  
Vol 226 ◽  
pp. R4-R16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maury Gittleman ◽  
Brooks Pierce
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Wage ◽  
Potential Explanation ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Current Incidence

We address basic questions about performance-related pay in the US. How widespread is it? What characteristics of employers and jobs are associated with it? What are recent trends in its incidence? What factors are responsible for these trends? Nearly two-fifths of hours worked in the US economy in 2013 were in jobs with performance-related pay, but this share has been declining. We consider several possible causes for this trend and find that they do not have much explanatory power. We do establish, however, that any potential explanation must also account for a long-term shift in the relative incidence of performance-related pay away from low-wage and toward high-wage jobs.

scholarly journals The US Public’s Perception of the Threat of COVID-19 During the Rapid Spread of the COVID-19 Outbreak: Cross-Sectional Survey Study

10.2196/23400 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. e23400
Author(s):  
Xiaolei Xiu ◽  
Anran Wang ◽  
Qing Qian ◽  
Sizhu Wu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Self ◽  
Medical Conditions ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Us ◽  
And Behaviors

Background The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has made people uncertain about their perceptions of the threat of COVID-19 and COVID-19 response measures. To mount an effective response to this epidemic, it is necessary to understand the public's perceptions, behaviors, and attitudes. Objective We aimed to test the hypothesis that people’s perceptions of the threat of COVID-19 influence their attitudes and behaviors. Methods This study used an open dataset of web-based questionnaires about COVID-19. The questionnaires were provided by Nexoid United Kingdom. We selected the results of a questionnaire on COVID-19–related behaviors, attitudes, and perceptions among the US public. The questionnaire was conducted from March 29 to April 20, 2020. A total of 24,547 people who lived in the United States took part in the survey. Results In this study, the average self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 was 33.2%, and 49.9% (12,244/24,547) of the respondents thought that their chances of contracting COVID-19 were less than 30%. The self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 among women was 1.35 times that of males. A 5% increase in perceived infection risk was significantly associated with being 1.02 times (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.02-1.02; P<.001) more likely to report having close contact with >10 people, and being 1.01 times (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.01; P<.001) more likely to report that cohabitants disagreed with taking steps to reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19. However, there was no significant association between participants who lived with more than 5 cohabitants or less than 5 cohabitants (P=.85). Generally, participants who lived in states with 1001-10,000 COVID-19 cases, were aged 20-40 years, were obese, smoked, drank alcohol, never used drugs, and had no underlying medical conditions were more likely to be in close contact with >10 people. Most participants (21,017/24,547, 85.6%) agreed with washing their hands and maintaining social distancing, but only 20.2% (4958/24,547) of participants often wore masks. Additionally, male participants and participants aged <20 years typically disagreed with washing their hands, maintaining social distancing, and wearing masks. Conclusions This survey is the first attempt to describe the determinants of the US public’s perception of the threat of COVID-19 on a large scale. The self-assessed probability of contracting COVID-19 differed significantly based on the respondents’ genders, states of residence, ages, body mass indices, smoking habits, alcohol consumption habits, drug use habits, underlying medical conditions, environments, and behaviors. These findings can be used as references by public health policy makers and health care workers who want to identify populations that need to be educated on COVID-19 prevention and health.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 under Different Reopening Strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Liu ◽  
Raphael Thomadsen ◽  
Song Yao
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Density ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Us ◽  
Case Data

ABSTRACTWe combine COVID-19 case data with demographic and mobility data to estimate a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model for the spread of this disease in the United States. We find that the incidence of infectious COVID-19 individuals has a concave effect on contagion, as would be expected if people have inter-related social networks. We also demonstrate that social distancing and population density have large effects on the rate of contagion. The social distancing in late March and April substantially reduced the number of COVID-19 cases. However, the concave contagion pattern means that when social distancing measures are lifted, the growth rate is considerable but will not be exponential as predicted by standard SIR models. Furthermore, counties with the lowest population density could likely avoid high levels of contagion even with no social distancing. We forecast rates of new cases for COVID-19 under different social distancing norms and find that if social distancing is eliminated there will be a massive increase in the cases of COVID-19, about double what would occur if the US only restored to 50% of the way to normalcy.

Do campaigns matter outside the United States? Equilibrium and enlightenment in Korean presidential elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-39
Author(s):  
Jeonghun Min ◽  
Paul-Henri Gurian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Presidential Campaigns ◽  
The Us ◽  
Vote Intention

Do presidential campaigns matter outside the United States? We examine how public opinion responds to campaign events during Korean presidential campaigns. The fundamental variables of the election year influence vote intention before the campaign begins and substantially influence eventual vote choice. Campaign events assist voters to learn more about the fundamental variables – regionalism, party identification, and retrospective evaluations of the incumbent administration – and this leads to more informed intentions during the campaign. The results suggest that there is substantial congruence in the explanatory power of Holbrook’s ‘equilibrium’ theory and Gelman and King’s ‘enlightenment’ theory in presidential campaigns held in the US and in Korea.

The U.S. Welfare State Is Minimal

2021 ◽  
pp. 99-105
Author(s):  
Mark Robert Rank ◽  
Lawrence M. Eppard ◽  
Heather E. Bullock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Welfare State ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Safety Net ◽  
Welfare Benefits ◽  
The Social ◽  
Welfare Expenditures ◽  
The U.S

Chapter 13 examines the size of the social safety net in the United States. Compared with European and other OECD countries, the United States has a fairly small safety net. The amount spent is approximately 2 percent of our GDP. In particular, programs aimed at protecting children from poverty are minimal. These programs have also been reduced over time, especially since the 1996 welfare reform changes. Challenging the myth of the bloated welfare state requires tackling multiple intersecting misperceptions, including erroneous portrayals of U.S. welfare expenditures as exorbitant and low-income programs as driving up the national debt. It will also require shattering myths that legitimize keeping welfare benefits low.

Initial Conditions and Emergence of Corporate Reorganization in the United States and England

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-46
Author(s):  
Sarah Paterson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Institutional Logics ◽  
Corporate Reorganization ◽  
Selective Review ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Way

This chapter is a scene-setting exercise, offering a brief and highly selective review of almost one hundred years of corporate reorganization in the US and England. It seeks to provide some explanation for the very different ways in which corporate reorganization developed in each jurisdiction. Overall, its purpose is to help to sketch out the conditions which prevailed when the account in the book really begins in the 1970s, and how they offer significant explanatory power for the way in which corporate reorganization law and practice emerges in each jurisdiction. Specifically, the chapter investigates the relatively stable corporate reorganization law and practice which prevailed in each jurisdiction for much of the twentieth century, and, in each case, the institutional logics, practices, and identities which gave rise to it.

scholarly journals Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 under different reopening strategies

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Liu ◽  
Raphael Thomadsen ◽  
Song Yao
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Case Data

AbstractWe combine COVID-19 case data with mobility data to estimate a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the United States. In contrast to a standard SIR model, we find that the incidence of COVID-19 spread is concave in the number of infectious individuals, as would be expected if people have inter-related social networks. This concave shape has a significant impact on forecasted COVID-19 cases. In particular, our model forecasts that the number of COVID-19 cases would only have an exponential growth for a brief period at the beginning of the contagion event or right after a reopening, but would quickly settle into a prolonged period of time with stable, slightly declining levels of disease spread. This pattern is consistent with observed levels of COVID-19 cases in the US, but inconsistent with standard SIR modeling. We forecast rates of new cases for COVID-19 under different social distancing norms and find that if social distancing is eliminated there will be a massive increase in the cases of COVID-19.

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