scholarly journals Temporal measures of societal optimism reveal inversion of sentiment toward the near and distant future

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calvin Isch ◽  
Marijn ten Thij ◽  
Peter M. Todd ◽  
Johan Bollen
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Psychological Measures ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
The Future ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
Temporal Measures ◽  
Future 2 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Time Point

Individuals can hold contrasting views about distinct times, e.g., dread over tomorrow’s appointment and excitement about next summer’s vacation. Yet, psychological measures of happiness and optimism often assess only one time-point. Taking inspiration from the Treasury bond yield curve, which compares bond yields by their date to maturity, we compare online sentiment about different future times. Using over 2.1M tweets that reference 23 points in the future (2 days-30 years), we calculate the monthly mean sentiment toward each time point and analyze how it differs across short-, medium-, and longer-term future references. We call this function the optimism curve, as it measures levels of optimism toward different times into the future. Over the three year period of August 2017 to October 2020, we generally see a downward optimism curve, i.e., the long-term future is discussed less positive than the short-term. During the COVID-19 pandemic the optimism curve temporarily inverted, indicating declining optimism about the near future. Our findings show that social media users make differentiated assessments of the future that change in real-time to reflect uncertainty and major societal events.

scholarly journals Facts, Factors, and Questions

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis X. Diebold ◽  
Glenn D. Rudebusch
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Curve Shape ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
Bank Behavior ◽  
Theoretical Considerations

This chapter introduces some important conceptual, descriptive, and theoretical considerations regarding nominal government bond yield curves. Conceptually, just what is it that are we trying to measure? How can we best understand many bond yields at many maturities over many years? Descriptively, how do yield curves tend to behave? Can we obtain simple yet accurate dynamic characterizations and forecasts? Theoretically, what governs and restricts yield curve shape and evolution? Can we relate yield curves to macroeconomic fundamentals and central bank behavior? The discussions cover three interest rate curves, zero-coupon yields, yield curve facts, yield curve factors, and yield curve questions.

scholarly journals Does The Expectations Hypothesis Explain The Term Structure Of Treasury Bond Yields In Tunisia?

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 239
Author(s):  
Jamel Boukhatem
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Cointegrated Var ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
One Year

<p><em>This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) using monthly data for Treasury bond yields (TBYs) over the period 1994m5–2014m12 and ranging in maturity from one year to 10 years. We apply cointegrated-VAR jointly on more than one pair of yields. The results suggest rejection of the EH throughout the medium maturity spectrum. However, for longer maturities they suggest the validity of the EH for the TBYs. This indeed confirms the smooth functioning of Tunisian bond market which gives an indication that the yield curve should serve as an indicator to the monetary policymakers to manage inflation and to influence the aggregate demand in the economy.</em></p><p><strong> </strong></p>

Modeling the green bond yield on bond offering

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 2858-2878
Author(s):  
M.I. Emets
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Bond Pricing ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Fair Price ◽  
Lower Yield ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Bond Yield

Subject. The article addresses the green bond pricing as compared to bonds other than green ones. Objectives. The aims are to determine how the fact that a bond is identified as a green one, the issue amount, and the availability of third-party verification, influence the yield to maturity; to make recommendations on effective green bond pricing. Methods. The study employs econometric testing of hypotheses, using the multiple linear regression. The sample includes 318 green and 1695 conventional bonds. Results. Green bonds have a lower yield to maturity in comparison with conventional bonds. The yield to maturity of green bonds with third-party verification is lower, as contrasted with green bonds without verification. Conclusions. The next step in the green bond market development is creating a benchmark yield curve for sovereign green bonds, with parallel issuance of conventional, non-green bonds. The yield curve is crucial for effective bond pricing. Two yield curves, i.e. for green and non-green bonds, will enable investors to estimate the fair price on issuance, as well as to define, if there is a difference in pricing.

Country-specific euro area government bond yield reactions to ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Fendel ◽  
Frederik Neugebauer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Current Spread ◽  
Policy Program ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractThis paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of 11 euro area member states. Measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. The country-specific extent of yield reduction seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The spread between core and periphery countries reduces because of a stronger decrease in the latter. This result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the current spread level.

scholarly journals 169 Secukinumab provides sustained reduction in fatigue in patients with active psoriatic arthritis through three years: long-term data from the FUTURE 1 and FUTURE 2 studies

Rheumatology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector Chinoy ◽  
Laure Gossec ◽  
Tore K Kvien ◽  
Philip G Conaghan ◽  
Mikkel Østergaard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Psoriatic Arthritis ◽  
Sustained Reduction ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future 2 ◽  
Term Data

A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields

2021 ◽  
pp. 056943452098827
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
State Theory ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds

Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly through the short-term interest rate. Several recent empirical studies that examine the dynamics of government bond yields not only substantiate Keynes’s view that the long-term interest rate responds markedly to the short-term interest rate but also have relevance for macroeconomic theory and policy. This article relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Investors’ psychology, herding behavior in financial markets, and uncertainty about the future reinforce the effects of the short-term interest rate and the central bank’s monetary policy actions on the long-term interest rate. JEL classifications: E12; E40; E43; E50; E58; E60; F30; G10; G12; H62; H63

Rehydration with a Caffeinated Beverage during the Nonexercise Periods of 3 Consecutive Days of 2-a-Day Practices

2004 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 419-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly A. Fiala ◽  
Douglas J. Casa ◽  
Melissa W. Roti
Keyword(s):  
Body Fat ◽  
Hydration Status ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Psychological Measures ◽  
Mild Heat ◽  
Urine Color ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Time Point

The purpose of this study was to assess the influence of rehydration with a caffeinated beverage during non exercise periods on hydration status throughout consecutive practices in the heat. Ten (7 women, 3 men) partially heat-acclimated athletes (age 24 ± ly, body fat 19.2 ± 2%, weight 68.4 ± 4.0 kg, height 170 ± 3 cm) completed 3 successive days of 2-a-day practices (2 h/ practice, 4 h/d) in mild heat (WBGT = 23 °C). The 2 trials (double-blind, random, cross-over design) included; 1) caffeine (CAF) rehydrated with Coca-Cola® and 2) caffeine-free (CF) rehydrated with Caffeine-Free Coca-Cola®. Urine and psychological measures were determined before and after each 2-h practice. A significant difference was found for urine color for the post-AM time point, F = 5.526, P = 0.031. No differences were found among other variables (P > 0.05). In summary, there is little evidence to suggest that the use of beverages containing caffeine during non exercise might hinder hydration status.

Markets are overreacting to US price and rates risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Ongoing Support

Significance The continuation of the modest manufacturing downturn follows the recent report of slower third-quarter GDP growth. Despite slower growth, bond markets are challenging an attempt by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delink tapering from tightening by bringing forward their forecasts for rate increases: futures markets are pricing in two 25-basis-point rate hikes by end-2022. Impacts Equities are at a record high in the United States; providing ongoing support for this, real US bond yields remain in negative territory. The Brent crude oil price is near its highest since 2014; further upside will be limited but it is likely to stay high well into 2022. Germany’s ten-year bond yield, negative since April 2019, has risen by 40 basis points since end-August and will soon turn positive.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document