scholarly journals Effect of Confidence Interval Construction on Judgment Accuracy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Mandel ◽  
Robert N Collins ◽  
Evan F. Risko ◽  
Jonathan Albert Fugelsang
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Confidence Rating ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Elicitation Method ◽  
Judgment Accuracy ◽  
Construction Procedure ◽  
One Step ◽  
Elicitation Studies

Three experiments (N = 550) examined the effect of an interval construction elicitation method used in several expert elicitation studies on judgment accuracy. Participants made judgments about topics that were either searchable or unsearchable online using one of two order variations of the interval construction procedure. One group of participants provided their best judgment (one step) prior to constructing an interval (i.e., lower bound, upper bound, and a confidence rating that the correct value fell in the range provided), whereas another group of participants provided their best judgment last, after the three-step confidence interval was constructed. Theoverall effect of this elicitation method was not significant in 8 out of 9 univariate tests. Moreover, the calibration of confidence intervals also was not affected by elicitation order. The findings warrant skepticism regarding the benefit of prior confidence interval construction forimproving judgment accuracy.

scholarly journals Elimination of the Femoral Neck in Measuring Femoral Version Allows for Less Variance in Interobserver Reliability

Medicina ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (12) ◽  
pp. 1363
Author(s):  
Radomir Dimovski ◽  
Robert Teitge ◽  
Nicholas Bolz ◽  
Patrick Schafer ◽  
Vamsy Bobba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Femoral Head ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Interobserver Reliability ◽  
Femoral Shaft ◽  
Lesser Trochanter ◽  
Femoral Version ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Head Neck

Background and Objectives: Producing consistent measures of femoral version amongst observers are necessary to allow for an assessment of version for possible corrective procedures. The purpose of this study was to compare two computed tomography (CT)-based techniques for the reliability of measuring femoral version amongst observers. Materials and Methods: Review was performed for 15 patients post-femoral nailing for comminuted (Winquist III and IV) femoral shaft fractures where CT scanograms were obtained. Two CT-based techniques were utilized to measure femoral version by five observers. Results: The mean femoral version, when utilizing a proximal line drawn down the center of the femoral head-neck through CT, was 9.50 ± 4.82°, while the method utilizing the head and shaft at lesser trochanter centers produced a mean version of 18.73 ± 2.69°. A significant difference was noted between these two (p ≤ 0.001). The method of measuring in the center of the femoral head and neck produced an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.960 with a 95% confidence interval lower bound of 0.909 and upper bound of 0.982. For the method assessing version via the center of the head and shaft at the lesser trochanter region, the ICC was 0.993 with a 95% confidence interval lower bound of 0.987 and an upper bound of 0.996. Conclusions: The method of measuring version proximally through a CT image of the femoral head–neck versus overlaying the femoral head with the femoral shaft at the most prominent aspect of the lesser trochanter produces differing version measurements by roughly 10° while yielding an almost perfect interobserver reliability in the new technique. Both techniques result in significantly high interobserver reliability.

scholarly journals STUDI EKSPLANATORI DAN KONFIRMATORI TENTANG KOMPETENSI TENAGA PENDIDIK BERDASARKAN INJIL YOHANES DI KALANGAN DOSEN UNIVERSITAS PGRI SEMARANG (EXPLANATORY AND CONFIRMATORY STUDY ON EDUCATOR POWER COMPETENCY BASED ON THE GOSPEL OF JOHN FOR LECTURERS)

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-127
Author(s):  
Adhi Kusmantoro ◽  
Muner Daliman ◽  
Ragil Kristiawan ◽  
Gidion Gidion
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Teaching Staff ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Quantitative Research Methods ◽  
Teacher Colleges ◽  
Binary Segmentation

The location of the lecturer competency research was carried out at the PGRI University of Semarang. Based on preliminary research observations there has been a decrease in lecturer competence. Therefore the aim of this research is to determine the most dominant competence, the level of competence implementation between Christian and non-Christian lecturers, and the most dominant level of functional positions. This research uses quantitative research methods. From the results of data analysis carried out with Confidence Interval at the 5% significance level, the lower bound and upper bound values ​​were obtained in the medium category so that they were in accordance with the first hypothesis. From the results of the analysis using linear regression, the personality competency dimension (D3) has about 42%. These results indicate that pedagogical competence is the most dominant dimension because it is closely related as a competent teaching staff in teacher colleges. The level of implementation of Christian lecturers and non-Christian lecturers is in the medium category. But with the analysis of the score acquisition, the score for the implementation of Christian lecturers' competence was higher, namely 99.10%. Based on the results of the analysis using Linear Regression and Binary segmentation on the fourth hypothesis Head Lector becomes the most dominant functional background category category, being able to improve 0.637 times. Efforts or policies need to be made to improve the quality of lecturers.   Lokasi penelitian kompetensi dosen dilaksanakan di Universitas PGRI Semarang. Berdasarkan observasi awal penelitian telah terjadi penurunan kompetensi dosen. Oleh karena itu tujuan dalam penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui kompetensi yang paling dominan, tingkat implementasi kompetensi antara dosen Kristen dan dosen non-Kristen, dan tingkat jabatan fungsional yang paling dominan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode penelitian kuantitatif. Dari hasil analisis data yang dilakukan dengan Confidence Interval pada taraf signifikansi 5% dihasilkan nilai lower Bound dan upper Bound pada kategori sedang sehingga sesuai dengan hipotesis pertama. Dari hasil analisis menggunakan regresi linier dimensi kompetensi kepribadian (D3) memiliki sebesar 42 %. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa kompetensi pedagogik sebagai dimensi yang paling dominan karena berkaitan erat sebagai tenaga pengajar yang kompeten pada perguruan tinggi keguruan. Tingkat implementasi dosen Kristen dan dosen non-Kristen pada kategori sedang. Tetapi dengan analisa perolehan skor, skor implementasi kompetensi dosen Kristen lebih tinggi yaitu 99,10%. Berdasarkan hasil analisis menggunakan Regresi linier dan Biner segmentation pada hipotesis keempat Lektor Kepala menjadi kategori latar belakang jabatan fungsional paling dominan, mampu memperbaiki sebesar 0,637 kali. Perlu dilakukan upaya atau kebijakan untuk meningkatkan kualitas dosen.

scholarly journals Multiple closed orbits for N-body-type problems

1998 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Periodic Solutions ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Body Type ◽  
Fixed Energy ◽  
Closed Orbits

Using the equivariant Ljusternik-Schnirelmann theory and the estimate of the upper bound of the critical value and lower bound for the collision solutions, we obtain some new results in the large concerning multiple geometrically distinct periodic solutions of fixed energy for a class of planar N-body type problems.

Limit Cycle Bifurcations for Piecewise Smooth Hamiltonian Systems with a Generalized Eye-Figure Loop

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 1650204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihua Yang ◽  
Liqin Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Limit Cycle ◽  
Hamiltonian Systems ◽  
Limit Cycles ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Melnikov Function ◽  
Piecewise Smooth ◽  
First Order ◽  
Period Annulus

This paper deals with the limit cycle bifurcations for piecewise smooth Hamiltonian systems. By using the first order Melnikov function of piecewise near-Hamiltonian systems given in [Liu & Han, 2010], we give a lower bound and an upper bound of the number of limit cycles that bifurcate from the period annulus between the center and the generalized eye-figure loop up to the first order of Melnikov function.

Isolated minima of the product of n linear forms

1953 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. S. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Linear Forms ◽  
Image Position

Letbe n linear forms with real coefficients and determinant Δ = ∥ aij∥ ≠ 0; and denote by M(X) the lower bound of | X1X2 … Xn| over all integer sets (u) ≠ (0). It is well known that γn, the upper bound of M(X)/|Δ| over all sets of forms Xi, is finite, and the value of γn has been determined when n = 2 and n = 3.

scholarly journals The Algebraic Degree of Phase-Type Distributions

2010 ◽  
Vol 47 (03) ◽  
pp. 611-629
Author(s):  
Mark Fackrell ◽  
Qi-Ming He ◽  
Peter Taylor ◽  
Hanqin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Polynomial Algorithm ◽  
Algebraic Degree ◽  
Nonnegative Matrices ◽  
Stieltjes Transform ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Phase Type ◽  
Phase Type Distributions ◽  
The Matrix

This paper is concerned with properties of the algebraic degree of the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of phase-type (PH) distributions. The main problem of interest is: given a PH generator, how do we find the maximum and the minimum algebraic degrees of all irreducible PH representations with that PH generator? Based on the matrix exponential (ME) order of ME distributions and the spectral polynomial algorithm, a method for computing the algebraic degree of a PH distribution is developed. The maximum algebraic degree is identified explicitly. Using Perron-Frobenius theory of nonnegative matrices, a lower bound and an upper bound on the minimum algebraic degree are found, subject to some conditions. Explicit results are obtained for special cases.

scholarly journals Encoding Two-Dimensional Range Top-k Queries

Algorithmica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seungbum Jo ◽  
Rahul Lingala ◽  
Srinivasa Rao Satti
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Lower Bounds ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Total Order ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Cartesian Tree ◽  
Dimensional Range

AbstractWe consider the problem of encoding two-dimensional arrays, whose elements come from a total order, for answering $${\text{Top-}}{k}$$ Top- k queries. The aim is to obtain encodings that use space close to the information-theoretic lower bound, which can be constructed efficiently. For an $$m \times n$$ m × n array, with $$m \le n$$ m ≤ n , we first propose an encoding for answering 1-sided $${\textsf {Top}}{\text {-}}k{}$$ Top - k queries, whose query range is restricted to $$[1 \dots m][1 \dots a]$$ [ 1 ⋯ m ] [ 1 ⋯ a ] , for $$1 \le a \le n$$ 1 ≤ a ≤ n . Next, we propose an encoding for answering for the general (4-sided) $${\textsf {Top}}{\text {-}}k{}$$ Top - k queries that takes $$(m\lg {{(k+1)n \atopwithdelims ()n}}+2nm(m-1)+o(n))$$ ( m lg ( k + 1 ) n n + 2 n m ( m - 1 ) + o ( n ) ) bits, which generalizes the joint Cartesian tree of Golin et al. [TCS 2016]. Compared with trivial $$O(nm\lg {n})$$ O ( n m lg n ) -bit encoding, our encoding takes less space when $$m = o(\lg {n})$$ m = o ( lg n ) . In addition to the upper bound results for the encodings, we also give lower bounds on encodings for answering 1 and 4-sided $${\textsf {Top}}{\text {-}}k{}$$ Top - k queries, which show that our upper bound results are almost optimal.

On the Modal μ-Calculus Over Finite Symmetric Graphs

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanna D’Agostino ◽  
Giacomo Lenzi
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Satisfiability Problem ◽  
Finite Model ◽  
Model Property ◽  
Finite Model Property ◽  
Symmetric Graphs ◽  
Trivial Consequence

AbstractIn this paper we consider the alternation hierarchy of the modal μ-calculus over finite symmetric graphs and show that in this class the hierarchy is infinite. The μ-calculus over the symmetric class does not enjoy the finite model property, hence this result is not a trivial consequence of the strictness of the hierarchy over symmetric graphs. We also find a lower bound and an upper bound for the satisfiability problem of the μ-calculus over finite symmetric graphs.

scholarly journals Polynomial Mixing of the Edge-Flip Markov Chain for Unbiased Dyadic Tilings

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-387
Author(s):  
S. CANNON ◽  
D. A. LEVIN ◽  
A. STAUFFER
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Relaxation Time ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Open Problem ◽  
Mixing Time ◽  
Perpendicular Bisector ◽  
Unit Square

We give the first polynomial upper bound on the mixing time of the edge-flip Markov chain for unbiased dyadic tilings, resolving an open problem originally posed by Janson, Randall and Spencer in 2002 [14]. A dyadic tiling of size n is a tiling of the unit square by n non-overlapping dyadic rectangles, each of area 1/n, where a dyadic rectangle is any rectangle that can be written in the form [a2−s, (a + 1)2−s] × [b2−t, (b + 1)2−t] for a, b, s, t ∈ ℤ⩾ 0. The edge-flip Markov chain selects a random edge of the tiling and replaces it with its perpendicular bisector if doing so yields a valid dyadic tiling. Specifically, we show that the relaxation time of the edge-flip Markov chain for dyadic tilings is at most O(n4.09), which implies that the mixing time is at most O(n5.09). We complement this by showing that the relaxation time is at least Ω(n1.38), improving upon the previously best lower bound of Ω(n log n) coming from the diameter of the chain.

and Var[νˆ ] = 4σ + l ) (l −2(1 + c . Similarly, when σˆ ≤ 0.04, νˆ = δˆ + σˆ − 0.04(c ) (7.12) is an estimate for the constant-scaled metric in accordance with FDA Guidance (2001) using a REML UN model. This estimate is asymptoti-cally normally distributed and unbiased with E[νˆ ] = δ +σ −σ − 0.04(c ) and Var[νˆ ] = 4σ . To assess PBE we ‘plug-in’ estimates of δ and the variance components and calculate the upper bound of an asymptotic 90% confidence interval. If this upper bound is below zero we declare that PBE has been shown. Using the code in Appendix B and the data in Section 7.2, we obtain the value −1.90 for log(AUC) and the value −0.95 for log(Cmax). As both of these are below zero, we can declare that T and R are PBE. 7.5.2 PBE using a replicate design Here we fit the same REML UN model as defined in Section 7.4. Let νˆ = δˆ + σˆ + σˆ − (1 + c )(σˆ + σˆ ) (7.13) be an estimate for the reference-scaled metric in accordance with FDA Guidance (2001) when (σˆ + σˆ > 0.04 and using a REML UN model. Then, this estimate is asymptotically normally distributed, un-biased with E[νˆ ] = δ +σ − (1 + c ) and has variance of Var[νˆ ] = 4σ + l + (1 + c ) (l )+ 2l −2(1+c −2(1 + c + 2(1 + c ) (l ) When σˆ + σˆ ≤ 0.04, let νˆ = δˆ + σˆ + σˆ − (σˆ + σˆ )− 0.04(c ) (7.14) be an estimate for the constant-scaled metric in accordance with FDA

2003 ◽  
pp. 369-369
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Variance Components ◽  
Fda Guidance ◽  
Replicate Design ◽  
Normally Distributed
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