scholarly journals Indirect causal influence of a single bot on opinion dynamics through a simple recommendation algorithm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niccolo Pescetelli ◽  
Daniel Barkoczi
Keyword(s):  
Direct Interaction ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Recommendation Algorithm ◽  
Internal Representations ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Causal Pathways ◽  
Average Population ◽  
Content Recommendation ◽  
Almost All

The ability of social and political bots to influence public opinion is often difficult to estimate. Recent studies found that hyper-partisan accounts often directly interact with already highly polarised users on Twitter and are unlikely to influence the general population's average opinion. In this study, we suggest that social bots, trolls and zealots may affect people’s views not just via a direct interaction (e.g. retweets, at-mentions and likes) and via indirect causal pathways through infiltrating platforms’ content recommendation systems. Using a simple agent-based opinion-dynamics simulation, we isolate the effect of a single bot – representing only 1% of the population – on the average opinion of Bayesian agents when we remove all direct connections between the bot and human agents. We compare this experimental condition with an identical baseline condition where such a bot is absent. We used the same random seed in both simulations so that all other conditions remained identical. Results show that, even in the absence of direct connections, the presence of the bot is sufficient to shift the average population opinion. Furthermore, we observe that the presence of the bot significantly affects the opinion of almost all agents in the population. Overall, these findings indicate that social bots and hyperpartisan accounts can influence average population opinions by changing platforms’ recommendation engines’ internal representations.

scholarly journals Integrated IEW-TOPSIS and Fire Dynamics Simulation for Agent-Based Evacuation Modeling in Industrial Safety

Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Wattana Chanthakhot ◽  
Kasin Ransikarbum
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Evacuation Simulation ◽  
Evacuation Modeling ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

Emergency events in the industrial sector have been increasingly reported during the past decade. However, studies that focus on emergency evacuation to improve industrial safety are still scarce. Existing evacuation-related studies also lack a perspective of fire assembly point’s analysis. In this research, location of assembly points is analyzed using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique based on the integrated information entropy weight (IEW) and techniques for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support the fire evacuation plan. Next, we propose a novel simulation model that integrates fire dynamics simulation coupled with agent-based evacuation simulation to evaluate the impact of smoke and visibility from fire on evacuee behavior. Factors related to agent and building characteristics are examined for fire perception of evacuees, evacuees with physical disabilities, escape door width, fire location, and occupancy density. Then, the proposed model is applied to a case study of a home appliance factory in Chachoengsao, Thailand. Finally, results for the total evacuation time and the number of remaining occupants are statistically examined to suggest proper evacuation planning.

scholarly journals Modeling Confirmation Bias and Peer Pressure in Opinion Dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Longzhao Liu ◽  
Xin Wang ◽  
Xuyang Chen ◽  
Shaoting Tang ◽  
Zhiming Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Peer Pressure ◽  
Homogeneous Population ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Personal Opinion ◽  
The Impact

Confirmation bias and peer pressure are regarded as the main psychology origins of personal opinion adjustment. Each show substantial impacts on the formation of collective decisions. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to study how the interplay between these two mechanisms affects public opinion evolution on large-scale social networks. In this paper, we propose an agent-based model of opinion dynamics which incorporates the conjugate effect of confirmation bias (characterized by the population identity scope and initiative adaptation speed) and peer pressure (described by a susceptibility threshold and passive adaptation speed). First, a counterintuitive non-monotonous phenomenon arises in the homogeneous population: the number of opinion clusters first increases and then decreases to one as the population identity scope becomes larger. We then consider heterogeneous populations where “impressionable” individuals with large susceptibility to peer pressure and “confident” individuals with small susceptibility coexist. We find that even a small fraction of impressionable individuals could help eliminate public polarization when population identity scope is relatively large. In particular, the impact of impressionable agents would be greater if these agents are hubs. More intriguingly, while impressionable individuals have randomly distributed initial opinions, most of them would finally evolve to moderates. We highlight the emergence of these “impressionable moderates” who are easily influenced, yet are important in public opinion competition, which may inspire efficient strategies in winning competitive campaigns.

BINDING OF 17-SUBSTITUTED 16-NITRILE 16,17-SECOESTRANE COMPOUNDS TO ESTROGEN RECEPTORS – „IN VITRO“ AND „IN SILICO“ STUDY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzana S. Jovanović-Šanta ◽  
◽  
Esma Isenović ◽  
Julijana A. Petrović ◽  
Yaraslau U. Dzichenka
Keyword(s):  
Amino Acids ◽  
Estrogen Receptors ◽  
Nuclear Translocation ◽  
Binding Mode ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Breast Cancers ◽  
Number Of Binding Sites ◽  
Almost All

About 75% of breast cancers express estrogen receptors (ERs), which is a good base for an efficient endocrine therapy. This gives the opportunity for the treatment of patients with antiestrogens, compounds that bind to the ERs and thus compete to estradiol (E2), preventing its action in progression of estrogen-depending cancers. Here we present results of testing the effect of the modified steroids, namely 17-substituted 16-nitrile 16,17-secoestrane compounds on the E2-ER complex forming, its stability, nuclear translocation and binding to DNA. Almost all compounds in moderate to high rate induced lower forming of this complex, destabilizing it – they increased Kd of this complex and decreased number of binding sites. Complex formed in the presence of some test secosteroids could pass to the nucleus, while other compounds inhibited translocation. In the presence of some compounds binding of the formed complex E2-ER to DNA was noticed. Docking followed molecular dynamics simulation was performed to reveal binding mode of E2 to ER in the presence of test secosteroids. Amino acids important for binding process and complex stabilization were detected. Analysis of the simulation data allowed identifying key amino acids and type of binding of the secoestrane compounds, important for high affinity binding of the steroidal compounds.

scholarly journals Paths to Polarization: How Extreme Views, Miscommunication, and Random Chance Drive Opinion Dynamics

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew A. Turner ◽  
Paul E. Smaldino
Keyword(s):  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Initial Distribution ◽  
Polarization Measurement ◽  
Cultural Complexity ◽  
Stochastic Variation ◽  
Social Phenomena ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Apparent Reduction ◽  
Path Dependent

Understanding the social conditions that tend to increase or decrease polarization is important for many reasons. We study a network-structured agent-based model of opinion dynamics, extending a model previously introduced by Flache and Macy (2011), who found that polarization appeared to increase with the introduction of long-range ties but decrease with the number of salient opinions, which they called the population’s “cultural complexity.” We find the following. First, polarization is strongly path dependent and sensitive to stochastic variation. Second, polarization depends strongly on the initial distribution of opinions in the population. In the absence of extremists, polarization may be mitigated. Third, noisy communication can drive a population toward more extreme opinions and even cause acute polarization. Finally, the apparent reduction in polarization under increased “cultural complexity” arises via a particular property of the polarization measurement, under which a population containing a wider diversity of extreme views is deemed less polarized. This work has implications for understanding the population dynamics of beliefs, opinions, and polarization as well as broader implications for the analysis of agent-based models of social phenomena.

INFLUENCE OF COLLABORATIVE BEHAVIOR ON CLAIM NEGOTIATION

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Awwad ◽  
Stephanie Atallah ◽  
Carol Menassa
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Project Delivery ◽  
Integrated Project Delivery ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Construction Disputes ◽  
Collaborative Behavior ◽  
Integrated Project

The high cost incurred by the resolution of conflicts is largely affected by the existing adversarial nature of the construction industry along with the use of non-efficient dispute resolution methods in construction projects. This paper studies opinion dynamics in the negotiation of construction disputes while trying to understand the behavior and extremism of each contractual party. The developed model uses an agent-based approach to show how each agent’s attitude can influence the negotiation process when solving a dispute. It can also be used to highlight the importance of alternative dispute resolution (ADR) methods and the use of a mediator in helping parties initiate negotiation and decrease the number of negotiation cycles needed to converge. The results showed that negotiation is not only affected by the attitude and character of the agents involved but it is also influenced by the delivery method of the project and the level of intensity of each agent. It was found that when the project is delivered through an Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) method, parties are more flexible and cooperative and will reach agreement within few negotiation cycles.

scholarly journals Modeling the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19: Agent-based approach including molecular dynamics simulation and SEIR type methods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Lohrasebi ◽  
Fatemeh Aghaei
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Everyday Activities ◽  
Health Strategy ◽  
Virus Spreading ◽  
Flexible Model ◽  
Individual Human

Abstract In this study we developed a SEIR model, including social interactions and individual human mobility in everyday activities. For this purpose, daily mobility of people was considered by using the molecular dynamic method and the virus spreading was modeled employing the ordinary SEIR scheme. Utilizing this model, the variation of population size, density, and health strategy as well as the effect of busy places such as malls, were considered. The results show that, our flexible model is able to consider the effects of different parameters such as distance between peoples, local population density and health strategy in the outbreak.

scholarly journals On the Development of a Multi-Layered Agent-Based Heurisitc System for Vehicle Routing Problem under Random Vehicle Breakdown

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Anees M. Abu- Monshar ◽  
Ammar F. Al-Bazi ◽  
Qusay H. Alsalami
Keyword(s):  
Vehicle Routing ◽  
Vehicle Routing Problem ◽  
Static Problem ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Dynamic Vehicle Routing ◽  
Routing Problem ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Good Order ◽  
Almost All

With the recent technological advancement, the Dynamic Vehicle Routing Problem (DVRP) is becoming more applicable but almost all of the research in this field limited the source of dynamism from the order side rather from the vehicle, in addition to the adoption of inflexible tools that are mainly designed for the static problem. Considering multiple random vehicle breakdowns complicates the problem of how to adapt and distribute the workload to other functioning vehicles. In this ongoing PhD research, a proposed multi-layered Agent-Based Model (ABM) along with a modelling framework on how to deal with such disruptive events in a reactive continuous manner. The model is partially constructed and experimented, with a developed clustering rule, on two randomly generated scenario for the purpose of validation. The rule achieved good order allocation to vehicles and reacted to different problem sizes by rejecting orders that are over the model capacity. This shows a promising path in fully adopting the ABM model in this dynamic problem.

scholarly journals From social interactions to private environmental behaviours: The case of consumer food waste

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Piras ◽  
Simone Righi ◽  
Marco Setti ◽  
Nazli Koseoglu ◽  
Matthew Grainger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Food Waste ◽  
Network Effects ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Social Monitoring ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
Limited Degree ◽  
Environmental Behaviours

Consumer food waste, like many environmental behaviours, takes place in private, and is not directly subject to social monitoring. Nevertheless, social interactions can affect private opinions and behaviours. This paper builds an agent-based model of interactions between consumers heterogeneous in their sociability, initial opinions and behaviours related to food waste and willingness to consider different opinions, in order to assess how social interactions can affect private behaviours. Compared to existing models of opinion dynamics, we innovate by including a range of ``cognitive dissonance'' between stated opinions and actual behaviours that consumers are willing to accept before changing one of the two. We calibrate the model using questionnaire data on household food waste in Italy. We find that a limited degree of mixing between different socio-demographic groups, namely adult and young consumers, is enough to trigger change, but a certain openness of mind is required from more wasteful individuals. Equally, a small group of environmentally committed consumers can attract a sizeable share of the population towards low-waste behaviours if they show a certain variability of opinions and are willing to compromise with individuals in their close neighbourhood in terms of opinions. These findings can help design effective interventions to promote pro-environmental behaviours, taking advantage of the beneficial network effects while anticipating negative externalities.

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