Continuous Decisions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seng Bum Michael Yoo ◽  
Benjamin Hayden ◽  
John Pearson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Control Theory ◽  
Hierarchical Structure ◽  
Action Planning ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Microeconomic Theory ◽  
Engineering Control ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Academic Study

Humans and other animals evolved to make decisions that extend over time with continuous and ever-changing options. Nonetheless, the academic study of decision-making is mostly limited to the simple case of choice between two options. Here we advocate that the study of choice should expand to include continuous decisions. Continuous decisions, by our definition, involve a continuum of possible responses and take place over an extended period of time during which the response is continuously subject to modification. In most continuous decisions, the range of options can fluctuate and is affected by recent responses, making consideration of reciprocal feedback between choices and the environment essential. The study of continuous decisions raises new questions, such as how abstract processes of valuation and comparison are co-implemented with action planning and execution, how we simulate the large number of possible futures our choices lead to, and how our brains employ hierarchical structure to make choices more efficiently. While microeconomic theory has proven invaluable for discrete decisions, we propose that engineering control theory may serve as a better foundation for continuous ones. And while the concept of value has proven foundational for discrete decisions, goal states and policies may prove more useful for continuous ones.

scholarly journals Naturalistic decision-making: continuous, open-world, and recursive

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seng Bum Michael Yoo ◽  
Benjamin Hayden ◽  
John Pearson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Microeconomic Theory ◽  
Naturalistic Decision Making ◽  
Open World ◽  
Engineering Control ◽  
Choice Sets ◽  
In The Wild ◽  
The Brain ◽  
Over Time

Real-world decisions take place over time, in dynamics contexts, and with frequently shifting choice sets. In contrast, most studies of decision making have focused on single, abstracted choices among small numbers of discrete options. Here, we advocate for a shift in emphasis to what we call continuous decisions, which better capture the complexity of decision-making in the wild. Continuous decisions involve a continuum of possible responses and take place over an extended period of time during which the response is continuously subject to modification. The range of options available at any time can fluctuate and is affected by recent responses, making consideration of feedback between choices and the environment essential. The study of continuous decisions emphasizes distinct questions not easily captured by discrete decisions, including questions about how the brain integrates choices with movement, bridges representations through time, and maintains hierarchically organized information. While microeconomic theory has proven invaluable for discrete decisions, we propose that engineering control theory may serve as a better foundation for continuous ones. And while the concept of value has proven foundational for discrete decisions, goal states and policies may prove more useful for continuous ones.

Extended Emulation Theory

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Rade
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Action Planning ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
External Input ◽  
Motor Action ◽  
Abstract Thought ◽  
Thought Patterns ◽  
Stored Information ◽  
Short Term Prediction ◽  
The Mind

Emulators are internal models, first evolved for prediction in perception to shorten the feedback on motor action. However, the selective pressure on perception is to improve the fitness of decision-making, driving the evolution of emulators towards context-dependent payoff representation and integration of action planning, not enhanced prediction as is generally assumed. The result is integrated perceptual, memory, representational, and imaginative capacities processing external input and stored internal input for decision-making, while simultaneously updating stored information. Perception, recall, imagination, theory of mind, and dreaming are the same process with different inputs. Learning proceeds via scaffolding on existing conceptual infrastructure, a weak form of embodied cognition. Discrete concepts are emergent from continuous dynamics and are in a perceptual, not representational, format. Language is also in perceptual format and enables precise abstract thought. In sum, what was initially a primitive system for short-term prediction in perception has evolved to perform abstract thought, store and retrieve memory, understand others, hold embedded action plans, build stable narratives, simulate scenarios, and integrate context dependence into perception. Crucially, emulators co-evolved with the emergence of societies, producing a mind-society system in which emulators are dysfunctional unless integrated into a society, which enables their complexity. The Target Emulator System, evolved initially for honest signaling, produces the emergent dynamics of the mind-society system and spreads variation-testing of behavior and thought patterns across a population. The human brain is the most dysfunctional in isolation, but the most effective given its context.

scholarly journals The Biography of an Algorithm: Performing algorithmic technologies in organizations

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 263178772110046
Author(s):  
Vern L. Glaser ◽  
Neil Pollock ◽  
Luciana D’Adderio
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Capabilities ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Organizational Decision Making ◽  
Computational Tools ◽  
Dynamic Perspective ◽  
Over Time

Algorithms are ubiquitous in modern organizations. Typically, researchers have viewed algorithms as self-contained computational tools that either magnify organizational capabilities or generate unintended negative consequences. To overcome this limited understanding of algorithms as stable entities, we propose two moves. The first entails building on a performative perspective to theorize algorithms as entangled, relational, emergent, and nested assemblages that use theories—and the sociomaterial networks they invoke—to automate decisions, enact roles and expertise, and perform calculations. The second move entails building on our dynamic perspective on algorithms to theorize how algorithms evolve as they move across contexts and over time. To this end, we introduce a biographical perspective on algorithms which traces their evolution by focusing on key “biographical moments.” We conclude by discussing how our performativity-inspired biographical perspective on algorithms can help management and organization scholars better understand organizational decision-making, the spread of technologies and their logics, and the dynamics of practices and routines.

scholarly journals A Bibliometric Network Analysis of Coronavirus during the First Eight Months of COVID-19 in 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 952 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo B. Furstenau ◽  
Bruna Rabaioli ◽  
Michele Kremer Sott ◽  
Danielli Cossul ◽  
Mariluza Sott Bender ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Damage Prevention ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Web

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all aspects of society. Researchers worldwide have been working to provide new solutions to and better understanding of this coronavirus. In this research, our goal was to perform a Bibliometric Network Analysis (BNA) to investigate the strategic themes, thematic evolution structure and trends of coronavirus during the first eight months of COVID-19 in the Web of Science (WoS) database in 2020. To do this, 14,802 articles were analyzed, with the support of the SciMAT software. This analysis highlights 24 themes, of which 11 of the more important ones were discussed in-depth. The thematic evolution structure shows how the themes are evolving over time, and the most developed and future trends of coronavirus with focus on COVID-19 were visually depicted. The results of the strategic diagram highlight ‘CHLOROQUINE’, ‘ANXIETY’, ‘PREGNANCY’ and ‘ACUTE-RESPIRATORY-SYNDROME’, among others, as the clusters with the highest number of associated citations. The thematic evolution. structure presented two thematic areas: “Damage prevention and containment of COVID-19” and “Comorbidities and diseases caused by COVID-19”, which provides new perspectives and futures trends of the field. These results will form the basis for future research and guide decision-making in coronavirus focused on COVID-19 research and treatments.

scholarly journals Longitudinal Patterns of Ethical Organisational Culture as a Context for Leaders’ Well-Being: Cumulative Effects Over 6 Years

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mari Huhtala ◽  
Muel Kaptein ◽  
Joona Muotka ◽  
Taru Feldt
Keyword(s):  
Latent Profile Analysis ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Ethical Dilemmas ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Organisational Culture ◽  
Cumulative Effects ◽  
Ethical Culture ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the temporal dynamics of ethical organisational culture and how it associates with well-being at work when potential changes in ethical culture are measured over an extended period of 6 years. We used a person-centred study design, which allowed us to detect both typical and atypical patterns of ethical culture stability as well as change among a sample of leaders. Based on latent profile analysis and hierarchical linear modelling we found longitudinal, concurrent relations and cumulative gain and loss cycles between different ethical culture patterns and leaders’ well-being. Leaders in the strongest ethical culture pattern experienced the highest level of work engagement and a decreasing level of ethical dilemmas and stress. Leaders who gave the lowest ratings on ethical culture which also decreased over time reported the highest level of ethical dilemmas, stress, and burnout. They also showed a continuous increase in these negative outcomes over time. Thus, ethical culture has significant cumulative effects on well-being, and these longitudinal effects can be both negative and positive, depending on the experienced strength of the culture’s ethicality.

scholarly journals Theology at Thresholds: Learning from a Practice ‘In Transition’

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Muers ◽  
Rhiannon Grant
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
The Other ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Theological Ethics ◽  
Reciprocal Influence ◽  
Core Practices ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Collective Process ◽  
The One ◽  
Over Time

Recent developments in contemporary theology and theological ethics have directed academic attention to the interrelationships of theological claims, on the one hand, and core community-forming practices, on the other. This article considers the value for theology of attending to practice at the boundaries, the margins, or, as we prefer to express it, the threshold of a community’s institutional or liturgical life. We argue that marginal or threshold practices can offer insights into processes of theological change – and into the mediation between, and reciprocal influence of, ‘church’ and ‘world’. Our discussion focuses on an example from contemporary British Quakerism. ‘Threshing meetings’ are occasions at which an issue can be ‘threshed out’ as part of a collective process of decision-making. Drawing on a 2015 small-scale study (using a survey and focus group) of British Quaker attitudes to and experiences of threshing meetings, set in the wider context of Quaker tradition, we interpret these meetings as a space for working through – in context and over time – tensions within Quaker theology, practice and self-understandings, particularly those that emerge within, and in relation to, core practices of Quaker decision-making.

scholarly journals Gender and payments for environmental services: impacts of participation, benefit-sharing and conservation activities in Viet Nam

Oryx ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Pamela McElwee ◽  
Huệ Thị Văn Lê ◽  
Tuyến Phương Nghiêm ◽  
Hương Diệu Vũ ◽  
Nghị Hữư Trần
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Benefit Sharing ◽  
Environmental Services ◽  
Viet Nam ◽  
Payments For Environmental Services ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Female Headed Households ◽  
Women Participation ◽  
Over Time

Abstract There has been a rapid expansion in the use of payments for environmental services (PES) as a key conservation finance policy. However, there is insufficient understanding of how gender can affect PES implementation and outcomes. We present results from a case study in Viet Nam, where a national PES programme has been in place for a decade. Through panel household survey data, focus groups and interviews, we examined how women have been involved in PES policies, what the impacts have been on decision-making by men and women, participation rates and use of PES income over time, and the potential conservation outcomes. Our research confirms that resource use varies between men and women, and changes in access rights can fall disproportionately on women. Participation in PES has been lower for female-headed households and for women within male-headed households, although gradually more equitable participation has evolved within households. Female-headed households reported expending more yearly effort on PES activities despite protecting less land, and also increased their conservation activities over time as they presumably became more familiar with PES. Use of income from PES also showed differences between male and female-led households, with men more likely to spend funds on non-essential goods. Within households, although men initially decided how to spend PES money, decision-making has become more equitable over time. We conclude with some recommendations on how to increase attention to gender in PES projects and future research to improve outcomes.

Pasture renewal in the Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions: An overview of farmer practice, experience and attitudes

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 21-24
Author(s):  
Kelly Smith ◽  
R. Brazendale
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Information Sources ◽  
Farm Management ◽  
Dairy Farmers ◽  
Practice Experience ◽  
Rate Information ◽  
And Performance ◽  
On Farm ◽  
Over Time

Pasture persistence and performance, and associated issues such as black beetle, are of central concern to dairy farmers. The Pasture Renewal Survey 2010 aimed to better understand farmers' confidence in their ability to make informed decisions on their pasture renewal practices, their satisfaction with the success of this decision-making and the performance of their renewed pastures over time. In addition, the survey investigated their attitudes to information sources and what barriers they saw to improving pasture performance on farm. A postal and online survey elicited responses from 776 dairy farmers in the Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions. The four main findings of the work were: 1. Farmers are more confident of their ability to make appropriate on-farm management decisions for renewed pasture than they are of their ability to choose appropriate cultivars and endophyte. 2. Farmers, while generally satisfied with their own success in renewing pasture, reported decreasing levels of satisfaction with renewed pastures over the 3 successive years following renewal. 3. Farmers do not rate information sources very highly in terms of their usefulness in relation to pasture renewal. 4. Weather-related issues and pest-related issues (particularly black beetle) were the most commonly identified barriers to improving pasture performance. Keywords: farmer confidence, farmer satisfaction, information sources, pasture renewal.

If You’re Happy and You Know it Stay Alert: The Effects of Lighting on Vigilance Performance and Affective State

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 854-858
Author(s):  
Lauren E. Monroe ◽  
Samantha L. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Affective State ◽  
Light Condition ◽  
Bright Light ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Light Therapy ◽  
Speed Of Information Processing ◽  
Attention Tasks ◽  
High Workload ◽  
Dim Light ◽  
Over Time

Vigilance, or sustained attention tasks involve detecting critical signals, embedded amid more frequent neutral signals, over an extended period of time. A decline in performance, engagement, and arousal over time, as well as high workload and stress, are common outcomes of such tasks. Exposure to broad-spectrum or short wavelength bright light has been found to positively impact alertness, speed of information processing, and mood, but has not been extensively explored in the vigilance domain. The present study explored whether a light therapy lamp could mitigate the negative vigilance outcomes found in both performance and affective state. Results indicated that the therapy light did not prevent a decline in detection of critical signals over time, nor significantly impact workload, sleepiness, or subjective stress state compared to a dim light condition. However, mood questionnaire results suggest that lighting may impact separate constructs of arousal and tiredness, warranting further research.

scholarly journals A Tutorial on Evaluating the Time-Varying Discrimination Accuracy of Survival Models Used in Dynamic Decision Making

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (8) ◽  
pp. 904-916 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aasthaa Bansal ◽  
Patrick J. Heagerty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Dynamic Decision Making ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Survival Models ◽  
Biliary Cirrhosis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Over Time

Many medical decisions involve the use of dynamic information collected on individual patients toward predicting likely transitions in their future health status. If accurate predictions are developed, then a prognostic model can identify patients at greatest risk for future adverse events and may be used clinically to define populations appropriate for targeted intervention. In practice, a prognostic model is often used to guide decisions at multiple time points over the course of disease, and classification performance (i.e., sensitivity and specificity) for distinguishing high-risk v. low-risk individuals may vary over time as an individual’s disease status and prognostic information change. In this tutorial, we detail contemporary statistical methods that can characterize the time-varying accuracy of prognostic survival models when used for dynamic decision making. Although statistical methods for evaluating prognostic models with simple binary outcomes are well established, methods appropriate for survival outcomes are less well known and require time-dependent extensions of sensitivity and specificity to fully characterize longitudinal biomarkers or models. The methods we review are particularly important in that they allow for appropriate handling of censored outcomes commonly encountered with event time data. We highlight the importance of determining whether clinical interest is in predicting cumulative (or prevalent) cases over a fixed future time interval v. predicting incident cases over a range of follow-up times and whether patient information is static or updated over time. We discuss implementation of time-dependent receiver operating characteristic approaches using relevant R statistical software packages. The statistical summaries are illustrated using a liver prognostic model to guide transplantation in primary biliary cirrhosis.

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