scholarly journals Levels and trends in sex ratio at birth in provinces of Pakistan from 1980 to 2020 with scenario-based missing female birth projections to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengqing Chao ◽  
Muhammad Asif Wazir ◽  
Hernando Ombao
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Sex Discrimination ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Female Birth ◽  
Child Mortality Rate ◽  
Birth Records ◽  
Male To Female ◽  
Postnatal Stage

BACKGROUND: Pakistan has a strong preference for boys over girls; previous evidence on sex preference is primarily reported at the postnatal stage in which the child mortality rate is higher for females than males. Prenatal sex discrimination in Pakistan, reflected in the inflated sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female births) has been barely mentioned before this study.OBJECTIVE: We estimate the SRB and missing female births in Pakistan provinces from 1980 to 2020 and identify provinces with imbalanced SRB. We provide scenario-based projections of missing female births in provinces without the existing SRB inflation.METHODS: An extensive SRB database of 832,091 birth records was compiled from all available surveys and censuses. To synthesize different data sources and provide annual estimates and their associated uncertainties of SRBs across provinces, we adopted a Bayesian hierarchical time series model.RESULTS: As per our model, Balochistan has had SRB imbalance since 1980. The maximum SRB was estimated as 1.121 (95% credible interval [1.066; 1.142]) in 1997. Assuming different start year of SRB inflation process in provinces without existing imbalance, the largest female birth deficit is projected to be 76.2 thousand in Punjab in 2033 when the SRB inflation starts in 2021.CONTRIBUTION: This is the first study on estimating the SRB from 1980 to 2020 and providing scenario-based projections of missing female births up to 2050 by Pakistan province. We identified the Balochistan province with imbalanced SRB and demonstrated important disparities in the occurrence and quantity of female birth deficits before 2050.

scholarly journals Projecting sex imbalances at birth at global, regional and national levels from 2021 to 2100: scenario-based Bayesian probabilistic projections of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births based on 3.26 billion birth records

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. e005516
Author(s):  
Fengqing Chao ◽  
Patrick Gerland ◽  
Alex Richard Cook ◽  
Christophe Z Guilmoto ◽  
Leontine Alkema
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Sex Discrimination ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Birth Records

IntroductionSkewed levels of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) due to sex-selective abortions have been observed in several countries since the 1970s. They will lead to long-term sex imbalances in more than one-third of the world’s population with yet unknown social and economic impacts on affected countries. Understanding the potential evolution of sex imbalances at birth is therefore essential for anticipating and planning for changing sex structures across the world.MethodsWe produced probabilistic SRB projections from 2021 to 2100 based on different scenarios of sex ratio transition and assessed their implications in terms of missing female births at global, regional and national levels. Based on a comprehensive SRB database with 3.26 billion birth records, we project the skewed SRB and missing female births with a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model. The SRB projections under reference scenario S1 assumed SRB transitions only for countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB inflation, and the more extreme scenario S2 assumed a sex ratio transition for countries at risk of SRB inflation but with no or limited evidence of ongoing inflation.ResultsUnder scenario S1, we projected 5.7 (95% uncertainty interval (1.2; 15.3)) million additional missing female births to occur by 2100. Countries affected will be those already affected in the past by imbalanced SRB, such as China and India. If all countries at risk of SRB inflation experience a sex ratio transition as in scenario S2, the projected missing female births increase to 22.1 (12.2; 39.8) million with a sizeable contribution of sub-Saharan Africa.ConclusionThe scenario-based projections provide important illustrations of the potential burden of future prenatal sex discrimination and the need to monitor SRBs in countries with son preference. Policy planning will be needed in the years to come to minimise future prenatal sex discrimination and its impact on social structures.

scholarly journals Sex ratio at birth in Vietnam among six subnational regions during 1990–2050, estimation and probabilistic projection using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengqing Chao ◽  
Christophe Z. Guilmoto ◽  
Hernando Ombao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Local Maximum ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Red River ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Red River Delta ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical

The sex ratio at birth (SRB, i.e., the ratio of male to female births) in Vietnam has been imbalanced since the 2000s. Previous studies have revealed a rapid increase in the SRB over the past 15 years and the presence of important variations across regions. More recent studies suggested that the nation’s SRB may have plateaued during the 2010s. Given the lack of exhaustive birth registration data in Vietnam, it is necessary to estimate and project levels and trends in the regional SRBs in Vietnam based on a reproducible statistical approach. We compiled an extensive database on regional Vietnam SRBs based on all publicly available surveys and censuses and used a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model to estimate and project SRB in Vietnam by region from 1980 to 2050. The Bayesian model incorporates the uncertainties from the observations and year-by-year natural fluctuation. It includes a binary parameter to detect the existence of sex ratio transitions among Vietnamese regions. Furthermore, we model the SRB imbalance using a trapezoid function to capture the increase, stagnation, and decrease of the sex ratio transition by Vietnamese regions. The model results show that four out of six Vietnamese regions, namely, Northern Midlands and Mountain Areas, Northern Central and Central Coastal Areas, Red River Delta, and South East, have existing sex imbalances at birth. The rise in SRB in the Red River Delta was the fastest, as it took only 12 years and was more pronounced, with the SRB reaching the local maximum of 1.146 with a 95% credible interval (1.129, 1.163) in 2013. The model projections suggest that the current decade will record a sustained decline in sex imbalances at birth, and the SRB should be back to the national SRB baseline level of 1.06 in all regions by the mid-2030s.

scholarly journals Sex ratio at birth in Vietnam among six subnational regions during 1980–2050, estimation and probabilistic projection using a Bayesian hierarchical time series model with 2.9 million birth records

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0253721
Author(s):  
Fengqing Chao ◽  
Christophe Z. Guilmoto ◽  
Hernando Ombao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Local Maximum ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Red River ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Red River Delta ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical

The sex ratio at birth (SRB, i.e., the ratio of male to female births) in Vietnam has been imbalanced since the 2000s. Previous studies have revealed a rapid increase in the SRB over the past 15 years and the presence of important variations across regions. More recent studies suggested that the nation’s SRB may have plateaued during the 2010s. Given the lack of exhaustive birth registration data in Vietnam, it is necessary to estimate and project levels and trends in the regional SRBs in Vietnam based on a reproducible statistical approach. We compiled an extensive database on regional Vietnam SRBs based on all publicly available surveys and censuses and used a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model to estimate and project SRB in Vietnam by region from 1980 to 2050. The Bayesian model incorporates the uncertainties from the observations and year-by-year natural fluctuation. It includes a binary parameter to detect the existence of sex ratio transitions among Vietnamese regions. Furthermore, we model the SRB imbalance using a trapezoid function to capture the increase, stagnation, and decrease of the sex ratio transition by Vietnamese regions. The model results show that four out of six Vietnamese regions, namely, Northern Midlands and Mountain Areas, Northern Central and Central Coastal Areas, Red River Delta, and South East, have existing sex imbalances at birth. The rise in SRB in the Red River Delta was the fastest, as it took only 12 years and was more pronounced, with the SRB reaching the local maximum of 1.146 with a 95% credible interval (1.129, 1.163) in 2013. The model projections suggest that the current decade will record a sustained decline in sex imbalances at birth, and the SRB should be back to the national SRB baseline level of 1.06 in all regions by the mid-2030s.

scholarly journals Projecting sex imbalances at birth at global, regional, and national levels from 2018 to 2100: scenario-based Bayesian probabilistic projections of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengqing Chao ◽  
Patrick Gerland ◽  
Alex R. Cook ◽  
Christophe Z. Guilmoto ◽  
Leontine Alkema
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Sex Discrimination ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
To Come

Introduction: Skewed levels of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) due to sex-selective abortions have been observed in several countries since the 1970s. They will lead to long-term sex imbalances in more than a third of the world’s population with yet unknown social and economic impacts on affected countries. Understanding the potential evolution of sex imbalances at birth is therefore essential for anticipating and planning for changing sex structures across the world. Methods: We produced probabilistic SRB projections from 2018 to 2100 based on different scenarios of sex ratio transition and assessed their implications in terms of missing female births at global, regional, and national levels. Based on a comprehensive SRB database, we project the skewed SRB and missing female births with a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model. The SRB projections under reference scenario S1 assumed SRB transitions only for countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB inflation, and the more extreme scenario S2 assumed a sex ratio transition for countries at risk of SRB inflation but with no or limited evidence of ongoing inflation.Results: Under scenario S1, we projected 8.1 (95% uncertainty interval [2.3; 19.6]) million additional missing female births to occur by 2100. Countries affected will be those already affected in the past by imbalanced SRB, such as China and India. If all countries at risk of SRB inflation experience a sex ratio transition as in scenario S2, the projected missing female births increase to 24.8 [13.1; 44.1] million with a sizeable contribution of sub-Saharan Africa.Conclusion: The scenario-based projections provide important illustrations of the potential burden of future prenatal sex discrimination and the need to monitor SRBs in countries with son preference. Policy planning will be needed in the years to come to minimize future prenatal sex discrimination and its impact on social structures.

scholarly journals The Effect of China’s Two-Child Policy on the Child Sex Ratio: Evidence From Shanghai, China

2022 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 004695802110679
Author(s):  
Di Tang ◽  
Xiangdong Gao ◽  
Jiaoli Cai ◽  
Peter. C. Coyte
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Pregnancy Status ◽  
The One ◽  
Male To Female ◽  
Municipal Level

Objective: The bias towards males at birth has resulted in a major imbalance in the Chinese sex ratio that is often attributed to China’s one-child policy. Relaxation of the one-child policy has the potential to reduce the imbalance in the sex ratio away from males. In this study, we assessed whether the bias towards males in the child sex ratio was reduced as a result of the two-child policy in China. Medical records data from one large municipal-level obstetrics hospital in Shanghai, East China. Design: Matching and difference-in-differences (MDID) techniques were used to investigate the effect of the two-child policy on the imbalance in the sex ratio at birth after matching for pregnancy status and socioeconomic factors. Results: Analyzing 133,358 live births suggest that the relaxation of the one-child policy had a small, but statistically significant effect in reducing the imbalance in the male to female sex ratio at birth. Conclusion: The results demonstrate that relaxation of the one-child policy reduced the imbalance in the male to female sex ratio at birth from 1.10 to 1.05 over the study period at one of the major obstetrics and gynecology hospitals in China.

scholarly journals Sex Preferences Among Mothers Delivering at Patan Hospital

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 229-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
U D Chhetri ◽  
I Ansari ◽  
S Bhandary ◽  
N Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Previous History ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Sex Selection ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Female Birth ◽  
Old Age Security ◽  
Sex Preferences ◽  
History Of ◽  
A Prospective Study

Background High sex ratios at birth (SRB) are seen in China, Taiwan, South Korea, parts of India and Vietnam. The imbalance is the result of son preference, accentuated by declining fertility. Prenatal sex determination and female feticides are common in many countries. It is reflected in sex ratio Objective To determine reasons for the preferences for different sex; to find out whether there is altered sex ratio at birth and to find out whether female feticide are common among women who had abortion. Method It is a prospective study. Women who had previous history of abortion and had delivered at Patan Hospital in the year 2066 were interviewed as per questionnaires. Results Among 560 women with total live births of 965, (462 male and 503 female) during their life time the overall sex ratio was 92 male per 100 female birth; total abortions were 663. Preferences for male were 10%, female 15.4% and either was for 74%. The reason for male preference was to continue family lineage, to bring honor, old age security, and performing funeral rites while the reasons for daughter preferences were that they understand mother’s pain, help in household work. The sex ratio of the babies born during the study period was 113 male per 100 female births. The Sex ratio at birth from 1st to 6th deliveries was 61, 79, 101, 210, 286 and 1100 male per 100 female birth respectively. Prenatal sex selection was 8% (by USG) but none had sex selected abortion. ConclusionSex ratio of those delivered during the study period was skewed (136 boys per 100 girls) towards male. There was shift in SRB in 4th and subsequent pregnancies in favor of boys. As the male sex ratio increased the number of induced abortion decreased in subsequent pregnancies.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/kumj.v9i4.6334 Kathmandu Univ Med J 2011;9(4):229-232 

scholarly journals Sex-specific deaths in Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic: Did mandates make a difference?

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110100
Author(s):  
Ralph Catalano
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Risky Behavior ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Sex Ratios ◽  
Female Mortality ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Societal Expectations ◽  
Male To Female

Aims: To determine whether differences between Norway’s and Sweden’s attempts to contain SARS-CoV-2 infection coincided with detectably different changes in their all-cause mortality sex ratios. Measuring temporal variation in the all-cause mortality sex ratio before and during the pandemic in populations exposed to different constraints on risky behavior would allow us to better anticipate changes in the ratio and to better understand its association with infection control strategies. Methods: I apply time Box–Jenkins modeling to 262 months of pre-pandemic mortality sex ratios to arrive at counterfactual values of 10 intra-pandemic ratios. I compare counterfactual to observed values to determine if intra-pandemic ratios differed detectably from those expected as well as whether the Norwegian and Swedish differences varied from each other. Results: The male to female mortality sex ratio in both Norway and Sweden increased during the pandemic. I, however, find no evidence that the increase differed between the two countries despite their different COVID-19 containment strategies. Conclusion: Societal expectations of who will die during the COVID-19 pandemic will likely be wrong if they assume pre-pandemic mortality sex ratios because the intra-pandemic ratios appear, at least in Norway and Sweden, detectably higher. The contribution of differences in policies to reduce risky behavior to those higher ratios appears, however, small.

scholarly journals Recent sex ratio at birth in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. e005438
Author(s):  
Quanbao Jiang ◽  
Cuiling Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Normal Level ◽  
Decomposition Methods ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Female Fetus ◽  
The Past ◽  
Multiple Data ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Second Births

BackgroundChina’s sex ratio at birth (SRB) has declined in the past decade but still exceeds the normal level. This study seeks to depict the SRB trend in the past two decades.MethodsWe depicted the SRB trend, including SRB by birth order, children composition, residence and hukou type, education, race and province using latest data available from multiple data sources and standardisation and decomposition methods.ResultsThe SRB remained around 120 in the first decade from 2000 to 2010, and recently declined and approached the normal level during 2010–2020. The SRB for second births and first births converged to the normal level, whereas the SRB for third and above births exceeded the normal level. The rising proportion of second births increased, whereas the decreasing proportion of first births reduced the overall SRB. Parents with only daughters are more likely to abort a female fetus in pursuit of a son, while parents with only sons are more likely to abort a male fetus in pursuit of a daughter. It also shows difference in SRB by residence, hukou type, educational attainment and race. Urban SRB was lower than rural SRB, by the residence and hukou type, but higher than rural SRB after being standardised. Provinces still exhibit differences by original categorised policy even after the implementation of the universal two-child policy.ConclusionsChina’s SRB has declined substantially during the past two decades, but the negative effects need to be tackled.

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