Bi-Directional Feedback to the Welfare State and Public Opinion
Policy feedback between public opinion and social policy is likely bi-directional. At least theory suggests. However, most research uses a uni-directional model. By conceiving the relationship as bi-directional it is possible to extend Pierson’s increasing returns theory to the neoliberal era, mostly after the 1980s, when welfare states of the rich democracies saw many forms of retrenchment. By testing a bi-directional theory using bi-directional models, this paper argues that public opinion likely updated in response to retrenchment and contributes to a new lock-in effect of institutionalized retrenchment paths. The models use ISSP data and a measure of the size of the welfare state based on SOCX spending data combined with a neoliberal indicator form the Fraser institute for the period 1990-2016 across the rich democracies for which data are available.