The Unintended Effect of Paternity Leave on Union Stability: Evidence from the Quebec Parental Insurance Program
The transition to parenthood is often stressful, as parents balance work and family responsibilities and adjust to new social roles. Paid parental benefits policies are explicitly aimed to encourage return-to-work and enhance infant health. However, some recent policies also aim to equalize housework and paid work within families by earmarking weeks of parental benefits for fathers that cannot be transferred to mothers. We examine two theoretical frameworks from sociology and economics to highlight potential mechanisms through which such policies may increase or decrease union dissolution, and why the direction and magnitude of the effects might differ across subpopulations. Then, using population-level administrative data, we examine how the Quebec Parental Insurance Program affected union dissolution. We find that overall, the policy decreased the divorce/separation rate by 0.6% points, a 7% reduction in the rate overall (intent-to-treat). Further, we find that the effect of fathers using parental benefits on the risk of divorce (treatment-on-treated) is more than double the intent-to-treat estimate. The policy had the greatest effects in reducing union dissolution among couples likely to be more egalitarian in orientation, and led to no increase in divorce, even in the most traditional couples.