Ewolucja metod analizy skutków integracji handlowej

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Jakub Michałek
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Public Discourse ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Trade Expansion ◽  
Cge Models ◽  
Ex Post

The theory of economic integration dates back to the mid-20th century. In the 1970s, initial empirical studies on the effects of economic integration appeared during the first stage of the functioning of the customs union in the European Economic Community. Researchers mostly highlighted the customs union’s static effects: trade creation, trade expansion, and trade diversion. The gravity model of trade became the basic econometric model for the ex-post analysis of the effects of economic integration, usually implying the positive impact of the integration on the trade flow. However, the expansion of integration and the trade negotiations created a need for the ex-ante analysis of the effects of such activities. To this end, the simulation models were developed, in particular computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Such models allow for the analysis of how the economy might react to the changes; however, their complexity limits their usability in public discourse.

EU-Turkey Customs Union and Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment Flows

2016 ◽  
pp. 265-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Marszk
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
The Third

Main aim of this text is presentation of the effects of customs union between the European Union and turkey on bilateral FDI flows in light of the theory of linkages between economic integration and FDI flows. First section of the text is a survey of main theoretical links between economic integration and FDI flows. Second section focuses on the history and scope of the customs union. Third and fourth sections are empirical and are devoted to presentation of the results of analysis of FDI inflows to the European Union and turkey, including main trends and impact of the economic integration. According to the results of the conducted research, FDI inflow to both sides of the agreement increased substantially. Intraregional FDI flows grew since the formation of the union which may be attributed to the positive impact of reduction of trade barriers and access to enlarged markets as well as linked changes in the turkey's legislation. FDI inflow from the third countries also increased.

scholarly journals The Issue of Macroeconomic Closure Revisited and Extended

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Ernő Zalai ◽  
Tamás Révész
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Competitive Equilibrium ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Sector Model ◽  
Cge Models ◽  
Policy Simulations

Léon Walras (1874) had already realised that his neo-classical general equilibrium model could not accommodate autonomous investments. In the early 1960s, Amartya Sen analysed the same issue in a simple, one-sector macroeconomic model of a closed economy. He showed that fixing investment in the model, built strictly on neo-classical assumptions, would make the system overdetermined, and thus one should loosen some neo-classical conditions of competitive equilibrium. He analysed three not neo-classical “closure options”, which could make the model well-determined in the case of fixed investment. His list was later extended by others and it was shown that the closure dilemma arises in the more complex computable general equilibrium (CGE) models as well, as does the choice of adjustment mechanism assumed to bring about equilibrium at the macro level. It was also illustrated through several numerical models that the adopted closure rule can significantly affect the results of policy simulations based on a CGE model. Despite these warnings, the issue of macro closure is often neglected in policy simulations. It is, therefore, worth revisiting the issue and demonstrating by further examples its importance, as well as pointing out that the closure problem in the CGE models extends well beyond the problem of how to incorporate autonomous investments into a CGE model. Several closure rules are discussed in this paper and their diverse outcomes are illustrated by numerical models calibrated on statistical data. First, the analyses are done in a one-sector model, similar to Sen’s, but extended into a model of an open economy. Next, the same analyses are repeated using a fully-fledged multi-sectoral CGE model, calibrated on the same statistical data. Comparing the results obtained by the two models it is shown that although they generate quite similar results in terms of the direction and — to a somewhat lesser extent — of the magnitude of change in the main macro variables using the same closure option, the predictions of the multi-sectoral CGE model are clearly more realistic and balanced.

scholarly journals Patent Value and Survival of Patents

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Jung-Tae Hwang ◽  
Byung-Keun Kim ◽  
Eui-Seob Jeong
Keyword(s):  
Family Size ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
European Patent ◽  
Patent Data ◽  
Patent Value ◽  
Traditional Family ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Family ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Private Value

This study investigated the effect of patent value on the renewal (survival) of patents. The private value of patents can be one of the main pillars sustaining a firm’s value, and the estimation of the value may contribute to the strategic management of firms. The current study aimed to confirm the recent research findings with survival analysis, focusing on the more homogeneous patent data samples. In this study, a dataset is constructed from a cohort of 6646 patents from the 1996 and 1997 application years, using patent data from the European Patent Office (EPO). We found that the family size and non-patent backward citations exhibited profound impacts on patent survival. This result is in line with numerous studies, indicating the positive impact of science linkages in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical fields. It was also found that the effect of the ex-post indicator is not as strong as the ex-ante indicators, like traditional family size and backward citations. In short, the family size matters most for the survival of patents, according to the current research.

scholarly journals The Urbanisation Impacts on the Policy Effects of the Carbon Tax in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6749
Author(s):  
Shuyang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Evaluation Framework ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag

In the literature, very few studies have focused on how urbanisation will influence the policy effects of a climate policy even though urbanisation does have profound socioeconomic impacts. This paper has explored the interrelations among the urbanisation, carbon emissions, GDP, and energy consumption in China using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Then, the unit urbanisation impacts are inputted into the policy evaluation framework of the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in 2015–2030. The results show that the urbanisation had a positive impact on the GDP but a negative impact on the carbon emissions in 1980–2014. These impacts were statistically significant, but its impact on the energy consumption was not statistically significant. In 2015–2030, the urbanisation will have negative impacts on the carbon emissions and intensity. It will decrease the GDP and the household welfare under the carbon tax. The urbanisation will increase the average social cost of carbon (ASCC). Hence, the urbanisation will reinforce the policy effects of the carbon tax on the emissions and welfare.

Explanation information and source in service recovery initiatives

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 311-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Baker ◽  
Tracy Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Source Credibility ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Service Failure ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Service Recovery ◽  
Positive Outcome ◽  
Frontline Employees ◽  
Full Account ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Service Failure And Recovery

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to specifically consider two interactional aspects that are likely to contribute to the success of an explanation of why a service failed: the adequacy of information provided and role of the person providing the information. Design/methodology/approach – Two empirical studies were conducted using a between-subjects 2 (information: low vs high) × 2 (employee: frontline vs manager) experimental design. The first study was designed to better understand when the information provided might have a more positive impact on the customer. The second study was conducted to understand why the effects exist. Findings – In Study 1, an interaction effect was seen that suggests that the most positive outcome is when the manager (vs the frontline employee) provides a full explanation (vs limited explanation) of the mishap. Results from Study 2 indicate that source credibility is in play. Research limitations/implications – Participants were asked to respond to service failure and recovery scenarios using the same service context. The means of the outcome variables suggest that the recovery effort could be improved upon with other methods. Practical implications – Contrary to suggestions that frontline employees be responsible to resolve service failures, our studies reveal that service recovery initiatives involving an explanation only are best received when the manager provides the customer a full account of what went wrong. Originality/value – This research provides empirical evidence of when and why more information regarding the cause of a service failure is most positively received by the customer.

POWERPOINT IN HIGHER EDUCATION: DEVELOPMENT, TRANSFORMATION AND THE PRESENT STATE

2021 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-103
Author(s):  
Alexander R. Polyanin ◽  
◽  
Sergey N. Korotun ◽  
Dmitry A. Baranov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Present State ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Education Development ◽  
Technical Application ◽  
Higher Education Development ◽  
Marketing Environment ◽  
Classroom Time ◽  
Education Process

PowerPoint appeared over 35 years ago and has taken a firm place in education. The massive use of the program began in the mid-90s. The program has gone from an interesting technological novelty to an irreplaceable element of a modern lecture. Such a rapid introduction into ed-ucation took place without extensive empirical studies of a positive impact of this program, the initial scope of which was the marketing environment, on the education process. The article in-dicates that PowerPoint already in the late 1990s was subjected to certain criticism, the initial reasons for which were its technological imperfection, problems of its technical application. Over the decades, the program has undergone a number of modernizations, which, together with the development of demonstration technologies, has brought it today to a qualitatively new level. However, even today PowerPoint continues to raise questions from researchers. A sepa-rate problem was the question of the expediency of such massive use of the program, which today seeks to fill 100% of the classroom time. Most of the guides for using the program do not take into account the specifics of the use of slides and are aimed at the implementation of design rather than pedagogical tasks. The problem of stimulating audience activity at lectures using this program has not been solved yet.

Three essays on the commercialization of university discoveries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Hao Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Project Selection ◽  
University Of Missouri ◽  
Type 1 Error ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The University ◽  
Type 2 Error

[ACCESS RESTRICTED TO THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI AT REQUEST OF AUTHOR.] Universities commercialize their discoveries at an increasing pace in order to maximize their economic impact and generate additional funding for research. They form technology transfer offices (TTOs) to evaluate the commercial value of university inventions and choose the most promising ones to patent and commercialize. Uncertainties and asymmetric information in project selection make the TTO choices difficult and can cause both type 1 error (forgo valuable discoveries) and type 2 error (select low-value discoveries). In this dissertation, I examine the TTO's project selection process and the factors that influence the choice of academic inventions for patenting and commercialization, the type 1 error committed, and the final licensing outcome. The dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay, I analyze project selection under uncertainty when both the quality of the proposed project and the motives of the applicant are uncertain. Some inventors may have an incentive to disguise the true quality and commercial value of their discoveries in order to conform to organizational expectations of disclosure while retaining rights to potentially pursue commercialization of their discoveries outside the organization's boundaries for their own benefit. Inventors may equally, ex post, lose interest to the commercialization of their invention due to competing job demands. I develop a model to examine the decision process of a university TTO responsible for the commercialization of academic inventions under such circumstances. The model describes the conditions that prompt Type 1 and Type 2 errors and allows for inferences for minimizing each. Little is known about the factors that make project selection effective or the opposite and there has been limited empirical analysis in this area. The few empirical studies that are available, examine the sources of type 2 error but there is no empirical work that analyzes type 1 error and the contributing factors. Research on type 1 error encounters two main difficulties. First, it is difficult to ascertain the decision process and second, it is challenging to approximate the counterfactual. Using data from the TTO of the University of Missouri, in the second essay I study the factors that influence the project selection process of the TTO in and the ex post type 1 error realized. In most cases, universities pursue commercialization of their inventions through licensing. There have been a few empirical studies that have researched the factors that affect licensing and their relative importance. In the third essay, I examine the characteristics of university inventions that are licensed using almost 10 years of data on several hundred of inventions, their characteristics, and the licensing status.

scholarly journals Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform in the Developing World: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why?

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 180-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Coxhead ◽  
Corbett Grainger
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Fossil fuel subsidies are widespread in developing countries, where reform efforts are often derailed by disputes over the likely distribution of gains and losses. The impacts of subsidy reform are transmitted to households through changes in energy prices and prices of other goods and services, as well as through factor earnings. Most empirical studies focus on consumer expenditures alone, and computable general equilibrium analyses typically report only total effects without decomposing them by source. Meanwhile, analytical models neglect important open-economy characteristics relevant to developing countries. In this paper, we develop an analytical model of a small open economy with a preexisting fossil fuel subsidy and identify direct and indirect impacts of subsidy reform on real household incomes. Our results, illustrated with data from Viet Nam, highlight two important drivers of distributional change: (i) the mix of tradable and nontradable goods, reflecting the structure of a trade-dependent economy; and (ii) household heterogeneity in sources of factor income.

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