scholarly journals ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ТРАЄКТОРІЇ НАЦІОНАЛЬНОГО ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО РОЗВИТКУ МЕТОДАМИ ГАРМОНІЙНОГО І СПЕКТРАЛЬНОГО АНАЛІЗУ

Economical ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1(22)) ◽  
pp. 115-131
Author(s):  
Ірина Кладченко ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Systems Development ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Current Phase ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
National Economic ◽  
National Economies ◽  
Oscillating Processes

Improving of the methodological tools for the national economies behavior’s forecasting in the context of increasing the validity and analytical characteristics of state economic strategies in conditions of high volatility, lack of trend stability and non-stationary dynamics of external and internal socio-economic processes by implementing interdisciplinary methods of Fourier analysis and their adaptation to the specifics of the socio-economic systems’ functioning and development. Methodology. The forecasting’s targeting as an important independent stage in the process of analytical assessment of the balance of development is performed on the basis of structuring, division into stages, systematization, and grouping. Justification of the interdisciplinary approach for forecasting of national economic system’s development is carried out by methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison and practical testing. Establishment of the economic dynamics’ structural regularities and forecasting of a trajectory of national economy development are executed by harmonic and spectral analysis of the dynamic systems’ fluctuating processes. The results. The paper’s attention is focused on the specific features of macroeconomic dynamics’ time series as a basis for the forecasting of national economies development, namely their short duration, non-stationary, aperiodic, polyharmonic and their impact on the formation of adequate methodological support for forecasting. The possibility and efficiency of spectral and harmonic methods using for analysis oscillating processes of national economic system’s development are substantiated. A harmonic model of Ukraine's economic development’s trajectory during 1991-2020 is formed, which allowed to analyze the fluctuating component of the macroeconomic indicators’ dynamics on the basis of actual data that included all the initial information contained in the time series. By distinguishing economic cycles, their amplitude-frequency characteristics, the current phase of Ukrainian economy’s development is characterized. On the basis of the economic dynamics’ model, being used the indicator of annual GDP growth, forecasting is executed and short-term, average-term and long-term tendencies Ukraine’s economy’s development are established. Scientific novelty. The extending of theoretical and methodological tools for forecasting of main trends in national economies, based on harmonic and spectral analysis, is allowed to form a structural approach to the analysis of economic dynamics in the context of selection of its decisive harmonics and basing on their characteristics to make conclusions about the current level and projected national economic systems’ development. Practical significance. The adapted and regulated procedure of harmonic and spectral analysis of socio-economic systems’ oscillating processes became the basis for forecasting the level, rates and proportions of national economic systems development.

Kondratieff Cycles in Developed Economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 9-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The 19Th Century

The objective of this paper is to identify Kondratieff cycles in the developed economies. Time series spectral analysis of real per capita GDP of the developed countries and Brazil is performed. Also studied are time series for the period from the 19th century to 2008. As a result Kondratieff cycles (waves) are found out in the economic dynamics of all the countries surveyed, except for Finland. The power of Kondratieff cycles in the economic dynamics is estimated to fall in the range of 23 to 61% of the total power of all economic cycles with the periods of 2 to 100 years. The Kondratieff cycles can be found in a number of economies in the period of 19th — 20th centuries. It allows to distinguish the three moderntime Kondratieff waves in the said countries and to evaluate productivity of the fourth, the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies. However in a number of countries the Kondratieff cycles show up only in the 20th century. So for these countries only one or two modern Kondratieff waves can be clearly identified, making it possible to evaluate productivity of only the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies.

Transformation of economic systems in countries with emerging markets: the phenomenon of hybrid state capitalism — what is forward?

2021 ◽  
pp. 852-869
Author(s):  
Arkady Vladimirovich Martynov
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
General Process ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Dominant State ◽  
The Face ◽  
National Economies

The article is devoted to the actual and complex topic of the economic transformation of a number of countries with emerging (growing) markets, which are distinguished by a hybrid systemic structure with a dominant state-capitalist order. A retrospective of the transformation of the entire enclave of emerging market economies in a large number of countries has described. On this ground, the author analyzes the process of the reproduction of economic systems, distinguished by the dominant state-capitalist order, in a separate conglomerate of post-developing and post-socialist countries in the last ten-year period. According to the author, the observed tremendous increase in demand and at the same time in prices for commodities after the peak of the Pandemic in non-Western countries is temporary. It will soon exhaust itself in the face of rapid progress in the efficiency of resource consumption in the largest producing countries, primarily in China and India, and the rapid general process of decarbonization in the world economy. In the future, the fundamental factors of national economic development will play a decisive role. With regard to the conglomerate of considered national economies, the most significant fundamental competitive advantage, at least in a five-year perspective, presents still the preservation of a relatively low cost of production factors. Based on the author’s argumentation and the available research results, a vision of the near and longterm prospects for the transformation of such national economies has supposed. The main conclusion concerns the possibility of successful adaptation of the considered national economic systems to the expected fundamental changes, including those associated with the transition to economic and overall social sustainable development.

scholarly journals Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ghil ◽  
P. Yiou ◽  
S. Hallegatte ◽  
B. D. Malamud ◽  
P. Naveau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Coupled Modeling ◽  
Discrete Part

Abstract. We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction. Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.

Destructive of deviation and economic deprivation of innovative development of enterprises of Ukraine: displays and possibilities of leveling

2018 ◽  
pp. 57-72
Author(s):  
Irina Tkachenko ◽  
Maryna Lysytsia ◽  
Viktoria Sektymenko
Keyword(s):  
Modern World ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Innovative Development ◽  
Economic Deprivation ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Innovative Products ◽  
Economic State ◽  
Innovative Potential ◽  
State Of Affairs

Strategy of successful development of the national economic systems of countries-leaders the last years is closely related to leadership in research-anddevelopments, by appearance of new knowledge, development of hi-tech production and creation of mass innovative products. Development of innovative potential is not only a way of dynamic development and success but also backer-up of safety and sovereignty of country, to her competitiveness in the modern world. The necessity of introduction in Ukraine of європейських standards of life and exit of Ukraine on leading positions in the world defined the aim of Strategy of steady development «Ukraine 2020» approved by Decree of President of Ukraine № 5/2015 from January, 12, 2015 and plans of operating under implementation of Agreement about an association from ЕС, by the obligations of Ukraine in relation to the achievement of national Aims of steady development on a period 2030 to The basic displays of origin of economic deprivation and destructive deviation of innovative development of enterprises, lighted up questions that touch maintenance and ways of improvement of strategic management of enterprises innovative activity in the system of institutional structure of forming of innovative behavior, are certain in the article. Reformation of economy of country must take place in the conditions of maintenance of certain calls and risks, in particular, it is a threat of escalation of the battle operating on east, authenticity of worsening of the external economic state of affairs on world commodity markets, migratory processes, braking, destructive deviation and депривація of investment activity. A human capital, and also knowledge and results of scientific researches, must become basis of the Ukrainian innovative competitiveness.

scholarly journals Assessing Stream-Aquifer Connectivity in a Coastal California Watershed

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 416
Author(s):  
Bwalya Malama ◽  
Devin Pritchard-Peterson ◽  
John J. Jasbinsek ◽  
Christopher Surfleet
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Low Permeability ◽  
Pumping Tests ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
The Impact

We report the results of field and laboratory investigations of stream-aquifer interactions in a watershed along the California coast to assess the impact of groundwater pumping for irrigation on stream flows. The methods used include subsurface sediment sampling using direct-push drilling, laboratory permeability and particle size analyses of sediment, piezometer installation and instrumentation, stream discharge and stage monitoring, pumping tests for aquifer characterization, resistivity surveys, and long-term passive monitoring of stream stage and groundwater levels. Spectral analysis of long-term water level data was used to assess correlation between stream and groundwater level time series data. The investigations revealed the presence of a thin low permeability silt-clay aquitard unit between the main aquifer and the stream. This suggested a three layer conceptual model of the subsurface comprising unconfined and confined aquifers separated by an aquitard layer. This was broadly confirmed by resistivity surveys and pumping tests, the latter of which indicated the occurrence of leakage across the aquitard. The aquitard was determined to be 2–3 orders of magnitude less permeable than the aquifer, which is indicative of weak stream-aquifer connectivity and was confirmed by spectral analysis of stream-aquifer water level time series. The results illustrate the importance of site-specific investigations and suggest that even in systems where the stream is not in direct hydraulic contact with the producing aquifer, long-term stream depletion can occur due to leakage across low permeability units. This has implications for management of stream flows, groundwater abstraction, and water resources management during prolonged periods of drought.

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