scholarly journals Differential equation analysis on COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-11
Author(s):  
Bin Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
Response Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background: An infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus called COVID-19 has raged across the world since December 2019. The novel coronavirus first appeared in Wuhan, China, and quickly spread to Asia and now many countries around the world are affected by the epidemic. The deaths of many patients, including medical staff, caused social panic, media attention, and high attention from governments and world organizations. Today, with the joint efforts of the government, the doctors and all walks of life, the epidemic in Hubei Province has been brought under control, preventing its spread from affecting the lives of the people. Because of its rapid spread and serious consequences, this sudden novel coronary pneumonia epidemic has become an important social hot spot event. Through the analysis of the novel coronary pneumonia epidemic situation, we can also have a better understanding of sudden infectious diseases in the future, so that we can take more effective response measures, establish a truly predictable and provide reliable and sufficient information for prevention and control model. Methods: We establish different models according to the different developments of the epidemic situation, different time points, and different response measures taken by the government. To be specific, during the period of 2020.1.23-2020.2.7, the traditional SIR model is adopted; during the period of 2020.2.8-2020.3.30, according to the scientific research results, it was considered that the novel coronary pneumonia has a latent period, so in the later phase of epidemic development, the government has effectively isolated patients, thus we adopt the SEIQR model accordingly. During the period of 2020.3.31-2020.5.16, because more asymptomatic infected people were found, we use the SEIQLR model to fit. Finally, through a SEIR simulator, considering the susceptible number, the latent number, the infected number, the cured number, death number and other factors, we simulate the change of various numbers of people from the beginning to the next 180 days of novel coronary pneumonia. Findings: The results based on the analysis of differential equations and kinetic models show that through the prediction of the model established in the first phase, the epidemic situation of novel coronary pneumonia in Hubei Province was controlled at the end of March, which is in line with the actual situation. The rest of Hubei province, except for Wuhan, lifted control of the departure channel from 0:00 am on March 25, and Wuhan was also unblocked on April 8. Through the establishment of the second-phase model, it is found that the epidemic situation will reach its peak in mid-February. For example, the quarantine admission of the hospital declined after mid-February, which is inseparable from the measures to build square cabin hospitals in early February so that more and more patients can be admitted. The model established in the third phase shows that the epidemic had been completely controlled by the end of May, which is also in line with the reality. Because in mid-May, the Wuhan government conducted a nucleic acid test on all the citizens to screen for asymptomatic infected persons to fundamentally control the spread of novel coronary pneumonia. Interpretation: Hubei Province, as the center of the initial outbreak of novel coronary pneumonia, people were forced to be isolated at home during the Spring Festival, the most important Chinese holiday, and the whole society was in a state of suspension of work and study. The Chinese government had taken many measures in response to the epidemic, such as shutting down the city, vigorously building square cabin hospitals, and prohibiting people from gathering. At the beginning of May this year, the epidemic in Hubei Province was finally effectively controlled. For ordinary citizens, we should not cause unnecessary panic about the unknown novel coronavirus. Instead, we should fully understand and be familiar with this virus. In addition to the relevant medical knowledge, we should also understand the spread of infectious diseases through appropriate mathematical models. By mathematical models, we can understand the degree of harm of infectious diseases, when to control it, how to stop it, and use scientific views to reveal the original face of the novel coronavirus to the public without causing social panic.

scholarly journals How to Dispose of Medical Waste Caused by COVID-19? A Case Study of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 12127
Author(s):  
Min Su ◽  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Rongrong Li
Keyword(s):  
Waste Disposal ◽  
Medical Waste ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Medical Institutions ◽  
Process System ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

The rapid increase in novel coronavirus (COVID-19) patients also means a rapid increase in medical waste that could carry the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). How to safely dispose of medical waste caused by COVID-19 is a huge challenge that needs to be solved urgently. The outbreak of the COVID-19 has led to a significant increase in the daily generation of medical waste in China and has placed a severe test on the Chinese medical waste disposal system. Unlike ordinary wastes and garbage, medical waste that is untreated or incompletely treated will not only cause environmental pollution, but also directly or indirectly cause infections and endanger people’s health. Faced with difficulties, the Chinese government formulated a policy for medical waste management and a response plan for the epidemic, which provides policy guarantee for the standardized disposal of epidemic medical waste. In addition, the government and medical institutions at all levels formed a comprehensive, refined, and standardized medical treatment process system during research and practice. China has increased the capacity of medical waste disposal in various places by constructing new centralized disposal centers and adding mobile disposal facilities. China has achieved good results in the fight against COVID-19, and the pressure on medical waste disposal has been relieved to a certain extent. However, the global epidemic situation is severe. How to ensure the proper and safe disposal of medical waste is related to the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. This study summarizes China’s experience in the disposal of medical waste in the special case of COVID-19 and hopes to provide some reference for other countries in the disposal of medical waste.

scholarly journals Differential Equation Analysis on COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Keyword(s):  
Hot Spot ◽  
Sufficient Information ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
The People ◽  
Equation Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

An infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus called COVID-19 has raged across the world since December 2019. The novel coronavirus first appeared in Wuhan, China, and quickly spread to Asia and now many countries around the world are affected by the epidemic. The deaths of many patients, including medical staff, caused social panic, media attention, and high attention from governments and world organizations. Today, with the joint efforts of the government, the doctors and all walks of life, the epidemic in Hubei Province has been brought under control, preventing its spread from affecting the lives of the people. Because of its rapid spread and serious consequences, this sudden novel coronary pneumonia epidemic has become an important social hot spot event. Through the analysis of the novel coronary pneumonia epidemic situation, we can also have a better understanding of sudden infectious diseases in the future, so that we can take more effective response measures, establish a truly predictable and provide reliable and sufficient information for prevention and control model.

scholarly journals The Socio-Economic Ramifications of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case of Ghana

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Rosemond Sam-Quarm ◽  
Richmond Sam-Quarm
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel, dreaded, disruptive, and disastrous Covid-19 pandemic took the world by storm in January, 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic in Ghana is part of the worldwide coronavirus disease caused by “severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2)”. On 12th January, 2020 the World Health Organisation (WHO) confirmed that the novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness that affected a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. This was reported to the WHO on 31st December, 2019. On 11th March, 2020, WHO declared the novel Covid-19 a global pandemic (Graphic Online, 2020a). It is worthy to note how the Government of Ghana, political parties, citizens, scientists and academia, corporate entities, faith based organisations, traditional rulers, have offered varied forms of interventions to combat the scourge. The Theoretical Framework of this research was underpinned by the Theory of Epidemics, the Agency Theory, the Rational Choice Theory, and the Stakeholder Theory. We conducted a cross-sectional research through non-probability and purposive sampling with 250 respondents. We also employed face-to-face interviews, structured closed-ended and open-ended Questionnaires (Braun and Clarke, 2012; Denzin, 2017), which were administered online through email application via Google Forms. One of our major findings was that with the approval of Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine by the UK’s MHRA on 1st December, 2020 (Graphic Online, 2020b); and subsequently by the US FDA a week later on 8th December, 2020 (Graphic Online, 2020c), all governments around the globe in general, but Africa in particular, must make conscious efforts backed by adequate budgetary allocations to secure maximum quantities of the vaccines for their vulnerable teeming population.

scholarly journals The Socio-Economic Ramifications of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case of Ghana

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Rosemond Sam-Quarm ◽  
Richmond Sam-Quarm
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel, dreaded, disruptive, and disastrous Covid-19 pandemic took the world by storm in January, 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic in Ghana is part of the worldwide coronavirus disease caused by “severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2)”. On 12th January, 2020 the World Health Organisation (WHO) confirmed that the novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness that affected a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. This was reported to the WHO on 31st December, 2019. On 11th March, 2020, WHO declared the novel Covid-19 a global pandemic (Graphic Online, 2020a). It is worthy to note how the Government of Ghana, political parties, citizens, scientists and academia, corporate entities, faith based organisations, traditional rulers, have offered varied forms of interventions to combat the scourge. The Theoretical Framework of this research was underpinned by the Theory of Epidemics, the Agency Theory, the Rational Choice Theory, and the Stakeholder Theory. We conducted a cross-sectional research through non-probability and purposive sampling with 250 respondents. We also employed face-to-face interviews, structured closed-ended and open-ended Questionnaires (Braun and Clarke, 2012; Denzin, 2017), which were administered online through email application via Google Forms. One of our major findings was that with the approval of Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine by the UK’s MHRA on 1st December, 2020 (Graphic Online, 2020b); and subsequently by the US FDA a week later on 8th December, 2020 (Graphic Online, 2020c), all governments around the globe in general, but Africa in particular, must make conscious efforts backed by adequate budgetary allocations to secure maximum quantities of the vaccines for their vulnerable teeming population.

scholarly journals Atmospheric factors and the incidence of novel coronavirus pneumonia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhixiang Ma ◽  
Xiangwei Meng ◽  
Xiyuan Li ◽  
Cai Chen ◽  
LeiLei Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Velocity ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Atmospheric Factors

Abstract The novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia (NCIP) was first recognized in December 2019 in Wuhan, China and then spread successively around the world. The epidemic has spread rapidly and aroused widespread concern and panic in China with more than 80 thousand recorded infections and over 3 thousand deaths by March 2020. We have examined the effects of atmospheric conditions on the incidence of NCIP in Wuhan, Hubei province. Our results indicate a significant correlation between the new confirmed NCIP case and maximum wind velocity (r2=0.713). Both mean temperature (r2=-0.691) and air pressure (r2=-0.503) have negative associations with daily new cases. The regression equation y = 4590.899 − 1.239𝑥𝑡 − 0.442𝑥𝑝 + 0.579𝑥𝑤 was derived to define the optimal climatic conditions for the NCIP epidemic. To verify these results, further investigations in other regions are necessary.

scholarly journals RESPONSES TO COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY: A SCENARIO OF BANGLADESH

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 254-262
Author(s):  
Popy Devnath ◽  
◽  
Imam Hossain ◽  
Mohammad Sharif Uddin ◽  
Md Hasibul Hossain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Review Article ◽  
Social Awareness ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Outbreak Situation

Emerging at the end of 2019 in China, novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infected millions and killed thousands of people across the globe. Like other South Asian countries such as India and Pakistan, Bangladesh is also struggling to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the first detection on March 2020, terrible touch of the corona had been inundated Bangladesh with a total of 5,661,926 suspected patients and reported 776,257 (13.7%) cases, 12,005 deaths (1.5% CFR), and an overall recovery of 715,321 (92%) cases as of May 11, 2020. In attempts to reduce the burden of corona cases in one of the most densely populated country of the world, the government has taken several initiatives. Bangladesh has been stepped up a large number of medical & testing facilities, manpower, social awareness campaigns, and has taken many initial steps to fight against COVID-19. This review article is focused on the overall outbreak situation, the preparedness of the government of Bangladesh as well as challenges and limitations faced by the country so far to tackle the novel coronavirus pandemic 2019.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Air Quality Levels in Samsun, Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Bahtiyar Efe
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Data Completeness ◽  
Daily Routines ◽  
First Case ◽  
Metropolitan Cities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Different Levels

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (hereafter COVID-19) has changed the daily routines of people around the world. The first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in December 2019, whilst it was confirmed on 11 March 2020 in Turkey. After the number of cases reached 4500 per day by 10 April, the government declared more restrictive lockdown measures for 31 metropolitan cities, which were implemented for the following weekends and national and religious holidays. The changes in the concentrations of CO, NOx, NO2 and PM10 during the period of these measures with respect to the pre-lockdown period and for different levels of measures for Samsun, the biggest city of the Karadeniz region, were investigated in this study. The daily mean concentrations of CO, NOx, NO2 and PM10 were obtained from Tekkekoy station due to it having data completeness greater than 95% for all pollutants. The average CO, NOx and NO2 concentrations during the lockdown period declined with respect to the pre-lockdown period, whilst PM10 increased by 3%. The average concentrations of all the pollutants decreased when the level of restrictions increased during the COVID-19 lockdown period. The number of days exceeding the WHO limit for PM10 was decreased during the lockdown period to 16 days with respect to the pre-lockdown period at 19 days. There was only a positive weak relationship between the mobility decrease rate and NO2 concentrations.

scholarly journals A Review on the Novel Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) in Bangladesh; Challenges and Initiatives

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Riajul Islam Sardar ◽  
Md. Shamim Hasan ◽  
Md. Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Effective Treatment ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Medical System ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infected Person ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Since the first coronavirus patient was identified in Bangladesh on March 8, the most controversial issue is about the exact level of the infection in Bangladesh. Conformity with the population density the number of COVID-19 tests is inadequate. As the number of tests increases, so does the number of infections, making it difficult to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. In this case, the unplanned initiatives are particularly responsible in other for unplanned measures, lack of public awareness, and lack of proper knowledge. In this case, the Ministry of Health has made three major mistakes, three important features of the medical system in Bangladesh have been mentioned. It is more effective to prevent COVID-19 by isolating the infected person by further testing COVID-19 until effective treatment is available and to provide adequate and effective masks and personal protective equipment (PPE). In this case, the COVID-19 testing kit invention has received a good response in many countries of the world. This study focuses on the comprehensive data verification, selection, and evaluation of COVID-19 in Bangladesh and its implications for the future, what to do to address and prevent the COVID-19 challenge, and effective treatment against the coronavirus (COVID-19). It is hopeful that the discussion of the material mentioned in this research paper will help to strike a balance between the government, citizens, and experts which will be feasible in improving the current situation in COVID-19 Bangladesh and reducing its severity.

scholarly journals Why Trusting Nigeria Centre for Disease Control Information Is Difficult: A Study of The Awareness, Knowledge and Perceptions of Nigerians Hesitant Towards COVID-19 Management by NCDC in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 6001-6008
Author(s):  
Mohammed Abdullateef ◽  
◽  
Beatrice Okonkwo ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Control ◽  
Mixed Method ◽  
Government Agency ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Control Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Public Health Institutions ◽  
Health Institutions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

As the world battles the novel Coronavirus pandemic ravaging lives and destroying economies, many nations have entrusted the detection, handling and management of confirmed coronavirus cases to their leading public health institutions. For Nigeria, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), charged with the said responsibility, faces a worrisome myriad of backlash from citizens' who regard their daily update of confirmed cases as misleading. In this survey, the researchers purposively study this category of sceptic individuals to understand their level of awareness of the virus and their perceptions about the government agency, to determine the factors responsible for the lack of confidence in the reportage, and how their confidence level may be boosted. The study adopted a mixed-method to recruit some 425 respondents that fit the profile of 'those who lack confidence in the NCDC daily reports'. Findings revealed that even the aware, educated, and high-income Nigerians equally constitute those with misperceptions and scepticism about the NCDC. Key reasons for the distrust include inconsistent reporting, secrecy about patients' database, and perceived corruption tendencies. Recommendations based on the findings call for increased openness and access to compelling information about activities to curtail the infection, especially transparency in treatment and budget spending.

scholarly journals The Socio-Economic Ramifications of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case of Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
◽  
Rosemond Sam-Quarm ◽  
Richmond Sam-Quarm ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel, dreaded, disruptive, and disastrous Covid-19 pandemic took the world by storm in January, 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic in Ghana is part of the worldwide coronavirus disease caused by “severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2)”. On 12th January, 2020 the World Health Organisation (WHO) confirmed that the novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness that affected a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. This was reported to the WHO on 31st December, 2019. On 11th March, 2020, WHO declared the novel Covid-19 a global pandemic (Graphic Online, 2020a). It is worthy to note how the Government of Ghana, political parties, citizens, scientists and academia, corporate entities, faith based organisations, traditional rulers, have offered varied forms of interventions to combat the scourge. The Theoretical Framework of this research was underpinned by the Theory of Epidemics, the Agency Theory, the Rational Choice Theory, and the Stakeholder Theory. We conducted a cross-sectional research through non-probability and purposive sampling with 250 respondents. We also employed face-to-face interviews, structured closed-ended and open-ended Questionnaires (Braun and Clarke, 2012; Denzin, 2017), which were administered online through email application via Google Forms. One of our major findings was that with the approval of Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine by the UK’s MHRA on 1st December, 2020 (Graphic Online, 2020b); and subsequently by the US FDA a week later on 8th December, 2020 (Graphic Online, 2020c), all governments around the globe in general, but Africa in particular, must make conscious efforts backed by adequate budgetary allocations to secure maximum quantities of the vaccines for their vulnerable teeming population.

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