scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomics Factors and Political Regimes on Fluctuation in Number of IPOs in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol V (II) ◽  
pp. 60-74
Author(s):  
Fazli Raheem ◽  
Shehzad Khan ◽  
Muhammad Faizan Malik
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Military Regime ◽  
Democratic Regime ◽  
Political Regimes ◽  
Tobit Regression ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the study is to determine the factors that fluctuate the numbers of IPOs (NIPOs) issued in Pakistan from 1992 to 2017. Firstly, the study examined the impact of macroeconomic factors such as GDP, Consumer Price Index (CPI), market return, Industrial production index, market volatility, and political stability on the NIPOs. Secondly, the study determined the impact of political regimes (i.e. democratic regime and military regime) on the NIPOs. The censored Tobit regression model is used to determine the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The study found that economic growth positively influences the NIPOs over time in Pakistan; however, market returns, inflation negatively affected the NIPOs. The study further found the number of IPOs shows an overwhelming increase in the military regime, contrary to the democratic regime.

scholarly journals Are Kuwaiti Stock Returns Affected by Fluctuations in Oil Prices?

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Salem Alshihab ◽  
Nayef AlShammari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

This paper examines the impact of fluctuations in the price of oil on Kuwaiti stock market returns for the month-to-month period of 2000 to 2020. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, the error correction model (ECM), and various cointegration test techniques were used to examine the estimated model. In an oil-based economy like Kuwait, the exposure to oil prices seems to affect the performance of the country’s stock market. Our main findings related to the long run showed that the price of oil is cointegrated with stock market returns. Interestingly, our ECM examination confirmed that changes in Kuwaiti stock market returns are only affected by oil price fluctuations in the short run. Further strategies are needed to better stabilize Kuwait’s capital market. This equilibrium can be achieved by pursuing more stability in other macroeconomic factors and providing a solid legal independence for the country’s financial market.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Factors as a Predictor of Stock Market: Empirical Evidences from India, U.S. and U.K.

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S10) ◽  
pp. 743-751
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study investigated the impact of Macroeconomic variables such as: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Foreign-exchange reserves (also called forex reserves or FX reserves), International Crude Price (CP) on selected stock market, namely Indian Stock Market (S&P BSE SENSEX (BSE 30) index, S&P CNX Nifty index (NIFTY 50), London Stock Exchange (Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index (FTSE 100) and New York Stock Exchange Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow 30). The data sets of all variables have been considered from April, 2001 to March, 2018 on a monthly basis. The study reveals long run relationship among the variables and the results of Granger Causality test reveals unidirectional, bilateral relation (Feedback) and exogeneity (Independence) among the variables.

scholarly journals Tax Policy and Foreign Direct Investment: A Regime Change Analysis.

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 84-98
Author(s):  
Onome Christopher Edo ◽  
Anthony Okafor ◽  
Akhigbodemhe Emmanuel Justice
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Military Regime ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Tax Policies ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

Objective – Tax policies play significant role in the direction of foreign direct investments. We investigate the proposition that tax policies enacted by military and democratic regimes differ on the influence the foreign direct investments. Methodology/Technique – Our hypotheses are tested using the error correction model as we compare the impact of tax policies on flow foreign direct investments in Nigeria between two dispensations: military rule from 1983 to 1999 and democratic rule from 1999 to 2017. Panel data between 1983 and 2017 were obtained from the databases of the World Bank, Central Bank of Nigeria and the Federal Inland Revenue Services. The explanatory variables include company income tax, value added tax, tertiary education tax and customs and exercise duties. Findings – The study reveals that tax variables during the military regime exerted more explanatory power of 79% compared to the civilian administration of 66% with respect to the impact of corporate taxes on FDI. The effect of company income tax on FDI was more pronounced during the military regime than in the civilian regime. FDI had a higher degree of convergence during the military regime compared to civilian rule, and this is vital for policy assessments and comparison. Novelty – We bring to light new evidences on the effects of taxes polices on FDI. Type of Paper: Empirical Keywords: Corporate taxes; Tax Policies; Foreign Direct Investments; Error Correction Model; Military regime; Civilian regime. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Edo, O.C; Okafor, A; Emmanuel, A. (2020). Tax Policy and Foreign Direct Investment: A Regime Change Analysis., J. Fin. Bank. Review, 5 (3): 84 – 98 https://doi.org/10.35609/jfbr.2020.5.3(3) JEL Classification: E22, F21, H2, P33.

Macroeconomic factors and stock returns: Evidence from the emerging market of Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 16-20
Author(s):  
Muhammad Asad Saleem Malik ◽  
Saher Touqeer ◽  
Shumaila Zeb
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns of Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka for the period of 1997-2014. GMM approach is used to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns. Variables of the study were T-Bills, Exchange Rate, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Production Index (IPI). The results of study show that T-bills rate has significant negative impact while Exchange rate has a significant positive impact on the Stock Returns of the study period.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the German Stock Market: Evidence for the Crisis, Pre- and Post-Crisis Periods

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaan Celebi ◽  
Michaela Hönig
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
German Government ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
German Stock ◽  
The Impact

Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible. This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic factors, German government bond yields, sentiment and other leading indicators on the main German stock index, namely the DAX30, for the time period from 1991 to 2018. Using a dataset on 24 factors and over a timeframe of about 27 years, we found evidence that across most subsamples, the Composite Leading Indicator (OECD), the Institute for Economic Research (ifo) Export Expectations index, the ifo Export Climate index, exports, the Consumer Price Index CPI, as well as 3 y German government bonds yields show delayed impacts on stock returns. We further found that the delayed impact of the constituents of the monetary aggregate M2 on stock returns changed direction between the crisis and post-crisis periods. Overall, the results illustrate that in the crisis period a larger number of factors and economic indicators had significant impacts on the stock returns compared to the pre- and post-crisis periods. This implies that in the post-crisis period a macro-driven market prevails.

scholarly journals Dynamic modeling of macroeconomic factors influence on portfolio investment flows in countries with emerging markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-380
Author(s):  
Svetlana V. Doroshenko ◽  
◽  
Evgenya V. Lapteva ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: the impact of pull or push factors on capital flows has become an especially relevant issue due to the increasing importance of emerging countries in the growth of world welfare. Objectives: to identify the impact of global and domestic economic factors on portfolio capital flows to emerging markets. Methods: the work is based on applied statistical and econometric methods of regression analysis. Panel regression estimation was carried out by two-step least squares methods (instrumental variables), generalized method of moments according to the methodology of Arellano–Bond and Arellano–Bover/Blundell– Bond. The study contains a total of 2,240 observations. Results: two hypotheses were put forward: (1) global indicators of USA monetary policy have a greater impact on the inflow of portfolio investments in developing countries in crisis years than domestic factors; (2) the difference between the receiving country’s interest rate and the US rate has the most significant effect on the inflow of portfolio investment to emerging market economies among the domestic factors. The impact of the factors on portfolio investment flows was assessed using macroeconomic data for 28 developing countries, based on quarterly observations for the period 2000–2019. Conclusions: there is empirical evidence that global factors are more important in times of crisis than specific country ones. The second hypothesis was not confirmed. It was revealed that the flows of portfolio capital are most influenced by the level of international reserves and domestic political stability in the country.

Mobilization and Moderation in Brazil

2020 ◽  
pp. 128-144
Author(s):  
Jonathan C. Pinckney
Keyword(s):  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Transition To Democracy ◽  
Democratic Regime ◽  
Military Dictatorship ◽  
Civil Resistance ◽  
The Third ◽  
Constitutional Protections ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

This chapter presents the third and final case study of civil resistance transitions (CRTs) and the impact of the challenges of mobilization and maximalism in CRTs. The case examined is the transition to democracy in Brazil in the 1980s following the Diretas Ja campaign against Brazil’s military dictatorship. The case study finds that high levels of social and political mobilization, combined with low levels of maximalism, facilitated a successful transition to democracy in Brazil. Civil society groups that fought against the military dictatorship continued their activism during the transition, pushing for progressive constitutional protections and fighting against corruption. The result is a robust, though imperfect democratic regime.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Stock Market Uncertainty: Some Further Evidence From Pakistan

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150014
Author(s):  
Tariq Aziz ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Sheraz Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Impact

The paper provides an updated evidence of the linkage between stock market and macroeconomic factors in Pakistan. The sample period is from January 2011 to November 2017. Macroeconomic variables used are money supply, exchange rate, treasury bill rate, inflation and industrial production. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have been used to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on stock market return and stock market volatility. Findings suggest that macroeconomic factors have an impact on stock market volatility. The fluctuations in inflation and money supply negatively influence the volatility of stock market returns. In contrast, industrial production positively affects the fluctuations of stock market returns. The findings are important for shareholders, investors, regulatory authorities and policymakers.

scholarly journals MACROECONOMICS INDICATORS AND BANK STABILITY: A CASE OF BANKING IN INDONESIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 431-448
Author(s):  
Norzitah Abdul Karim ◽  
Syed Musa Syed Jaafar Al-Habshi ◽  
Muhamad Abduh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Bank Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides new empirical evidence of the bank stability in relation to the macroeconomic indicator of Indonesia. The bank stability is first calculated using Z-score, and then regressed using Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model on the macroeconomic variables i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in US dollar, Interest rates (IR) in percentage and Consumer Price Index (CPI). To analyse further the long run relationship and the impact of bank stability, Cholesky standard deviation shock to the model, ARDL and Impulse Response Function (IRF) are used. These ARDL and IRF are carried out independently and repeated over data for three different models: (i) the commercial banks model, (ii) Islamic banks model, and (iii) the overall banking industry model. The empirical findings suggest long run relationship between the stability of commercial banks and macroeconomic factors. The findings also suggest the long run relationship between the stability of overall banking industry and macroeconomic factors. However, there is no evidence of long run relationship between the stability of Islamic banks and macroeconomics factors. Nevertheless, this finding is subject to the limitation of data, on the number of Islamic banks included in the test. The sample of Islamic banks was 5 banks from a total of 10 Islamic banks, due to insufficient data, as compared to the larger number of commercial banks taken into, as the sample.

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