scholarly journals Evidential Analysis of Terrorism and I-VEO Knowledge Matrix in the Context of Security as Pure Public Good: The case of Pakistan from 1990 to 2010

2021 ◽  
Vol VI (I) ◽  
pp. 62-73
Author(s):  
Aziz Ahmed ◽  
Nagina Gul ◽  
Hussan Ara Magsi
Keyword(s):  
Public Good ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Ceteris Paribus ◽  
Pure Public Good ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Global Terrorism Database ◽  
Defence Expenditure

The case of Pakistan has presented if security provision is a pure public good in the light of the I-VEO Knowledge Matrix hypotheses. Evidential analysis of the data from 1990 to 2010 from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) suggests that terrorism incidents are not reduced with the increase of public expenditure on defence, and instead, more fatalities and injuries are witnessed during the years. The analysis is based in isolation to terrorist attacks, defence expenditure and relating hypotheses of Influential Violent Extremists Organization Knowledge Matrix (I- VEO Knowledge Matrix) and counterterrorism operations, at ceteris paribus. The I-VEO Knowledge Matrix shows there is a lack of a comprehensive set of strategy based on the collection of relevant hypotheses more productive than the existing and likely less effective counterterrorism strategies to ensure security provision as a pure public good in the case of Pakistan

scholarly journals Local alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS, and insurgents

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (42) ◽  
pp. 20898-20903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao-Li Chuang ◽  
Noam Ben-Asher ◽  
Maria R. D’Orsogna
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Collaborative Relationship ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Near Repeat ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

We study the spatiotemporal correlation of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and local insurgents, in six geographical areas identified via k-means clustering applied to the Global Terrorism Database. All surveyed organizations exhibit near-repeat activity whereby a prior attack increases the likelihood of a subsequent one by the same group within 20 km and on average 4 (al-Qaeda) to 10 (ISIS) weeks. Near-response activity, whereby an attack by a given organization elicits further attacks from a different one, is found to depend on the adversarial, neutral, or collaborative relationship between the two. When in conflict, local insurgents respond quickly to attacks by global terror groups while global terror groups delay their responses to local insurgents, leading to an asymmetric dynamic. When neutral or allied, attacks by one group enhance the response likelihood of the other, regardless of hierarchy. These trends arise consistently in all clusters for which data are available. Government intervention and spillover effects are also discussed; we find no evidence of outbidding. Understanding the regional dynamics of terrorism may be greatly beneficial in policy making and intervention design.

Terrorist Attacks Targeting Police, 1998–2010: Exploring Heavily Hit Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-278
Author(s):  
Jennifer C. Gibbs
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Common Thread ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global Terrorism Database ◽  
Scholarly Attention

With over 14% of all terrorist attacks since 1970 targeting law enforcement, terrorist attacks on police is a problem in need of scholarly attention. Police serve as symbolic targets of the government and strategic targets of terrorist attacks, yet we know little about such attacks. This article explores terrorist attacks targeting police in heavily hit countries, drawing from the Global Terrorism Database. While Iraq and India have the most terrorist attacks targeting police, these countries also have a high number of terrorist attacks against all targets. To account for the total number of terrorist attacks, proportions are explored, finding Macedonia, Russia, and Georgia have the highest proportions of terrorist attacks targeting police between 1998 and 2010. A common thread among these heavily hit countries is a rapidly changing governing regime coupled with societal schism—in other words, these countries seem to share low governmental legitimacy. Implications for future research are discussed.

There Can Be No Compromise: Institutional Inclusiveness, Fractionalization and Domestic Terrorism

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 541-557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis M. Foster ◽  
Alex Braithwaite ◽  
David Sobek
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Social Mobilization ◽  
Domestic Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Small Minority ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

Research on terrorism in democracies borrows from the literature on civil war and rebellion to argue that more proportional representation decreases the likelihood of terrorist violence. However, theories of broader social mobilization may be ill-suited to predicting the occurrence of terrorism. This article proposes that proportionalism's institutionalization of small minority groups as legitimate but relatively insignificant political actors leads to militancy. Analyses of the Global Terrorism Database on domestic terrorist attacks across all democracies in 1975–2007 provide broad support for this argument. The presence and greater degrees of proportionalism are significantly associated with greater levels of domestic terrorism when ethnic fractionalization within a given society increases. Moreover, domestic terrorism increases as the number of small parties represented in the legislature increases.

scholarly journals Terrorism and emergency constitutions in the Muslim world

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332110124
Author(s):  
Christian Bjørnskov ◽  
Stefan Voigt
Keyword(s):  
Muslim World ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Discretionary Power ◽  
Specific Group ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Terrorist Activity ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global Terrorism Database ◽  
Terrorist Events

Previous research has indicated that constitutionalized emergency provisions effectively constrain the behaviour of democratic governments subsequent to terrorist attacks. In this article, we ask if this is also true for autocratic governments. Are non-democratic governments equally subject to constitutionalized constraints regarding their reactions to emergencies and particularly to terrorist attacks? To answer the question, we analyse the behaviour of a specific group of predominantly autocratic governments that are particularly subject to frequent terrorist incidents, namely the states that are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Employing data on terrorist activity from the Global Terrorism Database and constitutional data from the Index of Emergency Powers, we estimate the association between constitutionalized constraints and terrorist attacks in a dataset covering 48 member-states of the organization observed annually between 1970 and 2014. As hypothesized, we find that emergency constitutions that politically make it relatively cheap for governments to declare a state of emergency are more likely to be invoked. In addition, we find that governments are more likely to increase repression after terrorist events when the constitution allocates more discretionary power to the government in emergencies. Our evidence thus suggests that emergency constitutions also impact on the behaviour of largely autocratic governments.

scholarly journals The impact of the terrorism on North African tourism

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1081-1087
Author(s):  
Florentina-Stefania Neagu
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
North African ◽  
Data Bases ◽  
Total Contribution ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
The North ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

AbstractTourism is one of the most important sector of the national economy and in the same time is the main reason for which the tourists visit the North African states. In 2015, the total contribution of North African tourism represent 10.8% from GDP registering an increase of 1.4% compared to 2014, also the contribution of tourism to employment was 10.4 % in 2015. But this increase was affected by the terrorist attacks in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. According to Global Terrorism Index for 2016, these countries are in the ranking of states with the highest impact of terrorism. Security situation in 2015 is the following: 947 incidents, 1198 deaths, 1603 injured, 264 property damages. This situation greatly influences the decision of tourists to travel in these countries. For demonstrate what is the impact on terrorism in this region have been analized the data bases of World Travel and Tourism Council, Council and Foreign Relations and Global Terrorism Database for the period 2010-2015. If the terrorist attacks continue in the next years not only the tourism will be affected but also the activities of its associates.

scholarly journals Quantitative Research on Global Terrorist Attacks and Terrorist Attack Classification

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueli Hu ◽  
Fujun Lai ◽  
Gufan Chen ◽  
Rongcheng Zou ◽  
Qingxiang Feng
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Terrorist Organization ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

Terrorist attacks are events which hinder the development of a region. Before the terrorist attacks, we need to conduct a graded evaluation of the terrorist attacks. After getting the level of terrorist attacks, we can fight terrorist organizations more effectively. This paper builds rating models for terrorist attacks, hidden or emerging terrorist organization classification discovery models, terrorist organization alliance network models and more, through quantitative research of the Global Terrorism Database, which solved the event classification. Through studying relevant literature and the variables of the Global Terrorism Database, this paper sorted out 25 observation variables related to the impact level (level of harm) of terrorist attacks. By establishing a mathematical model of factor analysis, 11 factors related to the impact level (level of harm) of terrorist attacks were constructed, and the variance of the contribution of each factor was used as the weight to calculate the comprehensive rate of the impact level of each terrorist attack. Finally, K-means clustering method is used to cluster and analyze the comprehensive rate of impact level, and the top 10 terrorist attacks with the highest impact level in the past two decades were obtained.

scholarly journals Introducing Extended Data on Terrorist Groups (EDTG), 1970 to 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongfang Hou ◽  
Khusrav Gaibulloev ◽  
Todd Sandler
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Terrorist Group ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Start Date ◽  
Group Data ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

This article introduces an extended data set of 760 terrorist groups that engaged in attacks during 1970 to 2016. Unlike most extant group data sets, the extended data on terrorist groups (EDTG) is not tied to terrorist groups and attacks listed in the RAND terrorism data; rather, EDTG is linked to terrorist groups and attacks given in the Global Terrorism Database. Terrorist groups’ variables in EDTG include ideology, main goals, start date, duration, base country, attack diversity, peak size, alternative endings (if relevant), and others. We display interesting features of EDTG through a series of tables and figures. Our EDTG-based survival analysis is at odds with some of the literature: for example, the demise of a leader and a larger share of transnational terrorist attacks increase the group’s odds of failure. After 2001, religious terrorist groups are more resilient than those with other ideologies. We also analyze terrorist group lethality and productivity.

scholarly journals Quantitative Analysis of Global Terrorist Attacks Based on the Global Terrorism Database

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7598
Author(s):  
Zhongbei Li ◽  
Xiangchun Li ◽  
Chen Dong ◽  
Fanfan Guo ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

Terrorist attacks have become a serious source of risk affecting the security of the international community. Using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), in order to quantitatively study past terrorist attacks and their temporal and spatial evolution the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to classify the degree of damage from terrorist attacks. The various factors influencing terrorist attacks were extracted and represented in three dimensions. Subsequently, using MATLAB for analysis and processing, the grading standards for terrorist attacks were classified into five levels according to the degree of hazard. Based on this grading standard, the top ten terrorist attacks with the highest degree of hazard in the past two decades were listed. Because the characteristics and habits of a terrorist or group exhibit a certain consistency, the K-means cluster analysis method was used to classify terrorists according to region, type of attack, type of target and type of weapon used by the terrorists. Several attacks that might have been committed by the same terrorist organization or individual at different times and in different locations were classified into one category, and the top five categories were selected according to the degree of sabotage inflicted by the organization or individual. Finally, the spatiotemporal evolution of terrorist attacks in the past three years was analyzed, considering the terrorist attack targets and key areas of terrorist attacks. The Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa were predicted to be the regions that will be most seriously affected by future global terrorist events. The terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia are expected to become more severe, and the scope of terrorist attacks in Africa is expected to widen. Civilians are the targets most at risk for terrorist attacks, and the corresponding risk index is considerably higher than it is for other targets. The results of this research can help individuals and the government to enable a better understanding of terrorism, improve awareness to prevent terrorism and enhance emergency management and rescue, and provide a solid and reliable basis and reference for joint counterterrorism in various countries and regions.

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